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Posts from the ‘NFL 2008’ Category

It’s the Steelers … Here’s Why

Something interesting happened this year. I stopped writing about my team. Because the Patriots’ season (of redemption) was derailed — by Bernard Pollard or Kevin Faulk or karma itself — before it had a chance to get rolling, I simply couldn’t bring myself to reprise my role as a de facto Pats beat writer/columnist. It was that role that sprung me to the early success I had in this business (way back when I was chronicling a dynasty for the Fordham University Theyre coming...publication, The Observer) and made me believe sportswriting was what I wanted to do.

So I tried something different. For the first time in a decade I watched football free of bias, hubris and emotion. I watched and rooted for the Patriots every week, but with nothing personal at stake. Merely as a fan of the game. At a Steelers bar no less.

It’s well documented how much animosity Pittsburgh fans harbor towards the Patriots. New England did twice blow through Heinz Field and thwart Steelers outfits (in 2001 and 2004) from reaching the Super Bowl.

As much as they may despise anyone associated with the Pats, I’ve always liked Pittsburgh. Envy its history and blue collar, hard-nosed style. Respect how its fan base embodies the grit and steel will of the franchise and city. And those Terrible Towels are pretty cool.

Naturally it was difficult — to say the least — to coexist with a crew that had undying hate for my team, that somehow knew and responded appropriately every time something bad happened in a Patriots game — even though the Pats were relegated to five or so TVs in an establishment boasting well over a hundred flat screens.

(For a bit of clarification, this bar is no ordinary sports bar, and I’m talking about the clientele. The average gentleman at “200 Fifth” is about two hundred and a fifth of another hundred pounds. You could field an NFL practice squad with the dudes who frequent this spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a handful of Pro Bowls among these guys. And the funny/scary thing is only the latter statement is hyperbole. But I digress.)

Since Patriots and Steelers games rarely coincided, I tended to get to the bar early, catch the Pats game and gravitate to the HD projection screen in the back that always played the Pittsburgh contests. Aside from a small clique of friendlies who knew and were relatively cool with my affiliations — yet still talked lots of smack — I acted largely as an impostor to the majority of the heads. Gotta look out for numero uno.

So there I was, just another tacit Pittsburgh supporter, plain clothes clad. A veritable Steeler Nation operative, rocking my fist when the good guys scored and shaking my head when they erred.

As much of an outsider as I was, over time I started to realize that the team I was faux following actually bore strong resemblance to the one I used to follow, back in The Observer days.

On a few occasions I have made reference to the fact that the 18-0 (and 18-1) Patriots simply weren’t comparable to the three-time champion Patriots. Were they prolific and dominant? Absolutely. But therein lay the problem. Their offensive supremacy covered up what was an aging defense that had seen its best days pass. More importantly, Brady and the offense rendered the defense a subsidiary part of the team for the majority of the season, and when it came time for the unit to step up, it was as if it suddenly couldn’t handle the pressure and stage it had once lived for.

Way back when, the Patriots defense anchored nine consecutive wins in January and February by exhibiting superior schemes, greater intellect, unrelenting toughness over sixty minutes and a knack for always making the handful of big plays and the one monstrous play necessary to move on and/or win a title. Brady, Brown and Vinatieri handled the rest.

I’ve got news for you, but no team — including the Patriots, who have gone a redoubtable 54-18 since their last title — has resembled those Patriots like this year’s Steelers.

The formula for their success has been eerily similar to New England’s circa 2003-04: ups and downs from an offense committed to the run, a defense that consistently keeps the team in games and forces momentum-changing turnovers in crunch time. A quarterback who always makes the most of a drive when he knows it’s his last. A team that finishes.

I’ve seen it happen too many times this year to be chalked up as coincidental. Against San Diego in Week 11. Versus Dallas in Week 14. In Baltimore the following week. And again in the AFC Championship two Sundays ago.

The defense has guys like Casey Hampton in the trenches, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley on the outside, and Troy Polamalu in center field; guys that have shown time and again that in physical, taxing affairs they will not blink first. And when they hand the ball to their offense late and a drive must be executed, Ben Roethlisberger will lead it with calmness and precision, looking to Hines Ward when the going gets tough.

Simply put, the Steelers never panic. On occasion they don’t come out of the tunnel with their A-game, but their mental resolve is unwavering and their collective patience is a virtue, the reasons why they’ve come from behind multiple times against quality teams.

It was the “sixty minutes mantra” that typified New England during its run, and it’s the same primary tenet that has carried the Steelers to within sixty minutes of a record-breaking sixth Super Bowl title.

Just as the the Panthers and Eagles were exceptional and worthy opponents of the Patriots, so too are the Cardinals for Pittsburgh. One thing Arizona has benefited from this postseason is playing from ahead. Against Atlanta they were Ben is the first to admit he didnt earn that trophy.  up 14-3 and 28-17. They thrashed Carolina. And in the NFC Championship it was 24-6 before the Eagles knew what hit them.

Kurt Warner-to-Larry Fitzgerald is the explanation for all those crooked scores before halftime. But the enabler was actually Edgerrin James, whose rushing outputs — while a modest 203 yards in three games — had opposing defenses thinking “run” in the back of their minds, which was all the old war horse and stud receiver needed.

The Steelers front seven is the best in football and allowed just 73 yards on the ground to Baltimore, the league’s second-ranked rushing offense. Arizona won’t reach 50 yards, meaning Polamalu will not be needed at the line of scrimmage, meaning under no circumstances will he allow any Cardinals receiver to get behind him for a quick-hit score. Arizona will find the end zone a few times but the Pittsburgh D will make them earn it. Nothing will come easy.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will use its rushing attack to dictate the pace of the game. Willie Parker is fresher and healthier than any back the revived Cardinals defense has faced this postseason, and is no stranger to running wild in the Super Bowl (who can forget his electrifying 75-yard touchdown sprint in Super Bowl XL?).

The Steelers will win the game because they can run the ball and stop the run. They’ll win the game because Ken Whisenhunt vs. Dick LeBeau is a wash. They’ll win the game because they don’t get down big. They’ll win the game because Roethlisberger has something to prove. They’ll win the game because they’ll see the Terrible Towels.

Above all, the Pittsburgh Steelers will win Super Bowl XLIII because their defense will not lose it.

Steelers 26 Cardinals 21

Last Week: 1-1

Playoffs: 8-2

What Happened to Carolina? (and Championship Sunday Preview)

Before we jump into championship Sunday let’s set the record straight: Vegas definitely knew something the rest of us didn’t last weekend. About Arizona. And yes, about Carolina.

On a weekend when there were three road underdogs with realistic chances to win outright (that would have been Baltimore, Philadelphia and San Diego…), oddsmakers had Carolina favored by margins unseen since the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl. The Panthers were 10-point favorites, and even more striking, had moneylines ranging up to minus-500 (meaning a bettor had to lay $500 to win $100).

In the encyclopedia of sports wagering those kinds of lines are entrenched in “sure thing” territory.

So what happened? Bettors either parlayed or teased their choice road team (likely the Ravens or Eagles) with Carolina. By halftime in Charlotte they were all royally screwed. And Vegas snickered. Gotcha.

In hindsight, the crux of the matter is that on a weekend rife with varying parlay and teaser potential, Vegas made it impossible for bettors to stay away from the Panthers. Their silent pitch being Go ahead, throw Carolina into that Baltimore/Pittsburgh parlay, it’s just going to pad your winnings if you get through the Ravens-Titans game … or … If you like Philly and Pittsburgh to win outright just tease those Carolina points down and now you have a robust three-teamer, whaddya have to lose?

