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Mar 18

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NCAA Tournament Preview

The NCAA tournament field begins with 65 teams, and in the span of four days, is whittled down to 16. Transpiring more like a continuous strike of lightning than 48 separate basketball games, the first two rounds of the Big Dance make it impossible to do anything else for the better part of 80 hours. Once the first ball goes up on Thursday at noon, you won’t see a blink throughout college basketball until Sunday evening.

By then, the real picture will have started to come into focus.

A few teams whose lower seeds indicate they should have fallen but remain standing will be given the Cinderella treatment, but chances are they won’t fit into the slipper. In reality, only a handful of schools each year have a viable shot at the whole shebang, and no champion has ever been called Cinderella. To win six consecutive elimination games requires lots of talent, a considerable amount of depth, and outstanding coaching.

Plus, of course, more than a little luck.

Following is a region by region breakdown of key games, possible sleepers, and the schools that will find their way to San Antonio.

East Region

Game to watch (5) Notre Dame vs. (12) George Mason– It was two years ago that George Mason turned the college hoops universe inside out, winning a regional final against a UConn team stacked with future NBA players. The Patriots instantly became the most improbable Final Four team (an 11th seed) in tournament history. After missing the Dance last year, Mason is back, and so is the mystique associated with the name. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is looking to settle some unfinished business after getting upset by Winthrop in last year’s tournament. The Irish have the inside/outside combo with Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney, but the Patriots won’t back down.

Possible sleeper (7) Butler– The Bulldogs have the resume of a top-five seed: 28 wins–Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Florida State among them–and only three losses (by an average of four points). They are led by a great point guard (Mike Green) and a cold-blooded shooter (A.J. Graves). Graves was the catalyst of their run to the Sweet 16 last year. And like it did against Florida last March, Butler has the ability to slow down a high-flying offense like Tennessee, the team it will be facing in the second round.

Advances to San Antonio (1) North Carolina– The Tobacco Road to the Alamo is paved for the Tar Heels. The number one overall seed in the tournament is always rewarded with the most favorable travel schedule. Two games in Raleigh followed by a regional in Charlotte (where the Heels just won the ACC tournament championship) should make up for what could be a few roadblocks (Notre Dame/Louisville/Tennessee). Tar Heel faithful are about as faithful as they come, and with UNC primed to make another run at the title, it’s just not possible to envision them getting bumped in their home state. And don’t forget about that Tyler Hansbrough character…

Midwest Region

Game to watch (6) USC vs. (11) Kansas State– Is there really any debate? Is it really a coincidence that the two most iconic freshmen in the country (O.J. Mayo and Michael Beasley) find themselves matched up against one another on college basketball’s grandest stage? I think not. While Beasley is pretty much the consensus number one pick in next years draft, as Kevin Durant was at this time last season, can Beasley pen a different conclusion to his brief collegiate career? Many thought Durant was going to replicate Carmelo Anthony’s performance of a few years before but that journey never even began as Texas was manhandled in the second round by…you guessed it, USC! Once again, in this matchup I don’t see a coincidence. I do see a heck of a basketball game though.

Possible sleeper (6) USC– The Trojans are toeing that line between sleeper and under-the-radar favorite. Most teams would prefer the former. Let’s put it this way: if USC can get past Kansas State, with Mayo and Taj Gibson representing a formidable and confident inside/outside presence, I see them running through Wisconsin and Georgetown en route to the Midwest Regional Final. They’re that scary.

Advances to San Antonio (1) Kansas– I won’t mince words. The Jayhawks, while maintaining a consistently elite recruiting class since the departure of Roy Williams, have drastically underperformed in March since Bill Self took over. That said, this is undoubtedly the most versatile Kansas team since the likes of Kirk Hinrich and Drew Gooden had them in three out of four regional finals. Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins are probably the best guard-trio in the country, and as anyone who follows the madness knows, guard play wins in March. This is the year Kansas gets back to the Final Four.

