Ballgame’s Points

The calendar has turned to December, which is another way of saying the NFL playoff picture is coming into focus. Right now, it looks like the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the pursuit of the second bye in the AFC are going to be hotly contested, whereas the wild card and division races are likely to be less dramatic. Let’s get right to it.

The Saints dispelled any skepticism about their elite status by blowing away the Patriots on Monday night, and in doing so officially opened the discussion on the possibility and likelihood of a 16-0 season. Of course, there’s a team in the AFC that’s also 11-0, but the major caveat is the Colts will have wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by Week 15 (16 at the latest). Which would indicate the Jets and Bills will be seeing their fair share of Jim Sorgi in Weeks 16 and 17.

New Orleans, on the other hand, very well may need to register a perfect season to ensure the NFC playoffs go through the Superdome. That’s because the Vikings, currently 10-1, fell to an out-of-conference opponent in the Steelers and therefore will hold the vital conference-record tiebreaker if the two teams finish with identical records (the Saints have completed the AFC portion of their schedule).

There are a few possible bumps in the road down the stretch for Minnesota, beginning this Sunday night in Arizona. That’s followed by a home game vs. Cincinnati (who already downed Green Bay at Lambeau Field earlier this year), road contests in Carolina and Chicago before the season finale at home against the Giants. Looking at that schedule, 14-2 seems likely for the Vikings. That means the Saints should be able to drop one of their final five (at WAS, at ATL, DAL, TB, at CAR) and still retain home field.

The No. 2 seed in the AFC — crucial because it gives a team a week off and a home game in the divisional round — is probably not going to the Patriots, although it’s still possible if they run the table. The more probable scenario has the second bye going to the winner of the Bengals-Chargers game in San Diego on Dec. 20. Both teams are 8-3 and both have manageable December schedules. Plus if they each finish 12-4, the winner of the head-to-head matchup will obviously hold the tiebreaker for postseason seeding. Huge game.

As for the wild-card races, we’ll know for sure after this weekend if there are going to be any in the NFC. Right now, the Eagles and Packers occupy the two slots with 7-4 marks. Still very much in contention are the Falcons and Giants, who are each 6-5. The Giants host Dallas (8-3) on Sunday, a game that will either thrust the G-Men into the thick of both the wild-card and NFC East races, or put a premature end to their season. The Falcons welcome Philadelphia in a must-win game that quarterback Matt Ryan has already been ruled out of. A loss to the Eagles finishes Atlanta. Green Bay can take a big step toward January by beating the Ravens on Monday night.

In the AFC, 10 wins looks to be the magic number for a wild-card spot, and the Broncos (7-4) should reach that with winnable games vs. Kansas City (twice) and Oakland at home. There’s little room for error, though, as Denver will have to travel to Indianapolis and Philadelphia in Weeks 14 and 16. If the Broncos take care of business against the teams they should beat, they’ll end a three-year playoff drought.

As for the other AFC wild-card berth, the Steelers, Ravens and Jaguars all sit at 6-5, but the sixth and final spot is Pittsburgh’s to lose. The defending champs finish with one of the league’s easier final slates (OAK, at CLE, GB, BAL, at MIA).

Recent history says the second Steelers-Ravens game will decide who’s taking to the gridiron and who’s watching from the couch come January. Given the way the Steelers played in defeat Sunday night (losing 20-17 in overtime) with a guy, Dennis Dixon, who had thrown a total of one NFL pass before Sunday, it’s tough to imagine the Ravens coming into Heinz Field and sweeping the Steelers, particularly if both Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu are back as scheduled.

Then there are the Titans. The dark horse. The squad everyone in the AFC is mindful of and — whether they’ll admit it or not — wants nothing to do with. Since getting blanked 59-love by the Patriots, Tennessee has blasted through five consecutive opponents, becoming the first team to lose its first six and win its next five. It’s no coincidence Vince Young has quarterbacked each of those victories, the latest punctuated by an awe-inspiring 17-play, 99-yard winning drive vs. the Cardinals, in which Young converted three fourth downs (including fourth-and-goal from the 10 with no time left). If you saw it live, you became a believer in VY and the Titans, plain and simple.

Which makes this weekend’s game between the Titans and Colts in Indianapolis absolutely humongous. Chris Johnson (he who is literally making a run at the all-time single-season rushing record) proclaimed on “Inside the NFL” two weeks ago that Tennessee was going to win out, finish 10-6 and become the first team ever to make the playoffs after such a putrid start. If the Titans can find a way to hand Indy its first loss of the year … let’s just say you’ll start seeing replays of that Johnson clip everywhere.

For now, here are the latest playoff projections.

AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
2. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
3. New England Patriots (12-4)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
6. Denver Broncos (10-6)

NFC

1. New Orleans Saints (15-1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
3. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
4. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-7)

Week 13 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

BUFFALO over NY Jets
Philadelphia over ATLANTA
CHICAGO over St. Louis
CINCINNATI over Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee
Denver over KANSAS CITY
New England over MIAMI
PITTSBURGH over Oakland
New Orleans over WASHINGTON
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay
Houston over JACKSONVILLE
San Diego over CLEVELAND
NY GIANTS over Dallas
San Francisco over SEATTLE
Minnesota over ARIZONA
GREEN BAY over Baltimore

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 116-60

Let’s go back to Jan. 21, 2007.  The site is the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, the contest is the AFC Championship.  The Patriots have watched an 18-point lead evaporate and are clinging to a 34-31 advantage.  New England is faced with a third-and-4 at its own 46.  There’s 2:30 remaining in the game and the Colts are down to one timeout. Translation: One more first down and it’s over.

The Patriots fail to convert, as Troy Brown uncharacteristically doesn’t make the same read as Tom Brady and runs an in-route when Brady is anticipating an out.  The Patriots punt the ball back to the Colts and Peyton Manning promptly leads a crisp 7-play, 80-yard championship-clinching drive in 77 seconds. For the Patriots, out the window goes a fourth Super Bowl victory in six years and the title of greatest dynasty of all time.

Yet perhaps more significant, the driving force behind a vengeful drive for perfection is spawned. As a result of that failed third-down and the ensuing culmination of an epic Manning comeback, the Patriots would embark on a furious spending spree that would net their just-a-tad-not-good-enough offense Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.

The message out of Foxboro was clear and decisive: We have taken every measure to ensure that if and when we’re confronted by that scenario again, Manning will NOT get the ball back in his hands.

17 wins, zero losses and 365 days later, the Patriots were back in the AFC Championship Game, and had the Chargers not shocked the world by knocking off the Colts in the Dome, we just may have seen that philosophical change come to fruition.

See, time was, Belichick’s defenses — be it in blizzardy New England or climate-controlled Indianapolis — had the talent, gameplan and execution to go to war with Manning for 60 minutes and come out on top.  Over the last few years the tables have turned, though, partly because the Pats D has aged.

But the real reason is Manning has entered a new zone cerebrally.  Defenses can no longer win a 60-minute battle against him, no matter how crafty the scheme or how precise the execution.  The guy will always make the adjustments.  Coverages that burn him for picks in the first quarter he will look at on his satellite snapshots on the sideline, hatch a new plan of attack and put a quick six on the board when he sees the same coverage again in the fourth quarter.

He did it on the biggest play of the championship drive in ‘07 (a 32-yard sideline pattern to backup tight end Bryan Fletcher) and again last Sunday, recognizing that the Patriot corners were jumping slants and hitches and thus becoming increasingly susceptible to double moves.

Which brings us, at last, to the fourth-and-2 that no one has been able to stop talking about this week. Did Belichick make a mistake? Yes he did. Was the mistake going for it on fourth down? An unequivocal NO.

Forget about the history for a moment and look at Sunday night’s game on its own. The Patriots offense was as dominant and free-moving as it had been at any point during the undefeated season, amassing 477 total yards vs. a depleted Colts secondary. On the other side, the Patriots played inspiring defense for three quarters before beginning to tire, holding Indy to 14 points. Of course, that was exactly the time when Manning implemented his adjustments and started to exploit the fatigued Pats D.

(Side note: A major argument for Belichick punting the ball was that his defense had already stopped Manning in the fourth quarter. That’s barely true. Here are the Colts first three drives of the quarter.

Drive No. 1 — Begins at Indy 21, 5 plays, 79 yards and a touchdown in 2:04.
Drive No. 2 — Begins at Indy 18, 1 play, Manning intercepted by Jonathan Wilhite on a duck that he clearly lost grip of as he released it.
Drive No. 3 — Begins at Indy 21, 6 plays, 79 yards and a touchdown in 1:49.

Watch Drives Nos. 1 and 3 then look at the ball Manning throws to begin Drive No. 2 and tell me he wouldn’t have found the end zone on that possession if it weren’t for a fluky throw. Thus I must respond with an emphatic PUH-LEASE when folks assert the New England defense was capable of stopping the Colts when Manning had 2:08 and a timeout to boot.)

That Belichick opted to go for it and failed is a perfect segway into how — despite making the correct decision on fourth down — Belichick still played a major role in the game being lost. Almost everyone with an opinion will assert that the fourth down miss was the final — and fatal — move by the Hooded Coach in his latest chess match with Manning. It wasn’t.

Aside from the fact that the Patriots had used all of their timeouts (including an unprecedented stoppage before the drive even started because of personnel issues, which ended up being the one they needed to challenge the spot of Kevin Faulk’s reception on fourth down), Belichick didn’t properly articulate the big picture to his defense. I use the words “properly articulate” because he must have been prepared for the eventuality that the conversion attempt could miss, in which case the strategy would become allowing the Colts to score the inevitable touchdown in an expedited fashion so Brady could salvage some time to work his own magic (remember, the Patriots only needed a field goal to win once Indy scored).

