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Posts from the ‘Patriots’ Category

Nov 17

Super Bowl contenders: Who makes the cut?

The NFL prides itself on being an equal opportunity league. The turnover of playoff teams from one year to the next is traditionally at least 40 percent. It was a 50/50 split in 2011.

Since the Patriots won three out of four Super Bowls from 2001-04, five of the last seven champions have played in the Wild Card round. Three of them (’05 Steelers, ’07 Giants, ’10 Packers) ran the road gauntlet as Wild Card teams, and a fourth – the ’08 Cardinals – came within a minute of doing the same.

While gaudy, prolific regular seasons can captivate the masses, the trend of the league over the last seven years has illustrated time and again that it’s not how you get there, but the momentum you carry into January. Because of that, it’s difficult to gain a good handle on the true Super Bowl contenders until December at the earliest.

Then again, if we wait until then, there won’t be much to talk about around the Thanksgiving table, will there? Here’s a pre-Turkey Day stab at categorizing the contenders:

The pretenders – Baltimore, Seattle
The Ravens look like they blew their best chance at a second Super Bowl last season. Since Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff teamed up to flush the AFC title down the toilet in New England last January, Baltimore has been careening toward mediocrity – despite a house-of-cards 7-2 record through nine games. The Ravens’ defense is banged up and unable to stop anyone, allowing over 390 yards per game, fifth worst in the NFL. Joe Flacco, who by his own admission was poised to enter the ranks of the elite, is barely a Top 15 quarterback and only seems to play well against the Patriots. Yet the Ravens appear charmed, drawing Pittsburgh twice in the next three weeks with Ben Roethlisberger’s status in question. Baltimore looks headed for a second straight AFC North crown and a home game in the first round. One it will likely lose.

If the Seahawks had managed to upset the 49ers for sixty minutes instead of forty a few Thursday nights ago, they would be occupying a far more significant tier of these rankings. Seattle has the league’s No. 4 overall defense, as well as the fourth-ranked scoring defense. Marshawn Lynch always gains steam as the season progresses and is the type of unrelenting, downhill runner that can make life miserable for opposing defenses in the playoffs (hello: New Orleans, 2010). In addition, the number-crunchers at Football Outsiders have Seattle ranked third in the NFL by their total DVOA metric. However, because of that loss on Oct. 18 (and San Francisco’s subsequent tie), the Hawks trail the Niners by two games in the loss column in the NFC West, meaning they are all but assured to be on the road in the playoffs should they get there. And Seattle can’t win on the road. Russell Wilson has thrown eight interceptions in five games away from CenturyLink Field, four of which the Seahawks have lost.

The faux-tenders – Atlanta, Houston
Has an 8-1 team ever looked as ordinary as the Falcons? They should have lost to Carolina in Week 4, were outplayed by an awful Raiders team in Week 6, did everything they could to blow a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to the Broncos in Week 2 on Monday night and couldn’t score with three chances from the 1-yard line and the game on the line last Sunday against the Saints. The argument for the Falcons is they are seasoned after consecutive one-and-dones in the playoffs. From this view, the Atlanta defense is pretty much the same unit that was tuned up by the Packers and Giants, and Mike Smith is pretty much the same coach that has tightened up in each of those blowouts.

On paper (and the field, for that matter), the Texans shouldn’t be lumped with the Falcons. Houston boasts the No. 2 overall defense and No. 3 scoring defense in the league, along with the presumptive defensive player of the year, J.J. Watt. They can stop the run and feature one of the game’s best safety/corner tandems. So why are the Texans relegated to this status? For one, despite the growing up they did in the playoffs last year, they did so without their starting quarterback. As well-constructed of a team as Houston is, this is still a quarterback-driven league, particularly when it’s all on the line, and I’m not convinced Matt Schaub is ready to stare down the Bradys, Mannings and Rodgers of the world with a championship on the line. And sorry, but Super Bowl contenders don’t get their clocks cleaned at home in a nationally-televised game like Houston did by Green Bay in Week 6.

The caveats – Pittsburgh, Chicago
The jury is still out on the Steelers and Bears because of their ailing quarterbacks. If Jay Cutler experiences lingering post-concussion effects, it could be deja vu for the 7-2 Bears, who were 7-3 at the two-thirds marker last year and had the makeup of a legitimate contender before Cutler was felled. Likewise for the Steelers, who simply have no chance without a 100-percent Roethlisberger.

