Ballgame’s Points

It had to be this way.

Four years ago the Patriots played with fire in the desert and got burned. It only got worse after that.

Fans who watched Bernard Pollard crush Tom Brady’s knee before the 2008 season - ie the original Campaign of Revenge - had a heartbeat rightfully questioned whether they would ever again see Brady play for that stubbornly elusive fourth ring. Home playoff losses to the Ravens and Jets nudged that possibility closer to a reality.

Yet somehow, someway, on the strength of one of the least convincing and most peculiar 10-game win streaks one could possibly imagine, this latest Patriots installment has managed to claw its way to back to the big one. En route, Brady and Co. have snuffed out nearly every team that halted them in Januarys past.

And so we arrive in Indianapolis, the final stop on the Patriots Campaign of Revenge 2011. One last batch of demons to exorcise.

A Lombardi Trophy will go to the winner of Sunday night’s game, but it is what that trophy represents that sets Super Bowl XLVI apart from the others that have preceded it.

Back in early 2005, Brady had just led New England to its third title in four years. A 27-year-old, fourth-year starter, the former sixth-round pick could have decided to become a cabdriver and still would have been as ironclad of a first-ballot Hall of Famer as there ever was.

Fortunately, Brady stuck to the football thing, winning more in a 10-season span than any quarterback before him. Included in the run were four seasons of 14-plus victories (the other 31 teams combined had five in that span), nine AFC East titles, six AFC Championship games and, now, five Super Bowls.

Brady always talks about leaving points on the board, a perfectionist mentality that is no doubt also a metaphor for how he views his own career. Just how many wins - and titles - have been left on the board is a question that must both haunt and drive him.

From the Champ Bailey play in Denver in 2005, to Troy Brown running an out when he was supposed to run an in against the Colts in the AFC Championship in ‘06, to the slew of plays the Patriots wish they had back in The One That Got Away in the desert four years ago …

That said, to scorn an ill-fated play is to defy the breaks of the game and bounces of the ball that make football such thrilling entertainment. It’s a little like moaning about missing the final Powerball number. It’s a tough break, for sure, but the ball still had to bounce the right way on the first five in order for you to have a chance at the jackpot.

For the Patriots, there was The Tuck Rule Game, without which there is no foundation on which a dynasty is built. There was Drew Bennett allowing a fourth-down catch to slip through his hands in the final minutes of a frigid and nail-biting divisional game against the Titans in 2004. And no one will soon forget the back-to-back stomach punches endured by the Ravens in the persons of Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff two weeks ago.

The bounces of the ball went the Patriots’ way from 2001-04, and then not at all after that until recently. They’ve certainly aided the Giants, too, most notably this postseason in the NFC Championship against San Francisco, when the ball glanced off the knee of Niners return man Kyle Williams on a pivotal fourth-quarter punt with San Francisco leading, 14-10.

Had Williams steered clear of the football, the Patriots may well have been meeting the 49ers - a more favorable matchup than the Giants - in Super Bowl XLVI. As crazy as it sounds, snagging that seemingly unattainable fourth ring at the expense of San Francisco would have left something to be desired.

Brady has lost five games in 22 tries in his postseason career. One apiece to the Broncos, Colts, Giants, Ravens and Jets. In each of those instances of playoff failure, a team got the better of him on that day. But never twice. Brady beat Indy in 2003 and ‘04, the Jets in ‘06 and Denver and Baltimore last month.

That leaves but one vendetta to be waged.

What is often lost in the gut-wrenching conclusion to the 2007 season is how surreal the ride actually was until the very end. That outfit was, and will remain, one of the greatest of all time. But the reality is it cannot receive its rightful due until, and unless, Brady is able to snatch a ring away from the team that snatched immortality away from him.

By the time Sunday night turns in Monday morning, Brady’s legacy will be stamped. That is not to say the book is closed on the Patriots after Super Bowl XLVI. This New England team is going to get better before it gets worse.

However, for Brady, the book will essentially be closed. He will either have won his record-tying fourth Super Bowl by charging through the last remaining team with which he had a score to settle - and therefore finally elevate all the positives of the 18-1 season - or he will see his legend marked by a permanent asterisk. An asterisk denoting the fact that despite all the winning he has done (and will likely continue to do), all the records and all the history, there was one quarterback and one team that flat-out had his number.

Yes, the task is daunting. The stakes are seismic.

But just know. It had to be this way.

A few leftover thoughts from a divisional weekend that went more or less by the book in the AFC while veering wildly off script in the NFC. Let’s focus on the latter.

History will determine where 49ers 36, Saints 32 ranks among the all-time classics. In terms of dizzying back-and-forth finishes to an NFL playoff game, it’s right there at the top of the list. Twenty-eight points and four lead changes in the final 4:02 after nearly 56 minutes of extremely physical, defense-dominated football made for a game the likes of we which we may not see again for a very long time.

While the Saints were in excellent shape to steal a berth in the NFC Championship game after clawing back from a 17-0 deficit to take their first lead (24-23) with four minutes remaining while simultaneously deflating what had been a raucous crowd, both defenses were running on fumes by that point, which laid the groundwork for the track meet that ensued over the final 242 seconds.

Defenses traditionally tire in the waning minutes of bone-crushing bloodbaths like the one these teams waged at Candlestick Park. In a game that featured everything ranging from extracurriculars to flat-out brawls after nearly every whistle, it becomes a lot easier to understand why neither defense had anything left in the tank for the furious finish. The last team with the ball was going to win, and the 49ers were that team …

The Packers didn’t merely lose to the Giants, they were completely undone. If it weren’t for some questionable calls and Aaron Rodgers’ ability to scamper for multiple first downs in key situations, the game could have been even more lopsided than the 37-20 final score.

The second-quarter fumble by Greg Jennings that was correctly called on the field, incorrectly changed to a down by contact after an officials conference and inexplicably upheld after a Giants challenge was an egregious officiating error. That sequence led to a Green Bay touchdown that tied the game at 10 early in the second quarter. Then in the fourth quarter with the Giants leading, 30-13, a phantom roughing the passer call on Osi Umenyiora gave Rodgers a new set of downs that enabled the Packers to ultimately strike for a touchdown that made the game close again.

In addition to the officiating nightmare and Eli Manning picking apart the Green Bay defense, what stuck out most was how New York’s defense defied conventional wisdom in stopping Rodgers and the Packers’ offense. Going into the game, the consensus was that the only way the Giants could slow Rodgers was via their front four. Yet for much of the first three quarters, the Green Bay offensive line did its job against the Giants’ pass rush. Rodgers frequently had all day to throw but no one to throw to, which forced him into seven scrambles for 66 yards. Six of those carries went for first downs, which were all that that prevented the game from turning into a laugher. While Rodgers also uncharacteristically missed his target on more than one occasion, the play of the Giants’ secondary and linebackers in coverage was exceptional …

Now, on to championship weekend, which is guaranteed to spit out a headline-grabbing Super Bowl, be it Harbaugh Bowl II (Ravens-49ers), a 2000 Super Bowl rematch (Ravens-Giants), a Tom Brady extravaganza (Patriots-49ers) or a seismic and end-all sequel (Patriots-Giants).