South Region

Game to watch (6) Marquette vs. (11) Kentucky– Big programs with experienced leaders traditionally make for entertaining tournament games. You’ll be hard-pressed to find an opening round matchup boasting two bigger powerhouses. As for tenured-leaders, look no further than Dominic James of Marquette and Kentucky’s Joe Crawford. With a combined seven years between them, both have played in a lot of important games. Add to that the rivalry that began when the Golden Eagles, carried by a phenom (one Dwyane Wade), stunned the top-seeded Wildcats in a 2003 regional final, and you have a recipe for a first round heart-pounder.

Possible sleeper (12) Temple– Under legendary coach Jon Chaney, no one really took note of how Temple got into the tournament when it did. All that mattered to opposing coaches and teams was the fact that the Owls were always a dark horse to make a deep run. Since Chaney’s departure, Temple has taken a few steps back, but the parallels between the 2008 Owls and past Temple teams are quickly becoming apparent: slow start, strong finish, unlikely Atlantic 10 tournament champion. The blueprint is there.

Advances to San Antonio (2) Texas– I think Memphis is the meanest, toughest and best overall team in the country. The problem is, they can’t shoot free throws! It doesn’t matter how good you are, because any team that has plans of winning it all will have to finish multiple games at the free throw line. The Tigers barely shoot 60% as a team, and their best free throw shooter, Derrick Rose, is a shade under 70%. That’s not going to cut it against a team like Texas. D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams are arguably the top guard-tandem in the country, and both are better than 79% shooters at the charity stripe. The Longhorns will advance because their guards can close out games.

West Region

Game to watch (7) West Virginia vs. (10) Arizona– There is always one team that has something to prove after gaining what many believe to be a bogus tourney bid. Last year it was Stanford. This year it’s Arizona. The Wildcats lost twice to Arizona State and finished with a worse conference record than their in-state rival, which had much of the college basketball world up in arms about ASU’s snub. The only way to justify its 24th straight tournament berth (the nation’s longest active streak) would be for the Wildcats to beat a traditionally solid tournament team in the Mountaineers.

Possible sleeper (5) Drake– It’s tough to deem a fifth seed a “sleeper” but Drake is certainly not a household name. They just finished annihilating the Missouri Valley Conference–which has shed the “mid-major” label with its quality and depth the last few years–and sport a 28-4 record overall. It looks like they’ll be meeting a suddenly-stumbling Connecticut team in the second round. A Sweet 16 appearance looks increasingly likely for the Bulldogs.

Advances to San Antonio (1) UCLA– Of all the top seeds, the Bruins have the fewest obstacles standing between them and another Final Four, as the West is the only region without multiple title contenders. The nucleus of this team–Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya, Lorenzo Mata–has been sniffing a national title the last two years, only to be thwarted by Florida both times (first in the National Championship, and last year in a National Semifinal). The Gator dynasty has been dismantled and Kevin Love is on the scene, which bode well for UCLA. This should be their easiest passage to the Final Four. The real question is will they be able to finish the job they began in 2006?

Mar 11

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Celtics’ Eyes on the Prize

When you think about it, the Celtics have been engaged in an interminable period of adjustment since Danny Ainge began wheeling and dealing the day after the draft last summer.

Once Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett were introduced in green, the Celtics had to adjust from life as a bottom feeder to an existence as a veritable contender. Then, after starting 29-3, they had to make the delicate transition from contender to early front-runner. Most recently, when KG had to sit out nine games prior to the All-Star break with an abdominal strain, they were forced to preserve an identity without their centerpiece.

Now, with Sam Cassell and P.J. Brown on board, fortifying one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league, the Celtics have one last phase of adjustment to tackle: bringing it all together for a run at title number 17.

With 21 regular season games remaining, Doc Rivers has about six weeks to integrate Cassell and Brown (and consequently reduce the roles of other players). If their current track record of adjustment holds up, odds are the Celtics will keep moving forward.

That seems to have become the M.O. of this team.