The uncategorizables – Giants
So the Giants won six of their first eight, highlighted by a 26-3 stampeding of San Francisco that is neck and neck with Aaron Rodgers’ six touchdown passes in the aforementioned Sunday night smackdown for the season’s most impressive victory. They’ve since dropped two straight games, Eli Manning has looked terrible and the schedule is murderous down the stretch. Hmmm, where have we seen this before …

The lurkers – New England, San Francisco
As usual, the Patriots are tough to quantify. They once again feature the league’s highest-powered offense, ranking No. 1 in total yards per game (430.3) and points per game (33.2) with room to spare in each category. Seventh in passing, fifth in rushing. In terms of total DVOA, New England is second overall, and its three losses have been by a combined four points. Yet in two of their last three games, the Patriots have been forced to pull rabbits out of their hats against the Jets and Bills. Back-to-back games against Houston and San Francisco in Weeks 14-15 will be interesting, but will probably tell us more about the Texans and Niners than the Pats.

Indeed, if San Francisco is able to fly cross-country and knock off New England in primetime on Dec. 16, the road to New Orleans could realistically be going through the City by the Bay. That said, Tom Brady rarely loses at home, in December or to NFC teams in the regular season. Tough to see all three happening at once. That’s not to say the Niners aren’t serious contenders. Quite the contrary, as this team is built to beat any NFC heavy-hitter minus the Giants, who just flat-out have San Francisco’s number.

The favorites – Green Bay, Denver
If the 49ers are built to beat Green Bay (they are) and the Giants pose legitimate matchup problems for Green Bay (they do), how can the Packers be the favorite to come out of the NFC? First, the defense, which has quietly regained its 2010 form: solid against the run (98.3 yards per game, tied for 10th in the NFL) and able to bring consistent pressure (28 sacks, tied for second). Then there’s Rodgers, who far too many questioned after four lackluster performances (by his standards) dating back to the playoff loss to the Giants last year. Rodgers didn’t look great to begin the season, and Green Bay lost two of its first three games (well, according to the replacement refs). Since The Seattle Job, the Packers are 5-1 and Rodgers has been in message-mode.

During their four-game winning streak, the Broncos have scored 35, 34, 31 and 36 points. Peyton Manning has established himself as the clear front-runner for MVP, the defense leads the league with 33 sacks and is ranked sixth overall. And just in case you were wondering, the Broncos are No. 1 in total DVOA. They haven’t lost since Week 5 in New England, and a cursory glance at their schedule indicates there’s a good chance they won’t lose again until a potential rematch with the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. And by the looks of it, that one may very well be in the Mile High City.

Nov 2

Taking the NFL pulse at season’s midway point

Some quick-hitting thoughts as the calendar flips to November and the 2012 NFL season reaches the halfway marker …

The West is already won
The AFC West appears to be a tightly-contested race, with only one game separating the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders. Don’t be fooled. At 4-3, Denver is poised to run away with the division after emerging from a grueling first two months that included games against at least four contenders (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston and New England). Peyton Manning looks more comfortable by the week and the schedule shakes out favorably.
The Broncos can start fitting themselves for a three-seed unless San Diego finds a way to keep playing the Chiefs.

The NFC West has calibrated itself after a collective September surge that few, if any, saw coming. Since the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams started a combined 11-4, they have gone 0-9. San Francisco, meanwhile, is humming along at 6-2. At their best, the Niners have looked like a team destined for another deep January run. But they have also been pummeled by the Vikings and Giants, raising some questions about their ability to consistently win in the trenches. While the Jekyll and Hyde act could be a cause for concern in the long run, it won’t prevent San Francisco from cruising to its second straight NFC West title.

Talib the difference-maker in New England?
Trades are rare in the NFL, but don’t tell that to the Patriots. Bill Belichick has proven over the years that he will buck the trend if he feels he can acquire a potential impact player at a reasonable price (Randy Moss in 2007 and Deion Branch in 2010, both acquired for fourth-round draft picks, come to mind). Hence the deal for corner Aqib Talib, whom New England obtained Thursday in return for a 2013 fourth-rounder.

The longtime Buccaneer is one of the elite corners in the game, a position that has been a major problem spot for the Patriots since the departure of Asante Samuel after the 2007 season. Talib arrives with a good deal more baggage than that which he will stick in his new locker, but Belichick has never been fazed by so-called “character issues.” Some of his bold moves have paid off (Corey Dillon, Moss), others not so much (Albert Haynesworth). If Talib embraces the opportunity and helps shore up the Patriots’ only glaring weakness, they will be tough to beat in the AFC.

Dolphins/Colts has playoff implications
On Sunday afternoon, the Dolphins and Colts will tango at Lucas Oil Stadium, with the winner moving to 5-3 and squarely on track for 10 wins. The 10-win plateau is traditionally a goal set by teams with playoff aspirations. Indianapolis is coming off a 2-14 season and Miami didn’t inspire too much confidence during its stint on HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” which is to say this game wasn’t exactly highlighted in yellow on the “games to watch” list as recently as early October.

But these teams have combined to win six of their last seven, Indy on the strength of a coming-into-his-own Andrew Luck and Miami thanks to the league’s No. 5 scoring defense. In a weakened AFC this year, whomever comes in second between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North looks to have a secure hold on the first Wild Card spot. The second Wild Card is up for grabs, and the winner of this game will have the inside track heading into the cold months.