Everything.

Between Tennessee’s well-documented lack of discipline on the field and the Giants’ glaring inability to generate offense through the air post-Plax, Vegas was aware that Baltimore and Philly — both six-seeds — were more than capable of bumping the odds-on favorites. So they slyly made Carolina the runaway favorite of the weekend (Pittsburgh had the closest comparable moneyline, at minus-260), and the bettors lapped up the Kool-Aid.

The most obvious question now is how could they have known the Cardinals were going to pull one of the great shockers in playoff history? Here are a few theories, some combination of which undoubtedly fueled the deception.

1. We didn’t look closely enough at the first Arizona-Carolina meeting. Much like the playoff game, Arizona dominated Carolina for two-plus quarters in the earlier meeting. Down 17-3, the Panthers got back in the game midway through the third quarter with a six-play, 80-yard drive that included four runs. The game was tightly contested the rest of the way. The Panthers tied it at 17; the Cardinals retook the lead but ultimately fell 27-23. Kurt Warner (35-49, 381 yards, two touchdowns) had his way with the Carolina secondary while the maligned Arizona run defense held the Panthers to 113 yards on the ground, 40 below their season average. Chris Collinsworth — on “Inside the NFL” — was the only talking head to point this stuff out in the week leading up to the playoff game. Nobody listened.

2. We didn’t take into account the fact that Arizona found itself in a familiar position: with nothing to play for in December. The difference being the Cardinals are historically FINISHED by the beginning of December. How odd it must have been to take the field on meaningless Sundays down the stretch with nothing to play for until, umm the franchise’s FIRST HOME PLAYOFF GAME SINCE 1947! With that said, can you really blame them for a 2-2 finish that included a 40-point blowout loss in blizzardy New England? After that game did Kurt Warner give a tear-jerking speech about how nothing matters until the playoffs? Could the simple explanation be that a talented team in a talentless division simply couldn’t summon the necessary motivation with such a momentous game on the horizon? These questions will haunt me always.

3. We didn’t realize that Carolina’s finish was not as impressive at it seemed. The Panthers went 3-1 in December, starting with the “bandwagon” Monday night game against Tampa Bay. You know, the game they ran all over a 9-3 Bucs team on a national stage, and everyone (including yours truly) hopped on the bandwagon, unaware that Tampa was terrible. That was followed by a 30-10 spanking of a Denver team we found out was in the midst of the worst collapse in league history. After that was the flexed Sunday night showdown with the Giants, a contest in which the Panthers blew an 11-point lead and lost in overtime. In their season finale against the Saints they watched a 23-3 lead evaporate and had to scramble in the final minute to pull out a 33-31 victory that preserved the NFC’s second seed. That’s what you call writing on the wall.

4. The Carolina players sipped the same Kool-Aid Vegas was pushing on the gamblers. We’re 8-0 at home, we’re rested. We’ve always gone to at least the NFC Championship Game every other time we’ve been in the playoffs. We should have beaten the Giants a few weeks ago and are a week away from settling that score. THIS IS OUR YEAR. Hook, line and sinker.

So props to Vegas for pulling the curtain over our eyes, for teaching us another harsh lesson only the NFL playoffs can substantiate. It’s time to file that one away and move on.

Here are the championship picks.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia Eagles (11-6-1) at Arizona Cardinals (11-7)

Since we’ve already dissected and possibly gotten to the root of Arizona’s unlikely rise to the cusp of a Super Bowl berth, this pick is easy, right? I’m afraid not. It’s evident that — other than Collinsworth — nobody sufficiently broke down the tape of the first Arizona-Carolina game, which as we are now aware contained valuable clues that could have foreshadowed things to come.

We would be remiss to do the same with the Eagles, particularly given the 48-20 hurting they put on Arizona in November. The naysayers would indicate that was a wholly different Cardinals team, and they may be right. Just consider that 1) Arizona was a week removed from a valiant effort against the then 10-1 Giants, 2) the Eagles were in total disarray and were accordingly booked as underdogs at home, and 3) the game was played on Thanksgiving night. In other words, both teams entered that game with something to prove.

An argument could be made that the Cardinals were actually peaking going into that contest (they were 5-2 over their last seven, losing only to Carolina and the Giants). The Eagles sprung out to 21-0 lead and never looked back. Donovan McNabb threw for 260 yards and four touchdowns and Brian Westbrook scored four times (twice on the ground).

Westbrook’s health was in question throughout the beginning part of the week leading up to Sunday’s title game, but he practiced Friday and is apparently ready to go. The rematch surely won’t be another blowout, but what happened in the first game can’t be discounted.

Each week there has been a trendy pick that ends up backfiring. It was Atlanta in the wild-card round and San Diego in the divisional round. This month the Cardinals have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that not only did they belong in the playoffs, but they were actually a lot better than their record indicated (as opposed to a lot worse…). The coming together of their defense has been the primary reason they’ve won a pair of games this postseason.

The difference this week is the Cardinals D is about to meet its match in the Eagles, who have been playing Super Bowl worthy defense since December. In a game that figures to feature a decent amount of scoring, the NFC title will come down to the unit that can make a big play to stall the opposing offense’s momentum. The nod goes to Philly in that respect, and with it will come a second NFC championship five years.

Eagles 29 Cardinals 23

AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

A common misconception is that when divisional rivals square off for a third time in the playoffs, and one squad has taken the first two, it’s nearly impossible for the favored team to complete the trifecta. While that rationale was validated with the Giants-Cowboys divisional playoff last year, in fact only seven of 18 teams that dropped both regular season games to an opponent came back to win the third in the postseason.

If Baltimore wants to become the eighth, it will need a greater offensive showing than it submitted last week against Tennessee. Led by Joe Flacco, the Ravens offense was bottled up by the Titans defense, gaining only 211 total yards. Baltimore won the game in the same fashion that every team with no business winning a playoff game prevails: by taking care of the ball, committing fewer penalties and forcing huge turnovers.

The Ravens defense, traditionally stout, did a lot of bending against Kerry Collins, giving up 391 total yards. It made up for it by inducing three Tennessee turnovers in the red zone. The Baltimore D knows that if it allows the Steelers to move the ball like it did the Titans, Pittsburgh will turn those possessions into points.

As for the Baltimore offense, it’s all well and good they have only turned the ball over once in the playoffs. Yet it’s no secret that they struggled to move the football against Miami and Tennessee, the NFL’s 15th and seventh-ranked units. Pittsburgh’s defense is on the next level, tops in the league in total defense, pass defense and points allowed.

When the teams last played in December the Ravens could only muster 202 yards of total offense, and failed to reach the end zone. I expect a similar game this time around. The Steelers will be able to run the ball some, opening up their play action down the field. The Ravens offensive game plan will be similar: stay true to the run in the hopes of catching the Steelers in the wrong blitz package so Flacco has a chance of connecting with Derrick Mason on a deep ball.

Both offenses are known to use trickery, but in three combined games these playoffs we have yet to see a flee-flicker or reverse pass. With the top two defenses in the league set to do battle — and both in love with the blitz — expect some schoolyard plays and a handful of field goals. Just don’t expect the Ravens to replicate their performance from last week. Steelers move onto to XLIII.

