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Posts from the ‘MLB 2007’ Category

Oct 25

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Believing on the Bayou: a Sox/Tigers Narrative

The whys and hows associated with extraordinary happenings in sports can only be thoroughly assessed with the assistance of hindsight. That’s the beauty of The Moment: it rips you from reality, sweeps you up, and spits you out in a state of euphoria. Reflection is not possible when living The Moment. Only realization. Realization that wherever you are and whatever the circumstances, The Moment will always be with you.

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It was Saturday morning, October 20. Curt Schilling was approximately eight hours from throwing the first pitch of Game 6 of the ALCS at Fenway. I was in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, priming myself for what I knew could end up being the most intense sports experience of my life. Not only was I preparing for another Game 6 with the Sox in the midst of another furious ALCS comeback, I was preparing to miss it.

Friends of mine had come through with dynamite tickets to the completely sold out LSU-Auburn game. A game, for LSU-faithful, that was equally as important to the Tigers as Game 6 was to the Sox. One loss for either squad meant no championship in ’07. Of course, the predicament these two odds-on favorites had to contend with was a result of their own doing. The Red Sox played uninspired baseball for three straight games against Cleveland, pushing them to the brink of elimination. LSU, meanwhile, a week after pulling a cat out of a hat against the defending-national champs, Florida, lost a back-breaker in triple overtime to Kentucky. Just like that, two teams that had visions of perfection were left with the disturbing actuality that seasons so full of haughty expectation were improbably teetering on the brink.

By mid-afternoon outside Tiger Stadium all you could see were purple tents; all you could hear was classic rock and all you could feel were Tiger-fans zoning themselves in for a showdown with…the Tigers (of Auburn). Then there was me. I was, you might say, a fish out of water. But not to most of the tens of thousands milling around me. Garbed in a yellow-LSU t-shirt and Red Sox cap, I tacitly fit in. No matter how much I appeared to belong, the ritual I was engulfed in was like nothing I had ever been a part of. Baking under the scorching southern-sun, I drank beer, ate gumbo and jambalaya, and did my best to engage the Fighting Tiger-faithful.

However, as the hours passed and the bodies multiplied, the angst started to take form. As I wrote before, a Sox-Indians ALCS was nowhere near as angst-inducing as another Sox-Yankees would have been. That said, with the way my heart was palpitating around 7:00 pm, my future cardiologist thanks Cleveland for ousting the Yankees. Because I literally could no longer sit still, I decided to make some rounds.

I crossed the street outside the stadium, and as I was peering through a steel fence into one of the cavernous tunnels that marks a point of entry, I heard a voice that seemed to be addressing me. I was already toasty enough to not really care about acknowledging the belligerence around me, but next thing I knew a guy was in front of me, asking if I knew how to traverse the fence and get to the tunnel. Before my synapses had a chance to fire, I was doused with an affront that made me see New York.

“AWWWWWW,” the guy said. “You’re a Red Sox fan!?”

“Abso-(expletive)-lutely,” I retorted.

Typical of a Yankees fan, he threw a few more barbs about my allegiances before again asking me for directions. I wish I had known where he was trying to get, so I could have then sent him in the exact opposite direction. As we were parting, I on my own and he with another couple, he turned.

“Later bro,” he said. “I’m going to meet my ex-girl and her new guy so I can beat his ass.”

“Sounds good pal,” I returned. “Maybe he’s a Red Sox fan. At least it’ll be worth it.”

Chuckling at the fact that Sox-Yanks beef really does invade all environments, I decided to test out my new headphones and old-school AM/FM walk-man, which beginning in about thirty minutes, was going to be my lifeline to Schil and the Sox. I had already researched the ESPN Radio affiliate in Baton Rouge, which was AM 1300. Tuning into the station expecting to hear some ALCS pregame, I instead heard LSU pregame. I wasn’t worried, since I knew that the LSU games were broadcast on FM. I received a call from my friends, who said they were heading into the stadium. I told them I was going to try and catch the beginning of the baseball game on TV and I’d meet them for kickoff.