With everything on the line, matchups will be key. Here are three matchups from each championship tilt that will go a long way toward determining the AFC and NFC champs.

AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at New England Patriots (14-3)

Key Matchup No. 1 - Matt Light vs. Terrell Suggs

When the Ravens tuned up the Patriots in a 2009 wild-card game, Suggs abused Light, and consequently, Tom Brady. The likely 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year has made no secret of his feelings for Brady (they are not warm), and thus will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. While the Patriots will attempt to slow Suggs with chips of their own (likely from tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski), it is incumbent on Light to do his job and keep T-Sizzle away from his quarterback.

Key Matchup No. 2 - Patriots linebackers vs. Ray Rice

Anyone who recalls the ‘09 playoff game knows Rice had a field day from the outset against New England, his 83-yard touchdown run on the game’s first play from scrimmage setting the tone for a 22-carry, 159-yard, two-touchdown performance. The Patriots’ linebackers will need to have their heads on a swivel to keep track of the diminutive and explosive Rice, who is often tough to pick up behind a mountain of offensive and defensive linemen. Brandon Spikes - whose return has been key for the New England run D - must repeatedly punish Rice. If he can do that, the pressure will shift to quarterback Joe Flacco, which gives the Patriots the advantage.

Key Matchup No. 3 - Tom Brady vs. Ed Reed

There may be no love lost between these teams, but between Brady and Reed there is no doubt a deep-seated mutual respect. Reed remains one of the greatest freelancing safeties in the history of the game. Brady has consistently lit up opposing defenses between the hashmarks, his receiving trio of Hernandez, Gronkowski and Wes Welker proving to be virtually impossible to cover in open space. Whoever prevails in the cat-and-mouse game between Brady and Reed will be leading his team to Indianapolis.

Bottom Line: In 2009, Brady didn’t have Welker (injury) or his tight ends (college). As long as he is upright, the Ravens can’t contend with all three downfield.

Patriots 27
Ravens 21

NFC Championship: New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

Key Matchup No. 1 - Smiths vs. Giants offensive line

The Giants have done a fantastic job of protecting Eli Manning throughout the playoffs, but neither the Falcons nor Packers boast anything resembling the duo of defensive end Justin Smith and outsider linebacker Aldon Smith. The twin terrors combined to sack Drew Brees twice and hit him an additional nine times last week. Manning’s Achilles heel is making bad decisions in the face of a strong pass rush, which has been the calling card of the Smiths this season.

Key Matchup No. 2 - Bradshaw/Jacobs vs. Patrick Willis

Lost in the sublime play of Manning and the Giants’ defense of late has been the resurgence of the New York running game. Ahmad Bradshaw appears to be fully recovered from the foot injury that cost him the month of November and Brandon Jacobs has reprised his role as the ultimate downhill runner, the kind that evokes images of a boulder careening down the side of a mountain. With rain having pounded the Bay area all week, the Giants will need to get something from their rushing attack if they want to hold the San Francisco pass rush at bay. Willis spearheads the Niners run defense. If he is swarming to the ball and choking the point of attack, the Giants will have no choice but to become one-dimensional.

Key Matchup No. 3 - Giants kick units vs. 49ers return units

San Francisco was exemplary on special teams during the regular season, ranking first in the NFL in yards per kickoff return (27.2) and fifth in yards per punt return (12.4) while taking one of each to the house. The Giants, meanwhile, were middle of the pack in terms of return yardage allowed. They tied for 10th in the league in kickoff returns, allowing an average of 22.9 yards per, and tied for 16th by allowing 9.9 yards per punt return. If New York can battle the 49ers to a stalemate on special teams, that will be as good as a victory.

Bottom Line: It’s nearly impossible to lose a playoff game with a plus-four turnover ratio, which the 49ers almost did last week. The Giants won’t be nearly as careless with the football.

Giants 23
49ers 19

Before jumping into previews of this weekend’s divisional games, some brief postmortems on a pair of the one-and-dones from wild-card weekend …

Marvin Lewis better think long and hard before throwing a challenge flag next time he leads a team to the playoffs. The Bengals’ head coach blew both of his challenges in the first half of Saturday’s 31-10 loss to the Texans, the second straight playoff game he has been without any red flags after the intermission.

The point here is not to dissect the challenges. What’s notable is each could have been avoided if Lewis had called a timeout instead of reaching for the red flag. Timeouts carry very little significance in the first half, and they buy a coach and the guys upstairs time to look at a play before coming to a conclusion. In the case of each challenge Saturday, a few looks would have made it clear that the odds were not good for a reversal. Losing a timeout (which happens on a failed challenge anyway) is not a big deal in the first half. Losing a challenge is critical. Losing both is an early deathblow, something Lewis has managed to do in consecutive postseason games …

Not only were the Steelers banged up beyond belief, but defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s defensive game plan resulted in a monumental backfire in Sunday’s 29-23 overtime loss to Denver. By stacking the box and playing a ton of Cover Zero, LeBeau anticipated the run-heavy offense of Tim Tebow and the Broncos would be stuffed at the source and Denver would be unable to move the ball.

LeBeau underestimated how the loss of starting safety Ryan Clark would impact the Pittsburgh secondary. In a game that he was leaning uncharacteristically heavily on his safeties, putting backup Ryan Mundy on a island was not a good idea. It didn’t help that Ike Taylor played one of the worst games of his life at the most inopportune time, but LeBeau seemed like he never entertained the notion that the Denver game plan might be to try and make plays over the top of his defense …

Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

These teams met in Week 6 at M&T Bank Stadium, with the Ravens pulling away in the fourth quarter of an eventual 29-14 win. Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense moved the ball with surprising ease against the top-rated Houston defense, piling up 402 total yards. However, following an opening 97-yard touchdown march, Baltimore had to settle for field goals on five of its final six scoring drives, which kept the game close.

Houston had two things going for it that day. For one, Matt Schaub was still under center. The Texans quarterback submitted a modest performance, completing 21 of 37 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown. The key was he took care of the football, something opposing quarterbacks traditionally have lots of difficulty doing in Baltimore. Houston actually won the turnover battle, 2-0.

That won’t be happening again with T.J. Yates going into one of the more hostile environments for his first road playoff game. Yates was decent against the Bengals (11-for-20, 159 yards, touchdown), but nearly all of his completions came off play-action and he also made one terrible throw that Bengals safety Chris Crocker would have likely taken the other way for a game-tying touchdown in the third quarter had he not dropped an easy interception.

The Ravens grind inexperienced quarterbacks into the ground in the playoffs. In blowout wins over the Matt Cassel-led Chiefs in 2010 and Chad Pennington’s Dolphins in 2008, the Baltimore D forced a combined 10 turnovers (seven of which were interceptions). The Ravens did something similar to Tom Brady (four turnovers) and a house-of-cards Patriots team in 2009.

