Ballgame’s Points

I know, it doesn’t look good.

Manny tested positive for a banned substance and is not appealing the automatic 50-game suspension he received as a result.

The statement he issued was opaque and dodgy, which is not a surprise considering it was likely penned by Scott Boras.

The media response has been ferocious, with everyone from hot air extraordinaire Bill Plaschke to revered baseball scribe Jayson Stark sticking their fangs into Manny.

The rest of us, meanwhile, are left to mull over everything that has happened in the last 24 hours and decide if Manny’s a steroid user.  I’ve been asked point blank the question a few times in the last day, and my response in each circumstance has been, “I’m not ready to believe that.”

I’m still not, despite all the evidence to the contrary.  Despite the suspect “personal health issue”, the peculiarity of the doctor’s Florida location, and the fact that the drug in question is frequently used by steroid users coming off a cycle.

I’m not ready to believe that we can lump Manny in with Steroid Abuser A through Z, because since when was Manny ever lumpable (not sure if that’s a word) with anyone?

The man is a different breed, one of a kind.  While that doesn’t exonerate him from present accusations, his situation can’t be sweepingly tied to Palmeiro’s wagging finger or Sosa’s linguistic amnesia.

Could Manny’s statement be a bold face lie?  Yes, yes it could.

But be careful not to underestimate Manny’s overly dependent nature.  We’re talking about a guy who nearly backed out of a $160 million contract with the Red Sox upon learning that his favorite clubhouse attendant in Cleveland wasn’t ready to uproot himself in order to accompany the slugger to Boston.  A guy who on occasion needs to be told how many balls and strikes there are when he’s in the batter’s box.

So is it that far-fetched to think that maybe Manny did actually have a medical problem he wasn’t very proud of and sought treatment outside of the MLB web?  That he blindly entrusted a doctor to prescribe him something he assumed would have no ulterior consequences?

The sentiment among baseball people is that’s hogwash.  That players have had far too long to adapt to MLB’s drug testing policy and parameters.

They are right, but they’ve also been right about many things in the past that have been applicable to everyone BUT Manny (like for instance, showing up at Spring Training on time, not faking injuries to get a day off, not holding teams hostage over contract negotiations etc.).

They never got through to Manny then, so why suddenly is the SOP (standard operating procedure) for ballplayers relevant to Manny now?

Like it or not, the murky and mercurial Ramirez has always had a double standard applied to him, and that shouldn’t change just because his latest shady act has gotten him bounced for two months.

As I said, I still don’t know what to think.  Manny may or may not be guilty of the crime he’s now paying 50 games and over $7 million for.

But if he wants to begin the arduous task of clearing his name and proving his innocence, it’s going to have to begin with a marked deviation from the Manny SOP.  Which is to say murkiness is going to have to give way to transparency.

He says he saw a physician for a personal health issue.  Who’s the doc?  What was the issue?

He claims to have passed “about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons”.  Let’s hear more about those.

He issued a written apology to the Dodgers organization and fan base, but has yet to be seen or heard from in the flesh.

Bottom line is Manny must come out of his shell like never before if he’s to stand a chance against an enraged baseball populace.

Until then, I know … it doesn’t look good.

I left my friend’s place after Game 6 of Celtics-Bulls last night, exhausted and in a malaise.  My memory of what had just transpired — usually crystal clear — was so clouded and fragmented, my thoughts so blurred, that I had trouble finding a subway station I’ve used countless times.

After making the 30-minute journey back home — during which I must have looked like a zombie to strangers around me — I watched highlights of the game.  Actually strike that, highlights of the battle.  Because let’s face it, this war of attrition was the closest mind-body struggle between two adversaries one will ever see outside of the ring.

There was Rondo and Hinrich’s undercard.  The blood gushing from Pierce’s nose.   Ray’s 51 (FIFTY-ONE) on the scorecard.  Miller’s revenge.  Salmons’ onslaught.  Baby’s fadeaway.  The ice in Ray’s veins.  Pierce’s almost-steal and knockout of the challenger.  Noah’s indescribable flurry to stagger the champs.  Rose’s KOS (knockout swat).

I watched all this for a second and third time, and tried to gather my thoughts.  Wasn’t happening.  Tried to sleep.  Nope.

I turned on the TV, and what happened to be on HBO?  A documentary of the “Thrilla in Manila” between Ali and Frazier.  It was an intense and jarring recounting of possibly the greatest fight ever.   It was also the only suitable way to give some perspective to a mind-blowing basketball game.

It’s often too easy to get swept up in The Moment, and everyone — from players to media to fans — is predisposed to this phenomenon from time to time.  It’s human nature: When we witness something extraordinary, precedents and past-happenings become puny in comparison.  Typically though, upon reflection, the grandeur of an amazing occurrence in sports gets reduced once The Moment has passed, nerves have settled, and rational thought has reentered the equation.

Let’s not mince words: Ali-Frazier III has stood the test of time as a seminal moment in sports that will never be matched.  Just seeing Frazier, Frazier’s son, Ali’s team, writers and historians chronicling this epic fight, you can sense that wherever they were on that day in 1975, they have remained since in spirit.

For 14 rounds in sweltering heat, two of the world’s finest fighters waged a war that nearly killed them both.  There is no more telling quote than from Frazier, who when asked if he would have risked his life to go out for the 15th and final round, said, “Yeah.”

When the documentary ended, it was just after two in the morning, and I was finally lucid.  I realized that Ali-Frazier comparisons get thrown around FAR too generously, and that there will never be a sporting event — in boxing or otherwise — than could garner such a comparison.

But as a metaphorical script?  That’s a different story.  That’s where Celtics-Bulls VI steps in.

Early in the fourth quarter Chicago went on a run, unleashing a series of blows that had the champs staggering (similar to Frazier’s middle-round assault on Ali).  The Celtics took the Bulls’ punches, and returned in kind, with a crowd-silencing 18-0 run that turned a 10-point deficit into an 8-point lead (akin to Ali’s blistering sustained attack in rounds 12 to 14).

Naturally there are inconsistencies, no more significant than the fact that the champs lost the game whereas the champ won/survived the fight.

But a series of plays in the last minute of the third overtime truly gave this basketball game the feel of a heavyweight bout — epitomizing the desperate chaos that ensues in the waning seconds of a final round.