I began gravitating in and out of various tailgates, accepting beers and talking to different people while waiting for some piece of Red Sox bait that I could gobble up and parlay into a first-inning viewing. Opportunity presented itself when I found myself inside a tent the size of a tractor trailer. I got talking to a guy who quickly noticed my hat, and conveyed his support for my team. He had given his tickets to his sons, so he would be sedentary for the duration, which made him one of few not attempting to imminently enter the stadium. I asked him if, by chance, I could take in the first forty minutes of the Sox game. He obliged, told me to take a seat, handed me a 22 ounce can of Natural Light, and we exchanged formal greetings. SCORE.

The game began, and still a bit wary about the lack of any pregame coverage on the radio, I decided once and for all to locate the broadcast. For the entire first half inning, during which Schilling set down the Indians, and throughout the bulk of the Red Sox half of the first, I desperately tried to find the right station, to no avail. When Manny came up with nobody out and the bases loaded, I resolved to the fact that the first inning would be it for me because this game definitely wasn’t being broadcast in Baton Rouge. An early score had never been so imperative.My palms were drenched as Manny pin wheeled the bat, while my host (whose name I had long forgot) popped open another Natty Light. Strikeout. You’ve got to be kidding me. Mike Lowell the run producer was next up. Pop out.

Kill me now.

J.D. Drew was up with two outs and the bases loaded. I was about to see a microcosm of his entire Red Sox season as my final send off into Tiger Stadium. Then, without me even knowing it, the seeds of The Moment were planted.

“Now that J.D. Drew is a ballplayer,” said the guy.

I cringed. Luckily I was too frozen in place to produce any identifiable reaction, because had I been able to, it would not have been a very polite reciprocation of my new friend’s hospitality. Drew worked the count to 3-1, which helped me temporarily emerge from my comatose state.

Just a walk, J.D. Puhhhhh-leeeease, J.D.!!! Do the one thing we’ve paid you $14 million to do this year. Just take ball fou—

—CRACK!!!!!!

“There it goes,” said the guy.

No way.

No EFFING WAY.

GRAND SLAM!!!!!! J.D. DREW!!!!!!!!!

I don’t know what I did next; that’s usually how it goes when you encounter The Moment. I think I ran around a few tents screaming at the top of my lungs before returning to my new best friend.

“THAT J.D. DREW IS A BALLPLAYER!!!!!!” I bellowed. “HE PLAYS BASEBALL!!!!!!!!”

All I needed to do before jigging my way into Tiger Stadium was solidify one piece of information for my official recollection of The Moment.

“What’s your name again, sir?” I asked the guy.

“Bobby,” he said. “Bobby Sage.”

“Thank you, Bobby Sage!” I said. “I will never forget you, Bobby Sage!!”

On that ecstatic note I headed into the stadium, visions of Drew rounding the bases consuming my mind and prickly chills stinging my spine. What greeted me was an abyss of purple and gold, over 92,000 strong, packed into an imposing structure, aptly deemed “Death Valley”. The noise level was so high even my thoughts were deafened. Our seats were in the North endzone, next to the student section. Mayhem.

Unfortunately, the ensuing Tiger-performance bore no resemblance to what inhabitants of Death Valley know to be the norm; namely dominant football. Auburn moved the ball on a seemingly-porous LSU-defense. The Tigers offense turned the ball over; receivers dropped passes. By halftime, the deficit was 17-7, and LSU fans started resembling Red Sox fans after Game 4. Specifically, there was a pervasive sense of frustration bordering on incredulity. Never, however, was there a sense of defeat among the fans, which made me feel right at home as a Sox fan.

