Home is Sweet in NBA’s Second Round
Hedo Turkoglu held the ball as time expired in Game 4 of the Magic-Pistons series. With four seconds left he drove to the left, created separation and tossed up an off-balance floater that came up short. Dwight Howard’s follow also missed. Two good looks. Two misses.
The buzzer sounded and the Pistons won the game, 90-89.
More telling, Detroit became the first team to win on the road in the second round of the 2008 playoffs. Through the first four games of each second round series, home teams are 15-1. After witnessing Turkoglu and Howard’s successive point-blank botches, one can only think how close it has come to a clean-home sweep thus far in the conference semifinals.
That one home “L”, endured by Orlando, enabled the Pistons to carry a comfy 3-1 series lead back to the Motor City. The other three series (Lakers-Jazz, Hornets-Spurs, Celtics-Cavs) are all knotted at home-cooked 2-2 splits.
Historically, it is very tough to come back from an 0-2 deficit — only 13 teams have done it; most recently Cleveland against Detroit in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals. However, much is made of “momentum swings” in playoff series, and judging from the way Utah, San Antonio and Cleveland have played since going down 0-2, it is safe to say they all have the momentum on their side heading back on the road.
The Lakers, Hornets and Celtics each find themselves in the undesirable position of having squandered a 2-0 lead, and are currently having to answer questions about what went wrong and how they will be affected going forward. The pressure is on them, the perceived favorites.
Here’s where the “momentum swing” argument fails though: In all three of the even-steven matchups, teams have systematically dominated on their home court, and been undressed on the road.
The Lakers beat the Jazz twice at Staples Center, by an average of 10.5 points. They defended, ran the floor, and moved the ball with almost effortless fluidity. Games 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City? Not so much. While the Lakers lost a couple of close games (104-99 and 123-115 in OT), their ability to dictate the pace of the game–and more importantly, prevent Deron Williams from doing so–vanished.
They frequently played from behind, and in Game 4 when Kobe was in pain and trying to do too much, the only reason they forced overtime was because Derek Fisher and Lamar Odom went on simultaneous fourth-quarter tears (10 points a piece).
The Hornets-Spurs series (aka the “third quarter series”) has seen the home team win every game by double digits. Close games have turned into blowouts in the third quarters, with the Hornets holding a 65-35 advantage in third quarter scoring in New Orleans. The Spurs have returned the favor in San Antonio, running the Hornets of out Games 3 and 4 by an aggregate 59-41 in the third period. The games have turned so lopsided it hasn’t even been worth watching the fourth quarters in this series.
Finally, there are the Celtics and Cavs. Boston, the team that began the trend with its head-scratching futility on the road against the Hawks in round one, has ceased to regain the form that won it a league-best 31 games on the road in the regular season. After holding Cleveland to under 74 points in both games at TD Banknorth Garden, the Celtics gave up 108 and 88 
at Quicken Loans Arena in Games 3 and 4.
They have been unflappable at home (Kevin Garnett took over Game 1 in the final 90 seconds), and have thoroughly flopped on the road. If there is a silver lining to the Celtics concerning home/road discrepancy, it’s that the other second round matchups combined have become a microcosm of the Celtics entire playoff run. Boston is 6-0 at home, and 0-5 on the road. Not including the Celtics-Cavs series, home teams are 11-1 in the second round.
A case study of these playoffs would indicate that home crowds in general have become louder and more rambunctious, that they have more decisively affected the outcomes of games than ever before. That is false. Just ask Lakers fans who inhabited the LA Forum during their run to four titles in the 80s. Or Celtics fans who deafened opponents in the Boston Garden over three decades and 16 NBA championships.
The real explanation for this peculiarity is parity. All the teams still standing are very good. None are great. The Spurs are the closest thing to a great team, but their most dominant days are behind them. Are they still capable of winning a title? Yes, but they will never again do it with the brutal efficiency of past Tim Duncan teams.
It may appear that the Spurs, along with the Jazz and Cavs, have it all going at the right time. Momentum can be deceiving, though. It obviously frustrates the Hornets, Lakers and Celtics, having given up 2-0 advantages — but they still understand they aren’t going anywhere until someone comes into their house and slams the door shut.
your squad?
stars like them, that can be the difference between a top-three finish and middle of the pack.
(.341/6/16). Ryan Church (.318/4/22).
permanently tagged “if necessary” on the schedule–I can’t help but think: Maybe this was a good thing.
forced to reevaluate, forced to reflect — not on 66 wins, but on two losses.
Excuse me for being blunt but if you’re a sports fan not watching these playoffs, well then, there’s just something wrong with you.