Steelers 16 Ravens 12

Last Week: 3-1

Playoffs: 7-1

NFL Divisional Preview

A few leftover thoughts from wild-card weekend…

It seems many were underwhelmed with Philadelphia’s win in Minnesota, citing Donovan McNabb’s turnovers and Andy Reid’s play calling. Fact is the Eagles registered a 12-point win on the road in the playoffs and McNabb consistently moved the ball even though the Vikings run defense stifled Brian Westbrook all day. If the Eagles defense — which was championship-caliber in the second half — could have gotten off the field on third downs early in the game the final score would’ve been even more lopsided.

Can the Falcons’ final scoring drive against Arizona officially be renamed Matty Ice’s Drive For The Over? I fear a few folks in Vegas have already beaten me to the punch on that one.

With their 23-17 overtime win over the Colts, the Chargers joined the Patriots as the only team to down Peyton Manning twice in the playoffs. It’s no secret that San Diego has taken a page from New England’s 2003-04 defensive schematic. By masking coverages and blitz packages through constant movement and interchanging parts at the line of scrimmage, the Chargers have been able to flummox Manning to the degree that he loses his rhythm and starts making mistakes. That’s why they’ve had success against Indy.

Speaking of the Chargers, Mike Scifres quite literally kicked them into the second round. Hands down the most remarkable punting performance this decade.

One more San Diego note: It’s unfortunate that LaDainian Tomlinson has been hurt the last two postseasons, but each shot of him in pads on the sidelines, scowling while his team guts out playoff games, further damages his legacy. The fact that the Chargers have won three of their last four in January (only losing to the 17-0 Patriots) only makes it worse. I’ve always liked LT and it’s tough watching his career take this kind of turn.

The Ravens defense is frightening. And this freakin’ man is downright terrifying.

Finally, how the hell did Matt Millen ever get hired to join NBC’s in-studio team last Saturday? Was there a sign hanging outside the Rainbow Room that read: “Seeking: Football Analyst. GM of any Worst Team Ever preferred.”? Did Dick Ebersol lose a bet to Bob Costas? Is the federal unemployment office situated at 32 Rock? I demand an explanation for this. On a related note, Millen REALLY liked the Falcons.

Onto divisional weekend we go.

(4) San Diego Chargers at (2) Pittsburgh Steelers

What a difference a win in January can make. This time last week the Chargers were a fraud, in the playoffs because of Denver’s collapse, not their own strong finish. How perceptions can change after beating a Peyton Manning-led team that hadn’t lost since October. Suddenly the Chargers are a chic pick to pull the upset this weekend against the Steelers. They played Pittsburgh tooth and nail at Heinz Field just seven weeks ago, losing a baseball slugfest, 11-10. It was cold and snowy that day and the warm weather Bolts were game.

The circumstances are different this time around. If the Chargers are to have any hope of opening up their passing game it’s imperative that they get something from their ground attack. Even in a perfect world that’s already the tallest of orders against Pittsburgh’s second-ranked run defense.

San Diego’s running back situation is far from perfect. It doesn’t look like LaDainian Tomlinson will be able to contribute much, if anything at all. He’s calling his groin injury the worst of his career. Darren Sproles compiled a mind-blowing 328 all-purpose yards last week on 34 touches (22 carries, five receptions, four kickoff returns, three punt returns) after averaging about 10 touches a game throughout the season. His 5-foot-6 frame cannot withstand another heavy workload, particularly against one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league. Michael Bennett, who took his first four carries as a Charger last week, becomes a factor back, which is not good news for San Diego.

Stopping the run will also be an issue for the Chargers. They smothered Indy’s rushing attack last weekend, but that was no great feat considering the Colts ranked second-to-last in the NFL at 79.6 yards per game during the regular season. Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore will be on fresh legs and should pose problems for San Diego’s defense. The Steelers will take control of the line of scrimmage early on and grind out the victory against an exhausted Chargers team that has already been playing playoff football for a month.

Steelers 19 Chargers 13

(6) Baltimore Ravens at (1) Tennessee Titans

The last time these teams met in the playoffs was January, 2004. In that game two old divisional rivals waged one of the most physical, skull crunching wars you’d ever want to see. The Titans won 20-17. Fast forward to Week 5 this year, when Tennessee came from behind late and beat the Ravens 13-10 in another intense and grueling affair. This bout will pit the league’s number two defense (Baltimore) against Tennessee’s seventh-ranked unit.

The Ravens and Titans are mirror images of one another. Both rely on run-heavy offenses (Baltimore was fourth in the NFL at 148.5 yards a game on the ground while Tennessee checked in at seventh, averaging 137.4 yards), quarterbacks that manage the game and minimize mistakes (Kerry Collins threw only seven interceptions all year; Joe Flacco tossed 12), and defenses that live for winning time.

These squads are even on paper but the edge must go to Baltimore in this one. Tennessee’s defense is elite but has major question marks. Among them: 1) How will Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch respond after being sidelined since December 7 with hamstring and groin injuries? 2) Will the Titan defenders — specifically Cortland Finnegan — be able to harness the emotion of a high octane game and avoid costly penalties? 3) Can Kerry Collins avoid a repeat of his performance from Week 5, when he was intercepted twice by a pressuring and ball-hawking Ravens D?

There are simply no concerns for the Ravens defense, which is fresh off undressing a Dolphins offense that had tied an NFL record for fewest turnovers (13) in a 16-game season. Baltimore’s fast, ferocious and playmaking defense forced the Fins into five giveaways. Ed Reed, who picked Chad Pennington twice, has reinvented the strong safety position over the last seven games, totaling 10 interceptions and two touchdowns.

The Ravens don’t give up more than three long drives in any game and they make it nearly impossible to get into the end zone from short yardage. Flacco exhibited he can take care of the ball in a hostile environment in January. Tennessee is clearly the team with the most to prove, given its 3-3 finish after a 10-0 start. Baltimore will jump out to a slim lead by the second quarter and protect it for the remainder of the game. Collins will make a costly mistake that ices it and sends Baltimore back to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since its Super Bowl season of 2000.

Ravens 16 Titans 13

(4) Arizona Cardinals at (2) Carolina Panthers

Like every other divisional game this weekend, Cardinals-Panthers is a rematch from earlier in the year. Carolina took the first one, 27-23, in a contest that unofficially marked the coming out party for DeAngelo Williams. He rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, the first of four consecutive 100-yard performances that rocketed him into the discussion of best back in the NFL. Arizona’s run defense was middle of the pack this year and will no doubt have difficulty containing Williams and his backfield mate, Jonathan Stewart. The two combined for 28 touchdowns in the regular season.

The Panthers defense is a pressuring unit, led by Julius Peppers (14.5 sacks). Kurt Warner is not adept at dealing with strong pass rushes, and if Arizona is going to keep pace with Carolina it must be through the air. Anquan Boldin has an injured hamstring, which he aggravated on his touchdown catch against Atlanta in the wild-card game. Warner needs his full arsenal as well as consistent pass protection. Otherwise he risks turning the ball over in bunches.

The fact that Carolina was the league’s only undefeated team at home this year makes this game fairly easy to call. Other than the Bears (who lost 20-17 in Carolina in Week 2), the Cardinals are the closest any team has come to beating the Panthers in Charlotte. Don’t put too much stock in that regular season game. Carolina is 8-0 at home and 3-0 in divisional games overall. Those records will remain unblemished come Saturday night.

Panthers 28 Cardinals 17

(6) Philadelphia Eagles at (1) New York Giants

Forget rematches. Every time these teams meet it’s a rematch. It’s also usually a grudge match, and sometimes, like Sunday’s divisional showdown, a rubber match. The teams split two meetings this year, with each winning on the other’s home field. This will be the second time in three years that they clash in a rubber match for the right to move on (the Eagles beat the Giants in a 2006 wild-card game, 23-20).

