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Posts from the ‘NFL 2007’ Category

Feb 8

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18-1

Football has a knack for defining its most indefinable in the simplest of fashions. The Catch. The Drive. The Fumble. The Tackle. Minus the article, each exists merely as a single inherent, fundamental aspect of the game. Add the article and you get four of the of the most miraculous happenings in NFL history. The Catch propelled the 49ers to the first of their four Super Bowls led by Joe Montana. The Drive and The Fumble, endured by the Browns at the hands of the Broncos in successive AFC Championships, still haunt the city of Cleveland. And The Tackle of Tennessee’s Kevin Dyson at the 1-yard line by Rams linebacker Mike Jones, solidified “The Greatest Show on Turf”. Other than The Immaculate Reception, I can’t think of one history-changing play that stands out both in significance and formal historic title.

I guess what I’m trying to say is before this week I’d never really understood why football always seemed to qualify its most cherished and improbable moments in such a nuts and bolts kind of way. Then, in the five days following Super Bowl XLII, I found myself waking up everyday thinking about one thing–That Play. I would see Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour with Eli Manning in their mitts, see Eli yank himself away, cock back and throw–knowing that with all that time the Giants receivers must have gotten behind the Patriots secondary–then see Rodney Harrison actually there. There to make a play that he makes, almost snapping the back bone of David Tyree as he wrestles him to the ground. Yet somehow the ball rests between Tyree’s hand and his helmet; the only part of his person not in violent contortion as a result of Harrison’s hit. Everything hits the ground. Except the ball. The catch has been made. That Play has happened. Except it doesn’t strike me. It doesn’t compute. Everything we’ve been through. Everything they’ve been through. It all vanishes with one epic play.

Only when I was able to comprehend That Play itself did I finally realize why football needs no poetry to capture its greatest happenings. They capture themselves. That’s the beauty of the NFL Playoffs, of the game of football: It’s simplicity. One chunk of sixty minutes will determine a winner and a loser. There is no championship series; no losing home field but still having a shot on the road; no regrouping after a total brain fart. In football, tomorrow exists not as another opportunity but as a finality. It’s hard to believe that on the first “tomorrow” after the 2007 NFL season, the perfect-Patriots were suddenly the defeated-Patriots. It took them 18 games and five months to gain monolithic status, something that could only be substantiated by their unprecedented 18-0 record. And it took sixty minutes to wipe it all away.

The writing was on the wall. Books by the Boston Herald and Boston Globe chronicling the historic 19-0 Patriots. A victory parade in the works for Super Tuesday (Boston.com story). A celebrity girlfriend in attendance. An ankle injury dismissed as another insignificant speed bump in the slow but sure trek to immortality. By the time the confetti was falling in Glendale, all had become terrible omens. When the confetti arrived, the book disappeared. So too did the map of the parade route. And while we won’t ever know for sure just how ominous Gisele’s presence was, or more importantly, how severe Brady’s ankle injury was, we fell into the trap. Might as well call it the perfect trap.

I remember hearing about the book and the parade sometime during Super Bowl week, and how briefly, a chill ran down the back of my spine. I recalled how during the Patriots first Super Bowl run, the Steelers were handing out Super Bowl tickets before the AFC Championship and St. Louis was planning championship festivities before they had even lined up against New England. I remember how I scoffed at the time. The parallels between the 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants (not to mention the teams they were facing as well as the grandeur of their fan bases) had already been well established. You know where the parallels ended? At Brady and Belichick’s perfect 3-0 record in Super Bowls as the platform on which 18-0 stood. Thus the trap had been set.

There was to be no wavering. The outcome, although most critical, seemed most obvious. It was obvious because of 3-0 and 18-0, because of the swagger that went along with those unblemished marks, because of the bitter feelings of resentment that had stemmed from CameraGate, because of the fact that anyone tied to the Patriots was up against everyone else. In Week 2 a line was drawn in the sand. On one side were the Patriots, led by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, followed by their supporters. On the other side was everyone else, led by Eric Mangini, Mercury Morris and (evidently) Arlen Specter. As time passed and wins mounted, the divide only grew wider; the respective feelings only became harsher.

Like it often does in football, it all became personal. It still is. Will always be. However, That Play happened. That Play threw history off its axis. At this moment past and future mean nothing. Right now, the Giants are champions and the ’72 Dolphins are the only perfect team in football history.

As for everyone on the “enemy side” of that line in the sand–coaches, players, fans, writers alike–it is now bitingly clear that for all of us, pride came before the fall. The 2007 Patriots finished 18-1 and will be remembered as the greatest failure in football history.

Feb 1

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Super Bowl Thoughts and THE XLII PICK

I rarely moan and groan, and when I choose to do so it is always about one thing. Access. Or my general lack thereof. Regrettably, being founder, editor, and sole writer of Ballgamespoints.com doesn’t qualify me for access to Super Bowl Week. There were approximately 5,000 media credentials issued for Media Day XLII, going to everyone ranging from a 9-year-old kid probably skipping a test on the times-tables to a striking Mexican TV reporter sporting a wedding gown and using the platform to propose to Tom Brady. And every other conceivable character in between. Nothing for me though. Bollocks. So here I am again, digesting the buildup to the big game from my cove in Brooklyn. But don’t stop reading; I’m not about to unleash a thousand fuming words illustrating my displeasure. I’ll spare you the tirade awash in vitriol and sulk. Just know it’s in there, festering. That makes me feel better.

What I will use this column as is a way of figuring out what exactly I’m going to do for the game, which I haven’t yet decided. The field has been narrowed to two choices. I can either A) go to Boston, watch the Pats with my Boston friends on a 62-incher, and pour into the streets of Beantown after the rebirth of a dynasty, or B) go to Staten Island, watch the game on a TV of comparable girth with my New York crew, and run the risk of being maimed. True, the answer seems obvious enough, but don’t jump to premature conclusions. There are pros and cons that go with each scenario.

Boston first. No doubt, being in Boston for a championship is wicked awesome. I was there for the Patriots’ second Super Bowl triumph. The venue was my buddy’s apartment at BU. After Vinatieri kicked the game-winner, we joined a couple thousand BU kids in a march down Comm Ave toward Kenmore Square, the de facto centre of celebration post-Boston championships. When we got there we were met by tens of thousands more, who we joined forces with to turn the gateway of Fenway into a massive rave of champions. Small fires produced pockets of primitive light, surrounded by boozed-up Bostonians and college kids. Lamp posts were climbed and conquered by the boldest; these revelers relished their moment above the masses by firing up cigars and belting out unintelligible cries of victory. Chants of “Let’s Go Red Sox” echoed from North Station to Copley Square. But the real party raged in the shadows of the edifice that had left Boston feeling hollow every autumn for 86 years. With the Red Sox (at the time…) continuing to tear the hearts out of their faithful, watching the Patriots had become a therapeutic practice for all us starving New England sports fans. They helped us channel our passion and anguish. In the almost-four months subsequent to the Grady Little-Pedro-Game 7 debacle, the Patriots didn’t lose once. Hence the culmination in Kenmore.

So how can I possibly find a “con” in that scenario? For better or worse, the sports fervor in Boston undoubtedly boils over when a team wins a title. And the night I’m referencing pretty much started that trend. By the time the waves of SWAT personnel occupied the bridge over the Massachusetts Turnpike (which separates Fenway from Kenmore), it was clear that dispersing the masses of people in the square, all full of bravado and cheap beer, would be a challenge. The cops, clad in their riot control gear, stood at attention. The masses continued to taunt the law until our collective sinuses informed us that a huge cloud of pepper spray (or some irritant of the kind) was hanging overhead. Then the SWAT line started its advance. Move or be moved. Most moved. Some were moved. I woke up the next day feeling exhilarated and relieved. Exhilarated that my Patriots were again world champs; relieved that I wasn’t one of the few hundred to spend a bruised-up night in the clink. Wild times. Times that I relived the next year when the Sox finally won the World Series. So you see? I’ve been there, done that, and at the time had that cloak of invincibility better known as college student-status.