Another Giant slide in the offing?

The Giants pull into the midway point at 6-2, the fifth time in the last six years they have won at least six of their first eight games. Only once in that span did they manage better than four wins over the second half of the season (5-3 in 2008). To be fair, the schedule almost always breaks poorly for Tom Coughlin’s crew. This year is no different, as the Giants face a daunting second half that includes games against the Steelers, Packers, Saints, Falcons and Ravens, along with divisional games vs. the Redskins and Eagles.

It’s tough to envision the Giants managing better than a split of that slate, but given that they’re currently the only team in the NFC East over .500, it’s reasonable to assume that 10 wins will secure the division. Of course, the caveat to all this is the one time the Giants produced a strong second half and locked down home-field and a first-round bye in ’08, they were bounced in the divisional round by the Eagles. Go figure.

Sep 26

No matter what, NFL’s black eye will linger

It looks like the NFL referee lockout will end in time for the regular officials to be back on the field for the Week 4 games. But that by no means ensures the issue is a thing of the past. Not after the Packers were hosed on Monday night by an official who had been deemed unfit for Division I college football.

If and when late December rolls around and Green Bay is fighting for a playoff spot and comes up a game short (unlikely) or loses a tiebreaker it would have otherwise won (very much a possibility) and therefore loses a bye or has to go on the road in the postseason, the aftershock will be greater than the quake.

golden-tate1It didn’t take a polished football mind to see this coming. From the outset, it was clear the replacement refs were overmatched. Not counting subjective elements of the job (which even the regular officials struggle with, albeit not to the degree of the replacements) the scabs proved incapable of consistently spotting the ball correctly, marking off penalty yards, keeping timeout inventories, awarding challenges and generally maintaining order and game flow. In other words, the stuff that fans, and more importantly, players and coaches take for granted. That’s not even mentioning a few glaring conflicts of interest that surfaced.

That was the writing on the wall, the fodder for news conferences, talk shows and water coolers. You could take your pick of issues plaguing the replacements on the field, and make a solid case as to how they were overmatched. It wasn’t until Sunday night in Baltimore, however, that “overmatched” became “utterly ill-equipped.”

In the biggest game of the season to date – a rematch of the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Ravens – the replacements were cooked from the word go. Players engaged after the whistle on nearly every play, which stripped the game of any semblance of rhythm. The refs tried to counterbalance that by throwing so many flags it was fair to wonder if it was free banana night at M&T Bank Stadium. Both teams were victimized by terrible calls.

Then, on the game’s final play with the Patriots leading, 30-28, kicker Justin Tucker hooked a 27-yard field goal over the left upright. Was the kick good? Did it sail to the outside of the upright? Replays showed it was too close to call. The only person who could definitively tell was the official standing underneath the upright. He signaled “good,” and the game was over.

Analysis of the first two weeks had already shown that the replacements were being influenced by the home crowds in respect to the calls they made and in what situations. After all, the majority of these guys had never worked in front of more than a few thousand fans, let alone upwards of seventy or more.

So was the kick good? Or more to the point, if it was indeed slightly wide left, was that official capable of processing the brain wave to criss-cross his arms in front of a bloodthirsty Baltimore crowd that not long ago had managed the clearest and “loudest manure chant” Al Michaels had ever heard? Was the official thinking about Billy Cundiff in the AFC title game and how he might not escape M&T Bank Stadium with his extremities intact if he signaled no-good? Or was he making the call he was paid to make? Would he have made the same call on the same kick at Gillette Stadium?

It’s impossible to know, but after a similar occurrence at CenturyLink Field twenty-four hours later – only this time far more egregious and hideous – one that unequivocally cost the Packers a win, all those questions are valid. And that’s what happens when a monolith like the NFL loses its credibility.

The referees may be on their way back this weekend. As for the integrity of the league, the best-case scenario is January.

Nov 16

Taking in a striking NFL landscape

With the NBA lockout threatening to swallow up the entire 2011-12 season – and slam shut the closing window on the Celtics’ chances at one final title run – it seems like a good time to relish the presence of football, and what has thus far been a riveting 2011 campaign. Consider the following:

• For the first time since the late 90s, the two undisputed best teams in the league (Packers, 49ers) reside in the NFC.

• Three quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, Rodgers) are on pace to annihilate Dan Marino’s single-season passing record of 5,084 yards.

• In this new era of gaudy air attacks enabled by concussion-related rules in place that essentially force defenses to play with one arm tied behind their backs, Tim Tebow is 3-1 as an NFL starter while running an offense that bears more resemblance to Navy’s than any other NFL team.

• A neck injury has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that Peyton Manning is the most important/valuable/indispensable player/coordinator/on-field general to his team in the history of the sport.