As obstacles–some real, others media contrived–have presented themselves, Danny and Doc’s boys have continued to work, continued to evolve. They haven’t allowed the many highs to be too high; the few lows to be too low. They have kept things on an even keel, which is what championship teams do.

The general manager and the coach deserve their fair share of the credit.

That Ainge and Rivers showed no haste in getting Garnett back on the court was both a reflection of the faith they had in the chemistry of the team as well as a recognition of the bigger picture. Ainge has made it no secret that there will be no talk of a possible restoration of the league’s most storied franchise or even of “The Big Three” until that seventeenth banner gets hung over the parquet. He said as much when he stood between Ray and KG at their unveiling, and has reiterated it over the course of the season.

The players wholeheartedly endorse the words of the man who assembled them, particularly the title-starved trio of stars who have led the team. Take, for instance, Allen’s comments prior to unquestionably the biggest game of the season against Detroit on March 5. “What is this game 59 for us? It’s business as usual.”

Maybe a bit trite, but given that he said it before a game in which the Celtics locked down the Pistons in the fourth quarter with a decisive 21-9 run, gained the head-to-head tiebreaker with their only close competitor, and reaffirmed their place at the top of the East, at the very least he was being candid. Allen only shot 1-for-9 that night, but he put in a blue-collar days work in defense of Richard Hamilton, which only served to validate his pregame assertion.

It’s business.

These days, skeptics argue that the Celtics won’t have the necessary gears to win a championship, won’t be able to turn it up when hardware is on the line against teams that have already been to the promised land. Time was, skeptics contended the Celtics couldn’t improve on their amazing start, couldn’t deal with the ramifications of tumbling back to the stark reality of a loaded-NBA.

21-9 since 29-3 has silenced that line of thinking. So too has the Green’s ability to stay tops in the league in opponents field goal percentage (42 percent) and opponents points per game (90.3). No passing lane is safe against this team either, as the Celtics continue to rank among the best at creating steals (8.7 per game, fourth overall).

It’s due to a cumulative commitment and relentless effort on the defensive end that have Boston positioned where not a whole lot thought it would be: locked and loaded for the stretch run having not yet peaked.

And here comes Cassell.

It’s hard to fathom a 38-year old point guard making or breaking a championship team, but this one will. He won rings his first two years in the NBA, which furnished him with a set of stones that have been the topic of many a water cooler. His ego is accordingly robust. He could conceivably be a problem for the incumbent and up-and-comer at his position, Rajon Rondo. Just don’t count on it.

Cassell spent considerable time with Allen in Milwaukee and Garnett in Minnesota. He knows he’s coming onto this team to take a backseat to Rondo, mentor the young man, and when called upon, assume control of the rock in crunch time. Just as KG, Ray and Paul assured everyone they would spread the wealth for the good of the team, so too has Cassell expressed his readiness to do what’s necessary to win.

“I don’t have to take 15-20 shots to make the Boston Celtics a championship team,” he said. As for Rondo? “I don’t want his job. I’m just here to make the team better.”

Cassell has talked the talk throughout his entire career. He’s done the walkin’ too. Now he becomes the final piece on a team that has been under reconstruction for the last nine months. One last adjustment before the real games begin.

“From what I’ve heard, there’s nothing like getting a championship in Boston,” said Cassell.

You heard right, Sam.

Feb 29

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Third Time’s the Charm for the Amazins

To say the Mets fan base has been struggling the last two seasons is like saying it hurts breaking your collar bone. Both are ridiculous understatements.

If Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS forced Mets faithful into a transitory comatose state, the last three weeks of the 2007 season turned them permanently despondent. In the weeks and months following The Collapse, I had one friend who may or may not have burned all of his Mets attire (I was too scared to inquire whether or not he had followed through on his pledge). I had another buddy who quit on sports all together, assuming a “f— baseball, f— sports, f— it all” state of mind for longer than I care to remember. And one more still who would literally lose the color in his face when any Mets-related topic was raised.