Now I’m knee deep in the “real world”, attempting to make it in the field of sportswriting. And I’ll tell you something. The only thing better than having been in Boston for those two defining moments was being in New York for the 2004 ALCS (Games 4-7 that is). I gained an immense amount of perspective into the psyches of the sports fans in this city, because for once, they revealed something other than obtuse superiority (yes, I’m speaking to you, Yankee fans). Even better is the fact that with multiple teams in each sport, cross-sport affiliations aren’t set in stone. I have one buddy who is a Yankees/Giants fan; another who supports the Mets/Jets combo; another yet who bleeds Mets and Giants; and rounding out the bunch, one guy who has undying love for the Yankees and whichever team Michael Vick will be on come Madden 2010. An eccentric bunch, these New Yorkers.

Which brings us full circle, back to “Super Bowl Scenario B”. All of the previously mentioned characters will be at Cotter’s (aka Mr. Mets/Giants) domicile on Staten Island, where a fully stocked bar and an assortment of Chinese appetizers are promised. Not to mention a sporting experience that will clearly shape the near future. If the Giants win, I will never, ever, ehhhhhhhhver hear the end of it, so I might as well be there for the beginning. And if the Patriots win, after dusting off the shards from the plate glass window I get jettisoned through, I’ll have to find a way to exit good ole S.I. without incurring further damage. Either way, it’s a story waiting to be written. And while the story of taking in a title in Boston will never get old, I’ve already lived it twice, and have just written about it. So I think the debate is resolved. For XLII, it will be the Island of Staten. As for the game itself…

THE XLII PICK

For the record, I’m 7-3 this postseason. More importantly, I’m 4-1 in games which involved the Patriots and Giants, with my first “L” coming after I picked Green Bay in the NFC Championship. (As for that someone who’s 5-0, please make yourself known; I’ll give you your own paragraph.) Because I live in New York and love the Patriots, I can count on one hand the number of combined Giants/Patriots games I’ve missed this year. Which is to say I know these teams, know them better than any two teams in the NFL. I will allow that before Week 17 I made a gross misstep in my assertion that Tom Coughlin would be crazy to risk injury to his starters by playing them against the Patriots in a meaningless game. While they did lose three key guys in the loss, that game unequivocally lifted the team to a higher place, beginning first and foremost with Eli Manning. There is simply no other way to explain and/or justify winning three road games and dethroning three NFC division champions in the playoffs. That is the G-Men’s claim to fame summed up. They almost beat the Patriots, used the loss as a watershed moment in which potential was realized, and have steamrolled the competition ever since. They are prepared, focused and confident. They have walked the walk.

Unfortunately for the Giants, in Super Bowl XLII they will not be facing the 2006 Colts or the 2003 Patriots or even the 2000 Ravens (who dismantled the last Giants outfit to make the Super Bowl). Those are three of the great championship teams of the last decade. Three title-winning teams that may have seen their own destinies altered if they ran into these ’07 Giants. No, they’re not playing one of those teams. They’re playing the 2007 Patriots, the first group of professional football players to sit at 18-0; the first squad to be both undefeated and slighted; the only team that could claim to be on a mission that trumps the mission of these G-Men. In its NFL standings section this year, the New York Post stuck an asterisk next to the Patriots name every week, which correlated to a phrase at the bottom of the page: caught cheating. The Patriots are determined to maintain that asterisk forever, except with a different phrase to interpret it: only 19-0 team in football history. Damned if the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, Jaguars or Chargers were going to thwart them. Same for the Giants a month ago. Like those before and after them, the Giants smelled blood, Patriots blood, but couldn’t seal the deal.

There’s only one way the Giants can hope to put themselves back in that position: get to Brady. Get to him early and often. Get to him in the huddle, before the snap, after the whistle. Get to him in his sleep Saturday night. If the Giants want to stand a chance, they better understand that anything short of a total incursion on Tom Brady will lead to their downfall. But let’s face it. That won’t happen. The Patriots have come too far. They’ve had a vendetta to settle since their collapse in the AFC Championship last year in Indy, since Eric Mangini blew the whistle on CameraGate in Week 2. Each victory has gotten tougher, but so too has their resolve. When other teams have sniffed blood, the Patriots have sniffed immortality, yet refused to let it faze or distract them. They are out to prove Mangini is a traitorous rat. They are itching to huff and puff and blow down the neighborhood of Mercury Morris and the rest of those loony ’72 Dolphins. They have played 18 one-game seasons to get here. Football may be a business, but winning football games has become the business of the New England Patriots. That job ends Sunday night.

Patriots 30 Giants 24

Jan 17

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Pats vs. Vegas II (and Giants-Pack)

It was just about two months ago that I waxed theoretical about the Patriots, hypothesizing that their most serious opponent was, and would remain, Las Vegas. At the time of the piece, New England was 10-0 overall, with its average margin of victory standing at 25 points. Because sportsbooks had traditionally shied away from allowing NFL spreads to approach the 20s, and considering the Patriots were thoroughly nullifying that stratagem–winning games by more than three touchdowns–the Pats were an astonishing 9-1 ATS (against the spread). I talked about how big gamblers with big money were taking Vegas to the bank on the backs of the revengeful-Patriots. And were they ever. (Past tense.)

It was no coincidence that after that ridiculous 1-9 start versus the Patriots, Vegas began to compensate for its losses. Overcompensate, in fact. Beginning with the Eagles game (Pats by 24.5), Vegas started making the Patriots such titanic favorites it was almost as if the sportsbooks had dumped the expertise of Jekyll in favor of Hyde. The lines for New England’s remaining games went like this: -19 at Baltimore; -11 against Pittsburgh; -20.5 against the Jets; -22.5 against Miami; -13.5 at the Giants; -13.5 against Jacksonville. They covered exactly one of those games, the Steelers. That’s six of the last seven going to Vegas, courtesy of the Patriots becoming human. Or was it?

There are two principle explanations for how Vegas pulled the strings on a total one-eighty, turning a team that was a historic 9-1 ATS into a run-of-the-mill 10-7 overall. First are the whales I referenced before; those gamblers with huge egos and huger bankrolls. They absolutely and undeniably reamed Vegas over the first two months and change. When someone is lucky enough to do that, what ends up happening is they generally catch a waft of invincibility, which Vegas pounces on. Pounce they did by way of the aforementioned spreads. And all those gamblers who spent more than half of the 2007 season lounging on Cloud 9, sustained by the fury of the Patriots, came crashing back to earth. Why? Because a gambler is swayed by the guise of a “sure thing”. Vegas adapted to the reality that on the football field the Patriots were the closest to a sure thing that American sports had ever witnessed. They were able to adapt because of the Patriots’ perfection and the confidence it instilled in the bettors. So they started skyrocketing the spreads, and the gamblers, captivated by the excellence of the Pats, kept drinking the Kool-Aid. In other words, Vegas actually succeeded in exploiting the strength of its adversary.

The second explanation, which Vegas duly incorporated into its bloated spreads, was the Patriots’ perfection itself. Specifically, the fact that with each passing week another professional football organization had no other ambition than to go out and conjure up every ion of collective hubris in an end-all attempt to derail this mystical and improbable march towards football immortality. Over the last six games of the regular season and the first game of the playoffs, the Patriots played seven Super Bowls through the helmets of their opponents. The Steelers failed miserably. The Jets and Dolphins performed admirably. The Eagles and Giants were as awe-inspiring in defeat as a team could possibly be. The reverberations from “the miracles in Baltimore” are still being felt. And the Jaguars fought tooth and nail for three quarters. Anyone who expected the Patriots to be throttling teams through December and into January simply doesn’t know football. Which brings us to this weekend’s AFC Championship Game.

The Chargers are a good football team. In light of their latest win against the Colts it’s safe to say they would have probably won the Super Bowl last year if the Patriots hadn’t ended their season at Qualcomm Stadium (better yet, if Marty Schottenheimer and Marlon McCree hadn’t joined forces to end their season at Qualcomm). They stumbled out of the gates this year but rebounded and regained form. They are banged up, for sure, and a combination of immaturity and classlessness (see: Phillip Rivers jawing with Indy fans last week and Igor Olshansky’s dim-witted comments the other day) has become this team’s calling card. But they are talented.