Typically, by mid-November all the chatter is geared toward which squads are contenders and which are bound to regress to the mean. That’s because roughly half of the teams are at or above .500 around Thanksgiving, but in reality at least bradybelichickone-third of those “playoff-hopefuls” are nominally such, and nothing more (aka the pretenders).

These days, however, there are a pair of juicier subplots that need to be investigated in more detail before the annual playoff-push commences.

Reports of Patriots’ demise premature … again

By tuning up the Jets on Sunday night, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady notched win No. 117 together, passing the Don Shula/Dan Marino tandem for first on the all-time victories list. The caveat being they did it in 35 fewer games.

So how does this relate to the here and now? First, it’s officially silly to write off the Patriots in the regular season. Period. Naysayers, naturally, have free rein to trash New England for its recent playoff inadequacies. That hate is founded for a team that is a combined 41-16 (.719) in the regular season since its last postseason win. Second, to not give New England the benefit of the doubt in a division it has owned each of the last seven years Tom Brady has been on the field is shortsighted.

Now, considering the cupcake schedule the Patriots are staring at over the stretch run, it’s going to be tough to legitimately appraise what looks like, at worst, a 12-4 team. The real answers won’t come until January. But teams start to develop patterns by this time of the year, which slowly evolve into identities.

As opposed to recent New England outfits – which, let’s face it, were gifted with talent but plagued by a soft underbelly – this squad has a certain spunk to it. The next-hand-on-deck mentality that was the hallmark of the title teams has made a cameo, most notably on Sunday night, when the Patriots trotted out of a defensive backfield that had even the omniscient Al Michaels grasping at straws in pursuit of arcane nuggets. Alas, even Google only knows so much about the Sterling Moores, Antwaun Moldens and Niko Koutouvides of the world.

Lest we forget, the Patriots of yesteryear were perennial long shots and afterthoughts – rife with castoffs and perceived nobodies – but they embodied the intellect, discipline and toughness of their pair of leaders, which permeated through the ranks, 1-through-53.

Preparation and toughness, more than anything else, wins in January. And while the Patriots have already lost more games than all of last regular season, it’s been their resiliency that has kept them hanging around until the bitter end of tilts against the Cowboys, Steelers and Giants that they had no business winning (something that can’t be said of Jets 28, Patriots 14; and Browns 34, Patriots 14).

aaron-rodgersThe Packers are frighteningly good

Not exactly a newsflash, I know. But for those counting at home, Green Bay has not lost since dropping a 31-27 affair in New England last December … with Matt Flynn at quarterback. Since then, it’s been two wins to close out the 2010 campaign, four more en route to a world championship, and nine straight to begin the title defense.

Between the 15-game win streak, the otherworldly play of Aaron Rodgers and the 2007 Patriots still fresh in everyone’s memories, it’s difficult not to at least start thinking about the possibility …

Here’s my two cents: With a Thanksgiving game in Detroit and a trip to the East Coast 10 days later to face a Giants squad that is well-constructed to give the prolific Packers’ offense fits and also capable of putting up its fair share of points (ie the formula for beating Green Bay), I’m not ready to say the 2011 Packers are 16-0 in the making.

Though this is without a doubt the fiercest squad since the ’07 Patriots, and right there with the ’01 Rams as a team you must absolutely conjure up the perfect game plan for – and execute flawlessly – to even have a chance of prevailing.

In addition to the seemingly limitless explosive offensive potential of Rodgers and Co., the much-maligned Packers defense is a good deal better than it gets credit for. When Clay Matthews is flying off the edge and forcing quarterbacks into accelerating their progressions, and when Green Bay’s All-Pro caliber corners are playing off one another and in cohesion – as opposed to bickering among themselves – that D is a unit to be reckoned with (see: Packers 45, Vikings 7)

That said, Green Bay still has the feel of a 15-1 team with the potential to go 18-1 (the right way).

Jul 24

Halladay Deal Could Be Second “Holliday” for Fantasy Owners

With exactly one week before the MLB Trade Deadline, Roy Halladay — the biggest prize available — remains a Blue Jay, and general manager J.P. Ricciardi indicated Tuesday the club is unlikely to deal the ace.

Naturally, that statement can be chalked up as GM jockeying, and Ricciardi is one of the best in the business when it comes to that.  When he first made it known that he would be open to hearing Halladay offers back on July 7, two of the first phone calls he received were from Theo Epstein of the Red Sox and Brian Cashman of the Yankees.

The one thing Toronto would like to avoid is dealing Doc to an AL East foe, because 1) it would further alter the balance of power in baseball’s most competitive division, and 2) Halladay is the one guy available who would be an absolute game-changer in the never-ending Sox-Yanks arms race.