Those games were all on the road. Having obtained home-field advantage for the first time in the Flacco era and fresh off seeing the team that has thwarted their Super Bowl aspirations twice in the last three postseasons get bounced in a Mile High shocker, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are circling the wagons. The Ravens smell blood in the water.

Ravens 27
Texans 10

Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)

Two recent patterns, working in tandem, have emerged over the past few postseasons. A heavy underdog first pulls off a huge upset in the wild-card round. Then that unlikely victor, headed on the road to a rested top seed, proceeds to gain steam throughout the following week as the talking heads find a way to make a case for another odds-defying triumph.

Except that’s not what happens.

Exhibit A: 2008, the 8-8 (and formerly 4-8) Chargers knocked off the 12-4 Colts in Round 1 at home. San Diego then went into Pittsburgh as seven-point ‘dogs and found itself down 28-10 in the fourth quarter en route to a 35-24 defeat.

Exhibit B: 2009, the 10-6 Cardinals won a wild 51-45 overtime shootout with an 11-5 Green Bay team many had pegged for a Super Bowl run. Just when everyone started wondering if a second straight Super Bowl might have been in the “Cards,” the Saints blew the doors off Arizona in the divisional round, 45-14.

Exhibit C: Last year, in the grandaddy of them all, the 7-9 Seahawks shocked the world by bumping the defending champion Saints, 41-36. Like clockwork, the momentum built up throughout the week as Seattle - a 9.5 point underdog - made its way to Soldier Field for a date with the Bears. Chicago led, 35-10, with three minutes to go before the Seahawks scored a pair of garbage touchdowns in a 35-24 loss.

That brings us to Saturday night, when Tim Tebow and the miracle-working Broncos will attempt to become the latest team to spoil a Patriots season at Gillette Stadium.

Denver’s impressive victory Sunday notwithstanding, one would be remiss not to note that it came against a Pittsburgh team that was without starting center Maurkice Pouncey, safety Clark, defensive end Aaron Smith and running back Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers’ problems were compounded by an immobile Ben Roethlisberger, the early losses of the rest of their defensive line (nose tackle Casey Hampton and defensive end Brett Keisel), the above-stated ill-conceived defensive game plan and the unenviable task of playing from behind in the thin air.

Tebow made some big plays, for sure, but everything broke right for the Broncos.

Against a New England team that has the benefit of extra preparation time, tape from the teams’ Dec. 18 meeting and the return of Josh McDaniels (who drafted Tebow and star wideout Denarius Moore during his brief tenure as Broncos head coach) to the war room, the Broncos are going to be hard-pressed to give the Patriots another serious for their money.

Last month in Denver, New England was flummoxed by the Broncos’ rushing attack (167 yards in the first quarter) before settling down defensively. That allowed Tom Brady to kick it into high gear, as the Patriots ripped off 27 straight points to turn a 16-7 deficit into a blowout.

For a Patriots team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship and has made no secret that it continues to covet that elusive 60-minute performance, a fast start with no letdown appears imminent.

Patriots 38
Broncos 21

New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

A classic contrast of styles, the dominant San Francisco defense will look to slow Drew Brees and the explosive Saints offense. If the 49ers can keep this game in the high teens or low 20s, they will be in excellent shape to punch a ticket to the NFC Championship game. Alex Smith will not win a shootout with Brees.

The San Francisco D, which has been great all year, has absolutely suffocated opponents on its home turf - particularly in the red zone. The 49ers rank first in virtually every red zone defensive statistic at home, including opponents’ scoring chances per game (1.5) and touchdowns allowed (0.4).

Those numbers translate to the San Francisco defense yielding a touchdown on just 25 percent of opponents’ penetrations inside the 20-yard line. For some perspective, the Browns ranked second in the league in that category at 39 percent, putting them closer to the 17th-ranked Jets (52.4 percent).

Given that grass has served as something of an equalizer for the Saints offense - Brees is merely terrific, as opposed to superhuman, outdoors - the game figures to be relatively low-scoring and tight.

The deciding factor may very well be third downs. Specifically, New Orleans’ ability to convert them. While the Saints have averaged 27.2 points per game on the road and 25.8 points outdoors - as opposed to 41.6 in the Superdome - it has been their knack for converting third downs in bunches on the road that has helped them enjoy success.

The Saints checked in with a league-best 54.7 percent third-down conversion rate on the road in the regular season. If the 49ers defense has an Achilles heel at home, it is an inability to get off the field on third down. San Francisco allowed opponents to convert third downs at a 39.5 percent clip at Candlestick Park, 20th in the NFL.

For a team so defensively stout in its house, that kind of inefficiency in key situations could be its fatal blow. The last time the Saints played outdoors was Week 14 at Tennessee, a game that saw the Titans defense hold New Orleans to three field goals through the first three quarters. But on the strength of a 58 percent third-down conversion rate (11-for-19), the Saints struck for a pair of touchdowns late in a 22-17 win.

The 49ers defense will come out strong and hold Brees at bay for a good chunk of the game, but the Saints’ ability to come through on third down will wear San Francisco out by the fourth quarter.

Saints 24
49ers 22

New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)

The game of the weekend and the rematch everyone has been waiting for, there are no illuminating stats or hidden metrics that can paint a clear picture of Giants-Packers II.

Either the New York pass rush is going to make life miserable for Aaron Rodgers or the Packers offense is going to have its way against a banged up and beatable Giants secondary.

Whoever blinks first will be in a heap of trouble.

If Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty and Osi Umenyiora are eating Rodgers’ lunch from the opening whistle, the likely NFL MVP will start having flashbacks to Week 15, when Chiefs linebacker Tamba Hali (three sacks) took up residence in the Packers’ backfield and Kansas City held Green Bay to 315 total yards and 14 points.

In that scenario, the Giants’ front four will suddenly see a redux of Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots, which will only fuel them further.

In the alternative scenario, the Giants’ pass rush will fail to harass Rodgers, which will enable the Packers to jump out to an early lead. When - as is often the case - Green Bay plays from ahead, it not only puts pressure on the opposing offense to match scores with one of the highest-powered attacks in the league, but it also allows Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense to start inching upfield and sniffing out big plays.

Part of the reason Green Bay led the league with 31 interceptions and ranked behind only San Francisco with a plus-24 turnover differential in the regular season is because playmaking defenses have the benefit of becoming even more opportunistic when playing from ahead.

If the Giants’ pass rushers throw the first blow and Eli Manning puts points on the board before Rodgers, Green Bay’s entire defensive philosophy will become compromised. Manning’s trio of downfield threats (Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham) will have to be paid extra attention by the Green Bay secondary.

This game is so close it’s pretty much impossible to call. Sometimes you have to go with your gut. In the worst-case scenario for each team, Manning has the chops and weapons to win a potential shootout with Rodgers. Rodgers, on the other hand, simply won’t have the answer if confronted by a clicking and unrelenting Giants pass rush.