The Eagles are drawing comparisons to the Giants of a year ago, and the similarities are there. Like last year’s Giants, the Eagles were written off amid mediocrity and turmoil only to receive new life in Week 17 and parlay it into a road win in the the wild-card round. And like the Giants were forced to do in Dallas, Philly will travel into the house of the NFC’s top seed in a game it’s being given little chance to win. The G-Men historically proved that going on the road with house money is a dangerous proposition for an opponent that may have more talent but also more expectation. It’s even more dangerous when it’s a divisional matchup and the teams know each other so well that the game can very well hinge on state of mind.

Regardless of what you read, the champs aren’t anywhere close to at peace with their present situation. They killed teams en route an 11-1 start. Then their hammer, Brandon Jacobs, became hobbled and their big play weapon, Plaxico Burress, shot himself and was dismissed from the team. Yet they are still expected and favored to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

On the other hand you have the Eagles, who came within a single stitch of having not just their season, but an entire decade torn apart at the seams. After turning the ball over four times against the Ravens and getting benched, Donovan McNabb was ready to sever his longstanding contentious relationship with the city of Philadelphia, and they in turn were preparing for the final breakup. It still hasn’t come. Now, in a notoriously pessimistic city that is nursing a World Series title, the skies are sunny and only good can come from what was a lost football season.

Success in January requires a union of good karma and favorable matchups. The Eagles have the karma and they also have the matchups. Brian Westbrook is a notorious Giant-killer. Since 2006, the teams have played seven times and New York has won four. In the six games Westbrook participated in he averaged 164 total yards and found the end zone seven times. It comes down to ball security for Philly’s versatile back. When Westbrook didn’t turn the ball over the Eagles were 3-1 and when he lost a fumble they were 0-2. Every time he touches the ball it’s a possible mismatch for the Giants defense.

The last time the Eagles played the Giants in Week 14 Westbrook ran wild, totaling 203 total yards and two touchdowns. The final score read 20-14 but the game wasn’t that close. A blocked field goal at the end of the half that should have given the Eagles a 13-0 lead turned into a touchdown return for the Giants and a 10-point swing. Philly held New York to 88 yards on the ground and frustrated Eli Manning, who was just 13-for-27 with 123 yards.

It’s no coincidence that Burress was absent from that game. One of Manning’s greatest strengths has always been his ability to convert long third downs in the face of a fierce pass rush. He’s excellent at taking quick and calm three or four step drops with the heat coming and unloading the ball. Naturally it helped to have one of the tallest and most physical receivers in the game hauling in passes on the other end in single coverage. Since Eli no longer has that threat at his disposal it’s incumbent on the Giants to establish their running game. The Eagles front seven proved in December against New York and again last week in Minnesota that they are up to the task of stopping the run.

With no Plax to worry about, Jim Johnson won’t hesitate to bring lots of pressure from many different looks and angles. This game will come down to Manning vs. the Eagles secondary. Time and again throughout his career Eli has made a habit of tossing up a duck when he feels the heat. He did just that in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, except somehow the ball, along with history, slipped through the hands of Asante Samuel. It’s fair to say Samuel has some unfinished business with Manning. That vendetta will contribute to Philly taking down the champs.

Eagles 20 Giants 17

Wild-Card Picks: 4-0

NFL Wild-Card Preview and Playoff Picks

As we draw closer to the start of the 2008 NFL playoffs, two facts are evident: 1) there is no clear Super Bowl favorite, 2) four road favorites in the wild-card round is unprecedented.

In other words, buckle up. The wackiest and most unpredictable regular season this decade is about to enter do-or-die mode, and nobody knows how it’s all gonna go down.

Everything is so up in the air that even the big boys out west are tentative. Considering every road team is between a one and three point favorite, Vegas sportsbooks — as opposed to last year with the Patriots — have backed off and are allowing the bettors to determine the prevailing sentiment when it comes to picking outright winners. Common logic indicates that home teams have a marked advantage in an elimination format, yet reality says the four best teams taking the field this weekend are doing so on the road.

The bettors have generally agreed. With the exception of the Colts, each road team has gained steam throughout the week (Philly opened at a one-point underdog and is currently a three-point favorite; Baltimore rose from 2.5 to 3.5 point favorites; Atlanta from 1.5 to 2), meaning money has been laid heavier on the road teams. Vegas, in its effort to balance the betting, has responded by swelling the lines even more in favor of the away teams.

That — as any oddsmaker will allow — is problematic, because home field still absolutely means something in the playoffs. You can be assured that at least one of the home ‘dogs advances to divisional weekend. So which squad will protect its turf?

(6) Philadelphia Eagles at (3) Minnesota Vikings

Tavaris Jackson can’t handle the blitz and Jim Johnson is one of the best blitzing defensive coordinators in the league. That’s what you call a game-changing mismatch. As well as Jackson has performed since regaining his job (8 touchdowns, one interception), he’ll have to be even better if the Vikings are to stand a chance. And that’s assuming Minnesota can establish Adrian Peterson early and take some heat off its quarterback. The numbers say Minnesota’s fifth-ranked rushing offense and Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked rushing defense will offset one another. If that’s the case this game could get ugly.

Of course AP is capable of breaking off a huge run on any given carry. However, if the Eagles front seven come out and stuff him early that will open the floodgates for Johnson to bring the noise. Peterson should be able to get some decent yardage, which will keep the Eagles defense (relatively) at bay. The x-factor is Brian Westbrook. If he can run on Minnesota’s stout trench defense, Philly will roll.

The Vikings will come out inspired by a boisterous Metrodome crowd enjoying its first playoff game since 2000, but a healthy dose of Westbrook and too much pressure from Johnson’s defense will end Minnesota’s season at home.

Eagles 27 Vikings 16

(5) Atlanta Falcons at (4) Arizona Cardinals

No one is impressed with the way the Cardinals played down the stretch, highlighted by no-shows at home against Minnesota and in New England. Conversely, the Falcons — behind Matt Ryan and Michael Turner — continued to open eyes right through Week 17. Going into Minnesota on Dec. 21 and knocking off the playoff-hungry Vikings was a quality showing and helped Atlanta shed the moniker of “suspect road team”. However, it must be pointed out that Ryan was just 13-for-24 with 134 yards and a touchdown in that game. Turner finished with a decent day’s work: 19 carries, 70 yards, one touchdown. It was really the Vikings who beat themselves, losing four fumbles.

The Cardinals run defense is vastly inferior to the Vikings, but they do have playmakers in the secondary (notably safety Adrian Wilson). Let’s not kid ourselves. This game will be an air-it-out affair. Led by Kurt Warner, Arizona boasts the best passing attack of any playoff team. All three starting wideouts for the Cardinals caught at least 77 balls and logged over 1,000 yards receiving. Atlanta’s Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are a comparable duo and will give Arizona’s secondary problems with their size and aggressiveness. But will Ryan be able to get the ball to them with the same consistency as Warner will to his trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston?

Ryan, who won three of four games in December, averaged just 200 yards passing and tossed only three touchdowns in that span. He’ll need to combine with Turner for 400-plus yards and four touchdowns if the Falcons are going to keep up with Warner, who thrives when he has time to sit back in the pocket and pick apart defenses. Arizona was 6-2 at home and weather is not an issue. Cards move on.

Cardinals 31 Falcons 27

(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Miami Dolphins

Of all the wild-card matchups, this is the one where home field matters the least. Baltimore’s defense relishes going on the road and silencing opposing crowds. They’ve already done it to the Dolphins once this season, taking the first big bite out of the Wildcat en route to a 27-13 Week 7 victory in Miami.