With the game tied at 123, Pierce jumped a pass and knocked the ball into the backcourt, seemingly destined for some series-clinching thunder.  But he stumbled at midcourt and the ball careened out of bounds, giving it back to the Bulls.

Then, after a defensive stand, Pierce had the ball back in his hands at the top of the key.  He went to drive left, and feeling the double team coming, tried to whip a pass to Brian Scalabrine in the corner.

It was then that Joakim Noah let loose the proverbial final combination: First he intercepted the ball and tapped it towards center court.  Next he picked it up and dribbled the rest of the floor — trailed by an exhausted Pierce the entire way.  By the time Pierce caught up to the rumbling seven-footer, he had thrown down a tremendous flush and drawn the sixth and final foul on the C’s captain.  He nailed the free throw to boot, putting the finishing touches on the finishing barrage.

So here we are, six games, seven overtimes and one epic script into a bona fide first-round heavyweight basketball bout.

Game 7 is Saturday in Boston, a game that will double as the most significant affair ever contested at such an early juncture of the never-ending tournament that is the NBA playoffs.

Everyone who’s anyone will be there for the epic finale.  Maybe even Kevin Garnett.

And I’m thinking he may not be in a suit.

Heady times in Boston once again.

The Red Sox and Yankees are set to tango at Fenway in their inaugural ‘09 series beginning Friday. The Patriots will be on the clock Saturday, as the 2009 NFL Draft fires up. And once the Celtics take care of the Bulls, both the Green and Bruins will be appearing in their respective conference semifinals for the first time since 1992.

A few thoughts about each…

AM I THE only one yearning for an infusion of hate into Sox-Yanks? Isn’t that what made this whole thing the preeminent ongoing sports drama, way back when?

You ask any Red Sox or Yankees fan what they remember most clearly about the rivalry in recent past — apart from The Comeback — and a Boston fan will say Varitek’s Glove in A-Rod’s Face, while a New York fan will recount Pedro’s Body Slam of Zimmer.  These enduring images characterized and defined the rivalry, made it drop-everything, must-see television 19 or 26 times annually.  ESPN and Fox salivated all over it.  Passionate followers cleared their schedules and did everything they could to score the hottest ticket in town.  Casual fans tuned in because, hell, anything could happen.  No matter who you were, Red Sox-Yankees always found a way to find you.

Nowadays?  The media outlets aren’t nearly as enthralled, which is largely a reflection of popular sentiment.  And quite frankly, it’s because they have barely anything to hype.  The big storyline going into this weekend surrounds Joba Chamberlain and David Ortiz.  Joba, who has thrown at Kevin Youkilis on a few occasions, was called out by Big Papi, if you can even classify it as such.  Ortiz basically said that since Joba has shown head-hunting proclivities, he’s going to find it difficult to gain respect throughout the league.  (His comments contained almost as much vitriol as a certain drive-by argument…)

Would it be that out of line if Big Papi had said something just a tad more incendiary, to you know, send a message? I for one would love to see Joba hurl some chin music at Ortiz, watch Papi step out of the box and tell Joba to watch his corn-fed behind, then blast one into the center field bleachers.

IT’S PRETTY MUCH impossible to predict what the Patriots will do come draft day, which is why it’s so much fun tossing around various conspiracy theories.  Using the last two drafts as indicators, there’s truly no telling what Bill Belichick is up to.

Two years ago, the Randy Moss-to-New England rumors had come and gone before the draft, yet Belichick pulled a cat of out a hat in New York and in came Moss for (even at the time) a laughable fourth-round pick.  And a year ago, clearly deviating from his track record of only selecting linemen high in the first round, Belichick traded down from the seventh to tenth overall pick and selected linebacker Jerod Mayo.

While the possibility of Julius Peppers becoming a Patriot has been declared dead for all intents and purposes, it is for that very reason that it could still be alive.  When Peter King reports that New England is looking to trade its first-round and a second-round pick to move into the low top 10, but professes to have little idea as to why, the theories are free to fly.

All that’s for sure are the following facts: 1) New England was initially offering a second-round pick for Peppers, which was not enough, 2) Having shored up their secondary (signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and running game (Fred Taylor), the outside linebacker position is the Patriots’ only glaring weakness, 3) A low top 10 pick is an excellent bargaining chip, given the caliber of talent available there, as well as the slightly smaller financial obligation necessary to sign the player.

If Peter King doesn’t have a bead on what the Patriots will do, it’s legitimately anyone’s guess.  But that’s what makes following Belichick’s moves on draft day so intriguing.

THE CELTICS WERE the champs again on Thursday night in Chicago.  After a pair of scintillating games at the Garden that could have gone either way, Paul Pierce took command of Game 3 from the outset and the Celtics defense suffocated the suddenly overmatched Bulls all night.

Even with Kevin Garnett on the bench in a suit, it was a vintage performance from the Green on the defensive end, as they held Chicago to under 41 percent shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  For the first time in the series, Pierce played like the best player on the court.  And Rajon Rondo, who battled to a stalemate with Derrick Rose in Boston, took decisive control of the point guard showdown, racking up 20 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals.

This series may still be extended — Chicago was 28-13 at home before Thursday — but for the Bulls, there’s ultimately no recovering from such a colossal beatdown in their own building.  Especially against the champs.

I HAVE NEVER written about the Bruins, because 1) I don’t know enough about hockey to throw my weight around, and 2) the Bruins have done nothing but disappoint for a very long time.  They infamously blew a 3-1 series lead against Montreal as the No. 1 seed in 2004, then attempted to reverse the script last year as the underdog, before falling to the Habs in seven.

All I remember from last year’s playoffs was how a few choice Boston crackpots decided to beat up visiting Montreal fans leaving the Garden.  It was an unnecessary and classless thing to do, though it paled in comparison to the disgraceful act staged by Canadiens fans before Game 3 Monday in Montreal: booing the American national anthem.

It was fitting that the Bruins proceeded to snuff out Montreal’s season with a pair of systematic thrashings, while formalizing a tidy four-game sweep in which Boston outscored the Habs 17-6.   I can officially say I’m back on the bandwagon, and am eagerly anticipating the Bruins’ projected second-round matchup with the New York Rangers.