For some reason, though, Belichick didn’t relay that message to the defense, and sure enough, it bit him when Brandon Meriweather dragged Joseph Addai down from behind at the 1-yard line on the second play of the ensuing Colts drive. If Meriweather had allowed Addai to walk into the end zone (as he was about to do), Brady would’ve had roughly 1:10 to get his team into field goal range.

If you’re a New England fan, you know what that means. Just like Belichick knew what it meant for Manning to get the ball period, regardless of field position. Dunzo.

Anyone who still believes that Belichick made the call because of hubris or ego or early signs of senility is sadly misinformed. Moreover, they fail to appreciate that this man has probably endured countless sleepless nights ruing his decision to give the ball back to Manning on that fateful fourth down 34 months ago.

Once again, I’ll reiterate: On its own, given the circumstances, he made the right call. When you consider the history involved, and the fact that the demise (if you can even call it that) of the Patriots dynasty can arguably be traced back to that one play in the RCA Dome, there’s only one answer to the question of whether Belichick made the right move in sending Brady back out there.

And the question itself is rhetorical.

Week 11 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

CAROLINA over Miami
DALLAS over Washington
DETROIT over Cleveland
GREEN BAY over San Francisco
Pittsburgh over KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA over Seattle
NY GIANTS over Atlanta
New Orleans over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo
Indianapolis over BALTIMORE
Arizona over ST. LOUIS
San Diego over DENVER
Cincinnati over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets
Philadelphia over CHICAGO
Tennessee over HOUSTON

Last Week: 11-4
Overall: 93-51

1. New Orleans Saints (8-0) With a couple of cupcakes in the Rams and Bucs on the horizon, it’s going to be difficult for the Saints not to look ahead to a monster Monday Night showdown with the Patriots on Nov. 30.

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-0) The Colts have looked mortal the last two weeks, squeaking by the Niners and Texans to remain unbeaten.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) If the Vikings run through Detroit, Seattle and Chicago at home over the next three weeks, they’ll head into December with a great shot at snagging the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) The champs sure look like they’ve hit their stride, but they still have to avenge a Week 3 loss to the Bengals if they want to capture their third straight AFC North title.

5. New England Patriots (6-2) A win in Indy Sunday night will change the entire landscape of the AFC, as the Patriots will become the odds-on favorites for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) It’s a tall task, but the Bengals can all but wrap up the AFC North with a victory over the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday.

7. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) Fanfare aside, the Cowboys have been playing at a high level for the last month, highlighted by a rousing come-from-behind win in Philadelphia last week.

8. Denver Broncos (6-2) The Ravens and Steelers established the blueprint for beating Denver: throttle the short-passing game and force Kyle Orton to beat you deep.

9. San Diego Chargers (5-3) If the Chargers can take care of the Eagles at home on Sunday, they will be in prime position to assume control of the AFC West with a win over the Broncos next week.

10. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) The Cardinals can’t seem to decide whether they’re the team that nearly won the Super Bowl or the one whose most famous player was Rod Tidwell until last year.

Week 10 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

SAN FRANCISCO over Chicago (picked Tuesday)
CAROLINA over Atlanta
MIAMI over Tampa Bay
MINNESOTA over Detroit
NY JETS over Jacksonville
PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
New Orleans over ST. LOUIS
TENNESSEE over Buffalo
Denver over WASHINGTON
Kansas City over OAKLAND
ARIZONA over Seattle
GREEN BAY over Dallas
SAN DIEGO over Philadelphia
New England over INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore over CLEVELAND

Last Week: 8-5
Overall: 82-47

The new NBA season is not even two weeks old, yet the Celtics have already drummed up the lion’s share of controversy so far.

To get things started, Rasheed Wallace said Boston could “definitely” make a run at the ‘96 Bulls and 72 wins. He made the proclamation before having played a single game with his new squad.

Next — less than 48 hours before Opening Night, no less — Glen Davis broke his thumb punching out one of his old high school buddies. The incident occurred in the street at 4 a.m. after a night probably not spent playing backgammon.

Then, in the fourth game of the season vs. New Orleans, Rajon Rondo scrapped with Chris Paul in the second quarter before talking some smack to him after the game while Paul was in the middle of a conversation with Paul Pierce. That caused CP3 to get visibly heated and attempt to seek Rondo out for an encore. And the question became, could you blame him?

Rondo has a reputation for being a pain in the rear, to put it lightly. He earned that m.o. at Kentucky, and as everyone from Danny Ainge to Kevin Garnett to Kobe Byrant can corroborate, he’s carried it into the league. Trash-talking and contempt-breeding, but also exceptional at what he does, Rondo is pretty much a microcosm of the 2009 Celtics (particularly with Sheed on board and KG in axe-to-grind mode).