Until the Fins brought back the old single wing and delved deep into the trick-playbook this year, it was traditionally held that NFL teams relying on misdirection plays and flee-flickers as principle means of generating offense would ultimately fail. Sure enough, after gathering enough tape of the formation and the roots of its successes, defenses started to adjust and minimize the damage. Unfortunately for Miami, it was most likely the tape of the Baltimore game that furnished opposing coordinators with a blueprint for stopping the Wildcat. The simple fact is Miami’s offense isn’t good enough to succeed without the Wildcat.

Another adage that always holds true in the playoffs: running the ball and stopping the run leads to wins. Wildcat formations aside, Baltimore’s running game (fourth the league) and rushing defense (third in the league) will enable the Ravens to control both sides of the line of scrimmage. In order to beat the Ravens you must throw deep on them, and Chad Pennington lacks the arm and the true home run threat to do so. Baltimore stuffs the Dolphins and advances.

Ravens 20 Dolphins 10

(5) Indianapolis Colts at (4) San Diego Chargers

12 wins was supposed to get the Colts a first round bye. 8 wins was supposed to get the Chargers a date on their couches for the playoffs. Yet here we are, on the brink of an unlikely wild-card meeting between two teams that have developed quite the rivalry over the last couple years. NFL insiders often note how the postseason doesn’t really begin until divisional weekend. Don’t let the disparity in records deceive you; this will be the game of the weekend, a contest that will become the bar-setter for every game to come.

The case for the Colts is cut and dry. Winners of nine straight, they are the league’s hottest team entering the postseason. Peyton Manning just collected his third piece of MVP hardware, and this may have been his best job yet considering the pieces around him. Tony Dungy is an exceptional coach with a ring. Done and done, right? Not so fast. The Chargers are peaking at the right time for the second year in a row. Their offense has averaged over 37 points per game during a four-game winning streak to close the season. The defense allowed just 18.5 points per game since Ron Rivera was inserted in place of Ted Cottrell. And bear in mind that if Jake Delhomme doesn’t complete a miraculous touchdown pass with no time on the clock in Week 1 and Ed Hochuli doesn’t blow the call vs. Denver in Week 2, the Chargers are a much more appealing 10-6.

Because both offenses are operating at such high levels and both defenses remain mediocre at best, clock management and red zone offense will be focal points in this game. Three and outs will be scarce. Sustained drives will be common. The longer Manning can keep the ball away from Phillip Rivers the better, and vice versa. That means establishing Joseph Addai and LaDainian Tomlinson will be key. The early edge goes to LT, who looked positively reinvigorated last week against Denver, finding the end zone three times and once again showing off his singular cutback ability. A groin strain isn’t expected to keep him out.

When the teams met in Week 12, Rivers led a game-tying drive late. Norv Turner made the grave mistake of calling a timeout on third down, which contributed to Manning getting the ball back with 90 seconds remaining. He navigated the Colts into field goal range and Adam Vinatieri booted a 51-yarder to win the game. The rematch is so tough to call because the game will be tight in the fourth quarter. This side of Tom Brady, Manning is the best in the business at leading game-winning drives. But San Diego ranks first in the league with a 47.5 percent scoring rate on drives after the opposition has scored. Basically the quarterback who has the ball in his hands last will win the game.

Given how the season began and ended for the Chargers, it seems like the football gods are with them. Rivers will lead San Diego from behind on the final drive and end Manning’s season for the second straight year.

Chargers 26 Colts 24

Rest of Playoff Picks

Divisional Round

(2) Pittsburgh over (4) San Diego

(6) Baltimore over (1) Tennessee

(6) Philadelphia over (1) NY Giants

(2) Carolina over (4) Arizona

AFC Championship

(2) Pittsburgh over (6) Baltimore

NFC Championship

(2) Carolina over (6) Philadelphia

Super Bowl XLIII

Pittsburgh over Carolina

Final NFL Power Poll

What a season. The Falcons and Dolphins rose from the ashes to win 11 games a piece and make the playoffs.

11 wins for the Patriots wasn’t good enough to get in. New England became the first team to miss the tournament with an 11-5 record since the league expanded the playoff format to 12 teams in 1990.

The Chargers were 4-8 and three games behind Denver with four to play and somehow managed to steal the AFC West at 8-8.

The Jets and Cowboys suffered monumental collapses while the Ravens and Eagles experienced unexpected resurgences.

And let’s not forget about the Giants, who endured more than a helping of drama. In the final edition of the 2008 power poll, it’s the champs who again reign supreme.

1. New York Giants (12-4) There are concerns for the Giants going into the playoffs — notably the health of Brandon Jacobs and the ultimate effect Plaxico Burress’ absence will have on the passing game — but the road to Tampa goes through the Meadowlands in the NFC. The champs defended their crown admirably through a difficult regular season.

2. Tennessee Titans (13-3) Each of the other five AFC playoff teams finished stronger than the Titans over the last six weeks. However, despite going just 3-3 down the stretch, Tennessee solidified its status as the team to beat in the AFC with an emphatic 31-14 win over Pittsburgh in Week 16.

3. Carolina Panthers (12-4) The Panthers had a golden opportunity to steal home field from the Giants in Week 16 but John Kasay couldn’t connect on a 50-yard field goal at the end of regulation. Carolina is a seasoned and balanced team that has advanced to at least the NFC Championship Game in each of its three previous playoff appearances. Watch out for the Cats.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) The Steelers won six of their last seven, with the one loss coming in Tennessee on Dec. 21. After that game a few choice Titans saw fit to stomp on a Terrible Towel. It would be an understatement to say the Steelers took exception to that display and will look to exact some revenge should the teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game.

5. Indianapolis Colts (12-4) At 3-4, the Colts season was on the line in Week 9 against New England. They rallied to beat the Patriots and haven’t looked back since, steamrolling their way to nine straight wins to close out the 2008 campaign. Wild-card teams winning it all has become the trend recently (Pittsburgh in 2005 and the Giants in 2007). Indy fits the mold.

6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) The Ravens have been smashing teams lately. A Week 15 meltdown vs. the Steelers is the only blemish on their record since mid-November. The Baltimore defense turned back the clock this year and Joe Flacco performed well for a rookie. A deep playoff run may be in the cards.

7. Miami Dolphins (11-5) By winning their last five games the Dolphins tied the ’99 Colts for the greatest turnaround in NFL history. Miami went from 1-15 a year ago to 11-5 and division champions, a remarkable feat. That it concluded with Chad Pennington returning to beat the team that jettisoned him was fitting.

8. New England Patriots (11-5) It could be argued that what Bill Belichick, Matt Cassel and the rest of the Patriots coaching staff and players accomplished this year was comparable to the 16-0 season of a year ago. Either way, there’s no disputing that this team deserved to be in the playoffs.

9. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) Matt Ryan deserves to finish in the top-three of the MVP voting after the resurgence he led in Atlanta. At this time last year the Falcons were reeling from the incarceration of their iconic quarterback and the unseemly departure of their coach. Now they’re back in the playoffs with a rookie quarterback leading the way. Wow.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) After tying the Bengals and getting tuned up by the Ravens, the Eagles were left for dead at 5-5-1. Heck, entering Week 17 Las Vegas still had them at 75/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Then down went Tampa Bay. Down went Chicago. The Eagles did their part, dismantling Dallas to slip into the playoffs via the trap door. Now those are odds are 13/1. That must be one of the most drastic 24-hour shifts in the history of Vegas.