To bring this rambling column full circle:  Maybe a little Bruins-Rangers is just what the doctored ordered for a suffering Boston-New York rivalry.

(Unless of course Joba decides to throw one behind Big Papi Friday night.)

Tom Brady might be sitting courtside at TD Banknorth Garden on Saturday — when the Celtics officially begin their title defense — but unlike last postseason, he will not be the most important guy in street clothes next to the Celtics bench.

Unfortunately, that honor will go to the Big Ticket.

What many feared last month after Kevin Garnett’s brief and unsuccessful return from a knee strain is now a bitter reality: The MVP of the Celtics, Mr. Anything’s Possible himself, is out indefinitely.

We have all witnessed how the fire burns inside this unparalleled athlete. We saw him spill his guts every night for 12 years in Minnesota. We were awed when he brought his act to Boston and did the same over a surreal 97-game stretch last season; a series of extended encores punctuated by a world championship. And we were grateful when a long-suffering basketball town was returned to its rightful perch atop the hoops world.

Now, with 14 years and well over a thousand games under his belt, it appears his heart and passion for the game have proven to be more enduring than the knees entrusted with carrying all that extra weight, literal and otherwise.

There are still no reports of structural damage in his injured right knee, just a career’s worth of wear and tear of the highest degree. (Seems like the term “wear and tear” grossly understates the matter, no?) He hasn’t been officially ruled out of the entire playoffs, but it’s probably wise to keep expectations at a minimum going forward.

It’s tough not to be down at this point. When KG was healthy, the defending champs — spurred by an historic 27-2 start — were the story of the league.

Yet not long after that run, the main plot of 2008-09 season shifted away from the Celtics and towards Lebron and Kobe, Cleveland and LA.  Garnett went down, the Cavs were unbeatable at home (falling only to LA), and the Lakers had wrapped up the West before MLK Day.

While Cavs-Lakers was accordingly billed as the surest Finals since, well Lakers-Celtics, and would’ve had a good chance of happening even if KG was healthy, it’s a damned shame the Green won’t get a real shot at defending their crown. Anyone who tells you Cavs-Celtics would have been a foregone conclusion with Garnett back is full of it.

Garnett’s loss is a striking blow to a team that wore the championship belt and bullseye all year, battled multiple injuries throughout, integrated new players, and still emerged with 62 victories. It was an admirable first chapter to the team’s first title defense since 1987. Now, with the end game pretty much determined, all that’s left to see is how it concludes.

I don’t think it’s optimistic to believe the Celtics will fulfill their end of the bargain and give Lebron the rematch he’s wanted — albeit under different circumstances.

This team has dealt with a ton of adversity.  In addition to Garnett being sidelined for 25 games, key reserves Leon Powe (12 games), Tony Allen (36 games) and Brian Scalabrine (43 games) all missed significant time.  That enabled Glen Davis to grow into his skin, and helped accelerate the transition for newcomers Mikki Moore and Stephon Marbury.

Add to that Rajon Rondo’s emergence as an elite point guard and Kendrick Perkins’  continued development (both enter the playoffs as unquestionably better players than last year), and there is a solid and experienced supporting cast around the now Big Two, who are not to be forgotten.

Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are among the proudest players in the game, and will make it their personal mission to carry this team as far as they can.  Even with rings — and Pierce with a Finals MVP — both can vividly recall the days when they were some combination of underestimated and underappreciated.

Allen has been channeling Jesus Shuttlesworth since last year’s Eastern Conference finals.  He will take it up a notch.

As for Pierce, let’s just say a lot of people didn’t take him seriously last year when he proclaimed he was the best player in the world.  He may have overstepped a bit, but after manning up and dismissing Lebron and Kobe on the biggest stage, his point held water.

For the two most important months of the 2007-08 season, Paul Pierce was the best player in the world.  He’s always relished having something to prove, the greats always do.  Now he does (again).

The Celtics likely won’t make it back to the promised land without their leader, but that doesn’t change the fact that the belt is theirs until somebody rips it off them.

Knowing this team and its coach, knowing Allen and the reigning Finals MVP, I wouldn’t bank on anyone not named Lebron or Kobe taking the honors.

Need a comprehensive preview of the 2009 MLB season?  Want to know who’s going to make it through the gauntlet that leads to October?  Itching to find out which teams will rise out of nowhere to become legitimate threats?  Wondering how all the hardware will be distributed?

Well then, please read on.

AL East Champions — Boston Red Sox (96-66)

The Red Sox have been the team of the decade thus far.  They’ve won at least 93 games six times, played for four pennants and hung two banners.

Boston’s success has revolved around developing homegrown talent through its farm system (Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon), and filling in the holes through trades (Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell before the 2006 season) and free agency (recent signings of John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Takashi Saito).

Combine that with a prolonged dedication to defensive proficiency, and you see how drastically the core philosophy of the franchise has changed in the last 10 years.  The Red Sox are a team built for the long run, both the grind of a 162-game season, as well as the future.

While the health of cogs David Ortiz, J.D. Drew and Lowell will be closely monitored throughout the ‘09 season, Boston’s pitching and defense is good enough to make up for any offensive shortcomings.

The Red Sox will retake the AL East and make another run deep into October.

AL Central Champions — Cleveland Indians (89-73)

If the Indians have taught us anything in recent past, it’s that they are all about expectation.  When they’ve avoided it (2005 and 2007), they’ve flourished (average of 95 wins).  When they’ve encountered it (2006 and 2008), they’ve flopped (average of 80.5 wins).

Now that CC Sabathia is a distant memory and Fausto Carmona is fresh off a back-to-earth ‘08 season, there is very little expectation in Cleveland.  Though that’s not to say there isn’t a quality ballclub there.  With a 26-year-old MVP candidate in Grady Sizemore at the top of the lineup, the Tribe will plate runs.  Versatile newcomer Mark DeRosa will complement the likes of Ryan Garko and Jhonny Peralta to form a solid one through nine.  And remember the name Shin-Soo Choo (1.038 OPS after the All-Star break last year).