Sure enough, the Tigers battled back, and led in the fourth quarter, 23-17, until Auburn scored a touchdown with 3:21 remaining. With the extra point, it was a 24-23 deficit for LSU. As was the case in the game against Florida (when LSU converted five out of five fourth downs), the Tigers played their best with their backs against the wall. An authoritative drive led by quarterback Matt Flynn culminated with the closest a regulation-football game can come to a walkoff victory: Flynn threw a touchdown pass to Demetrius Byrd with one second remaining to end the game.

And in the dwelling of Baton Rouge, a place that feels its heartbeat determined by the play of its Tigers, The Moment took over.

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Only after the campus of LSU stopped shaking sometime Sunday morning, and after the Red Sox formally clinched their 12th pennant later Sunday night, was I able to start to reflect on the weekend that was. The Moment, which had officially spanned more than 24 hours, three historic games and two sports, ultimately subsided. In its place came the whys and hows. Why is it that the Red Sox become unbeatable only when they’re at their most beaten? How is it that the Tigers never say die in Death Valley?

The latter is an easier question to answer: teams get scared when darkness descends on Tiger Stadium. In their last 25 Saturday night home games, the LSU Tigers are a perfect 25-0. While the Tigers have been a force in college football for the last five years (a cumulative 51-9 record and national champions in 2003), the home-field advantage on a Saturday night in Death Valley goes way back and is unparalleled in college football. Whenever 92,000 people flow into Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night, they are determined to emerge victorious; so too are the players and team they support. Many times the games are laughers. A handful of nights turn magical. What stays unchanged is a collective assertion of will over the adversary and the constancy of winning under the Louisiana stars.

As for the Red Sox, the transformation this team has undergone since 1999, from uncanny chokers to torchbearers of comebacks, is both glorious and amazing. It’s also completely impossible to diagnose. As you’ve probably read or heard somewhere by now, the Red Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 elimination games, and have seemingly instilled trepidation in the opposition to such a degree that in the future teams are actually going to dread getting up in a series against this team. Beginning in ’99, continuing in ’03, culminating in ’04, and returning in ’07, the Red Sox have changed the face of playoff baseball. Since ’99, they’ve played .823 baseball when each game could be their last, and .438 baseball (14-18) when it’s just another meaningless, non-life-or-death battle in October. Wow.

Now it’s time to look ahead. With triumph again born from tribulation, the Sox and Tigers are each ready to resume pursuit of all that matters in the eyes of their faithful: hanging a banner in ’07. Great moments are often the impetus of and the driving force behind what ultimately become great teams. On the weekend of October 20, the towns of Boston and Baton Rouge officially started believing; believing that for their teams, greatness was indeed again on the horizon.

Aug 6

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MLB Deadline/Fantasy Points

As I laid out in my April Fantasy Points most big-name player movement takes place on or around the July 31st non-waiver trading deadline. That was the case again this year, as the two biggest fish on the block, Mark Teixeira and Eric Gagne, changed uniforms mere hours before the deadline passed. Braves general manager John Schuerholz decided that two years out of NL East contention was unacceptable, and got aggressive, landing the ex-Rangers slugger. Theo Epstein of the Red Sox, meanwhile, who was skewered for standing pat at the deadline last year just a few weeks before the eventual “Boston Massacre”, also showed some fangs at the deadline, acquiring from Texas the former great-Dodgers closer, Gagne.

The goal of every general manager in April is to be a prospective buyer at the end of July. Being in that position is the most obvious indicator that the team a GM has built is a contender. However, contenders want to improve, which is why they become buyers. GMs who are looking to add talent fall into two categories. The first is for those like Schuerholz, who have assessed the landscape of their division and league, in addition to the weaknesses of their own team, and determine that one big piece can be the difference between a second place finish and a spot in the postseason. Suffice to say Schuerholz believes Teixeira will solidify the middle of the Braves lineup and give his offense the kick it needs to run with the the likes of the Mets and Phillies down the stretch. The second category is reserved for GMs of the top couple of teams in baseball, who conclude that one major addition can put their already-playoff bound teams over the top. Epstein’s rationale was that with a deep lineup and consistent rotation, sticking a guy like Gagne in between Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon would officially vault the Red Sox into “team to beat” status.