When you look up and down the roster, it’s hard not to see a team that — with good health — could make Sheed look prophetic when all is said and done. It’s also a group that will clearly not be making many friends throughout the league this year.

Judging from the first six games of the season, a few things stick out. There’s Rondo himself. The kid made a quantum leap in the playoffs last spring, emerging as the premier point guard of the postseason before the Celtics were eliminated (might that have been the essence of his parting shot for Paul the other night?). He seems to have gotten to the point in his career where he’s determined to dominate games with his passing and defense. Scarier yet, he knows he can do it (look no further than the 26 assists and four steals he piled up while taking a total of 10 shots in a pair of wins over the Cavs and Bulls).

With Rondo and a rock-solid Kendrick Perkins flanking the Big Three, the Celtics boast the best starting five in the NBA, bar none. It’s their bench, though, that will ultimately determine whether they can challenge the ‘96 Bulls.

Wallace is Wallace: long and versatile, capable of carrying an offense on any given night he has his stroke. Fellow newcomer Marquis Daniels is a big and strong guard who, in addition to his scoring capabilities, is a two-fold upgrade for the team because he can run point with the second unit and allow Eddie House to move to the two-guard spot and do what he does best: fire away from the perimeter. That’s an eight-man rotation that doesn’t even take into account Davis (who’s on track to return in a month) and Shelden Williams (who’s averaged 7 and 6 getting Big Baby’s minutes).

That depth is what should help the Green overcome their only real weakness, age. It has already, in fact, as the Celtics were able to pull out a 92-90 win in Minnesota in their first of seven road back-to-backs. Playing successive nights in different cities is a tall order for guys like Garnett and Ray Allen, given their NBA odometers. But because they had dispatched of Philadelphia by 31 points the night before, Pierce (31 minutes), Allen (31) and Garnett (23) had the legs to play heavier minutes against the Wolves.

Back to Wallace for a moment. In addition to the depth he adds, an All-Star caliber player coming off the bench, his presence late in games is going to completely alter the defensive strategy opposing coaches employ against the Celtics. In the past, teams could double Garnett, who would be forced to find the open man on the perimeter. That in itself was always a tall order, given how adept Garnett is at finding shooters out of a double team.

But with Sheed on the floor in place of Perkins in crunch time, defenses are going to have play much more straight up against the C’s, who will be able to isolate KG with a trio of shooters surrounding him on the perimeter and Rondo lurking in case of a breakdown. Simply put, it’s going to be exceptionally difficult to defense the Celtics in the closing minutes of tight games.

On the other side, it’s going to be equally hard to score on Boston in close games. Through six games, the Celtics already lead the pack by a landslide in average points allowed (81.5) and are one of three teams holding opponents to 40 percent from the field.

If there is a blueprint for 72 wins, the Celtics have exhibited it thus far. And for what it’s worth, they “only” need to go 66-10 from here on out.

The 2009 NFL season is nearing its midway point with three undefeated teams still standing.  That trio heads the latest power poll, but how does the rest shake out?  Read on.

1. New Orleans Saints (6-0) Turning a 21-point deficit into a 12-point win in Miami last week was a resounding statement on the part of the Saints; too bad Reggie Bush had to soil it with premature talk of an undefeated season.

2. Indianapolis Colts (6-0) Coming off a bye, the Colts are rested and poised to put a hurting on the reeling 49ers.

3. Denver Broncos (6-0) The Broncos have passed all the tests so far, but a midterm exam in the form of a road game vs. the desperate Ravens will determine whether they’re head-of-the-class material at the midway point.

4. New England Patriots (5-2) Mopping up a couple of doormats by a combined 94-7 was fun, but the Patriots will come out of their bye facing a defining stretch (MIA, at IND, NYJ, at NO, at MIA).

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) The Steeler D showed its fangs for the first time all season last week, returning a fumble and pick for scores to knock off the previously undefeated Vikings.

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-1) Things don’t get any easier for Minnesota, who face a monumental task as Brett Favre makes his return to Lambeau Field in enemy colors.

7. New York Giants (5-2) One streak will end for the Giants on Sunday: their two-game losing streak or their four-game winning streak at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) The Bengals bandwagon has made more stops than a city bus, but after their 35-point thrashing of the Bears, everyone’s back on.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) With back-to-back home games vs. the Giants and Cowboys, the Eagles could take command of the three-team race in the NFC East.

10. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) Wtih consecutive wins over the Texans, Seahawks and Giants, Arizona has clearly shaken off the Super Bowl hangover.