LaDainian Tomlinson, who has been as much of a non-factor in his team’s two playoff wins as a superstar can be, will give the Patriots some problems running between the tackles. It’s his cutback ability that is deadly, however, which means Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas will need to stick to their assignments and wait for the chance to knock LT out of the game with a big blind-side hit when he attempts a cutback. In the passing game, while Antonio Gates will be limited because of a foot injury, the Chargers wideouts have stepped up as the games have become more important. Vincent Jackson has been superb and Chris Chambers always menaced the Patriots during his tenure with Miami; don’t think for a second he’s planning on changing his ways.

Anyone expecting a repeat of the Patriots 38-14, post-CameraGate whupping of the Chargers in Week 2 better start reevaluating sooner than later. Patriots-Chargers has become the second best rivalry in the league behind Pats-Colts, not only because of the bad blood that has lingered between the two teams since the beginning of the 2004 season, but also because San Diego has shown to be the only other team capable of beating Indy. They’ve come too far to roll over. With that said, the Chargers most significant strength lies in their ability to create turnovers. They were +24 this season, which was best in the NFL (followed, of course, by Indy at +18 and the Patriots at +16). Needless to say, the Patriots defy anyone to win the turnover battle with them in the playoffs, which will lead to the demise of the Chargers. But don’t be fixated on 17-0, because the Patriots surely aren’t. Don’t be fooled by the Vegas-manipulation of Patriot-gamblers. Understand that this will be a game. And if Phillip Rivers is unable to play, don’t think for a second that Billy Volek won’t come in guns-blazing and start firing away (the Patriots, lest we forget, have met formidable opponents in perennial backups, AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller).

As opposed to the playoff game last year, the Patriots will control this game behind the greatest quarterback to ever play the position. They might even go up by two touchdowns. But the Chargers won’t back down. Time and again they’ve made it clear in their over-the-top, overly-arrogant manner that they are not scared of the big, bad Pats. What they still haven’t gotten through their thick heads, though, is that fear aside, they are simply not as good of a football team as the Patriots.

Patriots 27 Chargers 20

NFC Championship

Very few thought the Giants, led by Eli Manning, would be one of the final four standing this season. Fewer even could have predicted that brother Peyton would be finished before Eli. So what now? Do the networks honor their contractual agreements with Mastercard and play the requisite loops of “Priceless Pep Talks with Peyton Manning”, during a Peyton-less championship Sunday? Is that funny? Fitting? Sad? A conflict of interest? Not really, not when revenue is the only matter of interest. For now we’ll call it a funny, fitting and sad conflict of embarrassment. Plus, who knows, maybe Eli is a Lambeau-gem away from stealing the bit from his big bro. And now, another priceless pep-talk with Eli Manning! “Priceless” as that may be, let’s not jump the gun.

Let’s stick to the truth, which is Eli will be playing in a championship game a full two years before his brother did. More relevant is the fact that, beginning with the Patriots game three weeks ago, the bumbling little brother has grown up, grown into a Manning. He has done it on the biggest and most primetime of stages: against the Patriots with nothing on the line but football pride, and then twice on the road in the playoffs, the second against his team’s oldest rival. Say what you will about him, but regardless of Peyton’s shocking loss last weekend, Eli has marched his way into the spotlight. He’s earned it. You can mark it down now, the future belongs to Eli Manning. However, as much fun as it is to look ahead, we are perpetually stuck in the present, whether fully aware of it or not. Only experience can thoroughly validate that notion. On Sunday afternoon at Lambeau, the present will belong to Brett Favre, because he knows the future is a precarious concept to harness.

There is no doubt that the Giants have been playing like they don’t just want a rematch with New England, but they are entitled to it. The defense has been outstanding, tossing aside the Buccaneers like rag dolls before bullying the Cowboys into submission once Eli gave them a lead in the second half. But a Sunday on the frozen tundra of Lambeau with a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, well that’s a different story. Early forecasts are calling for a temperature in the low single digits. It also snows pretty much everyday in Green Bay during the winter. Given that Eli has never played in temperatures colder than 24 degrees, and given that Brett Favre, well uh, has, it’s simply not possible to expect Eli to maintain his level of performance. Both teams will want and need to run the ball. Both defenses will be stingy and stout in the red zone. This is going to be an old-school type football game, fought in the trenches, and decided in the fourth quarter. Eli and the Giants have had a defining season that will undoubtedly springboard them to success for years to come. Sunday, however, is reserved for one of the game’s legends to shine one more time.

Packer 20 Giants 16

Jan 11

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NFL Divisional Preview

It’s Divisional Weekend of the NFL Playoffs. Need we say more?

Seattle at Green Bay “We want the ball, and we’re gonna score,” claimed Matt Hasselbeck four years ago. In that wild card game the Seahawks won the coin flip in overtime, got the ball, and scored. Problem was, Hasselbeck threw a pick-6 to Al Harris and the Packers advanced without Brett Favre even taking the field in the sudden death period. Since that day Seattle has won three playoff games and appeared in a Super Bowl. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost two straight in January. That streak will come to an end on Saturday. Proponents of a Seattle upset argue that the youth of Green Bay will have trouble dealing with the “Lambeau mystique”. I disagree. As much as he would like to reflect on the moment in jest, there must be a part of Hasselbeck that is haunted by that January day in 2004. He challenged the aura of Green Bay and paid the price of elimination. Now, once again, the Seahawks hopes will ride on the shoulders of Hasselbeck. The Green Bay defense is young and physical, led by a star in the making, AJ Hawk. They will stuff Shaun Alexander and put the onus on Hasselbeck to beat them through the air against one of the best matchup-corner tandems in the league (Harris and Charles Woodson). If Green Bay can establish any running game with Ryan Grant and force the Seahawks to bring extra defenders into the box, this game could get ugly because Favre’s primary receivers (Donald Driver and Greg Jennings) will have one on one coverage on the outside. Seattle should be able to bring pressure with their front seven and keep the game close. If any of Green Bay’s young guys are going to experience some playoff jitters, I would suspect Grant. But that’s okay when Favre is your quarterback.

Packers 27 Seahawks 17

Jacksonville at New England Take a look around and what you will find in some form is how or why the Patriots are going to lose to the Jaguars Saturday night. Look in the Chicago Sun Times. Check out NFL.com. The Los Angeles Times. And of course, the torchbearer, Jeremy Green of ESPN.com. Picking the Jags took form as a trend. Like the inevitability associated with all trends, it’s now so overblown that it’s bordering on ludicrous. Thirty-eight percent of nearly 40,000 voters on ESPN.com are picking the Jaguars. Anyone remember roller blades or starter jackets? In fifteen years you’ll remember the 2007 Jaguars the same way. Faintly. Jacksonville is a tough, run-oriented team with a hard hitting defense, but their secondary cannot contend with the passing attack led by Tom Brady (it couldn’t even protect an 18-point lead against the Steelers). The Patriots have an aging linebacker core that has proven susceptible to the run, which is justifiably a reason for concern. The Jaguars two-headed rushing monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have some success. Anyone expecting more than that is severely underestimating Bill Belichick. Rodney Harrison will be continually stalking the line of scrimmage, ready to blow up runs. The Patriots defensive line is fixing to explode, with Richard Seymour at last healthy and poised to regain his dominant form. Jacksonville will need to score a minimum of four touchdowns to compete with the Patriots, and Belichick’s schemes will force three of those to come from a source other than a score on the ground from a Jags running back. Jacksonville will play with the Patriots for two quarters before getting run out of Foxborough in the second half.

Patriots 34 Jaguars 17

San Diego at Indianapolis By early Sunday afternoon the Colts will be preparing to face the Chargers. A win will put them back in the AFC title game; their nemesis will already be waiting for them, a little less than a thousand miles to the northeast. Don’t expect lack of focus to be a problem for the Colts though. Twice the Chargers and Colts have met in the last three years. Twice the Colts have lost. The first was the fourteenth game of the 2005 season. San Diego waltzed into the RCA Dome and polished the 13-0 Colts, 26-17. The second was two months ago on a Sunday night, when Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions (and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning chip shot field goal). In that game he had only one regular target in his arsenal, Reggie Wayne. On Sunday he should have everyone, most notably Marvin Harrison. The speed of the Chargers linebacker core has been the impetus of the havoc wreaked on Manning the last two meetings. An early heavy dose of Joseph Addai should keep Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips honest. After that Manning will go to work against a spotty San Diego secondary. On the Chargers side, LaDainian Tomlinson stepped up at the biggest point in the game last week against Tennessee, converting a key third down and a scoring an important insurance touchdown late. On Sunday he’ll need something in the neighborhood of 150 total yards and three touchdowns to give his team a chance. One thing to note is that amid all the hoopla surrounding the Patriots this season, the Colts are still the defending champs. Not only will this be a payback game against a team that has gotten the better of them over the last few years, but it will also mark the beginning of Indy’s title defense.