The pitching staff is a question mark, especially given that no one is banking on a repeat of Cliff Lee’s 22-3 campaign of a year ago.  But then again, few are counting on much from Carmona, who was shaky and broken down last year after a 2007 season that saw him throw 230 innings (he had never thrown more than 173 innings at any level).  Given that he relies primarily on a hard sinker, so long as he consistently locate his pitches, there’s no reason to believe he won’t bounce back with a big season in ‘09.

As for the bullpen, which was nothing short of a train wreck last year, Joe Borowski — along with his 89-mph fastball and countless blown saves — is out as Indians closer.  That alone is cause for elation among Cleveland fans.  New fireman Kerry Wood, health issues notwithstanding, is going to totally transform the vibe of that bullpen, not to mention the late-game managing strategies of Eric Wedge.

With a well-rounded club and scant expectation, the Tribe will do what they do best: fly under the radar en route to the postseason.

AL West Champions — Oakland A’s (88-74)

They are turning back the clocks in Oakland.  The days of Billy Beane jettisoning any and all valuable commodities for prospects are over.  By signing Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra, and bringing back old friend Jason Giambi, Beane’s A’s are going for it.  Now.

They will be relying on a young and largely unproven rotation, headlined by an ace, Justin Duchscherer, who is not likely to post another sub-3.00 ERA.  But as opposed to last year, the Oakland hurlers will not take the mound knowing they must totally shut down the opposition to win, because their offense (worst in the AL in 2008) finally has the ability to plate a significant amount of runs.

Don’t underestimate how a change in clubhouse culture can affect play on the field as well.  With a veteran-laden, high-powered offense and a throwback leader in Giambi, the A’s clubhouse will be a light and comfortable atmosphere in which the young arms can mature without significant pressure.  Beane’s well-established track record of developing pitching would indicate that one or more from the top-prospect trio of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Vincent Mazzaro will make the leap in ‘09.

The injury to projected closer Joey Devine is a blow to the bullpen, but the Oakland relief corps will still feature a variety of quality options (including Brad Ziegler, Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz).

Behind the new bats and a new mentality, the A’s will recapture the AL West after a two-year hiatus.

AL Wild Card — New York Yankees (94-68)

The new Steinbrenner contingent invested nearly half a billion dollars into their enterprise.  How then is it possible that the Yankees will finish as a second-place team?  Because the Red Sox have better pitching.  That doesn’t mean the Yankees staff isn’t formidable, because it is.  For whatever reason, CC Sabathia is not a fast-starter.  While his April struggles are dominating the headlines in New York right now, over the long run his poor debut in pinstripes — however extended it may be — will be old news once he wins 20 games and finishes at or near the top of the Cy Young balloting.

It wouldn’t be prudent to hold A.J. Burnett — the other high-priced newcomer to the New York rotation — in the same regard as Sabathia.  Last year marked only the second time in the last eight seasons that Burnett started 30-plus games (he’s averaged just under 24 starts per season in that span).  If Yankee fans aim for 20-25 starts from Burnett, they won’t be disappointed, because when he does pitch, he’s very good (3.81 career ERA, 8.40 K/9).

Behind Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain is slated to be the fifth starter.  Everyone knows he’s much better than that.  Considering the questions surrounding Pettitte (who will be 37 in June and posted a career-worst 4.57 ERA last year) and Wang (who spent considerable time on the DL), Joba is really only the fifth starter in theory.

Whatever hurdles the pitching staff encounters, the Yankees offense will more than make up for.  Sticking Mark Teixeira in the middle of that lineup is going to pay immediate dividends, and will be even more devastating once Alex Rodriguez returns.

The Yankees will be back in the playoffs.

Not Quite Enough

Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) Hands down the third-best team in the AL, but the rules say only two from the same division can make it.

Los Angeles Angels (87-75) Too much uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation, compounded by aging key contributors, will ultimately stall the Halos.

Sleepers

Texas Rangers Opposing staffs better hope to be throwing their frontline guys when clashing with a Texas offense that is genuinely fearsome.

Kansas City Royals Studs in the rotation and a sneaky-good lineup should have the Royals sniffing their first winning season since 2003.

Awards

Cy Young Josh Beckett

MVP Grady Sizemore

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NL East Champions — New York Mets (92-70)

A new year, a new stadium, and new hopes in Flushing.  Gone is the hex-house that was Shea Stadium.  Citi Field is the new home of the Metropolitans.

Just like recent versions of the Mets, the ‘09 one will feature an offense with considerable speed and power, as well as a deep bench.  The recent signing of Gary Sheffield gives added depth to the corner outfield tandem of Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church.  With one of those three coming off the bench every night, as well as Fernando Tatis and defensive specialist Alex Cora, Jerry Manuel will have versatile guys at his disposal late in games.

Late in games.  Those three words have haunted Mets fans over the last three years, as the staple of the Mets bullpen has been blowing leads late.  Just as Shea Stadium was dismantled in the offseason, so too was the New York relief corps.  Out went failed setup men Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez, and in came documented closers J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez.  No longer will the eighth and ninth innings be disaster central for the Mets.  To the contrary, in fact.

That swings the onus back to the starting rotation, which will be strong if John Maine and Oliver Perez can sufficiently back up frontline starters Johan Santana (already a far more vocal leader this year) and Mike Pelfrey (dominant in stretches last year).  Add it all up and the Mets will be leading many games late — and locking them down at the end.

The revamped bullpen will be the main reason why the Mets get over the hump and back to the postseason.

NL Central Champions — Chicago Cubs (98-64)

It’s tough to say what’s more difficult for Cubs fans to endure: knowing their team is guaranteed to be bad, or knowing their team is guaranteed to be the best — and fearfully counting down the days until the playoffs begin.  In years past, it was the former that Cubs fans had to come to grips with.  After consecutive NL Central crowns and a pair of embarrassing sweeps in the playoffs, it is now the latter.

There is, however, no getting around the fact that for the Cubs, the 2009 regular season is going to serve as nothing more than a 162-game warmup for a five-game series in October.  Remember the Cleveland Indians of the late 90s?  That’s the last team that was as much of an obvious runaway favorite as this year’s Cubs.

Chicago added Milton Bradley to a lineup that scored 855 runs last year, 56 more than any other team in the NL.  They will have a full year of Sean Marshall (and not Jason Marquis) as the fifth starter.  If Rich Harden can approach the 25 starts he made last year, they will have one of the game’s filthiest pitchers as their fourth starter.  Kevin Gregg is the new closer, with nasty setup man Carlos Marmol ready and willing to take the reigns when necessary.