Week 8 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

Houston over BUFFALO
CHICAGO over Cleveland
DALLAS over Seattle
DETROIT over St. Louis
INDIANAPOLIS over San Francisco
NY JETS over Miami
NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE over Denver
Jacksonville over TENNESSEE
SAN DIEGO over Oakland
ARIZONA over Carolina
GREEN BAY over Minnesota
NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta

Last Week: 11-2
Overall: 67-36

When all is said and done, Week 6 of the 2009 NFL season will go down as Statement Week. The Saints, Patriots and Broncos all made varying statements, and all were emphatic. Naturally, those statements led to some hefty changes in the power poll.

1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) The Saints — who are on pace to break the Patriots’ 2007 scoring record of 589 points — have outscored their opponents by 99 points through five games, punctuated by a 48-27 undressing of the Giants last Sunday.

2. Indianapolis Colts (5-0) Peyton Manning has thrown for at least 300 yards every game this season, a prime indicator that the Colts will be undefeated entering November for the fourth time in the last five years.

3. Minnesota Vikings (6-0) As wildly entertaining as they’ve been, the Vikings can’t continue to give up 248 yards through the air (ninth-worst in the NFL) and expect to keep winning.

4. Denver (6-0) Knocking off Dallas and New England back-to-back before rolling over the Chargers in San Diego on Monday night has been duly noted by this panel of one.

5. New England (4-2) They’re baaaaaaack….

6. NY Giants (5-1) Just an ugly performance from the vaunted Giants D in the Big Easy last week, one that was probably good to get out of their systems sooner rather than later.

7. Pittsburgh (4-2) Already armed with the league’s No. 2 passing attack, the Steelers can expect to start clicking on all cylinders defensively now that Troy Polamalu is back.

8. Atlanta (4-1) The Falcons have impressed early, but they’ll be tested with four of the next five on the road (including contests at the Saints and Giants).

9. Cincinnati (4-2) After a total breakdown in the second half at home vs. the Texans last week, the verdict is still out on the Bengals.

10. Baltimore (3-3) The Ravens are three plays away from being 6-0 (Mark Clayton’s fourth-down drop at New England, Carson Palmer-to-Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left vs. Cincinnati, Steven Hauschka’s missed field goal with time expiring last week in Minnesota).

Week 7 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

HOUSTON over San Francisco
Green Bay over CLEVELAND
San Diego over KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis over ST. LOUIS
PITTSBURGH over Minnesota
New England over TAMPA BAY (London)
NY Jets over OAKLAND
CAROLINA over Buffalo
CINCINNATI over Chicago
DALLAS over Atlanta
New Orleans over MIAMI
NY GIANTS over Arizona
Philadelphia over WASHINGTON

Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 56-34

Let’s get this straight.  The Angels are the only team with a winning record in the regular season (56-44) against the Yankees over the last decade.  They are the one club that has bumped New York from the playoffs twice in that same time period. Individually and collectively, they’ve gotten to the Yanks one rock in the rotation, CC Sabathia (who will start Games 1, 4 and 7), as good, if not better, than any other lineup in baseball.

Oh, and they vanquished their own demons — those big, bad Red Sox — in truly Red Soxian fashion en route back to the pennant stage of the playoffs.

Yet, given all that meat and potatoes, next to no one has given them a shot against the mighty Bombers from the BX.

This is where it gets interesting, because there’s one group of people — other than Angels fans — that actually believes the Halos might just pull this thing off. Nope, it’s not the nation (better than 60 percent of the country has the Yanks). The sportswriters? Guess again, or simply tweet Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or every single ESPN guy who they like in the series.  Give up?

It’s Yankee fans.

Take it from an ardent Boston supporter and firmly entrenched New Yorker: Yankee fans don’t want anything to do with the Angels.  They haven’t for some time now.  And whether or not they’ll admit it (some will), Yankee fans — gulp! — were actually rooting for the Red Sox to stage another cardiac comeback against Anaheim.

Now, was part of that sentiment rooted in the 2004 ALCS, which was the last time New York was a series (and out) away from the World Series?  Naturally.  The Yankees, just like their fans, have yearned for the last five years to exact cold revenge on Boston for The Collapse.

But surly as they can be, Yanks fans have also become increasingly pragmatic as the years have mounted without the raising of that elusive banner No. 27.  They want to win to again, pure and simple.  Want to have that parade down Broadway for the first time since pre-9/11.  After missing the playoffs for the first time since ever (OK, 1993) last season, in 2009 they started to pick up a whiff of a previously unknown sensation: desperation.

Considering the last eight years have schooled them on the knowledge that success in October is nowhere near as cut and dry as it once seemed, they would have liked nothing more than to have travelled the least bumpy road back to Broadway.  As it was this October, that road would have gone via the Mass Pike and Lansdowne Street.

Who can really dispute that?  Once they hit their stride, the Yankees abused the Red Sox in every which way, winning 9 of 10 after dropping the first eight.  On some days they clobbered them, others they shut them out.  Even snatched a few away late for good measure.