Colts 31 Chargers 20

New York at Dallas This will be the game of the NFC playoffs. Two old school rivals who have battled for a half century but have never met in January. Two rich football traditions that hit hard times over the last decade only to rise again. The two brightest young quarterbacks in the league; one an undersized no-name from Eastern Illinois; the other a kid-brother following a lineage of pioneers at the position. They played their two annual divisional games this year and Dallas won a couple of Texas shootouts. So who will take round three? The team that turns the ball over the fewest times. If Tony Romo and Eli Manning share a common weakness, an Achilles heel if you will, it is their tendency to turn the ball over in bunches. Like most young and talented quarterbacks, Romo and Manning are streaky. Over his last three games Romo has thrown five interceptions to just one touchdown. Eli has tossed six touchdowns and only one pick the last two games, against the Patriots and Bucs. He has also finally started to show an ability to handle a pass rush. So too has Romo, who at times has excelled when flushed from the pocket and been forced to make plays on the move. I expect both quarterbacks to play well, which means this game will end up swinging on the play of the defensive lines. Which pass rush will have the drive and stamina to go all-out for sixty minutes? Which unit will force a season-altering turnover in the fourth quarter to shift the momentum with a berth in a championship on the line? The logical choice is picking the team that’s 2-0 and not 0-2 head to head this season. The safe choice is going with the number one seed at home. Sometimes, however, the smart choice is sticking with the team that’s hot, the quarterback that’s hot. Michael Strahan will come up huge in the fourth quarter and Eli Manning will silence Texas Stadium.

Giants 34 Cowboys 31

Jan 4

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NFL Wild Card Preview (plus picks)

Happy New Year. You know what that means. The NFL Playoffs are upon us. The first four of 11 games are set to kick off this weekend, and should mark the beginning of a January for the books. After playing wild card weekend last year, both the Patriots and Colts have reclaimed first round byes and restored balance in the AFC. The pigskin universe awaits another imminent rematch between the arch rivals in the AFC Championship, which will be their fourth playoff joust in the last five years. The NFC has turned back the clock even further. The Cowboys and Packers are the top two seeds again. Combined, the teams went more than two decades without a bye.

It must be noted that if there were ever a downside to the start of postseason football, it’s this year. And it has nothing to do with the game of football. I’m talking about 24. Jack Bauer. The post-playoff power hours. Because of the writers’ strike in Hollywood, 24 was forced to scrap production less than halfway through the season. For the first time in three years there will be no two-hour season premier of 24 coming directly on the heels of a Sunday playoff double header. No Bauer kill counts. No PDA-communiques between Jack and Chloe. No unexpected Tony Almeida returns (if he’s even still alive). What a pity. For the time being we’ll just have to monitor the illicit activity of Jack’s alter ego, Kiefer Sutherland.

(One quick tangent while we’re here. FOX has clearly tried to dupe us all into thinking they still have a killer winter lineup, in spite of the writers’ work stoppage. In lieu of the annual conspicuous 24 plugs and previews–which usually start around Thanksgiving–FOX has substituted Prison Break. I swear, I watched the first season of that show like three years ago and they were one night away from breaking out of prison. It couldn’t even hold my interest then. Now we’re supposed to believe that the fifth half of the first season of Prison Break is really going to quench that singular Jack-thirst? Come on. I’m just waiting for someone with more Hollywood knowledge to expand on the potential consequences of this atrocity. I’ll nominate the Sports Guy. Considering that his wife–in addition to weaning his infant son–is now the proprietor of his weekly NFL picks column, it’s time he gives ESPN a reason not to rename his site, the “Sports Gal’s World”.)

Onto the games this weekend.

Washington at Seattle I won’t deny that two weeks ago I didn’t even see the Redskins making the playoffs. Now they’re riding a surreal wave of momentum (four consecutive wins against the Bears, Giants, Vikings and Cowboys to close out the season) and are certainly not fazed by going into Seattle for a playoff game. Todd Collins (yes the same Todd Collins who hasn’t been heard from since the late ’90s) has been the catalyst (5 TD/0 INT/106.4 rating) of Washington’s run and will have to remain as he has been over the last month: flawless. He’ll also have to lead a team that has been playing emotion-driven football into the toughest road environment for an opposing team, Qwest Field. Given everything that’s transpired with the Skins this year and the stadium they’ll have to conquer in order to advance, I can’t see it happening. The Redskins will make a few vital mental mistakes, mistakes that a playoff hardened quarterback like Matt Hasselbeck will capitalize on.

Seahawks 23 Redskins 17

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh The Jaguars have become the super-trendy pick to not just win a playoff game, not just go into New England in round two and knock off the 16-0 Patriots, but possibly duplicate the 2005 Steelers by winning three road games en route to Super Bowl XLII. Hyping a good, not great team rarely pays off. This is the game I am most torn on, only because of Pittsburgh’s myriad injuries. No Willie Parker. No Max Starks. No Aaron Smith. That’s a Pro Bowl running back and his right tackle as well as the Steelers’ rock on the defensive line, if you’re scoring at home. The Steelers also haven’t looked the same since going up to Foxborough and getting stomped by the Patriots in early December. Since that game they’ve lost two of three, including one against Jacksonville at Heinz Field. What has been forgotten from that game, largely in part because the Jags racked up 224 yards on the ground, is that the Steelers were also able to run the ball (111 yards on only 17 attempts) and that Jacksonville too is without their playmaker up front (Marcus Stroud). Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball with Najeh Davenport. I believe this rematch is going to come down to quarterback play. David Garrard has shown himself to be the ultimate game-manager but Ben Roethlisberger has won a Super Bowl.

Steelers 30 Jaguars 27

New York at Tampa Bay Two teams that entered the final week of the season with nothing to play for. The Bucs used the time to rest key players while the Giants went for broke in a valiant attempt to derail a perfect season. Now the G-Men are a little banged up and the Bucs are healthy. Don’t be deceived though. The Giants are entering this game on an extreme high, a high that is probably unmatched in history by a team having lost its previous game. Tampa, on the other hand, has not looked good of late, losers of three of their last four. So much of the Giants success relies on confidence, specifically the confidence of quarterback Eli Manning. Eli played out of his mind against the Patriots last weekend, tossing four touchdowns and almost leading an upset of the greatest (regular season) team of all time. The Giants defense also feeds off the state of mind of the unpredictable-Manning. They are a tenacious and skilled group, but tend to lose focus when Eli is tossing ducks to the opposing defense and putting them in tough spots. The Giants are a week removed from the first-ever moral victory in the NFL. The odd feeling stemming from that battle left them ultimately unsatisfied, but also hungry for their first playoff win under Tom Coughlin.

Giants 23 Buccaneers 14

Tennessee at San Diego The only game that was in question for the Chargers in their current-six game winning streak was at Tennessee a month ago. The Titans had the Bolts on the ropes, leading 17-3 in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t seal the deal. LaDainian Tomlinson capped off the comeback with a 16-yard touchdown run midway through overtime to lead San Diego to a 23-17 win. To add insult to injury (actually the other way around), Vince Young strained a quad in the Titans’ season finale last week against the Colts. Now there’s a quarterback controversy in Tennessee. Kerry Collins is a better fit for attacking the Chargers defense through the air. Young is obviously the better option on the ground. It won’t really matter. LT has finally been running with the sense of fury and purpose I expected from Week 1. His play of late (602 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the last five games) has proven he’s still stewing over what went down in his house against the Patriots last year. He’s still the best player in the league, and come Sunday evening you’ll know why.

Chargers 34 Titans 20

Here are the rest of my playoff picks.