Week 17 Picks: 13-3

Overall: 166-88-1

Coming Friday: A comprehensive look at all four wild-card games and complete playoff picks.

Final NFL Playoff Picture and Week 16 Picks

You can call the NFL schedule makers prophetic or merely lucky, but they got it right this year. Week 16 of the 2008 slate features three games of great importance — Steelers-Titans, Panthers-Giants and Ravens-Cowboys. Each will go a long way towards sewing up the playoff picture, and all are shaping up to be December classics.

Let’s begin with the Carolina-New York game. Both teams have identical 11-3 records, so the winner will take the top overall seed and home field throughout the NFC playoffs. While they have gone in divergent directions the last two weeks — Carolina has mowed down the Bucs and Broncos; the Giants have dropped a pair to the Eagles and Cowboys — this game is actually more important to the Panthers. They have proven to be unbeatable at home this season (8-0) but are a pedestrian 3-3 on the road. If they can’t go into the Meadowlands and knock off the banged-up Giants (Brandon Jacobs should play, but will be limited) Sunday night, it’s highly unlikely they’ll do it next month with a Super Bowl on the line against a presumably healthier New York team. The defending champs, on the other hand, proved last year — in Dallas and Green Bay among other places — that they can win on the road in the playoffs. There’s a good chance that the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLIII.

Now to the AFC, where the top two teams are also meeting in what could be a prelude to the AFC championship. At 12-2, the Titans need only a win over the Steelers (11-3) to ensure home field throughout the playoffs. However, after losing two of the last four on the heels of a 10-0 start, Tennessee must win this game to avoid a tidal wave of skepticism about its toughness and character. The game will be played in Nashville, but the Titans will be without their two main men on defense, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. That very much evens the playing field. The Steelers, meanwhile, are flat out rolling. They’ve turned fourth quarter deficits — against Dallas and Baltimore — into victories the last two weeks and are playing with a chip on their shoulder. They simply don’t believe the opposition can butt heads with them for sixty minutes. A win over Tennessee and Pittsburgh effectively wraps up the No. 1 seed (it would need just a win over the Browns or a Titans loss to the Colts in Week 17 to clinch).

As for the Ravens-Cowboys contest, there really can’t be a more exciting inter-conference game at this time of the year. Both teams currently control their own destinies for one of the two respective wild cards in their conference. Whichever team wins will essentially be guaranteed a playoff berth, while the loser will be forced into a must-win then scoreboard-watch situation next week. The Ravens (9-5) are still livid at what they believed to be an erroneous touchdown call that cost them the game vs. Pittsburgh last week, and will look to take it out on Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas (9-5) has begun to put it all together of late. The defense is playing as well as any unit in the league, having recorded 20 sacks over the last three games. Of all the wild card hopefuls, the Cowboys are undoubtedly the scariest.

What’s intriguing about the Baltimore-Dallas game is the ripple effect it will have on the wild card races. If the Cowboys lose Saturday night, both the Bucs (9-5) and Falcons (9-5) will know they control their playoff fates before they even take the field on Sunday. That can certainly be an advantage. If the Ravens come up short, the door opens for an AFC East team, likely New England. With the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins all tied at 9-5, a Baltimore loss means two of them should get in. Since the Patriots hold no tiebreakers and the Jets and Dolphins play each other in Week 17, New England would automatically control its own destiny for the final wild card (because only one of the Jets and Dolphins can finish 11-5). That would set the Patriots up for a divisional game — either in New York or Miami — on wild card weekend (because the AFC East winner will be the No. 3 seed). Of course, if the Jets or Dolphins stumble this weekend, a sixth consecutive AFC East title for the Patriots becomes a very real possibility. Fascinating stuff.

Here are the Week 16 picks (home teams in CAPS)

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE

DALLAS over Baltimore

CLEVELAND over Cincinnati

New Orleans over DETROIT

Pittsburgh over TENNESSEE

Miami over KANSAS CITY

San Francisco over ST. LOUIS

NEW ENGLAND over Arizona

TAMPA BAY over San Diego

NY Jets over SEATTLE

Houston over OAKLAND

DENVER over Buffalo

Philadelphia over WASHINGTON

MINNESOTA over Atlanta

Carolina over NY GIANTS

CHICAGO over Green Bay

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 147-75-1

Week 15 Power Poll and Picks

With the Giants falling, the Panthers and Steelers rising, and Tennessee leading us to believe the Jets game was an aberration, there is a logjam of championship-caliber teams at the top of the poll. Check it out.

1. Tennessee Titans (12-1) The Titans have responded well since the Jets disaster, pounding the Lions and Browns by a combined 75-19. A Week 16 bout with the Steelers could be a preview of the AFC Championship if the seeds hold true.

2. New York Giants (11-2) Plaxico Burress aside, the G-Men ran into a desperate Eagles team last Sunday. At this time of the year the more desperate team tends to prevail. Up next for the champs? The desperate Cowboys in Dallas.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) The statistics say the ’08 Steelers boast a historic defense. Those who doubted the numbers were surely silenced after watching the Pittsburgh D rise up and stun the Cowboys last week.

4. Carolina Panthers (10-3) The Panthers ran all over the Bucs on Monday night. Now they’re in position to run the Giants off course and steal home field throughout the playoffs. The two heavyweights meet on Dec. 21 in Carolina.

5. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) At one point the Colts were 3-4. Seems about time to start talking about “that team” nobody wants to face in January.

6. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) The Ravens need 11 wins to be assured of a playoff spot. That means a split against the Steelers and Cowboys is essential over the next two weeks. Easier said than done.

7. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) Just a devastating collapse in Pittsburgh last week. That said, Atlanta’s loss swung the wild card tiebreaker in the Cowboys’ favor. The remaining schedule (NYG, BAL, at PHI) may be treacherous, but Dallas now controls its own playoff destiny.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) It’s December and we’re still waiting for the Bucs to present some proof that they won’t be one and done in the postseason. The “top-notch defense” argument suddenly holds less water after the Carolina game.

9. New England Patriots (8-5) Junior Seau played 28 snaps in the Patriots’ comeback win in Seattle last week. Five days prior to that he was surfing the Pacific. Need you hear any more about the adaptability and resiliency of New England?

10. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1) The final score may have read 20-14, but the Eagles thrashed the Giants in their house. Suffice to say it was a timely and resonant first division win for McNabb and company.

Now for the Week 15 picks (home teams in CAPS)

CHICAGO over New Orleans

Washington over CINCINNATI

ATLANTA over Tampa Bay

Seattle over ST. LOUIS

MIAMI over San Francisco

NY JETS over Buffalo

INDIANAPOLIS over Detroit

JACKSONVILLE over Green Bay

San Diego over KANSAS CITY

ARIZONA over Minnesota

Tennessee over HOUSTON

Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE

CAROLINA over Denver

DALLAS over NY Giants

New England over OAKLAND

PHILADELPHIA over CLEVELAND

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 134-72-1

NFL Playoff Picture and Week 14 Picks

Usually at this point in this season — 12 games down and four to go for each team — most division races are heating up. Not this year.

In the NFC, the Giants have home-field throughout the playoffs secured while the Cardinals are already preparing for a home game in the first round, courtesy of the NFC West title they’re about to earn. In the South, to the winner of Monday night’s showdown between the Bucs and Panthers will go both the division crown and the second bye in the conference. The only divisional murkiness lies in the North, where the Vikings — currently 7-5 with a one-game lead over the Bears — will have to contend with a potentially bumpy schedule (at DET, at ARI, ATL, NYG) as well as the imminent suspensions of their two cogs on the defensive line, Kevin and Pat Williams (although the suspensions are presently on hold as the players union has filed suit to block them).