For each Schuerholz and Epstein at the end of July, there are a few GM-counterparts that find themselves either unwilling to part with prospects or unable to present a viable package to suitors, and are forced to begin the month of August with a bit of an empty feeling, reflecting and vexing about missed opportunities. Brian Cashman of the Yankees and David Dombrowski of the Tigers have assumed those roles this summer, as Cashman wanted to get a deal done for Teixeira and Dombrowski made it no secret that he coveted Gagne, given the injuries to Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Of the Tigers and Yankees, probably only one will make the playoffs this year, which means come October one of the those GMs will have to be answering some tough questions about his lack of deadline-activity (and if it’s Cashman, will probably have to be finding a new day job).

In case you opted not to take a look my original fantasy points, the gist of my argument was that like real GMs, we fantasy owners should look to emulate the modus operandi of the guys getting paid the big bucks to wheel and deal. Which is to say making a blockbuster trade early in the season is careless, because you have no bead on the vibe of your league or even your own team. By now, however, you do have that clarifying knowledge. You know the top teams in your league, and have analyzed the depth and caliber of their rosters; you see what kind of fluctuation has occurred in the standings, which is a good indicator of the prevalence of parity within a given league. And you’ve had ample time to see what your own squad has to offer. So now, with most fantasy trade-deadlines on the horizon, it’s time to start critically evaluating the big picture for your team.

Ideally you find yourself in either Schuerholz’s or Epstein’s shoes (which is a nicer way of saying hopefully your squad doesn’t stink). At this juncture a fantasy owner’s strategy is two-tiered, depending on if the league is rotisserie or head to head. If you’re part of a rotisserie league with no playoffs and only a league champion at the end, your work is waiting for you within the individual league standings. If your team has been middle to top-third of the pack throughout, chances are there is a marked imbalance between the statistical output of your offense in relation to your pitching staff. Injuries and off-years are the prime culprits for such an imbalance. Any fantasy GM of a mediocre team should be hoping for this, because it means you have a surplus of marketable commodities on one side and an underachieving/overly injured contingent on the other. If not, then you just have a very mediocre team.

I reiterate; if your team has been languishing in the middle of the standings you are in much better position if you have either a dominant offense or pitching staff as opposed to decent versions of both. Why? Because now you can afford to package one of your best players and be in line to get in return two very good players to supplant your weakness. For example, if your staff has been exemplary, say with the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren as your top three, while your offense has been woefully unproductive you can afford to trade one or even two of those big guns for some big-time offense back (guys like Carlos Lee or Ichiro or Ryan Howard). Since only about thirty percent of the season remains, the categories that you’ve been at the top of the league in shouldn’t fluctuate too much, because of the hundred games over which you’ve had that production. On the flip side you’re now positioning yourself to make a run at the categories that have held you’re team back, and if you can find a way to acquire any of those handful of late-season performers, well then, you just might be in position to make a league-leader start sweating.

As for fantasy owners who are in head to head leagues, the strategy is far more authentic. As opposed to rotisserie leagues, where the sole objective is to finish in first place, for head to head you want to finish in the top four to six of your league and gain a playoff spot. Playoff position doesn’t matter so much as building a team that is capable of winning three consecutive head to head showdowns in September. Divisional races can greatly alter strategy; that is if a team is running away with its division in September (like the Mets and Yankees last year), managers will look to rest their players over the insignificant stretch run to gear up for October. This is the double edged sword that characterizes head to head leagues; the fact that a championship-caliber fantasy team can be derailed because its players are on real teams that are contending for a World Series and care far less about September than fantasy junkies.