The Cubs are going to win a lot of games, and for better or worse, with each one the disturbing reality of October is going to become a little more apparent.

NL West Champions — Los Angeles Dodgers (89-73)

Traditionally, when a team loses its ace and closer, panic tends to set in.  That was initially the case for the Dodgers when Derek Lowe signed with the Braves and Takashi Saito headed east to Boston.  Until the beginning of March, the Dodgers were nothing more than a young team with promise and a suspect pitching staff.

That is, until Scott Boras ended his four-month standoff with general manager Ned Colletti and agreed to terms on a new contract for Manny Ramirez.

Just like that the Dodgers offense transformed into one of the NL’s best.  Of course all this is old news to Dodgers fans.  Their team was mired in mediocrity for the first two-thirds of last season before Manny arrived.  After Ramirez abused opposing pitching staffs over the final two months of the season and into October, it became abundantly clear that one player can indeed be the difference between middle-of-the-pack status and bona fide contender.

While the offseason was replete with angst in Tinseltown, Manny’s presence has settled all nerves.  The pitching staff still has issues (Is Chad Billingsley a true No. 1? Can Clayton Kershaw take the next step so soon?  As the full-time closer, will Jonathan Broxton avoid the horrid stretches that have plagued him in the past?), but what was proven last year was a little Manny can go a long way.

How about a full season of Manny?  You know the answer.

NL Wild Card — Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)

By virtue of their dash to a world championship last fall, the Phillies changed a lot of perceptions about their franchise and city.

As for their chances of a repeat, let’s just say recent history isn’t on their side.  Of the eight World Series champions this decade, only the 2001 Yankees made it back to the Fall Classic.  Four failed to even qualify for the playoffs in the year of their title defense.

The Phillies will be able to avoid becoming the fifth team on that list, because their offense features three MVP candidates and a newcomer (Raul Ibanez) who is a run-producing machine.  They will have to score a boatload of runs, as their starting rotation is full of holes.  After Cole Hamels (who threw 262 1/3 innings last year and has been dealing with elbow problems), the Phils top three will round out with Brett Myers (erratic) and Jamie Moyer (46 years old).

Having Brad Lidge to close games is key.  His consistency and a potent offense will get Philadelphia to where it wants to be: in the postseason with a chance to defend its crown.

Not Quite Enough

Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) Playing a full season in a division with Manny (five HR, 1.588 OPS in 12 games vs. ARI last year) will be the D-backs’ undoing.

Sleepers

San Francisco Giants A talented and well-rounded rotation will have the Giants breathing down the necks of the contenders out west.

Cincinnati Reds With young aces and young sluggers headlining in Cincy, the Reds will lack consistency but prove to be a headache for the duration.

Awards

Cy Young Johan Santana

MVP Manny Ramirez

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Playoff Picks

ALDS

Red Sox over A’s; Yankees over Indians

NLDS

Mets over Dodgers; Cubs over Phillies

ALCS

Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS

Mets over Cubs

World Series

Red Sox over Mets

PLAY BALL.

The 2008 Red Sox were a deep and balanced team that fell just shy of the World Series.  If it weren’t for some big-time pitching from Matt Garza and David Price in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Rays, the Sox probably would have hung their third pennant in five years.

Understanding how close they had come, the Boston front office entered the offseason with the intention of shoring up the gaping hole in the middle of the lineup left by Manny Ramirez.  They dutifully pursued Mark Teixeira, only to be dissed at the last moment.

With the big prize off the market, Theo Epstein took a page from the Patriots handbook, signing a handful of veterans (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli) — undervalued by their former teams for various reasons — to modest and incentive-laden deals.  These new faces have fortified the established nucleus from last year’s 101-win team.

As Opening Day 2009 inches closer, the Red Sox will begin the season with an even deeper squad than a year ago.  Let’s hand out some preseason grades.

Starting Pitching: A-minus

Led by the emergence of Jon Lester, the starting pitching was solid last year, with two caveats: Josh Beckett was not the Cy Young-caliber ace he had been in 2007, and there was never an established fifth starter.

As everyone knows, Beckett battled a strained oblique that dogged him repeatedly late last season.  That injury appears to be old news, as Beckett started more games (7) and logged more innings (27 2/3) than any other Sox hurler this spring.  He says he feels good, and his spring numbers (2-0, 3.25 ERA) back up the claim.  Beckett will be the Opening Day starter and looks poised to regain his status as staff ace.

As for the fifth slot in the rotation, there is nothing short of a logjam, which is excellent news.  Brad Penny is set to get the nod on April 12, the first day the team will need a fifth starter.  Penny is fresh off his best outing in a year, having repeatedly exhibited the mid-90s heat that propelled him to consecutive All-Star games in 2006-07.  If Penny returns to form, the Sox will have the best starting staff in baseball.

To illustrate the quality and depth of the Boston rotation, consider these points: Justin Masterson is fully capable of starting, Clay Buchholz gave up a total of seven earned runs in 25 innings this spring (and will begin the season in Triple-A), and John Smoltz is anxiously waiting in the wings.  If all goes well, let’s just say the team is fortunate that Tim Wakefield is such a good sport.

Bullpen: A-minus

Top closer in the game?  Check.  Dominant setup man capable of closing?  Check.  Multiple middle and long relief options?  Check.  Situation-specific matchup relievers?  Check.  Roger that.  Bullpen is a go.

While it all begins and ends with Jonathan Papelbon, technically it only ends with him when talking about the myriad arms that will be available to Terry Francona this year.  Given the rocks in the rotation, it’s fair to assume Tito will be consistently bridging no more than the seventh and eighth innings to Papelbon.  And on the rare occasion that a starter gets lit up, a mop-up man will not be necessary.

At his disposal will be mainstays Masterson, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, each of whom can fulfill a variety of roles — including long relief.  Add to them newcomers Ramon Ramirez (likely a matchup guy) and Saito (who, if healthy, will be among the filthiest setup men in baseball), and toss in a lefty specialist (Javier Lopez), and voila!  Quite a dynamic stable out in the ‘pen for Tito to mix and match at his discretion.