History would indicate that the Giants - as well as they have played over the past three weeks - have yet to peak. The Packers appear to have already peaked.

Giants 27
Packers 24

Wild-Card weekend is nearly here and there’s lot to break down, so let’s get right to it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at Denver Broncos (8-8)

If Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t playing with a high ankle sprain, Rashard Mendenhall wasn’t out with a torn ACL and Ryan Clark didn’t carry the sickle-cell trait, it would impossible to see this matchup ending in anything but a Pittsburgh romp.

But the Steelers are dealing with all kinds of adversity, as well as the burden of being a big road favorite in the playoffs. With the Saints’ shocking loss to the 7-9 Seahawks on the road in a 2010 wild-card game still fresh in everyone’s memory, it’s tough not to ponder the Broncos’ chances at an upset, given the circumstances.

As opposed to Seattle, which had two things going for it - a running back, Marshawn Lynch, who has a remarkable ability to get stronger as the season progresses; and a quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, who had been to a Super Bowl - Denver is afforded no such luxuries to fall back on.

Running back Willis McGahee averaged just 78.3 rushing yards over the final four games. Quarterback Tim Tebow crashed and burned during that time, fumbling seven times (four lost) and throwing five interceptions.

The Denver pass rush, spearheaded by Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, should be able to make life difficult for a hobbled Roethlisberger and keep the game close. But for a Broncos offense that scored a combined 17 points over the final two weeks against the Bills and Chiefs, it’s going to be nearly impossible to find the end zone against a Steelers defense that ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.2) and didn’t give up a touchdown in three of the last four games.

The Broncos will need a defensive or special teams score to throw a scare into Pittsburgh, which isn’t likely.

Steelers 16
Broncos 6

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at Houston Texans (10-6)

There’s always one wild-card game game featuring a team or teams that, talent-wise, are a notch below the rest of the field. Last year it was the Chiefs, who were smoked at home by the playoff-seasoned Ravens. In 2009 it was the Bengals, in ‘08 the Dolphins etc. The downfall of the so-called playoff fraud always boils down to its ability, or lack thereof, to take care of the football.

Make no mistake: Turnovers will determine the outcome of the Bengals-Texans game. Neither team protected the ball well when they met in Week 14. Houston committed four turnovers and Cincinnati two. And both teams continued to have ball security issues down the stretch. The Texans gave the football away at least once in each of their final three games, and turned it over nine times from Weeks 14-17. The Bengals have also yet to play an errorless game in that stretch, tallying six turnovers.

A closer look paints an even darker picture for the Texans. Of those nine turnovers, five were committed by T.J. Yates. The rookie quarterback threw three interceptions and lost two fumbles over the final quarter of the season, while also fumbling an additional time.

Dig a little deeper and go back to Houston’s 17-10 win over the Falcons in Week 13, a game in which Yates lost one fumble, lost a second on a strip-sack that was returned for a touchdown before a pair of bizarre offsetting substitution penalties called it back, and threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. That play was overturned because of a holding penalty, taking a second defensive score off the board for the Falcons.

Certain contests, despite the outcome, can serve as a harbinger of things to come. The Atlanta game was noteworthy in that respect.

On the flipside, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton fumbled one time and threw just one interception from Week 13 on.

Not to be lost in the mix are the issues of Texans star running back Arian Foster, who has put the ball on the ground in four of the last five games, fumbling a total of five times (three lost).

Considering either one or both of Yates and Foster will be touching the ball on every snap - or, gulp, Jake Delhomme - Houston’s recent problems taking care of the football are unlikely to suddenly vanish. Dalton may be a rookie quarterback going on the road for his first playoff game, but all the pressure is on the Texans to come through in the franchise’s maiden postseason appearance. How does Houston respond following a turnover late in a tight game that hushes an anxious crowd? The writing is on the wall for an upset.

Bengals 20
Texans 17

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7)

With the Giants, it’s a ongoing case of Jekyll and Hyde syndrome. Which team is going to show up? The one that nearly knocked off the undefeated Packers in Week 13 and followed with three stirring victories in the final four games (two over Dallas and one over the Jets)? Or the one that got flattened by the Redskins in a critical Week 15 tilt?

Anyone who is able to properly diagnose the Giants can predict how this game will play out. The Falcons couldn’t be any different than New York, in that you know what you’re getting from them. According to the number-crunchers at Football Outsiders.com, Atlanta is the most consistent team ever measured by its DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) system.

The Falcons play at a similar level week in and week out, a level that was good enough to knock off the likes of Detroit, Tennessee and Carolina, but not the Saints, Packers or Texans.

Looking at the Giants, it’s easy to finger the Redskins loss as evidence of a similar performance looming in the playoffs. But the Redskins also handily beat the Giants in Week 1, which suggests they may have simply had their number this year. The ebbs and flows of divisional rivalries can be tough to quantify sometimes.

The Giants fell victim to the most brutal of stretches from Weeks 9-13, during which they faced, in succession, the Patriots, 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers, arguably the five best teams in the NFL.

The Falcons are consistently decent but never spectacular. The Giants are better than their record and playing at home. A primary strength of both teams is their ability to throw the football. Eli Manning has a Super Bowl MVP; Matt Ryan is 0-2 in the playoffs.

Giants 27
Falcons 21

Detroit Lions (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Winners of eight straight, the Saints are blistering hot. Drew Brees has thrown 27 touchdowns and four interceptions throughout the win streak, during which New Orleans has averaged nearly 37 points per game, including back-to-back 45-point eruptions against the Falcons and Panthers at the Superdome to close out the regular season.

To underscore just how unstoppable the Saints have been, consider the following: They had 10 drives apiece in those games. Against Atlanta, those drives went touchdown, touchdown, interception, touchdown, interception, touchdown, field goal, punt, punt, touchdown. One of Brees’ picks came in the end zone and the pair of punts didn’t come until New Orleans had a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and had taken its foot off the pedal.

The Saints’ efficiency against Carolina was even more ruthless: touchdown, touchdown, interception, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, punt, downs. Brees was picked at the Panthers’ 11-yard line and the Saints had driven 63 yards to the Carolina 13 before Chase Daniel took a knee four times to conclude the game.

If any team stands a chance of hanging with the Saints in the dome, it’s the Lions. Led by a white-hot Matthew Stafford, Detroit finished the season with wins in three of its last four games. Stafford threw for 520 yards and five touchdowns in a wild Week 17, 45-41 loss to Matt Flynn and the Packers. He has averaged nearly 378 yards per game in that span, throwing 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

The Lions have made a habit of getting down big early before surging back. Detroit has overcome deficits of 13, 17, 20 and 24 points to win. Stafford has been at his best in the second halves of those big comebacks against the Raiders, Panthers, Vikings and Cowboys.