NFC Divisional Round

Packers over Seahawks

Cowboys over Giants

AFC Divisional Round

Patriots over Steelers

Colts over Chargers

NFC Championship

Packers over Cowboys

AFC Championship

Patriots over Colts

Super Bowl XLII

Patriots over Packers

Dec 20

NFL Playoff Picture

Two weeks left. Lot’s to be hashed out, except at the top. In the AFC, the Patriots have clinched home field throughout the playoffs and the Colts have secured the vital second bye. The Packers and Cowboys have both clinched byes in the NFC, but with identical 12-2 records, home field is still up in the air. Dallas owns the tiebreaker against Green Bay by virtue of its head to head victory, so if the Cowboys win out (at Carolina, at Washington), the top spot will be theirs.

After that it gets complicated. Eight teams will be playing wild card weekend, with three (Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Diego) already clinching their respective divisions. While the Bucs, Seahawks and Chargers are in, it remains to be seen whether those teams will end up with #3 or #4 seeds. That leaves four teams (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Tennessee) battling for three spots in the AFC, and four teams (New York, Washington, Minnesota and New Orleans) duking it out for two spots in the NFC. So who’ll still be playing football on the first weekend of 2008?

NFC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at San Francisco; versus Carolina

Best case scenario NFC #3 seed

It’s likely that…The Bucs will be the #4 seed and host a wild card game. They’ve already capped off another zany NFC South season in which the last place team from the previous year wins the division. Though even at 11-5, if they want the third seed they’ll still need help from Seattle, a team they lost to in Week 1. The Bucs defense has a few of the usual suspects (Derek Brooks, Ronde Barber, Greg Spires) from past squads, as well as some new faces (Cato June and Kevin Carter). Combined they’ve led a unit that is tied for best in the NFL in points allowed (15.6) and third in total defense.

Seattle Seahawks (9-5) versus Baltimore; at Atlanta

Best case scenario NFC #3 seed

It’s likely that…The Hawks will beat the NFL implosions better known as the Ravens and Falcons and snag the third seed. Who would have thought that a 20-6 Week 1 victory over the Bucs would be the difference between the #3 and #4 slots in the NFC? Not many. What is established is the Seahawks have proved themselves to be the NFC’s best closing team. Their success over the last four years makes it difficult to label them a “dark horse”, but let’s be clear about one thing: Seattle doesn’t lose postseason games at Qwest Field

Washington Redskins (7-7) at Minnesota; versus Dallas

Best case scenario NFC #6 seed

It’s likely that…A promising season turned-tragic after the loss of Sean Taylor will end just short of the playoffs for the Redskins. To mentally and emotionally regroup enough to win two of three football games after such a trying time is remarkable. Taylor was the probably the team’s MVP before his murder, which has made it even more difficult to bounce back for Washington. For the Skins to have a realistic chance they have to win both of their remaining games. Right now it seems like even a split is implausible.

Minnesota Vikings (8-6) versus Washington; at Denver

Best case scenario NFC #5 seed

It’s likely that…The Vikings beat Washington and lose to Denver, securing the final NFC playoff spot. Behind Adrian Peterson, Minnesota has looked downright frightening throughout their current five-game winning streak. Included in that run were decisive wins against the Giants and Lions, which primed the Vikings for the playoff push they’re in the middle of. It’s tough to sustain that high level of play for an extended period of time. It’s possible the Vikings will sew up a playoff spot this week. Either way, a game in frosty Denver at Mile High against a bitter Broncos team will be a tall order for a young Vikings team.

New Orleans Saints (7-7) versus Philadelphia; at Chicago

Best case scenario NFC #6 seed

It’s likely that…The Saints will break even at 8-8 and end up on the outside looking in. Very rarely does a team start 0-4 and even sniff the playoffs, but that’s exactly what the Saints have done. However there is truly no room for error when trying to rebound from such a horrid first quarter, and the Saints erred big time two weeks ago. When the season is over, they’ll look back at the game they gave away against Tampa Bay as the death blow to their improbable turnaround.

New York Giants (9-5) at Buffalo; versus New England

Best case scenario NFC #5 seed

It’s likely that…The Giants will knock off Buffalo and clinch a playoff berth before using the Patriots game as a bye week to prepare for the playoffs. There has been endless debate in New York about whether or not the Giants should try to prevent history and load up the chambers for a war with the Patriots. While a full-strength Giants team could present a formidable challenge to the Patriots perfect season quest, it makes no sense. Preparing a team to advance in the playoffs is all that matters. Expect Tom Coughlin to follow that script.

AFC

San Diego Chargers (9-5) versus Denver; at Oakland

Best case scenario AFC #3 seed

It’s likely that...The Chargers take the #3 seed after rolling over Denver and Oakland. Lest we forget these are the same players that went 14-2 last year. Norv Turner may not be as good of a regular season coach as Marty Schottenheimer, but there’s no way he can be as bad of a playoff coach as his predecessor. If there’s one divisional round game I’m already looking ahead to, it’s Colts-Chargers. Remember, San Diego is the only team other than New England to beat the Colts this year, and they are playing much better football than they were when the two teams last met, in early November.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at St. Louis; at Baltimore

Best case scenario AFC #3 seed

It’s likely that…The Steelers recover from their lull, put Anthony Smith’s ludicrous and juvenile “guarantee” behind them and hold off the charging-Browns in the AFC North, which will give them the fourth seed and a home game in the first round of the playoffs. The Pittsburgh “Steel City” defense has let them down in both crucial facets of the game the last two weeks, against the Patriots and Jaguars. First they watched Tom Brady throw for 399 yards, then they got run over by Jacksonville’s rushing offense, which gained over 200 yards on the ground. Troy Polamalu will be key to the Steelers righting the ship defensively.

Cleveland Browns (9-5) at Cincinnati; versus San Francisco

Best case scenario AFC #3 seed

It’s likely that…The Browns wrap up the final AFC playoff spot with a win against the 49ers. If they hadn’t lost twice to the Steelers, Cleveland would be controlling its own destiny in the AFC North. Regardless, it’s been a special season for Romeo Crennel and Derek Anderson in the city that rocks. It’s appearing more and more unlikely that the Browns and Steelers will meet for a third time in the wild card round, but if that ends up being the case, an old rivalry could really heat up.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) versus Oakland; at Houston

Best case scenario AFC #5 seed

It’s likely that…The Jaguars will again be a 12-win wild card team because they’re in a division with the Colts. Most recently, in 2005, the Jags won 12 games (more than each wild card team) and were forced to go on the road to New England in the first round because of the Colts. Even on the road they will be a tough out, as they proved with their win in Pittsburgh last week. Fred Taylor is the most under-appreciated running back of the last decade and David Garrard runs as efficient an offense as there is in the league.

Tennessee Titans (8-6) versus NY Jets; at Indianapolis

Best case scenario AFC #6 seed

It’s likely that…Like last year, the Titans will end up being the AFC team with too little too late. Like the Saints, Tennessee committed the cardinal sin in the NFL by blowing a playoff-like game late in the season. Against San Diego, the Titans had a chance to kill the clock and secure a victory, but failed. Now, unless they win out and get some help, they too will be scorning an opportunity lost.

Dec 15

2 Comments

Stretch Run for the Patriots

And so the rat returns to face the perpetrator. Now it’ll get interesting.

Or perhaps not.

The Patriots are 13-0, one win away from joining the ’72 Dolphins as the only team to win fourteen regular season games without a loss. Unforeseen nail-biters against Philly and Baltimore are in the rear-view; so too is a dispatching of the Steelers, formerly billed as “the last hurdle”. All that’s left to tackle (among an assortment of Jets, Dolphins and Giants) is history. The formality of formalities.

While Patriots-speak forbids peering down the road at what may be, it’s nearly impossible not to see the finish line taking form. On Sunday against the Jets, be it rain or shine, well predicted-Nor’easter or meteorological hype, the Patriots are going to hand Mangini’s boys a beating. It’s going to be fun, for sure, but interesting? All the media wants to know is what will ultimatley be icier: the conditions on the field in Foxborough or the post-massacre handshake between coaches. While Coach Bill would never reveal a goal loftier than winning one football game that’s next on the schedule, the eternally curt-Belichick gave writers and fans a singular slice of something other than humble pie during his midweek press conference leading up to the Jets game.