However, any smart GM knows that if he wants to max out the value of a star player whose departure is imminent, the talks must first go through Boston and New York.  In this case, Halladay has one year left on his contract, and as opposed to the past, said he does not want to sign a contract extension.  Which means Ricciardi essentially has three windows in which to deal him for some significant parts: before the Trade Deadline, in the offseason, before the 2010 Trade Deadline.

The chances of Halladay landing in Beantown or the Big Apple are slim, considering the prices would likely be too steep for either club — probably Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard from the Sox or Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes from the Yanks — to bite on.  But a bidding/prospect war is exactly what Ricciardi wants, and any fantasy owners with Halladay should want the same.  Why?

Because there’s another team in the Northeast Corridor that has the pieces to acquire Halladay, and as opposed to Boston and New York, really really needs his services.  That would be the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Relying on a rotation that includes Cole Hamels (struggling), Jamie Moyer (ancient) and Joe Blanton (serviceable at best), the Phils can’t expect to mount a serious title defense come October without doing something significant to their rotation, particularly given the imploding act that has been Brad Lidge this year.  The one bright spot on their staff has been 26-year-old rookie left-hander, J.A. Happ.  Happ is big (6-6), throws in the mid 90s and is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 23 games (11 starts) this season.

If the Phillies can get Toronto to accept a package of Happ and a few other top prospects (outfielders Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown have been discussed), Halladay’s fantasy value will go through the roof.

Think about it for a minute.  Doc has spent his entire career pitching in the trenches of the AL East, the majority of which he’s done in the era of the unbalanced schedule.  Of his 273 career starts, 68 (or 25 percent) have come against the Red Sox and Yankees.  He’s hurled 20 complete games from 2007-09, most in the bigs, and possesses a career ERA of 3.46.

Now, project those numbers to a league without the DH and a division with the Marlins and Nationals instead of the Red Sox and Yankees.  Yikes.

Everyone saw what CC Sabathia did when he made the move to the NL in the second half of 2008 (11-2, 1.65 ERA, seven complete games in 17 starts).  Well, Halladay is better than Sabathia, so fantasy owners can do the math.

While Halladay talks have dominated the airwaves and water coolers for the better part of three weeks, just as I was writing this piece, a deal of comparable proportions actually got done.  The Cardinals sent three players to the A’s in exchange for outfielder Matt Holliday.

This is a major move for St. Louis, as the Cardinals look to bolster their lineup for a run at a second World Series in four years.  But it’s just as big for fantasy owners with Holliday, who was never right in the American League in the middle of an extremely soft Oakland lineup.  But if he was ever settling into a groove, it was just recently, as he’s hit .344 with a .986 OPS this month.  Additionally, he came out of the All-Star break swinging a fiery stick, cranking three homers and knocking in 11 runs over the last eight games, easily his most prolific stretch this season.

So not only is a scorching Holliday headed back to the familiarity of the National League, but he’s leaving a lineup where he protected the likes of Kurt Suzuki and Scott Hairston, and slipping into a batting order where he’ll likely hit between Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, the most fearsome slugger in the game and one of the hottest hitters over the last month.

For all intents and purposes, Holliday was a fantasy bust for the first three months of the 2009 season.  Those days appear to be over, as he’s shown signs of life lately and is now primed for a monstrous stretch run with a contender.

Owners with the bopper should be licking their chops, and if they happen to also employ one Roy Halladay, there just might be a second “Holliday” coming within the next week.

Apr 24

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Boston Ramblings

Heady times in Boston once again.

The Red Sox and Yankees are set to tango at Fenway in their inaugural ’09 series beginning Friday. The Patriots will be on the clock Saturday, as the 2009 NFL Draft fires up. And once the Celtics take care of the Bulls, both the Green and Bruins will be appearing in their respective conference semifinals for the first time since 1992.

A few thoughts about each…

AM I THE only one yearning for an infusion of hate into Sox-Yanks? Isn’t that what made this whole thing the preeminent ongoing sports drama, way back when?

You ask any Red Sox or Yankees fan what they remember most clearly about the rivalry in recent past — apart from The Comeback — and a Boston fan will say Varitek’s Glove in A-Rod’s Face, while a New York fan will recount Pedro’s Body Slam of Zimmer.  These enduring images characterized and defined the rivalry, made it drop-everything, must-see television 19 or 26 times annually.  ESPN and Fox salivated all over it.  Passionate followers cleared their schedules and did everything they could to score the hottest ticket in town.  Casual fans tuned in because, hell, anything could happen.  No matter who you were, Red Sox-Yankees always found a way to find you.