Offense: B

It’s no secret that the Red Sox will find it difficult to approach the 845 runs they scored last year, third-most in baseball.  While fans have become accustomed to watching them cross the plate in droves (they’ve averaged 892 runs a season over the last six years), the ‘09 Red Sox offense will revolve around smart baserunning and timely hitting.

And of course, health.

Assuming David Ortiz plays something close to a full season, and Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew avoid long stints on the DL, the lineup will have sufficient pop.

The evolution of Jacoby Ellsbury will continue and Dustin Pedroia should post similar numbers to his MVP season of a year ago (with a slight decline in the power categories).  Concerns have been voiced about the bottom of the lineup, but as it stands now, Jason Bay, Jason Varitek and Jed Lowrie will round out the lower third of the batting order. Bay is a five or six hitter in most lineups, and Lowrie tore it up this spring (.349, 11 extra-base hits).  That leaves Varitek as the only easy out in the order.

Again, operating under the assumption that the offense can avoid a catastrophic blow, this should be a unit that can plate something in the neighborhood of 800 runs.

Defense: A-minus

With a .986 team fielding percentage, the 2008 Red Sox tied for tops in the league with the Blue Jays and Yankees.  They committed 85 errors, two more than New York and one more than Toronto.

This year the defense projects to be even better.  In the outfield, Ellsbury now has a full year in center under his belt, and an entire season of Bay in left will be an obvious upgrade from Manny (notably on the road).

Every infielder has captured at least one Gold Glove, except for Lowrie, who committed only two errors in 97 games last year while boasting a sterling .992 fielding percentage.

Overall Preseason Grade: B-plus

As shown, the 2009 Red Sox are a loaded team.  There are indeed concerns about the middle of the order, but in this day and age, it’s all about pitching, pitching, pitching.

Considering the number and quality of arms on their pitching staff, the Red Sox should have no problem winning 90-plus games and returning to the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven years.

Teams that win national championships are talented, well-coached, deep, resilient … and exceptionally lucky somewhere along the way.

Alas, no would-be champion navigates the madness of March without the aid of a rabbit’s foot stashed somewhere precious.

What this tournament has taught us is that it’s folly to try and predict bounces of the ball.  Once the games begin, Cinderellas will rise.  Favorites will fall.   The only sure thing is that one of the top five or so teams in the nation will be left standing.  Other than that, anything goes.

There is, however, one factor that can transcend the Dance, and that’s guard play (which is to say, shooting).

Shooting is the essence of basketball.  It’s neither an art nor a science, yet there are elements of each within it.  And as much as any statistician will fight the notion, shooters are prone to hot and cold streaks that follow no logical pattern.  Anyone who has ever toed a basketball court is aware of the phenomenon that is shooting: Sometimes, inexplicably, the cylinder seems to expand and you suddenly can’t miss.

Nine times out of ten, when you hear news of a mammoth upset or Cinderella run, there is a shooting guard who caught fire behind the story.

So if you’re looking for a lower seed capable of a deep run in the tournament, it’s wise to start your search with the shooters.

With that said, pay attention to these teams and the gunners who are capable of carrying them far.

Team:  Boston College (22-11, No. 7 in Midwest)

Gunner: Tyrese Rice (G, Sr.)

Explanation: Rice is one of the more peculiar players on one of the more peculiar teams in the land.  After a junior campaign in which he averaged 21 points per game, many thought he would be among the nation’s scoring leaders this season.  Instead, he has mainly deferred to some of the younger talent around him, putting up almost a hundred fewer shots and averaging nearly four fewer points (17.1).  He has been dominant in big spots though, as evidenced by the combined 46 points he dropped in wins over North Carolina and Duke.  Rice is one of a handful of guards in the country who can spot up from anywhere and get to the bucket at will.  If he finds the zone, all bets are off for any team in his path.

Team: Texas (22-11, No. 7 in East)

Gunner: A.J. Abrams (G, Sr.)

Explanation: The Longhorns fizzled down the stretch, losing three of their last six, mainly because Abrams went cold.  The senior averaged 16.3 points and was a 38.9 percent 3-point shooter for the season.  Yet he made just 11 of 33 attempts from long range and scored only 11.5 points per game down the stretch.  If he can regain the form that saw him torch UCLA and Villanova in consecutive games early in the season, Texas could run through Duke in the second round and possibly find itself challenging Pittsburgh for a trip to the Final Four.  Abrams is that explosive.

Team: Temple (22-11, No. 11 in South)

Gunner: Dionte Christmas (G, Sr.)

Explanation: If you haven’t heard of him by now, you probably don’t watch Sportscenter too often.  The Owls, led by a man whose name is conducive to clichés, blitzed the Atlantic-10 tournament last week to earn an automatic bid to the Dance.  Eyes started opening in the semifinal game, when “Christmas came early” for Temple against perennial conference power Xavier.  The senior guard dropped 20 on the Musketeers before following that with a 29-point encore in the championship vs. Duquesne.  He hit a combined 10 threes in those contests.  Now the Owls find themselves matched up against Arizona State.  If Christmas goes off again, Syracuse (Temple’s likely second-round opponent) may have to up the threat level from “Orange” to red.

Team: Marquette (24-9, No. 6 in West)

Gunner(s): Jerel McNeal (G, Sr.) and Wesley Matthews (G, Sr.)

Explanation: The Golden Eagles were drastically altered when point guard Dominic James broke his foot against Connecticut on Feb. 25.  Including that game, Marquette dropped five of six to end the season.  In all five of those losses they battled, but fell to nationally-ranked Big East foes.  The good news is backup point guard Maurice Acker was able to get some significant playing time against big-time opponents.  If he can take care of the ball in the tournament, that will enable McNeal (19.7 ppg, .402 3-point shooter) and Matthews (18.4 ppg, .377 3-point shooter) to do what they do best: light up the scoreboard from outside and keep the pressure on the opposition.  The two have a combined eight years of experience.  Even without James, they are capable of shooting their way to the Sweet 16.

I remember being at the semifinals of the 2003 Big East Championship.  Sitting about 20 rows back of where the baseline meets the sideline at Madison Square Garden, I watched Connecticut and Syracuse go at it.