The questions were naturally focused on how “the handshake” would go down, to which the monotonous guru responded predictably: “Right now my focus is on getting ready for the New York Jets.” Mmm hmm.

Anything else, coach?

“High-fives, I haven’t really thought too much about that,” he continued. “Cartwheels.”

Whoa, rewind that. Was that (gulp!) humor emanating from the robotic minister of Patriots information? Did the coach’s inner comedian suffer a Freudian slip? Uh, no. Judging from the wily smirk that followed the quip, in a moment that brought brief but distinct animation to an otherwise insipid public persona, it sure as heck seemed like Bill was temporarily deviating from the token replies established by his personally accumulated guidebook to press conferences, “Belichick Media Responses 1A through 999Z”. In a split second Bill delivered a one-two punch that left the press corps reeling. First a joke…then a grin??

Since it is common knowledge that at the podium Belichick doesn’t so much as scratch his nose without calculation, one could only wonder what he was really trying to say. I mean we are talking about a guy whose total number of recorded smiles in his Patriots-tenure could be counted on one hand.

Was he foreshadowing a rehearsed post-game routine that would involve pirouettes and would thoroughly rub bitter defeat in the face of his protege-turned-squealer? Nah, Bill’s never really been the melodramatic type. More probable is the possibility that he was using some media-driven triviality to express his general feelings about the state of Patriot-affairs at this point in the 2007 season. Because from a Patriots point of view, things are looking so downright peachy these days, apparently a smile was in order.

The goal of Belichick’s Patriots since he took over the team in 2000 has always been the same: get to the games that matter, the games in December and January, and enter those games as the stronger and more meticulously prepared team. When the weather gets colder and the season is already 12-odd games in the books, it is schemes, game-planning and the mental toughness to go sixty minutes that come to the forefront. Under Bill, with countless different inserted-working parts over the years, it is in those circumstances that the Patriots have thrived.

Since 2001, New England has gone a combined 38-7 (.844) over the last month of the regular season and through the playoffs. Belichick and Brady are 12-2 in the postseason together. Translation: this is their time. So what does this have to do with one smirk from Belichick in relation to a very specific topic? In this sportswriters opinion, everything.

What Belichick now sees, even if he’ll never come close to admitting it, is the perfection he’s sought since before this latest Jets game, before CameraGate and even before the start of the ’07 campaign. It all began back in Indy last January, in the AFC Championship. The Patriots were supposed to win that game. Belichick knew it. Brady knew it. Josh McDaniels and Scott Pioli and the Kraft’s knew it. We all did. The Patriots were up to their old tricks: they were beating a team with superior talent on the biggest stage simply by being mentally and physically tougher, by being better-coached, by making fewer mistakes, and by collectively knowing that they’d make the one game-changing play required to advance or win a championship.

But they didn’t. They couldn’t. For once it was the Patriots’ opposition that was able to make the adjustments. For once it was the other team making the championship-clinching play. For the first time since Belichick and Brady hooked up, the “inferior talent but superior team” factor that had defined the glory of their improbable triumphs against the Rams and Steelers and previous Colts’ outfits had finally come back to bite them in the rear. Against Indy, they were again outmatched skill-wise, but the difference was this time they actually lost the game.

Thus commenced an entire shift in the modus operandi of the Patriots’ brass. Never again would a lack of talent thwart the Patriots in their quest to become the franchise that redefined NFL-history. So in trotted Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth. Perfection was the un-divulged goal from square one. However, before this new team even had a chance to come together, Eric Mangini broke an unspoken coaches code–throwing kerosene on a fire that had started burning in Indy last year–and morphed a New England goal into a Patriot-vendetta.

No one said it would be easy, and as much as Belichick and his team believed it could happen, perfection would still have to be earned. After storming back against the Colts and surviving the Ravens, the Patriots have shown they are up to the task.

Yes, they still have six more games before goals can be achieved and vendettas settled. But the point is, this is their time. Games against the lowly Jets, the hapless Dolphins and the Giants jayvee squad will formalize a perfect 16-0 season and put the Patriots exactly where they want to be: in Foxborough with two games at Gillette for the right to return to the Super Bowl.

Indeed, I gleaned all this conjecture from a single smirk. But I’ll ask you this: if we’ve already seen Belichick crack a smile this season, a happening that in past years has only been witnessed after an Adam Vinatieri title-winning kick, what could still be to come?

I for one have a feeling he’s saving the cartwheels for Phoenix.

Nov 27

4 Comments

Cheers and Jeers: NFL Week 12

Here are some cheers and jeers following a bizarre Week 12 in the NFL…

Cheers to Chad Johnson for bringing back some of that Ocho Cinco zest and revealing he still has a knack for the theatric. Against the Titans Johnson caught a season-high 12 passes for 103 yards and three touchdowns. After his first score, which doubled as the first time he’d seen the end zone since Week 2, #85 took control of a sideline camera and filmed his fans in happy mode. Other than a classic (yet seemingly under-the-radar) ESPN interview between Keyshawn Johnson and Chad, the entertaining Ocho Cinco has not been heard from nearly enough this year. The NFL put its foot down on excessive touchdown celebrations, which is one reason for the generally toned-down merriment following scores. As for Chad’s fall from grace, the Bengals played poorly all season, which should explain why until Sunday we’d seen very little of one of the more vocal and dramatic personalities in the league. If Chad can lead Cincinnati back to relevance that’s a good thing for the NFL (considering this season it hasn’t repeatedly had to send representatives to courtrooms on behalf of Bengal players).

Now, to go from the uplifting to the unfair…

Jeers to Peyton Manning for showing up to “root” for his brother when the Giants hosted the Vikings. Like Eli doesn’t know Peyton has been better than him at every level of football since Pop Warner. Not only did Eli have to contend with Minnesota’s formidable pass rush, he had to do so with his big bro dissecting every play from his perch in a Giants Stadium luxury box. How did Eli respond to the sibling pressure? By throwing four interceptions (three for touchdowns) to the woeful Vikings secondary. Sibling rivalries are always intense, especially when they wind their way to the pinnacle of a sport (just ask Venus and Serena Williams). Thing is with Peyton and Eli, only one of them is at the pinnacle of football. The other one is a serviceable quarterback who just happened to throw three touchdowns to the other team Sunday. Look, this may have been destined to be one of those “Eli games” but his brother certainly didn’t help the cause. Shouldn’t Peyton have been buried in a tape room somewhere preparing for Jacksonville?

Speaking of two guys who will be spending some time in the tape room…

Jeers to Gus Frerotte and Kurt Warner for fumbling the ball on the last the play of the game. All Frerotte had to do was take the snap on fourth-and-goal from the Seattle 1-yard line, hand the ball to Steven Jackson and walk off the turf that formerly housed “The Greatest Show”. Instead he botched the snap, dropped the ball and lost the game. Warner’s gaffe was almost as egregious and equally decisive. In overtime against the 49ers, Warner’s Cardinals were backed up at their own 3-yard line. On first down Warner dropped back into the end zone, couldn’t find an open receiver, and was stripped of the football. Tully Banta-Cain recovered the freebie for the game-winning touchdown. For two quarterbacks with a combined 23 years of NFL experience, the fashion in which Frerotte and Warner exited the field Sunday was embarrassing to say the least.

On a more positive note…

Cheers to the Eagles for displaying their disgust at being on the short end of a 24-point spread by nearly taking down the Patriots in Foxborough. If New England has been the ruthless model of efficiency this season the Eagles have been the total opposite model of chaos. Donovan McNabb and the city of Philadelphia are approaching the end of a bitter relationship. Eagles coach Andy Reid has dealt with domestic issues of monumental proportions. No one would have blinked twice if the Patriots dropped the Eagles by four touchdowns. Yet led by A.J. Feeley and a fearless, unrelenting pass rush Philly hung with the Patriots for four quarters, something no team (even the Colts) has accomplished against the Pats this year. While the term “blueprint” may be a little exaggerated, the Eagles clearly showed the rest of the league that any defense with the stones to consistently rush five and six guys can disrupt Tom Brady. If an NFL team ever deserved a pat on the back in defeat, it was the Eagles on Sunday night.