So on the one hand was the team they were certain they would have defeated, and in doing so would have avenged the most humiliating loss in the history of the game.  (Can you say two birds, one stone?)  On the other hand was the one team that has consistently had their number throughout their mortal years and is firing on all cylinders after its most satisfying triumph since Game 7 of the 2002 World Series.

That, ladies and gentlemen, pretty much sums up why the Yankee faithful were either boldly or silently hoping that Jonathan Papelbon could record the final strike in Game 3 of the ALDS and plant the seeds of another Sox rise from the dead.

When that didn’t happen, everyone from Washington Heights to South Jersey began to realize that things weren’t going according to the plan.  Other than those folks, though, no one else has seemed to appreciate the implications of an Angels-Yankees battle for the pennant.

Like the fact that Chone Figgins (.313), Bobby Abreu (.333), Torii Hunter (.544 SLG) and Mike Napoli (.333) have all had their fair share of success against Sabathia.   The fact that Maicer Izturis (.500) and Howie Kendrick (.667) have absolutely owned the burly southpaw, going a combined 13-for-22 vs. CC in their careers.  The fact that as a whole, the Angels lineup has similarly abused A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte.  The fact that their combined average against the three Yankees starters in 2009 is .317.

And above all, the fact that every one of those guys, in addition to every other player in that uniform, will be (and has been) playing every game of this season in memory of their fallen teammate, Nick Adenhart.

This team is on a mission that’s far bigger than baseball, and given the ferocity and determination with which they’ve torn through the ‘09 campaign and the Red Sox in Round 1, it’s simply absurd that so few people believe in them.

The Angels aren’t worried about that, though.  They believe, and that’s really all that matters.

October is always the month in the NFL where the pretenders begin to get peeled away from the contenders. This happens because coaching staffs start to have a sufficient enough sample size to gather intel on certain fast-starters that have caught the league by surprise.

Examples in 2009 are the Broncos, Bengals and Bears, among others. Each one of those squads has cast aside some sort of negative rep (ie the Broncos defense, the Bengals’ finishing capabilities, the Bears’ lack of consistency at quarterback) to go a combined 10-2. However, they can all be be sure that opposing staffs are going to target some tendency or expose some weakness in a facet of their performances that had gone previously undetected.

While there are typically 10 or so teams in each conference entertaining realistic playoff aspirations in October, that number will be pared down to about eight by the beginning of November. The accruing of intel and the adjustments made as a result are why at least one of those aforementioned teams will be a string of losses removed from their September triumphs once the leaves are falling.

Before looking ahead, though, it’s probably wise to revisit some of the big games from Week 4, as it’s not often that there are so many matchups so early in the season that are capable of providing big-picture intel. By my count, there were four such games last week.

Big Game No. 1 — Patriots 27 Ravens 21

Intel gained: This was a classic December-like bout: big plays, lead changes, momentum swings, fourth-down drama, you name it. As much as everyone wanted to write off New England after a near 0-2 start, the fact is the ‘09 Patriots boast a balanced and evolving offense, are solid on special teams and have a defense that has some punch to it. You can say the same about the Ravens, which is why this game was so hotly contested and could have very well gone the other way had Mark Clayton not dropped a fourth-down pass deep in Patriots territory with little time left in the game. There’s no doubt this meeting may end up serving as the precursor to a clash in January.

Big Game No. 2 — Saints 24 Jets 10

Intel gained: Interconference tilts are always interesting, if only for the fact that teams are seldom familiar with one another. From this game emerged some valuable intel, most notably that the Saints — unlike versions 2006-08 — no longer need to put up 35 points a game to win because they actually have a defense. It may not be a Top 10 unit, but it doesn’t have to be, it just needs to have some playmaking ability. The addition of Darren Sharper (5 INT, 2 TDs) has given it just that. On the Jets side, we learned that Mark Sanchez is still a rookie and capable of making some huge mistakes. The NFL learning curve is both harsh and unforgiving.

Big Game No. 3 — Steelers 38 Chargers 28

Intel gained: At 28-0, this game was such a blowout that Steelers fans actually departed Heinz Field en masse before Phillips Rivers decided to go (cue LL Cool J vo) ALL PHILLIP RIVERS!! The guy is a warrior and takes any obstacle as a personal slight, which is why San Diego improbably found itself within a touchdown late. The Chargers still lost the game, though, and the way they’ve cumulatively staggered out of the gates the last few seasons isn’t exactly something to be proud of. However, there’s no disputing the Bolts always end up playing their best football down the stretch. For the Steelers, the beginning of their title defense hasn’t been pretty but they remain one of the elite teams in the league and boast an air attack the likes of which has never been seen in Pittsburgh. While the defense seemed helpless during the Rivers onslaught Sunday night, that’s understandable given the temporary loss of Troy Polamalu.