The good news is that it doesn’t appear there will be any team shutting it down early this season, as all divisional races are tight (no more than four games), with the exception of the AL East (Sox up seven), which will likely become closer as the season winds down. In other words this is a good year to be in a head to head league. So how does a fantasy owner’s strategy differ? First and foremost what’s happened to this point doesn’t mean a whole lot. If your team is in playoff position you have to be projecting towards September. Check out the September track records of your players and relevant competition. Who’s likely to heat up? Who’s likely to cool off? Who’s shown a tendency of going down with an injury late in the season? When making a significant deal at this stage of a head to head league, the fantasy owner who can most thoroughly answers those three questions should get the better of the deal nine times out of ten.

For the record, I’m participating in one head to head league and one rotisserie league. I’m currently in second and sixth place respectively. So naysayers, my claims are not unfounded…

Now go deal!!!!!  And enjoy all those pennant races in cyberspace.

(Prepare for a few in reality as well.)

Apr 29

Multi-Points

So much is happening in the world of sports that I’d have to write five pieces to adequately address everything that’s gone down in the past week. But that would take a long time and I don’t get paid for this (yet).

A quick recap. First the Red Sox swept the Yankees at Fenway. Then the Bulls scorched the Heat in four, making Miami the weakest defending champion in decades. Next the Sox proceeded to take two of three at Yankee Stadium. Then the Patriots traded a signed-Tom Brady jersey to Al Davis for Randy Moss (actually it was a fourth round pick). Finally the week concluded with the Golden State Warriors winning Game 4 against Dallas, to go up 3-1 against the defending-Western Conference champions.

What does all that mean? Well most relevantly it means my NBA Playoff Preview Part Deux has officially been “deaded” quicker than Turtle’s record deal with Saigon on “Entourage”. It also means I now have the chance to throw my two cents on all of it…


Yankees The Yankees have suffered through slow starts before (they were 9-13 two years ago) but what strikes me about this April is that without A-Rod the Bombers wouldn’t have won more than five games. Because with him they still only won nine!! That’s embarrassing. Just how embarrassing is anyone’s guess. But if you want to find out for yourself, and you happen to have the pleasure of being chummy with a New York fan, ask them what’s worse: watching A-Rod’s most prolific-April in history result in a record of 9-14 or living through a 5-18 start, which evidently would have been the case minus A-Rod’s superhuman effort early on. I say the latter’s less humiliating, because the Yanks starting staff is ravaged and Mariano Rivera always struggles out of the gate, so Yankee fans would at least have a viable (albeit weak) excuse for such a sputtering start. But with A-Rod hitting more home runs than some divisions over the first half of the month, to win nine out of twenty three games is just poor.


Red Sox I can count on one hand the number of players in the game today who are capable of carrying their teams for a stretch of time all by their lonesome: Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez (honorable mention: Vlad Guerrero, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran). Here’s my point: look at what A-Rod has done in comparison to what Manny has done until this juncture. Now extrapolate that s**t. Yankee fans love noting how “it’s only April”. Well for Manny April represents the calm before the storm. While A-Rod’s .355-14-34-1.297 has been the respirator on which the whole Yankees-organization is breathing, Manny’s .202-3-13-.629 has been nothing short of a comical farce. Why? Because the Red Sox have taken five of six from New York and have the best record in baseball. Manny, meanwhile, has contributed little more than a few bombs and a couple goofy exchanges with Dice-K. We all know that as the weather warms up so too does Manuel Ramirez. (Makes that 6.5 game lead seem a little more imposing, doesn’t it?)


Randy Moss Let’s make something clear right away: the Patriots don’t need Randy Moss. In the months subsequent to their collapse in the AFC Championship they signed the deep threat (Dante Stallworth) they so desperately needed, a big and physical possession receiver (Kelley Washington), and a slot-specialist (Wes Welker). Those acquisitions supplemented a receiving core that proved to be nearly sufficient enough to return to the Super Bowl. So when the opportunity arose to pull Moss out of Oakland for nothing more than a fourth round draft pick, Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli probably said, why not? Then they met with Moss, and most assuredly laid down the law cut and dry. Something along the lines of if you come here and work like every other guy on this team, you’re going to win a Super Bowl. Anything less and you’ll be out on your rear end quicker than you could ever imagine. The knock on Randy Moss has always been his incessant and inherent selfishness. Now he has the opportunity to tie his personal legacy into that of the most successful franchise of this era. Here’s one vote saying Randy chooses the Patriot-way over the highway.