The problem with that formula is that it requires the other team to either have a quarterback prone to making multiple huge mistakes (Tony Romo, Cam Newton) or an offense that can be stopped for consecutive drives (Vikings, Raiders).

Brees won’t be gift-wrapping any turnovers and the Saints’ last 20 drives don’t bode well for a Lions defense that has allowed an average of 26.5 points and 455 yards per game over the last four, and a Stafford-led offense that tends not to get its wheels turning until the second quarter. Brees will be motoring toward San Francisco by that time if Detroit stalls out of the gate Saturday night.

Saints 41
Lions 27

Before diving headfirst into Wild Card weekend (complete game-by-game breakdown to come Thursday), let’s first take a broad view of the 2011 NFL season, one which almost didn’t happen (but not really).

1. Parity officially took hold in 2011

Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL routinely features the most turnover among playoff participants.

This year is no different, as six teams (Giants, Lions, 49ers, Texans, Broncos, Bengals) are returning to the postseason after varying hiatuses. The Lions end the NFL’s longest playoff drought (1999) while the Texans are set to play in January for the first time since entering the league as an expansion team in 2002.

But the league-wide parity runs even deeper, with eight teams having finished 8-8, the most since 2006. An additional five squads went either 7-9 or 9-7, meaning a full 40 percent of teams settled in the seven-to-nine win range.

2. A top-heavy league officially took hold in 2011

Yes, that statement is in direct contradiction to the previous one, yet for only the second time since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978, four teams reached the 13-win mark (Packers, 49ers, Saints, Patriots).

As opposed to 2007 - when the Patriots and Colts in the AFC and the Packers and Cowboys in the NFC all won at least 13 games - three of the four 13-win teams reside in the NFC this year.

Losing the conference-record tiebreaker to San Francisco means New Orleans becomes the first team in the 16-game format to win at least 13 and have to play Wild Card weekend.

3. Of the 12 playoff teams, seven are title contenders

Let’s start by crossing off the non-contenders. In the AFC, the Broncos - losers of three straight - are only in the tournament because San Diego and Oakland (both superiorly talented teams) were unable to overcome their respective mid- and late-season swoons. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records and the Texans fell flat over the final three games, the weight of the losses of Mario Williams, Andre Johnson and all of their quarterbacks too much to bear.

In the NFC, the Falcons are a classic beat-up-on-the-cupcakes and struggle-to-hang-with-the-brass team, their most notable victory coming back in October against the Lions in Detroit. The Lions, meanwhile, are too young and undisciplined to make a serious run.

That leaves the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers in AFC, and the Packers, 49ers, Saints and Giants in the NFC. Early edge in the AFC goes to New England, because Tom Brady is the only elite/healthy quarterback in the field. The NFC figures to be a dogfight from the start; while the Falcons and Lions will ultimately be overmatched, they are both better and/or healthier than any of the AFC’s bottom three. Naturally, Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champs. However …

4. Beware of the 15-1 curse

Before the 2011 Packers, only four teams had completed a campaign 15-1. The first pair (1984 49ers and 1985 Bears) finished the job and went 18-1. The most recent two, however, saw their seasons come to crashing halts before reaching the Super Bowl.

The 1998 Vikings, led by Randall Cunningham, Randy Moss and Cris Carter, were bounced by the Falcons in the NFC Championship when Gary Anderson hooked a would-be game-winning 38-yard field goal, after going 39-for-39 up until that point. And the 2004 Steelers, after snapping the Patriots’ NFL-record 21-game win streak in October, were undressed by Tom Brady and Co. at Heinz Field in the AFC Championship, 41-27.

That’s not to say the Packers are destined to fall victim to recent history, though that does bring us to …

5. Beware of the New York Giants

If Eli Manning and the Giants have proven anything, it’s that they are never to be underestimated when the deck is seemingly insurmountably stacked against them. Who can forget the colossal effort the Giants put up in a meaningless Week 17 defeat to the 15-0 Patriots in 2007, a loss that served as a springboard to a rematch in Super Bowl XLII that no football fan will ever forget.

Forget the symmetry between the identical 38-35 scores by which New York lost to New England in 2007 and Green Bay in Week 13. Forget that Manning used that Packers loss to rediscover his mojo (likewise for the New York pass rush) and lead the G-Men to (another) improbable postseason berth.

Actually, scratch that. Remember it all. And when the Giants are headed to frigid Lambeau Field in two weeks, remember it was Manning who took down the mighty Packers in Brett Favre’s Green Bay swan song four years ago.

6. The Patriots are somehow under the radar

Which is to say they are exactly where they want to be. Has a team that finished the regular season on an eight-game winning streak ever gone into the playoffs with more baggage? From an historically bad pass defense to injuries up and down the unit to multiple-score deficits faced in each of their last three contests, there is ample reason to doubt the Patriots.

That, along with an 0-3 run in the playoffs dating back to Super Bowl XLII and including home defeats to begin the last two postseasons. A combined 27-5 record over the last two regular seasons sure doesn’t buy what it used to.

While it’s crystal clear New England has its flaws, can a case truly be made that Pittsburgh - with an injured Ben Roethlisberger, no Rashard Mendenhall and a defense that ranked last in the AFC in takeaways - and Baltimore - with its persistent road woes, an unreliable Joe Flacco and a secondary that can get be beat - are in any better shape?

Apparently so.

With the NBA lockout threatening to swallow up the entire 2011-12 season - and slam shut the closing window on the Celtics’ chances at one final title run - it seems like a good time to relish the presence of football, and what has thus far been a riveting 2011 campaign. Consider the following:

• For the first time since the late 90s, the two undisputed best teams in the league (Packers, 49ers) reside in the NFC.

• Three quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, Rodgers) are on pace to annihilate Dan Marino’s single-season passing record of 5,084 yards.

• In this new era of gaudy air attacks enabled by concussion-related rules in place that essentially force defenses to play with one arm tied behind their backs, Tim Tebow is 3-1 as an NFL starter while running an offense that bears more resemblance to Navy’s than any other NFL team.

• A neck injury has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that Peyton Manning is the most important/valuable/indispensable player/coordinator/on-field general to his team in the history of the sport.

Typically, by mid-November all the chatter is geared toward which squads are contenders and which are bound to regress to the mean. That’s because roughly half of the teams are at or above .500 around Thanksgiving, but in reality at least one-third of those “playoff-hopefuls” are nominally such, and nothing more (aka the pretenders).

These days, however, there are a pair of juicier subplots that need to be investigated in more detail before the annual playoff-push commences.

Reports of Patriots’ demise premature … again

By tuning up the Jets on Sunday night, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady notched win No. 117 together, passing the Don Shula/Dan Marino tandem for first on the all-time victories list. The caveat being they did it in 35 fewer games.

So how does this relate to the here and now? First, it’s officially silly to write off the Patriots in the regular season. Period. Naysayers, naturally, have free rein to trash New England for its recent playoff inadequacies. That hate is founded for a team that is a combined 41-16 (.719) in the regular season since its last postseason win. Second, to not give New England the benefit of the doubt in a division it has owned each of the last seven years Tom Brady has been on the field is shortsighted.