Big Game No. 4 — Vikings 30 Packers 23

Intel gained: This contest was all about Brett Favre, and rightfully so. Given the game was played at the raucous Metrodome and under the spotlight of Monday Night Football, Favre’s surgical dominance of his former team wasn’t difficult to predict. But with their vaunted defensive line and the ongoing presence of one Adrian Peterson, it’s understood the Vikings are going to be tough to beat this year. It was the Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers, who showed some resolve and refused to back down from the stage. Given all the hoopla, Green Bay put forth an impressive performance, one that would suggest it may indeed be a whole different ballgame when the teams meet again on Nov. 1 at Lambeau Field.

Week 5 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

BUFFALO over Cleveland
Pittsburgh over DETROIT
Dallas over Kansas City
Minnesota over ST. LOUIS
NY GIANTS over Oakland
PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA over Washington
BALTIMORE over Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta
Jacksonville over SEATTLE
Houston over ARIZONA
New England over DENVER
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis
NY Jets over MIAMI

Last Week: 11-3
Overall: 41-21

With September in the rearview, it’s a good time to break out the first edition of the Power Poll. There are some huge games this weekend (BAL at NE, NYJ at NO, SD at PIT, GB at MIN), which means a shakeup is imminent. For the time being, here’s how the Top 10 rounds out after three weeks.

1. Baltimore Ravens (3-0) The Ravens have never had a good offense, let alone a top-ranked one. Only the Saints have scored more points than Baltimore’s balanced attack.

2. New Orleans Saints (3-0) Three wins, two on the road, with a combined margin of victory of 64 points. This is the best team in the NFC until proven otherwise, something the Giants will have their shot at come Week 6.

3. New York Jets (3-0) First the Jets silence the Texans in Houston, then they back up their trash talk in New England before gutting one out vs. the desperate Titans. Hands down, the three most impressive wins of any team.

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-0) Back-to-back primetime victories in Miami and Arizona have those few Indy skeptics shaking their heads in disbelief. Again.

5. New York Giants (3-0) A win vs. the turnover-prone Cowboys stands out because the G-Men crashed the party at new Cowboy Stadium, but holding the Bucs — hapless as they are — to 86 yards of offense last week is pretty  impressive.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) Between Hard Knocks, the stomach punch they endured in Week 1 vs. the Broncos, and the way they’ve responded since — winning at Lambeau Field and pulling off a shocker of a comeback vs. the Steelers — the Bengals deserve some R-E-S-P-E-C-T.

7. Minnesota Vikings (3-0) You can only beat who’s on your schedule, but the fact remains the Vikings drew the Browns and Lions before needing a for-the-ages Favre missile against San Francisco to polish off a somewhat dubious 3-0 start.

8. New England Patriots (2-1) Even without Welker, the Pats offense of old returned vs. the Falcons last week. Sure, they had issues getting the ball into the end zone, but 445 yards of total offense is still 445 yards of total offense.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) The Eagles have weathered the early storm in the face of injuries to McNabb and Westbrook, not to mention the ongoing Vick saga.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) If Jeff Reed makes either a 38 or 43-yard field goal Week 2 in Chicago, the Steelers are 2-1 and nobody’s panicking.

Week 4 Picks (home teams in CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore
WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay
Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE
HOUSTON over Oakland
CHICAGO over Detroit
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND
INDIANAPOLIS over Seattle
NY Giants over KANSAS CITY
NEW ORLEANS over NY Jets
Buffalo over MIAMI
Dallas over DENVER
SAN FRANCISCO over St. Louis
PITTSBURGH over San Diego
MINNESOTA over Green Bay

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 30-18

In exactly three weeks, on Oct. 16, we will arrive at the three-year anniversary of one of the great postgame podium tirades of all time.  That would be Dennis Green’s microphone-pounding, “THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!” gem of a rant after the Cardinals dropped a Monday night game to the Bears in 2006.

Alas, there were no such gift-wrapped Coors Light sound bites from Bill Belihick after the Patriots shockingly fell to the Jets or from Andy Reid after the Eagles were annihilated by the Saints at home last Sunday.

But take your pick, be it New England or Philly, the Titans getting beat by the Texans, the Steelers getting bumped by the Bears, the 49ers’ manhandling of the Seahawks or the Bengals’ triumph at Lambeau field, Week 2 of the 2009 NFL season — through the eyes of the Belichicks, Mike Tomlins, Jeff Fishers et al — might has well have been renamed the Sunday of  “THEY WEREN’T WHO WE THOUGHT WERE!”

With that in mind, and understanding that Week 2 always boasts the wackiest and most unpredictable slate of games, let’s put the microscope on a couple of the teams that sure as hell weren’t who we thought they were last week, and attempt to make a long-term diagnosis.