Carmelo Anthony had been the story of the year but on that March night it was Ben Gordon who put the Huskies on his back to take down ‘Cuse and its freshman titan.  After the teams exchanged postgame handshakes — Anthony with Gordon and Emeka Okafor among others, pantheon coaches Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun with one another — I tracked Anthony as he exited the court and walked toward the tunnel.

I inched closer to floor level, getting to within shouting distance of him.  Intending to give him a piece of my mind (it’s a habit I have), I suddenly had no words (a rarity).  He had this steely and resolute look in his eyes, yet at the same time seemed to be fighting back a grin.  The contradiction froze me. 

The look, which could have been construed as a defiant acceptance of defeat, I interpreted differently.  It was almost as if he knew something nobody else did, and the moment of clarity just happened to come after a tournament loss in the world’s most famous arena.  To me he looked like a kid who knew the stage was about to be his, and to hell with anyone who dared stand in his way.

Can I be positive about this?  Of course not.  But I will say I left MSG that night knowing which team I’d have going the distance once the brackets were announced.  I left the Garden with the sneaking suspicion that I had witnessed some history wrapped in an otherwise ho-hum 80-67 final.

Three and a half weeks later I had won my first (and only) March Madness pool and was about to pen the first (of a few) “Respect Carmelo” columns for my school newspaper.

So why am I writing about that contest now?  Why give two hoots about some game that happened six years ago when the same teams just ran six overtimes less than 24 hours ago??  SIX!!!!!!  That’s three full halves PLUS two overtimes!!!

I’ll tell you why: Because it’s special to feel like you’re a part of history.  I witnessed one of the greatest college players lose for the final time, and am pretty sure I pegged the moment when he decided as much.  That moment still resonates.

I wasn’t even at MSG Thursday night but can say unequivocally that Connecticut-Syracuse on March 12, 2009 was a game I’ll be talking about when I’m an old-timer.  I may not have been as privileged as the 19,375 inside the Garden, but I still feel like I was a part of history.

This one was so epic you didn’t even have to be there, you just had to see it with your own eyes.

Had to see Eric Devendorf’s miracle three with 1.1 seconds left in regulation, a shot that would have Deven-dwarfed every buzzer-beater since Christian Laettner’s had there been 1.2 seconds remaining instead.

Had to see 7-foot-3 Hasheem Thabeet — disregarding the fact that his cranium is situated somewhere in the stratosphere — dive earthward for a loose ball to secure a possession in overtime.

Had to see UConn jump out to leads in each of the first FIVE extra sessions, only to watch Syracuse claw back and tie the game — but never take the lead — every time.

Had to see Paul Harris miss not one but two layups in the closing seconds of the fourth overtime that would have won the game for the Orange.

Had to see Jonny Flynn put a tad too much english on a reverse layup just moments before Harris.

Had to see, one by one, star players foul out and give way to walk-ons and benchwarmers.

Had to see those same walk-ons and benchwarmers make HUGE plays in the biggest moments of their lives.

Had to see all the drives, jays, blocks, acrobatic saves, bodies flying, near-daggers, rugby scrums for loose balls, volleyball battles for boards, clutch free throws, diabolic bounces off the tin, jumping jacks, and-ones…

Had to see Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery lose a few marbles.

Had to see the fans — who were as exhausted as the players — yelp like dogs with muted barks once it was all over.

Had to see Boeheim — no sucker for hyperbole — proclaim he had “never been prouder of any team”.

Had to see………hell you just HAD to see it.

If you’ve been reading this column up until now and feel like the last half has been one convoluted, impossible-to-follow run-on, that’s good because that’s exactly what I intended it to be.  I essentially just cut and pasted my notes into the piece.

Truth is, I can’t do justice to what transpired in midtown Manhattan Thursday night.  You gotta see it for yourself.

So check out ESPN Classic when you have a moment. Chances are they’re heading into overtime right now…

Spring Training is in full swing for the Red Sox down in Fort Myers, but the vibe this year is different from past seasons.

Since spring storylines have traditionally revolved around Manny Ramirez this decade, the lack of all things Manny has cast a calm over camp.

If you recall, Spring Training 2008 was brief and full of headlines.  The Red Sox were defending champions and preparing for the Japan trip.  This spring it’s pretty much the opposite.  A year after kicking off the regular season historically early (March 25), Opening Day ‘09 will not come until April 6 because of the World Baseball Classic.

Additionally, with five key players (Dice-K, David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia) participating in the WBC for four different countries, Fort Myers is missing many familiar faces.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t issues warranting close monitoring.  Be sure to keep an eye on the following storylines, in Florida and around the world, as the new season approaches.

The health of J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell It’s not worth mincing words: the Red Sox offense cannot survive another pair of injury-plagued and thus underperformed seasons from Drew and Lowell.  Last year the two missed a combined 102 games, but their losses were mitigated by Manny’s production and career years from Pedroia and Youkilis.  With Manny gone and it being unrealistic to project Pedroia and Youk to match their production from a year ago, the team is staking the middle of the lineup on two guys with health concerns.  How Drew responds to a cortisonal shot in his lower back and how Lowell recovers from offseason hip surgery are issues of great concern.  Let’s put it this way: if come June, Terry Francona’s lineup card has a six-through-nine of Rocco Baldelli/Brad Wilkerson, Mark Kotsay, Jason Varitek and Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will be in serious trouble.

The Papelbon setup crew The only thing resembling a closer controversy Francona has dealt with in recent past is when and how often to summon his stopper.  Ever since a shoulder injury forced the team to shut Papelbon down at the end of the 2006 season, the goal was to reduce the amount and length of his appearances.  The problem last year was Tito didn’t have a go-to guy in the eighth inning until Justin Masterson emerged late in the season.  Manny Delcarmen was constantly battling himself and Hideki Okajima finally started getting figured out by the opposition.  With Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA, .222 BAA in 2008) and Takashi Saito (career 1.95 ERA and .182 BAA) on board to bolster an already strong bullpen, Francona should be able to shave about 10 appearances off the 67 Papelbon logged in ‘08.