Mavs-Warriors Forget the 67 wins in the regular season. Twenty percent of the Mavs’ 15 losses came against the Warriors. (That’s three.) And frankly they look exactly like the team that last June stood by, in shock and awe, as the Heat took four straight from them in the Finals. Which is to say they’re playing scared. And timid. Playing the Warriors period was already the worst-case scenario for Dallas. It’s rapidly becoming a worst-case nightmare. Including playoffs, Golden State has now taken a whopping nine of the last 11 from Dallas. The Warriors’ coach, Don Nelson, knows all of Dirk Nowitzki’s secrets. And their fans are genuinely intimidating. So how exactly are the Mavs going to pull off three straight and avoid becoming the biggest fraud in NBA history? Don’t ask me. Optimists will point to last year as the Suns climbed out of a 3-1 hole to down the Lakers. The parallels end there. The weight on the shoulders of the Mavs is immense. Between their implosion in the Finals last year to dominating the entire league but Golden State this season, the Mavs are going to have to overcome history and reality. (Plus Stephen “Haymaker” Jackson.)

Finally, a few notes on imminent Eastern Conference second round matchups…

Nets-Cavs This Nets team is pretty much on par with the New Jersey teams that went to back to back NBA Finals a few years ago. Difference is the rest of the Eastern Conference was god-awful back then. No more will Jason Kidd win multiple playoff series’ by leading the fastbreak and tossing alleys to Richard Jefferson. The Nets reign as the most hard-nosed defensive team in the East has long passed. Simply put, anything the Nets can do Lebron can do better. Shoot. Pass. Defend. All advantage Lebron. He’ll ultimatley need a true wingman to take the next step, that much is known. But for the moment Lebron won’t have too many problems disposing of a team that recently has taken nothing but steps back.

Bulls-Pistons The Pistons exhausted their nitrous way too prematurely last year. For a team that already understood the grind of winning an NBA title, Detroit burned itself out in the 2005-06 regular season (64-18), had to dig itself out of a 3-2 hole just to defeat King James in the second round of the playoffs, then bowed to the Heat in the East Finals. I know what you’re thinking. To say the Bulls are hot after watching what they did to the defending champs would be like saying an ice-bath is cool. And yes, Ben Wallace did get the better of his old team during the regular season, but don’t let that fool you. Chicago is still maturing, and this season Detroit has adapted its mentality to that of a team expecting to win a championship.

Apr 16

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MLB Fantasy Points

MLB General Managers look at the season in three two-month increments. They spend April and May evaluating what they’ve put together and discovering if their team can be a contender. June and July are periods of assessment; GM’s of losing teams assess what kind of prospects they could receive upon dealing a big-name player while GM’s of winning teams try to target that missing piece that will hopefully put their club over the top. For this reason the majority of trades happen in July because at that point a GM knows for sure whether he’s going to be a buyer or seller. After the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, teams are either in it to win it or to play spoiler. (Although since the inception of the wild card many more teams have at least a theoretical shot at the playoffs much deeper into the season.) In sum, it is very rare to see a major trade consummated in the springtime unless it is in response to a key player sustaining a major injury.

So what, you might say, not tellin me anything I don’t already know. Fair enough. Here’s my question: why do so many fantasy owners see fit to wheel and deal so early in the season? The purpose of a fantasy league is to be your own GM, right? Don’t you put together a team that you believe will compete for the long haul? Why not emulate the guys getting paid tons of money to run baseball franchises? They allegedly know what they’re doing, and assuredly know more than we do, so it’s worth using their template.