Speaking of pats on the back…

Cheers to NBC for pumping up the volume on the sideline microphones at Gillette Stadium, which enabled viewers to literally hear how Tom Brady was dealing with the Eagles’ various defensive alignments and pass rushes. Time after time Brady took the play clock down to the final seconds, letting out a hail of adjustments to his receivers and linemen in an attempt to warn them of impending defensive movement. More than once he called out a hot route or refined blocking assignment to a receiver by name (“Gaf..” “Randy..”). We also heard Brady use the audible “Omaha” on more than one occasion, and given the tranquil atmosphere he even took to whispering something in the ear of Kevin Faulk before taking a snap out of the shotgun. NBC’s first two broadcasts of Patriots games were filled with a lot gushing on the parts of Al Michaels and John Madden. In Week 2 against San Diego it was all about CameraGate and last week in Buffalo they took turns tossing the “perfect season” salad. Last night NBC simply broadcast a football game and let the players do most of the talking.

Finally…

Jeers to Todd Sauerbrun for pretty much single-footedly losing the game for Denver in Chicago. As a kicker I believe Sauerbrun should have gotten the memo about Devin Hester. You know, the one that outlines how Hester is the most electric return man ever to play the game of football!!!!! How’s this for a bad day: first Sauerbrun booms a punt to Hester in the third quarter, which the lightning returner takes to the house; then after the offense has given the Broncos a 20-13 lead, Sauerbrun’s kick off sails straight down the field to Hester, who snatches it and torches another Denver coverage unit for six more; then with a 34-20 lead late in the game and Denver forced to punt, Sauerbrun, so concerned with keeping his boot away from Hester, instead doesn’t even get the kick away and has it blocked. 17 unanswered points later and the Broncos had ample reason to leave the Windy City feeling pretty Sauer.

Here’s the updated power poll…

NFL Top Five Power Poll: Week 12

1. Patriots (11-0)

2. Cowboys (10-1)

3. Packers (10-1)

4. Colts (9-2)

5. Jaguars (8-3)

Nov 21

6 Comments

Patriots vs. Vegas/Week 11 Power Poll

Vegas always wins. That’s one adage to live by if you don’t happen to reside in the top one percent of gamblers. There’s a reason the Vegas Strip is so gaudy, the casinos are so flashy and the sportsbooks are so ethereal (so to speak). It’s because you’re leaving your money there. Duh. The point of this piece is not to rant about the ploys and allure of casinos, because there are tons of spots around the country where you can get screwed at the blackjack table and have it sanctioned by the state legislature. However only in one locale can you happen upon the aforementioned, otherworldly venue called a sportsbook, and wager on any sporting event you desire. That would be Las Vegas (and the rest of the barren state it’s a part of, Nevada).

The reason Vegas always wins when it comes to sports wagering is because, quite simply, it’s smarter than the vast majority of people making bets. Vegas has professional analysts, cutting edge computers and some of the most shrewd statisticians, all working in accord to assure it comes out on top. The logic behind Vegas gambling lines (or “point spreads”) is simple. The goal is to set a line that will attract an equal number of wagers on either side. In other words, if 1000 people are each going to bet $100 on a specific game, oddsmakers ideally want 500 of those wagers to go on the favored team and the other 500 to go on the underdog. Considering for each bet the gambler must pay a ten percent wager-fee (colloquially called “the vig”), if oddsmakers succeed in balancing the bets, the house takes in its ten percent on all bets made, and wins. Of course the strategy is far more complex than that, but in a nutshell that’s the essence of a Nevada sportsbook.

So how does this tie into the Patriots? Put bluntly, the Patriots are seriously threatening to fleece Vegas like no sports team in my memory (and possibly of all-time). The answer to how and why the Patriots (read: those people gambling on the Patriots) are systematically beating Vegas is two fold. First is the the sheer talent and capability of this team relative to the rest of the league. They’re better than the field, and everybody knows it. Second (and more importantly within the context of Vegas) is CameraGate. Post-CameraGate, Bill Belichick has his team so bloodthirsty and vengeance-seeking, even Vegas can’t account for it. Traditionally in professional sports, wins and losses are more or less all that matter to teams (meaning average margin of victory isn’t very significant). Unlike college, where writers and coaches vote to determine how teams rank in relation to one another (which is why forty and fifty point blowouts are common in the NCAA), professional sports boil down to “Ws” or “Ls”. In addition, Vegas has always benefited from the concept of professionalism within pro sports. That is to say that these guys are, at the core, part of a business, and while habitually competing against one another, they are nonetheless colleagues in their respective professions.

The Patriots are nobody’s colleagues but their own. You can throw “professionalism” into a bucket with “running up the score”, douse it with lighter fluid, add a lit match and toss it right out the window. The only way this team interprets the notion of professionalism is by playing sixty minutes of butt-kicking football every week. This is the conundrum Vegas has found itself trying to solve. Here are two constants that Vegas must cope with: 1) on any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team; 2) the Patriots are winning football games by an average of 25 points.

Now because the goal of a sportsbook is to get action on both sides of a point spread, and given the historically-tested “any given Sunday” theory, Vegas is wary about pushing NFL lines into the 20s, no matter how obvious a perceived mismatch there is. It screws up that balance they’re looking for, and usually teams don’t keep pouring it on with three touchdown leads. Except Bill’s boys, driven by superior talent and fueled by retribution. For the record, the Patriots are either 9-0-1 or 9-1 against the spread this year (the line against the Colts fluctuated from -4 to -5.5 and the Patriots won by four, so some gamblers who utilized the four point spread conceivably pushed their bets that week, neither winning nor losing.)

That said, non-compulsive gamblers likely steered clear of the Colts game, simply because Pats-Colts has proven a tall order to predict. To put all this in perspective, imagine you were in Las Vegas before Week 1 of the NFL season and put $100 on the Patriots. If each week, minus the Colts game, you let it all ride (ie reinvested your initial bet plus what you profited into another Patriots-wager), today you would be sitting on $46,080 (or $51,200 – $5,120). The little more than five grand would be the ten percent you owe to the sportsbook for placing the bets.

Allow me to be the first (or millionth) to inform you: you’re not supposed to be able to turn a hundred bucks into fifty thousand. Vegas is supposed to curb that streak waaaaay before it gets going. If you went on a run like that at the blackjack table the casino powers would have you set up in a luxury suite before you turned your first ten grand. Yet here we are, two-thirds through the 2007 NFL season, and the Patriots have already dealt a severe blow to the sports gaming monopoly residing in the western desert. Believe me, there are many serious gamblers out there riding the heck out of this Patriots wave. Sure, in the grand scheme it may only be a pin prick through the monstrous moneymaking enterprise that is Vegas, but rest assured, it’s a pin prick straight through the heart of the beast.

How’s that for a different take on the Patriots’ dominance? Now here’s my latest power poll, highlighting the cream of NFL mortals…

NFL Top Five Power Poll: Week 11

1. Patriots (10-0) The Pats are early 22 point favorites this week against the Eagles. Now someone tell me they’re surprised.

2. Cowboys (9-1) For the first time since I’ve been an online sportswriter (which isn’t terribly long, but still) I have an NFC team in the top two. My logic here is that with the Colts losing twice and the Cowboys standing at 9-0 against everyone but the Patriots, they deserve the ranking. The Tony Romo to Terrell Owens combo has been jaw-dropping of late. Since their loss to New England in Week 6, the Boys have run off four straight, and Romo has found T.O. eight times for touchdowns. The defense has played markedly better as well. After giving up 48 points to New England, the Dallas D has shut down opposing offenses to the tune of 18.5 points per game.

3. Packers (9-1) What more can you say about Brett Favre and the Pack? Green Bay has won in Denver, in Kansas City and in New Jersey against the Giants. Favre’s quarterback rating of 98.6 is the highest of his career since 1995 (99.5), when he was embarking on a streak of three-straight league MVP awards. He’s already thrown more touchdowns (19) than he did all last year (18). What was unquestionably the team’s greatest weakness, its running game, appears to be solved. Ryan Grant (who? an undrafted free agent from Notre Dame, that’s who) has busted onto the scene, and averaged over 90 yards rushing in Green Bay’s last four games, all wins. Assuming the Packers win on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit (never an easy task), home field in the NFC will be on the line Thursday night November 29, when the Pack travels to Dallas.