Now, considering the cupcake schedule the Patriots are staring at over the stretch run, it’s going to be tough to legitimately appraise what looks like, at worst, a 12-4 team. The real answers won’t come until January. But teams start to develop patterns by this time of the year, which slowly evolve into identities.

As opposed to recent New England outfits - which, let’s face it, were gifted with talent but plagued by a soft underbelly - this squad has a certain spunk to it. The next-hand-on-deck mentality that was the hallmark of the title teams has made a cameo, most notably on Sunday night, when the Patriots trotted out of a defensive backfield that had even the omniscient Al Michaels grasping at straws in pursuit of arcane nuggets. Alas, even Google only knows so much about the Sterling Moores, Antwaun Moldens and Niko Koutouvides of the world.

Lest we forget, the Patriots of yesteryear were perennial long shots and afterthoughts - rife with castoffs and perceived nobodies - but they embodied the intellect, discipline and toughness of their pair of leaders, which permeated through the ranks, 1-through-53.

Preparation and toughness, more than anything else, wins in January. And while the Patriots have already lost more games than all of last regular season, it’s been their resiliency that has kept them hanging around until the bitter end of tilts against the Cowboys, Steelers and Giants that they had no business winning (something that can’t be said of Jets 28, Patriots 14; and Browns 34, Patriots 14).

The Packers are frighteningly good

Not exactly a newsflash, I know. But for those counting at home, Green Bay has not lost since dropping a 31-27 affair in New England last December … with Matt Flynn at quarterback. Since then, it’s been two wins to close out the 2010 campaign, four more en route to a world championship, and nine straight to begin the title defense.

Between the 15-game win streak, the otherworldly play of Aaron Rodgers and the 2007 Patriots still fresh in everyone’s memories, it’s difficult not to at least start thinking about the possibility …

Here’s my two cents: With a Thanksgiving game in Detroit and a trip to the East Coast 10 days later to face a Giants squad that is well-constructed to give the prolific Packers’ offense fits and also capable of putting up its fair share of points (ie the formula for beating Green Bay), I’m not ready to say the 2011 Packers are 16-0 in the making.

Though this is without a doubt the fiercest squad since the ‘07 Patriots, and right there with the ‘01 Rams as a team you must absolutely conjure up the perfect game plan for - and execute flawlessly - to even have a chance of prevailing.

In addition to the seemingly limitless explosive offensive potential of Rodgers and Co., the much-maligned Packers defense is a good deal better than it gets credit for. When Clay Matthews is flying off the edge and forcing quarterbacks into accelerating their progressions, and when Green Bay’s All-Pro caliber corners are playing off one another and in cohesion - as opposed to bickering among themselves - that D is a unit to be reckoned with (see: Packers 45, Vikings 7)

That said, Green Bay still has the feel of a 15-1 team with the potential to go 18-1 (the right way).

There’s a reason the Celtics and Heat played on Opening Night, then again nine days later, and finally in Game No. 80. As soon as LeBron James packed up his talents and bounced out of Cleveland, the league knew this day was coming. So it charged up the hype-o-meter early, maxed out the hoopla and then let the teams go their separate ways in preparation for an inevitable May showdown.

Well, it is finally upon us. The Heat are favorites. No surprise there. The Heat Index is boiling.

As for the Celtics, they’re merely stewing. For a team that has manned the door of the Eastern Conference for three years and counting, this will be the third time in the last four series that they’re being expected to kindly arrange their things in preparation for an early summer. James - either boldly or coldly - referring to them as “lunch” is more than likely tacked on a bulletin board somewhere in their Waltham, Mass., practice facility.

On one hand, there’s no reason LeBron shouldn’t be oozing confidence. Miami finished the regular season on a 12-2 run, waxed Boston in the teams’ final meeting to secure the No. 2 seed, and chewed up the young and feisty 76ers - aka “breakfast” - in five games in Round 1.

Because of that, a good deal has been made recently of how Miami has started to “get it,” which is part of the reason most Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Celtics as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs in the series. What, exactly, that means has this scribe mystified, though.

The Heat’s blueprint for each of its 58 wins in the regular season was uniform: Ride the two - or sometimes three - best players on the court to victory, with a smattering of supplemental support. Miami often led big and continued to pour it on, as evidenced by their NBA-best plus-7.5 point differential.

Not one time did the Heat win a game in which it was losing or tied with less than 10 seconds remaining. Furthermore, James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were a combined 1-for-18 from the field in those scenarios. The one make came courtesy of James on Nov. 20 at Memphis, when he tied the game on a breakaway dunk with 5.5 seconds remaining. Rudy Gay then proceeded to un-tie it moments later.

But wait, proponents of the Heat “getting it” must be shouting, things have changed in the playoffs! Actually, they haven’t.

Not once in Miami’s four wins over Philly were they tied or trailing in the last three minutes of the game, let alone the final 10 seconds. Yet in their sole defeat, they watched a six-point lead with 1:35 remaining evaporate, culminating with James getting swatted by Elton Brand on an attempted game-tying layup with three ticks left. (For those scoring at home, make that 1-for-19.)

Success in the playoffs - when talent gaps are reduced and games are tight - hinges on two things: Late-game coaching and execution. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has proven incapable of drawing up crunch-time plays for his team (heck, he can’t even settle on which of his two stars should have the ball). And the game of improv that James and Wade have engaged in in such scenarios has failed to cover up the deficiencies of their coach.

Their late-game follies have simply underscored the importance of knowing what you want to do at the end of a game, and adding the necessary on-the-spot wrinkles to be successful on a consistent basis. It’s no secret Paul Pierce is going to have the ball in his hands at the top of the key, either isolating a weaker defender or waiting for a high pick from Kevin Garnett, on any Boston possession inside of two minutes. Or that Ray Allen will be run off a series of screens. Or a combination of the two. Great teams have their bread and butter, and dare the opposition to out-execute them.

The Celtics have proven beyond any reasonable doubt throughout their run that they are the gold standard in terms of late-game execution, while Doc Rivers has established himself as the maestro of head honchos when it comes to putting his team in a position to prevail.

In Games 1 and 2 against the Knicks in the first round, the Celtics were outplayed for the vast majority of both contests but pulled them out on the strength of their discipline and execution in the waning seconds of each game.

Naturally, they can’t play like zombies for 46 minutes against the Heat and expect to bail themselves out late, because they will have already been run out of the building. For Miami to win the series, they will have to do just that: Run the Celtics ragged.

However, that means they must find an answer for a rejuvenated Rajon Rondo, who can run faster with the ball than anyone on the court. If Mike Bibby struggles to the degree that LeBron is forced to take it upon himself to hold Rondo - a plausible scenario - the game of whack-a-Celtic will officially commence, as Miami’s defense of Pierce will be reassigned to James Jones.