Nowadays?  The media outlets aren’t nearly as enthralled, which is largely a reflection of popular sentiment.  And quite frankly, it’s because they have barely anything to hype.  The big storyline going into this weekend surrounds Joba Chamberlain and David Ortiz.  Joba, who has thrown at Kevin Youkilis on a few occasions, was called out by Big Papi, if you can even classify it as such.  Ortiz basically said that since Joba has shown head-hunting proclivities, he’s going to find it difficult to gain respect throughout the league.  (His comments contained almost as much vitriol as a certain drive-by argument…)

Would it be that out of line if Big Papi had said something just a tad more incendiary, to you know, send a message? I for one would love to see Joba hurl some chin music at Ortiz, watch Papi step out of the box and tell Joba to watch his corn-fed behind, then blast one into the center field bleachers.

IT’S PRETTY MUCH impossible to predict what the Patriots will do come draft day, which is why it’s so much fun tossing around various conspiracy theories.  Using the last two drafts as indicators, there’s truly no telling what Bill Belichick is up to.

Two years ago, the Randy Moss-to-New England rumors had come and gone before the draft, yet Belichick pulled a cat of out a hat in New York and in came Moss for (even at the time) a laughable fourth-round pick.  And a year ago, clearly deviating from his track record of only selecting linemen high in the first round, Belichick traded down from the seventh to tenth overall pick and selected linebacker Jerod Mayo.

While the possibility of Julius Peppers becoming a Patriot has been declared dead for all intents and purposes, it is for that very reason that it could still be alive.  When Peter King reports that New England is looking to trade its first-round and a second-round pick to move into the low top 10, but professes to have little idea as to why, the theories are free to fly.

All that’s for sure are the following facts: 1) New England was initially offering a second-round pick for Peppers, which was not enough, 2) Having shored up their secondary (signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and running game (Fred Taylor), the outside linebacker position is the Patriots’ only glaring weakness, 3) A low top 10 pick is an excellent bargaining chip, given the caliber of talent available there, as well as the slightly smaller financial obligation necessary to sign the player.

If Peter King doesn’t have a bead on what the Patriots will do, it’s legitimately anyone’s guess.  But that’s what makes following Belichick’s moves on draft day so intriguing.

THE CELTICS WERE the champs again on Thursday night in Chicago.  After a pair of scintillating games at the Garden that could have gone either way, Paul Pierce took command of Game 3 from the outset and the Celtics defense suffocated the suddenly overmatched Bulls all night.

Even with Kevin Garnett on the bench in a suit, it was a vintage performance from the Green on the defensive end, as they held Chicago to under 41 percent shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  For the first time in the series, Pierce played like the best player on the court.  And Rajon Rondo, who battled to a stalemate with Derrick Rose in Boston, took decisive control of the point guard showdown, racking up 20 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals.

This series may still be extended — Chicago was 28-13 at home before Thursday — but for the Bulls, there’s ultimately no recovering from such a colossal beatdown in their own building.  Especially against the champs.

I HAVE NEVER written about the Bruins, because 1) I don’t know enough about hockey to throw my weight around, and 2) the Bruins have done nothing but disappoint for a very long time.  They infamously blew a 3-1 series lead against Montreal as the No. 1 seed in 2004, then attempted to reverse the script last year as the underdog, before falling to the Habs in seven.

All I remember from last year’s playoffs was how a few choice Boston crackpots decided to beat up visiting Montreal fans leaving the Garden.  It was an unnecessary and classless thing to do, though it paled in comparison to the disgraceful act staged by Canadiens fans before Game 3 Monday in Montreal: booing the American national anthem.

It was fitting that the Bruins proceeded to snuff out Montreal’s season with a pair of systematic thrashings, while formalizing a tidy four-game sweep in which Boston outscored the Habs 17-6.   I can officially say I’m back on the bandwagon, and am eagerly anticipating the Bruins’ projected second-round matchup with the New York Rangers.

To bring this rambling column full circle:  Maybe a little Bruins-Rangers is just what the doctored ordered for a suffering Boston-New York rivalry.

(Unless of course Joba decides to throw one behind Big Papi Friday night.)

Sep 20

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Cally-Sox-Pats Points

I just spent 10 days in Los Angeles, which should explain the recent void in posting. For that I apologize. However the time I passed in Southern California was more or less a marathon of sports and gaming, culminating with a mega-sports weekend back in Boston. Before I get into the Red Sox and Patriots let me catch you up on the highlights of my wacky sports voyage out on the left coast.

LA is a city that couldn’t be any further removed from New York (and I’m not speaking continentally). In the City of Angels it’s 82 and sunny everyday, and woe to he who spots a cloud. Tans and radiance in LA are as common as suits and scowls in New York. Cars are either classy and ostentatious or average and unnoticed. That’s Southern California in a nutshell: an endless struggle to be seen. Sports act merely as another manifestation of the Hollywood-driven, image-conscious SoCal culture. So yes, sports fans exist in abundance, but their level of interest and passion is dwarfed by their East Coast fan-counterparts. But then again, when everyone is so smoking hot and the sun perpetually shines, I guess sports really don’t need to be so all-consuming.