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is his “can win a series by himself” potential? 9.9 out of 10. A tiny notch ahead of Garnett because of his age but still lacking the perfect 10 because it is possible to get the ball out of his terrifying hands at the end of games. In fact, these playoffs will probably spawn the “hack-a-Howard” strategy because he only shoots 59% from the free throw line. Of course there’s always the chance that in crunch time he will shed would-be foulers like ants. He truly does have the power and quickness to unilaterally overrule futile foul attempts. That said, if you’re an opposing coach, you simply can’t let Dwight Howard throw one down in the last seconds of a tied playoff game. If it must entail lining up a wall of oversized pawns to thwart him, so be it. It must be noted that Howard’s options on the perimeter (Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis) for a game-winning kick-out are not as reliable as KG’s. That will inevitably mark Superman’s downfall (this year at least).
32 and 17 (plus a combined seven steals) in fact weren’t what stuck out the most. (And no, I’m not munching on the magic brownies.) It was the way he carried himself; the way he carried his team. In the tone-setting Game 1, each bucket he dropped and dime he dished was accompanied by a progressively meaner and more confident look in his eyes. Chest pounds and cries of “Let’s go!” had Hornets fans smelling blood and Mavs players anticipating the imminent (which was also the psychological precursor to the beating Paul gave them in Game 2). His intensity level was so high he appeared ready to take the contest into the parking lot after the game. We haven’t seen that from Dirk since Game 7 of the Spurs series in 2006. I’m surely not the first to say it, but I won’t be close to the last: We are witnessing the beginning of what may become the greatest career by a point guard all-time. His ceiling extends far beyond the bannerless rafters inside New Orleans Arena.
accompany him. “The first time you get there, you feel it.”
Ainge: (patting McHale on the shoulders) Who’s the man??
While Ferry enjoyed having his own “pickins” for a period of time when the tournament was still a niche, he speaks with a justifiable sense of pride when detailing the evolution of the event. His one time diamond in the rough ultimately served as one of the launch pads to greatness for the likes of Rick Barry, Earl Monroe, Dave Cowens, Scottie Pippen and John Stockton.
with his own reflection, he falls in love with each deep drive he strikes.
Sheffield have had a lot do with that.
breed.
Francona used him only in mop up situations last October. In his first appearance since receiving an utterly ludicrous $10 million deal from Milwaukee, Gagne picked up right where he left off in Beantown. Entrusted with a three-run lead in the ninth, he promptly gave up a hit, a walk and a game-tying homer to a rookie (Kosuke Fukudome) playing his first game in the US.
D-Backs are set to be even better in 2008, except there’s one major caveat. Jose Valverde and his 47 saves are now in Houston. The Diamondbacks won 90 games last year, but many of them were thanks to Valverde protecting one-run leads. Webb was a stud from mid-summer on last season, but Valverde was the MVP of the team. Without him, Arizona has uncertainty at the back end of their bullpen. No team wants to adopt a closer by committee. Especially one that needs to constantly protect tenuous leads late in ballgames.
Derek Lowe), good middle relief (Scott Proctor and Jonathan Broxton), and the best closer in the National League (Takashi Saito). With speed at the top of their lineup (Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal) and power in the middle (an emerging-James Loney and Russell Martin), LA will avoid the scoring droughts that plagued them last year. Joe Torre’s cool and calm demeanor is also ideally suited for Southern California. The new skipper will lead the Dodgers back to the postseason, but not through it.
and unrelenting offense and a couple stoppers at the end of the game, no deficit will be insurmountable for the Bombers (except the 0-2 one they’ll face against Detroit in the playoffs).
of their rotation (Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly) and a lights-out setup man in Carlos Marmol. If they weren’t inevitably running into a team on a blood mission, I’d say the Cubbies were about to be closing in on their first pennant since 1945. Instead, 2008 will go down as another tantalizing, but ultimately unfulfilling campaign in Wrigleyville.
like to deny it, Red Sox Nation is now multinational, multilingual, and carrying the torch into the next era of the sport of baseball. Assuming an ambassadorial role for MLB won’t come without consequences, however.
possibly the franchise, by working a deal for Johan Santana. So in comes the best pitcher of today, joining the best hurler of yesterday.
settle some unfinished business after getting upset by Winthrop in last year’s tournament. The Irish have the inside/outside combo with Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney, but the Patriots won’t back down.
began as Texas was manhandled in the second round by…you guessed it, USC! Once again, in this matchup I don’t see a coincidence. I do see a heck of a basketball game though.
regional final, and you have a recipe for a first round heart-pounder.
basketball world up in arms about ASU’s snub. The only way to justify its 24th straight tournament berth (the nation’s longest active streak) would be for the Wildcats to beat a traditionally solid tournament team in the Mountaineers.
they were forced to preserve an identity without their centerpiece.
who have led the team. Take, for instance, Allen’s comments prior to unquestionably the biggest game of the season against Detroit on March 5. “What is this game 59 for us? It’s business as usual.”
ego is accordingly robust. He could conceivably be a problem for the incumbent and up-and-comer at his position, Rajon Rondo. Just don’t count on it.