Josh Beckett’s body language Beckett has far too much pride to ever let on about an injury, which is why he took so much heat down the stretch last year amid a sustained stretch of mediocrity.  The guy simply won’t admit to being hurt (which he was).  The best indicator of how he’s feeling is to watch him on the mound and in the clubhouse.  When he’s wearing that understated scowl and breaking off biting curves to complement his gas, then colorfully and curtly addressing reporters after outings, that’s when you know Beckett is right.  All signs point to him being healthy and ready to replicate his dominant 2007 season.  That’s what the Sox need.

David Ortiz’s WBC performance If Drew and Lowell are vital to the success of the offense, Ortiz is paramount.  Something in the neighborhood of a .300/35/115 season is necessary from Big Papi in order for the top-heavy Boston lineup to push across enough runs to consistently win ballgames.  He reported to Spring Training in great shape and was talking the talk.  He’ll be playing first base in the WBC for the Dominican Republic, which will give him an opportunity to showcase what he claims to be a healthy knee.  Yet obviously the focus will be on his left wrist and how — if at all — it will impact his swing at the plate.  After the least productive and most injury-riddled year of his career with the Red Sox, Ortiz wants to make a statement.  Over the next four weeks, as he dons the colors of his country, Big Papi should provide a clear picture of what he’ll be toting into the batters box in ‘09.

Keeping Smoltz in perspective Patience, everyone.  Yes, John Smoltz as a Red Sox is a tantalizing prospect.  His presence early in the season is by no means integral to the identity of the team, however.  The Sox have six viable starters (Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Wakefield, Penny, Masterson) entering the campaign, and as much as everyone wants to see Smoltz firing away from the Fenway rubber, there’s no reason to rush things.  If the last five years have taught us anything, it’s that the Red Sox are perennial contenders and must accordingly have the big picture in mind.  Smoltz’s 15 postseason wins and 2.65 career postseason ERA are all one needs when taking into account the end game of winning a title.  For the time being it’s best to view Smoltz as a guaranteed midseason acquistion.

I’m an optimist.   Prefer to glean the positives from what might otherwise be construed as a negative situation.

I can’t help it.  Optimism is entrenched in my sports psyche.  It’s the reason I grew up believing every year was THE year for the Red Sox, the reason I stayed sane in New York post-XLII.

So while many view Kevin Garnett’s (temporary) absence and Stephon Marbury’s (probable) arrival as possible death blows to Boston’s chances of a repeat, I see a pair of blessings in disguise — reinforced by a recurring sense of déjà vu.

The knee injury Garnett sustained in a Feb. 19 game at Utah sent shock waves through Celtics nation, and justifiably so.  The fact that he injured the knee on a non-contact maneuver — in this case, going up for an alley-oop — was a major cause for concern.  Ligament and tendon damage can often result from slightly mistimed lateral or vertical movements.  Fortunately he merely strained a muscle behind the knee, an injury he could have played through.  And he tried to.

Needless to say Danny Ainge did not allow that to happen and the team is taking no chances going forward, which means the Big Ticket will likely sit out another eight or so games in addition to the pair he’s already missed.  Does this scenario sound familiar?  It should, as the same thing happened around the same time last year.  On Jan. 25 Garnett strained an abdominal muscle and missed nine games between Jan. 27 and Feb. 19. The Celtics won seven of them.

He returned healthier and refreshed.  You know the rest.

It’s well documented how KG only has one speed: turbo.  To him cruise control is synonymous with being stuck in the breakdown lane.  When you consider that even with the respite he still played 97 games last year (second only to the 100 games he played in 2003-04), it might have been wise to shelf him for a period of time regardless.  That his freakish body has again sounded a faint warning bell might indeed be that blessing in disguise.  It surely was last year.

Unless he reaggravates the injury down the stretch (which would be quite a pessimistic way of looking at things), this mandated down time will end up paying great dividends when the Celtics embark on what’s sure to be another deep playoff run.

As for Marbury, call him what you want — bad teammate, enigma, self-centered, classless — and the New York media certainly has, but the man really has everything to gain from joining the Celtics.  The Celtics, in turn, have pretty much nothing to lose.  If he works out, super.  If not, they can cut ties while assuming minimal financial loss.

Remember Sam Cassell?

While Cassell’s career accomplishments overshadow Marbury’s, speaking purely from a style of play and team chemistry standpoint the two are mirror images of one another.  In their heyday both players were All-Star caliber, shoot-first point guards with a surplus of hubris.

Last March Cassell came into a close-knit and role-defined locker room, ball(s)-in-hand.  The fear was his ego and chucking mentality would be injurious.  After hitting some big shots in the regular season and again in the first round against Atlanta, the chucking became a problem against Cleveland and Cassell played sparingly for the remainder of the playoffs.  He did not, however, threaten the team chemistry.  In that regard he put his ego aside in the name of winning a ring.

Cassell — at age 38 — had nothing to prove except that he could become an auxiliary piece on a championship team.

Marbury, on the other hand, is playing for a lot more.  He wants to win his first playoff series en route to his first title.  At 32, he has a golden opportunity to lock up a final big contract.  A successful run with Boston and he’ll be in position for one last substantial payday.

Above all, maybe, he wants to stick it to New York.  To the front office he believes treated him unfairly.  To the teammates he thinks tossed him under the bus.  To the fans who turned on him.  And to the media, which has been unrelenting with its venom-injected headlines and protracted condemnations of the man they once deemed “Starbury”.

He has a beef to settle with New York, and what better place to do it than the one place that despises anything and everything “New Yaaawk”?

Irony would have it that the Celtics and Knicks have developed one of the coldest rivalries in the league, if you can call it that.  (A rivalry, that is.)  The teams nearly came to blows last season when Quentin Richardson and Paul Pierce were ejected from a game at Madison Square Garden.  Afterwards Richardson fanned the flames with some choice postgame remarks.  They have yet to make amends.

Richardson has had no qualms about voicing his opinion on the Marbury matter as well. This past November he ripped Marbury after the disgruntled star refused to play when the team was shorthanded and calling for his services.

In response to the incident, Knicks president Donnie Walsh formally banished Marbury from the team on Dec. 1.  Add it up and seems like the enemy of Stephon Marbury’s enemy is about to become his new friend.  That should immediately help the chemistry-building process with the Celtics.

Given all that, who really thinks the guy is going to ride into Boston on his high horse and reprise his role as a defiant, obstinate distraction?  Not I.

But take that with a grain of salt.

I am, after all, a self-professed optimist.