New York Jets

Why they weren’t: There’s no doubt the Jets have one of the best defenses in the league.  Bringing in Rex Ryan to mastermind its schemes and Bart Scott to fill the role of key cog means the New York front seven won’t be sneaking up on anybody this year.  Offensive coordinators know what they’re in store for.  It’s on the other side of the ball that the Jets have defied preconceived notions and turned heads.  Namely, the play of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.  I dare say he managed the game vs. the Patriots (14-for-22, 163 yds, 1 TD, 101.3 rating) in a very Bradyesque (circa 2001) fashion.  He withstood the initial burst from the Pats D without making a mistake and capitalized when he had a chance to finish a drive.  A second consecutive impressive performance out of the gates for the 22-year-old.

Diagnosis: With a Top 5 defense and an offense that takes care of the ball, the Jets are here to stay.  Sanchez seems to have transitioned seamlessly from a high-flying dynamic attack at USC into a pro quarterback who understands how to maximize his defense’s potential by managing the game.

New England Patriots

Why they weren’t: Without taking too much away from the Jets, there were two factors that prevented the Patriots from extending their streak at the Meadowlands.  The first was the crowd.  These folks showed up for their team and didn’t let up, as Tom Brady was whistled for four delay of game penalties and the Patriots as a whole were affected by the sustained noise level throughout the game.  The second was the absence of Wes Welker.  Against a Ryan defense bringing stunts and pressure from all angles, Brady needed his go-to guy because he frequently had less than two seconds to get rid of the ball.  There is no one better operating out of the slot and finding the pocket of free space upon recognizing the blitz than Welker.  Because of that, he’s Brady’s most valuable receiver, and there was just no way the Patriots offense could cope with Ryan’s schemes sans Welker.

Diagnosis: It’s evidently going to take some time for Brady to regain his confidence in the pocket, but the real reason why the Patriots are close to being 0-2 has been their lack of discipline: 17 penalties for 134 yards in two games.  Belichick doesn’t put up with mental errors.  Despite the way they’ve started, you can be sure New England will finish the season as one of the least penalized teams.  They’ve endured rough starts before and rebounded to win Super Bowls.  Keep that in mind.

San Francisco 49ers

Why they weren’t: We’ve known the recent incarnation of 49ers as NFC doormats that have had no viable quarterback to lead their team.  Yet the 2009 outfit, with Shaun Hill at the helm, marched into Arizona, one of the toughest places to win on the road last season, and silenced the massive crowd of the defending NFC champs.  They followed that up by routing the Seahawks, a team widely believed to be poised to regain control of the NFC West with a healthy offense this season.  That offense was throttled by a San Francisco defense that’s becoming more elite with each passing Sunday.  Patrick Willis is a monster in the middle; he’s already one of the best linebackers in the game and he’s only 24.  Takeo Spikes and Nate Clements have helped mold the unit into a legitimate force over the last season-plus.  And on the offensive side, Hill doesn’t need to much more than take care of the ball because Frank Gore is capable of running through anyone.

Diagnosis: A change in mentality can’t be underestimated in the NFL.  A losing mentality becomes insidious, which is why new Niners coach Mike Singletary sought to snuff that out immediately upon taking the helm after Week 7 last season.  Through his fiery style (and rich history as an frightening linebacker for the Bears in the 80s), Singletary made the team believe it could win again, and the results have spoken for themselves.  San Francisco is 7-4 under Singletary and has won seven of its past nine.

Philadelphia Eagles

Why they weren’t: As much as the Eagles have perplexed everyone, it’s tough to read too much into their first two games.  They blitzed the Panthers when Jake Delhomme was doing his best reenactment of his WPEBAQ (worst performance ever by a quarterback) showing in the playoffs against Arizona last January.  Then they got smoked by a Saints offense that has looked like it’s been playing by AFL rules the first couple of weeks.  They were also forced to play that game without Donovan McNabb.  Defensively, the spirit of Jim Johnson remains entrenched schematically, but the players themselves must adjust to life without Brian Dawkins.

Diagnosis: The Eagles probably aren’t four touchdowns better than the Panthers and surely aren’t four touchdowns worse than the Saints.  Their true identity lies somewhere in between, which is to say this is still a solid football team, albeit one that needs its quarterback to be healthy and productive if it wants to entertain any notions of another playoff run.

Week 3 picks (home teams in CAPS)

Green Bay over ST. LOUIS
DETROIT over Washington (not a typo)
MINNESOTA over San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND over Atlanta
PHILADELPHIA over Kansas City
Tennessee over NY JETS
BALTIMORE over Cleveland
NY Giants over TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON over Jacksonville
Chicago over SEATTLE
New Orleans over BUFFALO
Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI
SAN DIEGO over Miami
OAKLAND over Denver
ARIZONA over Indianapolis
DALLAS over Carolina

Last week: 6-10
Overall: 19-13