4. Colts (8-2) The Colts are having a season in ’07 similar to the ’06 Patriots campaign. They’ve battled key injuries throughout (most significantly, Marvin Harrison) and struggled to win games. But they’ve continually found ways to post victories and look like a 12-4 team that will be contending for the second bye in the AFC. Still the Colts must get healthy if they want to even gain a rematch with the Patriots, let alone entertain notions of defending their crown against the Pats.

5. Giants (7-3) Earning a spot in the top five for the first time, the Geeeeeee-Men. As in “geeee this team loves laying an egg after a 6-2 start”. Yes, the Giants probably did lose the division by shooting themselves in the feet multiple times two weeks ago at the Meadowlands against Dallas. Down two games in the standings (which is basically three because the Giants lost both matchups with the Cowboys), the New York football Giants better get used to winning on the road, because that’s what they’ll have to do (again) come playoff time. The good news is with a fairly kind schedule (Minnesota, at Chicago, at Philly, Washington, at Buffalo) down the stretch, the G-Men should be 11-4 entering the season finale at home against the Patriots. Barring a Cowboys-implosion or a Patriots-loss, this game will be very interesting because neither the Giants (who will have the top wild card locked up) nor the Patriots (who will have home field secured) will have a lot to play for. Which means this game will officially qualify as “most playoff-like game with least on the line” status.

5a. Steelers (7-3) Let’s not mince words. When you lose to a 1-8 team you probably don’t deserve to be in the top five, no matter what your record is. Luckily the Steelers have the football tradition, not to mention a top-five running back and quarterback as well as one of the league’s elite defenses. That said, each statement the Steelers have made this year has been a losing statement (see: Arizona and the Jets). To date, their biggest win was a 38-7 trouncing on a Monday night of a Ravens team we all know would be better off with USC’s offense. After they beat the Dolphins and Bengals, Pittsburgh will see where it truly matches up on the proverbial measuring stick. On Sunday December 9, the 9-3 Steelers will travel to Foxborough to meet the 12-0 Patriots.

Nov 8

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Pats and Colts: Then and Now

This time around, it was the team with red trim to complement its white and blue that made the plays when they counted most. It was only Week 9, but the Patriots proved beyond a reasonable doubt that they are again kingpins of the NFL.

For the time being, after a 24-20 defeat, the still-defending champion Colts are number two.

Until matters are settled once and for all in January, the Colts will have to live with the fact that the script got flipped in here is my test captionthis rivalry. Again. After all, when you’re playing at home in the fourth quarter holding a 10-point lead and you happen to be Peyton Manning, the script is usually yours to pen. Especially in light of the demons the Colts were able to slay last January in that same Heat Dome.

In the 2006 AFC Championship Game, the Patriots played 40 minutes of superb football before collapsing to a superior Indianapolis team. Despite playing so well for so long, the game came down to two plays for New England: a failed third-down conversion at the 2:17 mark, which gave the ball back to Manning; and on the ensuing Colts drive, the inability of linebacker Eric Alexander to cover a sideline flag pattern run by tight end, Bryan Fletcher.

The impact of those two plays on the depleted and exhausted Patriots was season-ending. The third down that would’ve iced the game was ill-fated because of an unprecedented miscommunication between Tom Brady and Troy Brown. Mr. Old Reliable simply ran the wrong route. The 32-yard strike to Fletcher, which accounted for the bulk of the Colts championship-winning drive, was inevitable. Alexander, starting his first NFL game at linebacker, was nowhere near nimble enough to contend with the down field presences of Fletcher and Dallas Clark (who singlehandedly torched the Pats linebacker corps and secondary).

In that game the Patriots out-schemed, out-executed and thoroughly outplayed the Colts for the majority of three quarters, but it wasn’t enough. Two more plays and it would have been.

Lest we forget, that was then and this is now. What a difference an offseason makes.

Subsequent to that defeat the Patriots went on a talent-feeding frenzy, making it clear that lack of viable personnel would never thwart them again. As fast as you can say “Randy Moss for a fourth rounder plus CameraGate”, the entire mindset of the team and its fans morphed. No longer would games be played merely to win, they’d be played to conquer.

What we knew before Week 9 was that the Patriots could pretty much systematically destroy any opponent, and show no mercy in doing so. Any opponent, that is, but the Colts. What we discovered after this regular season’s Pats-Colts installment was that these Patriots still remember how to win close games in the fourth quarter, which used to be the team’s m.o.

Playing consistent sound football was also a requisite of past-Patriots teams; that’s how they won an NFL-record 21 games straight between the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Many of those games were won by Brady leading a late go-ahead drive or the defense making a game-saving stop. Their average margin of victory was just a shade over a touchdown. However those teams didn’t have a receiving corps of Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte’ Stallworth. But these new Patriots do, and last Sunday against the Colts they showed they’re capable of beating the best even while playing almost their worst.

Let’s be honest: the Patriots had no business winning this football game. They were down 20-10 with 9:42 left. The first fifty minutes were sorry. Tom Brady had thrown not one, but two interceptions (although the second was a “play of the year” pick by Gary Brackett), only his third and fourth of the season. The noise level in the RCA Dome was so high the only way the coaching staff could get plays to Brady was via signals, and it’s evident that Brady himself had to call at least a handful of plays.

The defense was suspect too. At the end of the first half it allowed a check-down play to Joseph Addai to go for a 73-yard touchdown, and the Patriots lost the lead. The severity of giving up an uncharacteristic big-play in quasi-kneel time was augmented by the defense’s lack of discipline. The unit was penalized four times for 30 yards, and that doesn’t even include two pass interference calls (one mediocre and one terrible) on Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs that tallied 77 yards. Each one placed Indy on the doorstep of the Patriots goal line. Within character, the D tightened when manning the red zone against Peyton, and the Colts were only able to add a few “3’s” onto the scoreboard.

The Colts continued to let the Patriots hang around and they paid for it. It took all of four plays (a Moss 55-yard catch setting up a Welker 3-yard touchdown and a Stallworth 33-yard reception setting up a Kevin Faulk 13-yard score) over two successive fourth quarter drives for the dynamic Patriots offense to turn a 10-point deficit into a four point lead.

And just like that it might as well have been 2003, because this lead–unlike typical ’07 Pats leads–had to be protected. Protect it they did, as a team. The one play the defense had to make came at the 2:34 mark: it had to prevent Manning from converting a third and nine from midfield. Rosevelt Colvin accomplished that and more, charging Manning from his outside linebacker position and strip-sacking the helpless quarterback. Then the offense needed to gain one more first down before the two minute warning, and Brady found Welker on a quick-out (or the Troy Brown special), sealing the deal.

While CameraGate is due its fair share of credit for inspiring the Patriots to grind teams into the ground over sixty minutes, the concept itself is longstanding in Foxborough. The teams in ’01, ’03 and ’04 won Super Bowls because every time they took the field they were ready to fight for all sixty minutes. They lost the AFC Championship game last year because they didn’t have the talent and stamina to go the distance. This season they have both, and ever since CameraGate turned a philosophy into a vendetta, the Patriots have been downright nasty. Over the first eight weeks, they played from start to finish every Sunday and won each game by an average of 25 points.

Then they returned to the house of their demise last year; the place where they were taught the harshest of lessons, lessons that would’ve been many touchdowns harsher had that ’06 squad come out the way the Patriots did Sunday. While cumulatively the most recent sixty minutes they played was a far cry from their collective performance over the first eight games, the common thread of finishing what was started remained. That’s clearly been the message this season. It was the same message the 2006 Patriots couldn’t heed. But that team didn’t have a Moss. It didn’t have a Welker or Stallworth or Adalius Thomas. It didn’t have CameraGate.

This team has all those things, and apparently, a little bit of each can go a long way. Even against the best.

NFL Top Five Power Poll: Week 9

1. Patriots (9-0)

2. Colts (7-1)

3. Cowboys (7-1)

4. Packers (7-1)

5. Steelers (6-2)

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