The Celtics have a lot going for them - a distinct advantage at point guard and a deeper and more experienced bench, first and foremost - but the difference in this series boils down to the systemic difference between the teams: The Heat are built to blow teams out and the Celtics are built to win close games.

LeBron may be anticipating lunch, but for the third time in four years, the main course of his postseason will be Boston in Round 2.

Celtics in 6.

It was nearly a year to the day that I took to my keyboard and made a case for the middling Celtics as title contenders. Despite their head-scratching inconsistency (put mildly) over the final four months of the 2010 season, I had refused to write them off.

Contrary to the product they had put on the hardwood throughout a 27-27 finish, I could not believe the championship swagger and enduring will that had been the driving force behind all their successes since the Big Three came together had simply vanished into thin air. There was a monster lurking just beneath the on-the-surface mediocrity of that team, and it was waiting for the charged atmosphere and bright lights of the playoffs to unleash itself.

Lo and behold - and to the chagrin of a few so-called titans of the East - the Celtics showed their face in the playoffs, charging all the way to LA in June, with two chances to hang their second banner in three years. Then Kendrick Perkins tore his knee apart in Game 6 and the team ran out of gas with six minutes left in Game 7.

The offseason arrived suddenly and painfully, and the ball entered the court of Danny Ainge, who had to decide if he was going to blow up the Big Three - the “three-year window” had expired, after all. Ray Allen was in a walk year and Paul Pierce exercised his opt-out clause soon after the Finals, which made him a free agent.

With a lockout looming after the 2011 season, Ainge had the option to begin the rebuilding around Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett right then and there, or reload the chamber for one last run. His decision was loud and clear. Over the following weeks and months, he dizzied us all with an array of moves that included re-upping Allen, Pierce, Marquis Daniels and Nate Robinson while bringing aboard Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal and Delonte West.

There was to be one last rodeo for this crew, after all, for a group whose rallying cry of never having lost a playoff series with its starting five intact still held true.

With Perkins quite literally putting the Finals loss on his own two shoulders (or one busted right knee), the big man - drawing further inspiration from Wes Welker, who made a swift comeback from the same devastating injury - embarked on a furious and painstaking rehab process that stretched through the first chunk of the new season.

To a layman following the Celtics during that time, it would have been understandable to arrive at the conclusion that the team was taking on the form of a juggernaut. Ainge, obviously, is no layman. On the contrary, he’s a basketball tactician with a business acumen. And while what he saw was indeed an outfit head and shoulders above the field - Shaq’s immediate chemistry with the Core Four had the team humming along to a 23-4 start - he also saw one glaring weakness: A lack of depth on the perimeter (read: Miami Heat, playoffs). Which precipitated the blindsiding deal that sent Perkins and Robinson to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.

(Yes, a case can be made that the one player Ainge chose not to bring back last year, Tony Allen, was the first domino that ultimately culminated with the Perkins trade. In reality, though, it was Daniels’ season-ending injury that forced his hand, as the team was essentially left with nobody behind Pierce and Allen to defend Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.)

In any event, the trade tore the core apart, both literally and psychologically. Basketball teams talk about being families, brothers etc. all the time, but in reality - and in a best-case scenario - they are friends off the court who work well together on it in pursuit of a common goal. The Celtics are/were the exception to the rule. From the Rome trip to Ubuntu to their regular blowouts and reconciliations that are commonplace occurrences in families but typically fracturing catastrophes on pro sports teams, the Celtics were different.

Professional athletes are unique in that they have an ability to compartmentalize their emotions, but this team was actually too close, if that makes sense. The loss of Perkins sent them into a grieving state, the ripple effects of which were felt for weeks after the trade. It’s no coincidence that Rajon Rondo slipped into an abyss not long after his best friend departed.

Add to that Doc Rivers’ formidable task of integrating new components on the fly and you have the ingredients of a 10-11 limp to the finish line and tumble from first place in the East to the No. 3 seed.

So, the question now is can they do it all over again, can they flip that switch and finish the job that eluded them at Staples Center 10 months ago? Can they once again use the playoffs as a focusing mechanism that syncs them back up and fixated on the next 16 wins they must have?

There were two immediate conclusions I drew in the aftermath of the trade:

I was at my buddy’s place for the “The Decision”, aka King LeBron’s “Fate of the Union” address.

As Jim Gray built the suspense for the millions (and possibly trillions) of spectators glued to their television sets, we came to the following conclusion:

There was no way LeBron was going to Miami. Not if he was the alpha dog competitor he’s led us to believe he is for all these years, the guy whose drive to become the next Michael Jordan, the first LeBron James, was genuine. The guy who wanted to be as dominant and prolific as MJ on the court and as global as Jay-Z off it.

That guy, we determined, would never in a million years resign himself to the fate of second fiddle. That guy would diplomatically cut ties with the team he was loyal to but that could never provide him with an adequate second fiddle. He would apologize to the city of Cleveland, thank them for the memories and announce he was going to Chicago, where as destiny would have it, something darned close to the mid-90s Bulls would be awaiting him.

If Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng aren’t Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc, Dennis Rodman and Steve Kerr, they are surely in a neighboring area code. Tell me that assemblage of talent wouldn’t win multiple titles with a Jordan.

With a Jordan …

It was all there, tidily laid out for the King. From a booming and cosmopolitan city that could serve as his global platform to the complementary stars in place and right down to the building he would call home while adding more banners to the six already hanging in the rafters.

Instead he copped out. Actually, that’s not entirely true. The persona he conveyed and led us all to believe was really him copped out.

There is no debating that. Not when he’s joining forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on a team not called “USA”. Not when he’s coming to Wade’s city, a place that has already hoisted the Larry O’Brien trophy courtesy of a Herculean effort by the Man himself.

Americans hate being duped. And that’s exactly what LeBron did to us for the last seven years. He made Joe Sports Fan believe he was the Chosen One, he made Cleveland believe he was the Messiah.

When it didn’t work out, Joe Sports Fan couldn’t really blame him. The Celtics were a better team than the Cavaliers in 2008 and ‘10; the Magic were a better team in ‘09. That was the window for these Cavs and the complementary talent simply wasn’t sufficient. That wasn’t LeBron’s fault. It was the Cleveland front office’s fault.

But that doesn’t change the dynasty on a platter that was served up to LeBron in Chicago. He could have had everything, and all he needed to do was sign on the dotted line, look into the camera and tell the world the next chapter in the brief but storied history of the Chicago Bulls was about to be written. By LeBron James.

Instead of penning that next chapter - as well as the defining chapter of his own monolithic legacy - in Chicago, he opted to become the copy editor for the Miami Heat.

For the next six years he’s going to correct some grammar, rearrange some sentences and of course, rewrite some endings. There is no doubt a successful writer is only as good as his editor. But no matter how great the editor and how much he facilitates the success of the writer, his accolades will always be secondary.

Lots of bling is coming for LeBron. The question is will he ever come to peace with the realization that Pippen is now officially the ceiling for his legacy as a player in this league.