Of course the biggest difference between GM’s and fantasy GM’s is that the real ones are constructing teams that can win baseball games whereas their fantasy counterparts are trying to amass the best cumulative statistics. Wins versus stats: an age-old paradigm that frequently pits the selfless against the selfish. Here’s the problem, though. Having a “good clubhouse guy” on your fantasy squad means squat. All fantasy owners are inherently (and justifiably) interested in only one thing: statistics.

Baseball is a sport told by numbers. By virtue of the length of season and intricacies of the game, not to mention the myriad of ways to statistically interpret production, baseball relies more on stats than any other sport. However, as complex as the game is, it is also quite simplistic. One guy throws, one guy hits, again and again. Because of this, it’s a game that revolves heavily around the law of averages. The element of repetition is prevalent, and most relevant to my argument. For example, if you flip a coin ten times, it could quite realistically land heads seven of those times. That would give you a 70% rate of heads. Flip that coin five hundred more times and I guarantee the rate of heads will be right around 50%. That may not be enlightening, but it is the law of averages.

Let’s relate that to baseball. Take a look at the current stats of three players, who for the moment shall remain anonymous.

Player A- .234, 0 HR, 1 RBI
Player B- .200, 0 HR, 6 RBI
Player C- .212, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Now, look at the stats of these three players.

Player D- .370, 2 HR, 11 RBI
Player E- .343, 6 HR, 10 RBI
Player F- .412, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Obviously anyone with rudimentary knowledge of baseball could look at these stats and say with complete certainty that Players A, B, and C are all worth trading for Players D, E, and F. In fact, the numbers would indicate that any fantasy owner who didn’t come to that conclusion must be a little thick in the head. Or just a real baseball junkie who knows that Player A is actually Alfonso Soriano, Player B Manny Ramirez, and Player C Travis Hafner. Three of the premier sluggers in the game today, whose numbers currently pale in comparison to the likes of Player D (Aaron Hill), Player E (Ian Kinsler), and Player F (Orlando Hudson).

Hey, no knock to Hill, Kinsler, and the O-Dog (who is finally living up to his ridiculously cool nickname). These guys have all had explosive first two weeks, and just might continue their bashing through the summer. However history would tell me that Soriano, Manny, and Hafner will all be fine. The law of averages has my back here too. For the purposes of this context the ole law states quite simply, that Hill, Kinsler, and Hudson will inevitably slow down and those other three will most definitely turn it on, and soon. (You know, water seeks its level…or something like that.)

Back to the main point. If you consider yourself a knowledgeable baseball fan and participated in your league’s draft (and did so with no identifiable mental black outs), there is simply no reason to make a big trade this early in the season. Chances are you have one of those three struggling, blue-chip superstars on your team. (If not one of them then someone in the class of Gary Sheffield, Mark Teixeira, or Lance Berkman, all of whom are presently enduring prolonged troubles at the plate.) So basically one of your top picks is not only performing poorly, but is actually skewing the entire statistical breakdown of your squad. A detriment at the moment? Absolutely. In the long run? Not in the least bit.

Real-life GM’s give their teams two months on average to develop an identity before making possible personnel decisions. And believe me, their concerns are far more serious than pondering what Manny and Hafner’s final 2007 stat-line will look like. So why shouldn’t we use the same philosophy? As fantasy owners, we all have our core of carefully selected blue-chippers to complement a handful of very good players and a couple of handpicked sleepers. That’s a fantasy baseball team. In my opinion it’s a crime to start tinkering with that entity so early in the season, when some of your stars are actually hindering the output of your team. I for one can say Manny probably won’t get the flip a coin ten times, flip it five hundred times thing, but that sure as hell won’t stop the law of averages from applying to the big fella.

So here’s my advice: take a hard look at your squad. If today, you feel it’s not as good as it was two weeks ago, and you haven’t sustained any major injuries, making a blockbuster trade isn’t the right move. Trying to get a refund on that twin you dropped probably is.