The divisional picture is equally clear in the AFC, where the Titans will take the AFC South and the top seed in the postseason. Out west, the Broncos have a three-game advantage over San Diego and a manageable final slate (KC, at CAR, BUF, at SD). Denver will be the fourth seed and host a wild card game. The Jets are lined up to wrestle the AFC East away from the Patriots for the first time since 2002. They could conceivably run the table (at SF, BUF, at SEA, MIA) and steal the second bye from Pittsburgh. While the Steelers are the most complete team in the conference, they must deal with unquestionably the most difficult final four games (DAL, at BAL, at TEN, CLE) of any AFC contender.

In essence, the entire divisional landscape of the league can be summed up in three questions. 1) Will Carolina avenge a 27-3 loss to Tampa Bay and win the NFC South? 2) Can Minnesota evade the obstacles and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2004? 3) Is Pittsburgh capable of gaining the AFC’s second bye in spite of a brutal December schedule? We’ll see.

Right now, it’s the wild card races in both conferences that have the most moving parts. In the NFC, there are technically five teams battling for the two berths. However, the loser of the Tampa Bay-Carolina game will be 9-4 and virtually guaranteed a wild card, barring a total collapse. That means Dallas (8-4), Atlanta (8-4), Washington (7-5) and Philadelphia (6-5-1) will have to duke it out for the last spot. As for the AFC, there are four teams for two berths. Again, though, that is misleading, as the Colts are 8-4, riding a five-game winning streak and looking at the easiest final month (CIN, DET, at JAX, TEN) of all the contenders. Indy is a minimum 11-win team. Which leaves Baltimore (8-4), New England (7-5) and Miami (7-5) vying for the sixth and final spot.

So of those seven squads, which two are most likely to be playing football in January? Let’s take a closer look, within the context of each conference.

NFC

Dallas Cowboys: 8-4 (at PIT, NYG, BAL, at PHI)

It’s painful to merely look at the Cowboys’ December schedule. They will clash with, in succession, the league’s first, third, second and seventh ranked defenses. All have ferocious, unrelenting pass rushes and physical secondaries that can challenge the Dallas passing attack. They can also all stop the run. That said, the Cowboys appear to be peaking and getting healthy at the right time, which means they’re capable of winning any of these games. A 2-2 split is most probable, which means the Giants and Eagles games are especially critical if a 10-6 Cowboys team is to have any tiebreakers in its favor (most of the time wild card tiebreakers come down to conference record).

Atlanta Falcons: 8-4 (at NO, TB, at MIN, STL)

The next two weeks are crucial for the Falcons. If they can find a way to win in New Orleans and beat Tampa Bay at home, they’ll be in the drivers seat hitting the home stretch (as Dallas will be hard pressed to knock off the Steelers and Giants on consecutive Sundays). Behind the continued and striking improvement of rookie Matt Ryan, the Falcons have notched four of the last five, including a couple of tough divisional games and a victory in San Diego last week. As of now Atlanta is the team that most readily controls its own destiny.

Washington Redskins: 7-5 (at BAL, at CIN, PHI, at SF)

No team wants to finish with three out of the last four on the road, but at this point that’s far from Washington’s primary concern. The Redskins are 1-3 in their last four contests, mainly because they haven’t been able to put points on the board — scoring a total of 43 points during the lull. Clinton Portis has been playing hurt, and it’s shown, as he’s rung up just one 100-yard game in that stretch after recording five in a row. Jason Campbell’s receivers have not helped him by any measure, dropping countless passes in big spots. Anything short of a huge showing on Sunday night in Baltimore and Washington’s drive to return to the playoffs will stall out.

Philadelphia Eagles: 6-5-1 (at NYG, CLE, at WAS, DAL)

Impressive as he was coming back with an elite performance on Thanksgiving after being benched the week before, Donovan McNabb still has a mighty task ahead of him. Simply put, a loss to the Giants this week effectively kills Philly’s season. That’s what happens when you tie the Bengals. On the bright side, with the bizarre Plaxico Burress/Antonio Pierce incident coming to a head as this piece goes to print, maybe the Eagles are drawing the champs at the right time. Regardless, it’s simple. A win in the Meadowlands and Philly is alive and kicking.

AFC

Baltimore Ravens: 8-4 (WAS, PIT, at DAL, JAX)

Not what you would classify a friendly slate of games for the Ravens, but they have the benefit of playing three of them at home, where they are 4-1. Since getting pasted by the Giants in Week 11, Baltimore has responded with two resounding victories over the Eagles and Bengals. Considering the opponents they’ll have to face this month, a split of their last four games is the most likely scenario for the Ravens. Like Dallas, the pressure will be on Baltimore in their two remaining conference games, as three of their four losses have come against AFC teams. Even at 10-6, if the Ravens end up with five conferences losses they’ll probably be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

New England Patriots: 7-5 (at SEA, at OAK, ARI, at BUF)

With a 5-5 record in the AFC, the Patriots are pretty much assured of having no tiebreakers going in their favor should it come down to that. Which would indicate New England has to run the table if it wants to be competing for a Super Bowl for the sixth straight year. Given the Patriots’ track record of playing better as the games gain importance and the weather becomes inclement (they’re a cumulative 27-5 in the month of December since 2001), it’s plausible that New England wins out. They will be favored in every game left on the schedule, meaning a lack of preparation or an off-day is all that stands between them and 11 wins.

Miami Dolphins: 7-5 (at BUF, SF, at KC, at NYJ)

You gotta hand it to the Dolphins. They were routed by the Patriots in a blood match and clearly felt the effects well into last Sunday’s game against the Rams. But they held on and are now set up to be heading into the final week at 10-5 for a divisional clash with the Jets. It’s questionable whether they’ll be able to seal the deal and get back to the postseason for the first time in eight years, but don’t forget this was a team that still hadn’t even won a game at this juncture of the season last year.

Now, on to the Week 14 picks (home teams in CAPS)

SAN DIEGO over Oakland

CHICAGO over Jacksonville

Minnesota over DETROIT

TENNESSEE over Cleveland

GREEN BAY over Houston

NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta

INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati

DENVER over Kansas City

NY GIANTS over Philadelphia

NY Jets over SAN FRANCISCO

Miami over BUFFALO

ARIZONA over St. Louis

New England over SEATTLE

PITTSBURGH over Dallas

BALTIMORE over Washington

CAROLINA over Tampa Bay

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 121-69-1

Week 13 Power Poll and Picks

Everyone prepare yourselves. The first seismic shakeup in the power poll has occurred. This comes on the heels of a wild Week 12 that included the unbeaten Titans getting rocked by the Jets, continued resurgences in Dallas and Indianapolis, and a return of the Patriot air assault. The result? A marked shift in the balance of power from the NFC back to the AFC.

1. New York Giants (10-1) Order is restored. The G-Men, who have plowed through a murderous stretch (at PIT, DAL, at PHI, BAL, at ARI) without a single misstep, are now officially the team to beat. (As if they weren’t already.)

2. New York Jets (8-3) When a team rips off five consecutive wins — the latter two coming in New England and in Tennessee — and happens to share a city with the champs, it’s not New York hyperbole to start talking about the prospects of an all-Gotham Super Bowl.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) Suddenly there’s a power vacuum in the AFC. It’s fitting then that a trek to Foxborough is all that stands in the way of the Steelers and their quest to return to the top of the mountain. A win over the Patriots and the road to Super Bowl XLIII effectively goes through Pittsburgh.