By now you’ve read and heard every possible breakdown of the Celtics, the Lakers, the matchups, the coaches, the benches, the trainers … hell there was probably an ESPN the Ocho feature on the water boys, given the hype of this NBA Finals.

Among the facts, figures, Xs, Os and historical nuggets …

The Celtics return the same starting five that undressed the Lakers two years ago.  Kevin Garnett isn’t the same player he was around this time in ‘08 (more on that to come); Ray Allen is still Jesus Shuttlesworth; Paul Pierce is still capable of being the best player in the world on any night; Kendrick Perkins can shut down any big man in the league one-on-one; Rajon Rondo — the weak link of the ‘08 squad that got benched midway through the Finals — is currently the best point guard in the NBA.

The Lakers return a new, better and stronger starting five than they did in Round I vs. the Celtics.  Kobe remains in his prime; Derek Fisher can always knock down daggers; Pau Gasol is tougher, more mature and more fluid in the triangle offense; Andrew Bynum, though hobbled, is at least playing this time; Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza are a wash in production but Artest has a history of defending Pierce that makes him more valuable than Ariza was.

As opposed to ‘08, the Lakers have home-court advantage and are 8-0 at Staples Center in these playoffs and 28-3 over the last three postseasons. They played the Celtics twice in that 31-game stretch and went 1-1.

The Celtics are 5-3 on the road this postseason, winning twice apiece in Cleveland and Orlando (who were a combined 76-13 at home this year).

As was the case in ‘08, the Lakers (15 titles) are trying to get within striking distance of the Celtics (17) while the Green want to bury them while the closing window of the Big Three remains open.

There are more individual legacies on the line than any Finals since the Magic-Bird days.

The Celtics, who are the third-lowest seed (No. 4) to make it to the Finals since the league went to a 16-team format in 1984, arrive having disposed of the teams with the two best records in the league.

Kobe didn’t trust his teammates enough in ‘08, but they gained championship experience last year and are a far tougher and more physical team as presently constructed. Which leads to …

X-Factor No. 1 - The Physical Factor

There is no doubt Gasol is a bigger and more physical presence than he was, not to mention a better overall player. Bynum’s size is an asset and Artest brings that bit of nasty and other bit crazy that the team lacked in ‘08. Surrounding Kobe — no one has ever disputed his singular toughness and tenacity — is indeed a wholly different cast for The Rematch. But …

The Lakers are still a Western Conference team and for the better part of a decade the West has featured an up-and-down, run-and-gun style of basketball. Ever since the redux of the Bad Boy Pistons smacked the Lakers in the mouth in 2004 and unseated the Shaq-Kobe dynasty, the give-me-your-lunch-money teams (Detroit, Miami, Cleveland, Orlando, Boston) have all resided in the East. It’s no coincidence that until last year, the Spurs were the only outfit to prevail out of the West since LA.

When you look at the teams the Lakers have gone through to get here, backyard brawls aren’t what come to mind when characterizing the series’. The Thunder were a young upstart, full of energy and buoyed by a rambunctious home crowd. Hardened they were not. The Jazz were decimated by injuries and, fully aware of the Laker punching bag they had been in recent past, rather willingly said uncle so they could start their summer vacations. The Suns — who have been known to be as rough as flannel sheets — dug down and banged admirably with a drastically undersized group. Who knows what happens if Artest doesn’t put back Kobe’s airball at the buzzer in Game 5?

So give the Lakers their due. They have grown and toughened since that ignominious defeat on the fabled parquet. But is that enough?

While the Lakers were busy taking care of the likes of Oklahoma City and Phoenix out west, the Celtics were taking the best shot each of the two biggest menaces in the game today had to throw at them. In succession. Pierce barely made it through the six-game bout with Lebron while Dwight Howard literally turned the Eastern Conference finals into an MMA event on hardwood.

To expect Los Angeles to match the physical intensity of a team that got knocked down by the two biggest bullies in the school yard only to rise up like nothing had ever happened, well that’s something we’ll all need to see to believe. That’s something that will take a more deep-seated will to win, a more lasting and insatiable hunger.

X-Factor No. 2 - The Hunger Factor

It’s impossible to argue against Kobe’s drive to win another ring, to match Magic with five and be within one of joining Michael Jordan with six. It’s no secret the Black Mamba wants to go down as the greatest of all time.

Yet he stubbornly underplays the tradition he’s a part of, the history he’s trying to make. Call it focusing on the goal at hand if you want, but that reeks of rationalization. The weight of that Lakers jersey got noticeably heavier after ‘08, and it was a kind of force that couldn’t be lifted last year, when the Celtics were too hobbled to make it back to the ball.

Kobe is surrounded by legends — from Magic to Kareem to Worthy to Cooper — who all have something in common: they beat their hated rivals. For Kobe to barely acknowledge the history and rivalry between the two teams has got to be telling. Even if he surpasses Magic and meets MJ with six rings, his legacy will include a giant asterisk if he ends up losing twice to Boston. Magic knows this. Laker fans know it. And most importantly, Kobe knows it.

Then you have the Celtics, and the Big Three. Pierce was asked after the Cleveland series how it felt to best Lebron. His response in a nutshell: “We didn’t come to training camp this year saying ‘let’s beat the Cleveland Cavaliers’. Our goal is to win championships.”

You can be certain Pierce too feels the weight and burden of history. He may have gotten his one, but he knows very well that all the great Celtic teams and players before him won multiple championships. The expectation to excel above and beyond greatness is merely a byproduct of the town he’s called home for his professional life. Daunting as it may be, it’s something he embraces.

Same goes for Ray Allen, who is 1A next to Kobe in terms of dedication to the craft and care for his body. How hungry is he to head up a few more floors (wink wink) in the Celtics Pantheon? He talked about running into Jordan after the Celtics won in ‘08. MJ told him they were lucky, that anyone could win one. He challenged him to win another and then come see him.

Then there’s Garnett. The man who was discounted after so many thousands of ferocious NBA minutes and a knee injury combined to give him a dose of reality. The truth is, if he hadn’t had Bill Russell — in addition to Doc Rivers — in his corner, he probably wouldn’t have been able to turn back the clock like he did vs. Miami and Cleveland.

Garnett reveres Russell, would probably jump off the Tobin Bridge if Russell told him he would respect him more for it. The two have formed an immensely close bond over the last few years, with the pupil gaining a wealth of knowledge from the exemplar.

Time was, an aging and underperforming Celtics contingent rallied for one last hurrah under the tutelage of a player-coach who already boasted a ring for all ten of his fingers. It was 31 years ago the Russell-led 1968-69 Celtics drove the most painful stake yet through the hearts of the then Wilt Chamberlain-led Lakers, beating Los Angeles in Game 7 at The Forum.

Kobe may want this one like he’s never wanted anything before, but this is KG’s last hurrah.

Celtics-Lakers XII. Here we go again. Again.

Celtics in seven.