Case in point was the Dodgers-Padres game I attended last Wednesday. In a do or die ballgame for the Dodgers, the Stadium at Chavez Ravine (a beautiful ballpark situated in the hills above LA) was at least 15,000 short of sold out. The only buzz generated before the late innings was in reaction to the timeless-Tommy Lasorda as he posed for a photo with a pair of cute coeds at his post behind the Dodgers on-deck circle. And the one time the crowd appeared genuinely united in celebration was during the “kiss cam” between innings. This is a ritual where some seedy guy with a camera prowls through the stadium looking to goad older couples and first dates into awkward embraces, all with the crowd peeping gleefully on the jumbotron. (Although I definitely got the best show because it turned out the couple in front of me were actually cousins, forced to sweat out that particular half-inning dreading the scenario in which they were compelled to become incestuous kiss cam-culprits).

The other infusion of energy came when the ever-chipper Vin Scully led the house in his token-double rendition of “Take me out to the ballgame”. While we’re here let me tell you how truly dumbfounded I was when a buddy of mine told me that Scully calls both the radio and television broadcasts, on his own, simultaneously. That’s like trying to recount a Vegas story for your grandmother and best friend on a conference call. Which reminds me…

Smack in the middle of the trip I had my first foray with the mercurial beast that is Las Vegas. Three friends made the trek with me. We got there at 1 am on a Monday night and proceeded to run the gauntlet for the next ten hours. We hit the MGM Grand, Paris, Bellagio, Caesars Palace and the Monte Carlo before calling it a day (or whatever you call unorthodox hours in succession spent in Vegas). Other than some ups and downs, a hooker sweet talking my buddy, and me riling up a blackjack dealer at the Grand, there was astonishingly little to report from Sin City. I was expecting Times Square on speed without the cops. I was ready to be baffled!! I ended up being befuddled. This sensation was later validated when I learned that Britney Spears had made a wrenching comeback at the MTV Video Music Awards the night before at the Palms. What eventually hit me like a sack of bricks was the realization that we unknowingly became those guys who decided to roll through the night after the biggest cooler in the history of Vegas. Excellent.

If you want to laugh or feel my pain watch the “performance” for yourself.

The good news was that a monstrous sports weekend was on the horizon 3,000 miles away in Beantown. The Yankees were visiting the Red Sox for their last regular season tilt beginning on Friday while the Patriots were absorbing a cheating scandal and trying to prepare for a playoff rematch with the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

Friday’s Sox-Yanks game was spent on the couch at my buddy’s place. A few mornings at the beach combined with the still-present Vegas-hangover was sufficient enough to keep us out of the bar. With the three-game sweep statement the Yankees made at the Stadium two weeks before, it was vital for the Sox to come out and reciprocate that statement. Everything looked nice, as Dice-K submitted his first good start in a month and the Sox carried a 7-2 lead into the eighth inning. It was then that the Yankees decided to reciprocate what the Sox did to Mariano Rivera in the clubs first meeting of the season, way back on April 20th. Namely score a lot of runs in a very short period of time. They battered Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon for six lightning-quick scores, turning a sure “W” into a ringing “L”. The Sox saved face behind their ace on Saturday, as Josh Beckett proved once again he’s the stopper. But the empty feeling was back on Sunday night as the Nation watched Big Papi fly out with the bases loaded and the game on the line against Mo. The Sox will now enter October having dropped five of six to the Bombers.

So the obvious question is how worried should we be? Seeing Dice-K throw well, albeit laboriously, was about the best thing we could’ve seen minus Manny making a triumphant and healthy return last weekend. The Sox need Dice-K in the playoffs. As for Manny, his oblique muscle strain is absolutely a cause for concern, because the soreness affects both his swing and mobility. It looks like he’s going to end up having a whole month to rehab and strengthen the muscle, which should be enough time. If Manny comes back healthy the lineup is not a concern entering the postseason. The bullpen evidently is. Okajima hasn’t been able to get anybody out the last month and Eric Gagne has cost the team four wins since he came on board six weeks ago. Mike Timlin seems to have finally gotten old. Papelbon has sputtered of late but will be lights out come October because he scares people.

Don’t be fooled, if the Red Sox keep playing the way they’ve been playing they’ll surely surrender the AL East. At 90-63 it’s realistic that they could go 5-4 over their last nine, finish with 95 wins, and (like 2005) lose the division to the Yanks with identical 95-67 records because they dropped the season series 10-8. For this scenario to come to fruition, the Yankees would only have to win seven of their last 10. Shivering yet?