4. Tennessee Titans (10-1) After nearly two months on top of the poll the Titans were manhandled by the Jets, raising doubts about their perceived toughness. How they respond these next few weeks will go a long way towards assessing their chances come January.

5. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) Injuries, sideshows and turmoil aside, the Cowboys are 6-2 when Tony Romo is their starting quarterback. Since Romo’s return, T.O. has awakened and the defense has been ferocious. Beware of the ‘Boys.

6. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) In a span of four weeks the Colts have defeated the Patriots, Steelers and Chargers. Taking into consideration an extremely soft schedule down the stretch (at CLE, CIN, DET, at JAX, TEN), you can pencil them in for one of the AFC’s two wildcard berths. Then you can trace over it with a sharpie.

7. New England Patriots (7-4) Another example of how the Patriots set and dead trends in the NFL: After the Dolphins smoked New England in Week 3, everyone wanted a piece of the Wildcat. Now? Not so much.

8. Carolina Panthers (8-3) First their defense struggled to contain the Lions at home. Then it literally stood and watched the Falcons put up four touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a 45-28 loss. Not a good direction to be heading in as the holidays approach.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) If a three-game win streak includes coming back from 21 and 17 down vs. the Chiefs and Lions, respectively, it doesn’t deserve to be called a win streak. A “three-game-avoided-humiliation streak” is more apt.

10. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) The Cardinals exhibited Sunday that they can compete with the best. Now is the time to use the end of the season to improve sufficiently enough to take the next step in the playoffs.

Here are the Week 13 picks (home teams in CAPS)

Tennessee over DETROIT

DALLAS over Seattle

Arizona over PHILADELPHIA

BUFFALO over San Francisco

Baltimore over CINCINNATI

Indianapolis over CLEVELAND

GREEN BAY over Carolina

Miami over ST. LOUIS

TAMPA BAY over New Orleans

WASHINGTON over NY Giants

SAN DIEGO over Atlanta

NEW ENGLAND over Pittsburgh

NY JETS over Denver

OAKLAND over Kansas City

MINNESOTA over Chicago

HOUSTON over Jacksonville

Last Week: 10-5

Overall: 113-61-1

BG’s Showtime Pitch and Week 12 Picks

Anyone who doesn’t pay for Showtime is sleeping on — hands down — the best football show out there: Inside the NFL. Each week James Brown hosts (and mediates) a forum of Phil Simms, Chris Collinsworth and the inimitable Warren Sapp. The show, formerly of HBO, accomplishes everything NFL fans are looking for on a program. It’s insightful, edgy and laugh-out-loud funny.

You see, football fans are quite simple in their needs. If you make them laugh, succinctly interpret the game and say a few borderline inappropriate things, they will be happy. Which is precisely why it baffles me that so few are tuning into JB, Phil, Chris and Warren. Oh right, the whole Showtime thing. Well here’s my pitch to every football enthusiast out there to upgrade their cable to the silver package for the next couple of months. (Showtime, you can thank me later.)

Seriously though, these four are the perfect pigskin quartet. Simms and Collinsworth understand and can relate the game as well as anyone in the business. Simms, a former quarterback, is adept at giving us the perspective of the field general. Collinsworth, who spends inordinate amounts of time in the tape room, is always pointing out things the average fan simply isn’t equipped to notice. The two also happen to loathe one another, and that mutual contempt fuels their frequently divergent opinions.

Sapp, meanwhile, is a one-of-a-kind personality. His knowledge — which equates to raw intelligence from the trenches — is invaluable considering the voice of the lineman is generally the least heard (save for Fox’s Tony Siragusa and his live reports from the end zone) but arguably the most vital to grasping the game. With Warren, the mood is always light because he’s in a perpetual state of giddiness and is unrelenting in his shameless pleas for votes on Dancing With The Stars (DWTS has been a great running subplot on the show).

Then there’s Brown, the mercenary moderator of NFL roundtables. He was the point man on Fox for over a decade, feeding the likes of Terry Bradshaw, before jumping ship to CBS in 2006, where he now tosses to Shannon Sharpe. I tell you, the man has seen it all.

JB’s true genius is always revealed when the feuds between Simms and Collinsworth reach a boiling point, at which time he’ll cut in with some sarcastic patchwork comment (“These guys really do get along well off-camera”) just as they’re about to start giving each other backhanders. He’ll then seamlessly segway to Sapp for his take on the topic that previously had both white fellas sporting loony ear-to-ear grins as they traded personal insults.

The big fella always has something to say, and it’s often so outlandish that viewers quickly forget that Simms and Collinsworth are arm wrestling off-camera. A few highlights: His reaction to hearing about ex-teammate Keyshawn Johnson’s pending interior design show on A&E (“Keyshawn, I knew you were a [rhymes with snitch]”); his response after Ray Lewis told him the Ravens were playing the pass against the Giants last week (“I dropped the phone, I dropped the phone”); and most recently, his take on Donovan McNabb not knowing there are ties in the NFL (“When I heard him say it I almost passed out”). It should be noted that Sapp has since apologized to Johnson for stepping out of line, but in my opinion that’s just another reason to watch the show.

What’s most important — and what ultimately makes the show a success — is their collective ability to get beyond the jokes and jabs and give the viewer bona fide insight and analysis. Take for instance their handling of Dallas‘s huge win in Washington on Sunday night, a victory that essentially saved the Cowboys’ season. Collinsworth was enamored with the effect Tony Romo’s return had on the Dallas defense, how upon seeing their leader back the unit played with renewed inspiration and passion. Simms pointed to the fact that Romo put only 14 points on the board and threw two picks. He wanted to know why a defense with eight first-rounders couldn’t have found that next gear when Romo was out. Sapp built on it all by agreeing that in the absence of the starting quarterback, a defense must take the burden away from the offense and dictate games — which the Cowboys D didn’t when Romo was down. Sapp talked about the 1999 season, when his Bucs’ lost Trent Dilfer and were forced to do more in order to make life easier for rookie Shaun King.

They all might have had varied takes on the game, but their contributions were individually and collectively valuable, and flowed well together in spite of any personal issues between them. That’s all it takes to create a successful product.

To sum it up: For ten bucks a month you get a guaranteed 12 rounds of Simms-Collinsworth, countless sound bytes from Sapp and lots of sardonic wit from JB. You get a show about football, rife with humor, tension and drama, yet complemented by an abundance of substance. And don’t forget about the unparalleled game footage provided by NFL Films.

It’s all there waiting for you. So grab the phone and dial up Showtime. You won’t regret it. I promise.

Just tell them Ballgame sent you.

Here are the Week 12 picks (Home teams in CAPS).

CLEVELAND over Houston

DALLAS over San Francisco

TENNESSEE over NY Jets

Tampa Bay over DETROIT

Buffalo over KANSAS CITY

Chicago over ST. LOUIS

New England over MIAMI

JACKSONVILLE over Minnesota

DENVER over Oakland

BALTIMORE over Philadelphia

ATLANTA over Carolina

NY Giants over ARIZONA

Washington over SEATTLE

Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO

Green Bay over NEW ORLEANS

Last Week/Thursday: 11-5-1

Overall: 103-56-1

Finally, I have to shout out my high school alma mater, BB&N, where the football team’s kicker just set a state-record by booting a 58-yard field goal. Pretty ridiculous, eh? The accomplishment got him a feature story on the ABC affiliate in Boston. In case you were wondering, we didn’t set any state records during my two seasons on the squad.