I’ll give you reason for optimism. First, the Red Sox are ambassadors of the wild card, and have their habitual meal ticket to October already punched if need be. While these Sox may not douse themselves in champagne, donning “Wild Card Champion” T-shirts like the Cowboys or Idiots, there’s always comfort in knowing they’re “in” on September 20th. Second, look at the recent past. Last year the Tigers pushed the self-destruct button in September and allowed the Twins to erase a late-August double digit lead and take the division on the last day of the season. The wild card Tigers then chomped their way to the AL pennant before losing a bizarre World Series marred by rainouts and the Cardinals. Then there are the 2000 Yankees, who lost 15 of their last 17 and almost let the in-shambles-Red Sox steal the division, before abruptly steamrolling their way to a third-straight championship. So rest (relatively) easy for the time being and let me talk about the reason why I barely watched the last Sox-Yankees game.

It was very difficult to turn away from NBC on Sunday night, even if the network refused to acknowledge the existence of one of the most thorough NFL thrashings in some time. ESPN.com’s Sportsguy tackled that in his latest column, detailing in form everything Al Michaels and John Madden chose not cover (like, for instance, the Pats-Chargers game that took place in Foxborough). Assuming you’ve read Sportsguy or one of the other gazillion pieces written about the Patriots lately, I’ll abstain from dropping stats, except this one: Roosevelt Colvin finished the game with 5 tackles, 2 sacks, an interception and two forced fumbles. That’s next level. Collectively that’s where the Patriots appear to be residing on a perch of their own these days. Yet, like NBC, the football world and national media currently know only two words to associate with the Patriots: CameraGate. Or maybe that’s one word. Whatever.

In any event what strikes me is that most people I’ve talked to (on both coasts) are in agreement on two fronts about this Patriots team. First is the common belief that, injuries notwithstanding, the ’07 Patriots have a better than 50% chance of vanquishing the ’72 Dolphins by becoming the first team in league history to go 19-0. Second is the fairly unified and time-honored notion that the rat is dirty too. While Bill Belichick decided to interpret NFL rules in his own way (read: cheat), it was Eric Mangini who had no qualms about blowing the whistle on Belichick and assuming the role of “the rat”. Why Belichick was being so brazen in defiance of NFL mandates, in the presence of the one guy in the league who knows more about his skeletons in the closet than anybody else is beyond me.

That definitely doesn’t clean up what Mangini did, however. Football is not like other sports. If anything football represents the closest a game can come to combat. It’s the one sport where the boundary between “gamesmanship” and “cheating” cannot be clearly defined. In football, it shouldn’t be. Teams play once a week, 16 times a year. Preparation for a football game involves much more than scripting the first drive for your offense or honing your special teams unit. Preparation for a football game involves gathering sensitive information about your opponent; identifying and learning how to expose its weaknesses; discovering new ways to confuse and exploit it. You might as well liken being an NFL coach to being a CIA field office chief overseas (within context of course). The goal is to target a system (be it a mark or a team) and infiltrate that system, all towards the greater goal of gaining intelligence about your adversary that you can later use when the time warrants. By nature the work is devious and manipulative. Some work, as they say, is not for the faint of heart. Whereas the CIA develops human assets as its principle means of gathering intelligence, NFL coaches employ the use of video cameras.

Again, I’m not condoning Belichick’s actions; the videotaping of the Jets signals he authorized was a shady and underhanded tactic aimed at gaining inside info about the Jets defensive calls so as to better prepare for the teams second meeting later this season. It was also a means he used to more thoroughly prepare for the teams second meeting later this season. (No, I’m not being redundant.) Fact is, scheming and illegal as it was, it’s pretty commonly held throughout the league that all teams and all coaches do exactly what Belichick was doing, just not as arrogantly. The terms “squeaky clean” and “football” have no business being uttered in the same breath. Rules and violations aside, anyone who sits down and watches football on Sundays knows implicitly that the game is raucous and dirty, defined by battles in the trenches and chess-like maneuvers by coaches. Players don’t hesitate in classifying it as “war”.

What I find interesting in everything that’s happened is the fact that Eric Mangini presented the entire league and its franchises with a golden opportunity to permanently relegate Belichick and the Patriots to the fringes of NFL-society. Yet last Sunday it was Mangini himself who drew the ire of Ravens head coach, Brian Billick. Ater the Jets dropped a hard-fought 20-13 game to the Ravens, Billick said the Jets defense “did a very, very effective job of illegally simulating the snap count” to thwart the Ravens’ offensive line. Coaches are rarely impulsive in press conferences, especially those with the stature and tenure of Billick. While he later backed off what he said, pointing the finger instead at the officials for not properly harnessing the Jets’ maneuvers, Billick’s postgame comments should assuredly not be taken with a grain of salt. In modifying his statement from after the game, Billick later said, “I was more upset that [the Jets] were doing it better than we were. We all do it.”

Very crafty on Billick’s part in my opinion. He succeeded both in blowing the whistle on the whistle blower and subtly conveying that in a word, s–t goes down in the NFL. So you know what? Let’s leave it at that and get back to some football because I’ve lost all feeling in my fingers.