It was that bad.

It was as if in October of ’06, Metropolitan nation had collectively proposed to the woman they loved, only to be rejected in the most heart wrenching of fashions. Then, the next April she changed her mind, said yes, spent five and a half months making wedding preparations only to bail from the altar on the big day. That’s despondent. That was the state of the Mets.

That was all before Johan.

Before Johan, Mets fans were dreading the 2008 season more than a root canal. There’s the difference between 2007 and pre-Johan 2008. In ’07 the Mets–while still wounded from Game 7–began spring training with a cold sense of determination; a purpose of finishing what they had started the October before. After establishing themselves as the team to beat in the National League, that silent confidence slowly started to turn into a careless swagger. And yadda yadda yadda. Seven games up with 17 to play became dust, and just like that 2007, the year of Mets redemption, was bygones.

It was the proverbial knockout blow, and no one–not even Pedro–could pull the Mets off the mat. For once, the offseason couldn’t be long enough. To add insult to injury, when the Twins made it known they were trying to trade Johan Santana, the Yankees-Red Sox arms race reconstituted itself, which to the rest of baseball meant either the Yankees or Red Sox would land the best pitcher on the planet, if they so chose.

Then came a play even more implausible than Yadier Molina’s mind-boggling home run in Game 7: both superpowers abstained from pulling the trigger on Johan. That opened the door for the Mets to enter stage left and steal Santana from a Twins organization beginning to fear that in a year they would lose Johan and have nothing to show for him except an empty locker.

And poof! For the world according to Flushing, tempestuous night had at last given way to sunny day.

Suddenly Mets gear was popping up around New York again. Many shirts read “Santana” on the backs, but that was as much a slap in the face to hated-Yankees fans as it was a revival of Mets-fandom. The real indicator of the awakening was in each “Reyes”, “Wright” and “Beltran” jersey that started to reappear. They had all been on long hiatus in the back of the closet.

Now the jerseys are back in rotation, and the players whose names grace the fabric have been given new life as well. Wright is ready to assume more of a vocal leadership role. Reyes has vowed to be more disciplined and mature on the base paths. Pedro says he feels better than he has in years. And that guy named Johan should be able to pitch in his two cents.

Needless to say, apprehension remains a product of Mets-syndrome, newfound confidence or not. Santana started his first game as a Met on February 29, and promptly gave up a first inning three-run blast to Juan Gonzalez (yes, the same former MVP, “Juan Gone”, who has been long gone from baseball the last half decade). Simultaneously, Metsblog.com, the haven for Met-chatter, started filling up with ominous postings:

“Ah Spring!! Where the dreams of all Mets fans go to die!” (Sheahey81)

“Some start…did the Wilpons ask for their money back yet?” (jtcuse44)

“We can trade him to the Yankees with the contract for Hughes and Kennedy.” (FBones24)

“The sky is clearly falling.” (ginsengbomb)

Humor can be a remedy for pain. It can also serve as a mechanism to prevent serious attachment to something. Mets fans are dealing with elements of both. However, there’s a reason they’re even able to joke about their team again without wincing. It’s because they know in the back of their heads that they already had a good team before it self-destructed last year. Now they have the best pitcher of the generation paired with one of the greatest of all-time. Whether Pedro starts 18 games or 30, he will bring out the best in Johan, and he will bring out the best in the Mets. The guy does know a thing or two about saving lost franchises in the last year of his contract.

Pedro could be back next year, but Shea Stadium will not. The final bell will toll on the hideous hunk of steel at the end of this season, and the Mets will move to newly-constructed Citi Field in 2009. With Johan now aboard, the team and its fans can finally stop looking at the move as an escape from misery, and instead concentrate on making Shea’s swan song a tune to remember.

Feb 22

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Five Red Sox Topics to Discuss

Spring Training has barely gotten under way for the world champs in Fort Myers and there are already many questions coming to the forefront. Among them…

Coco vs. Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury will be patrolling the Fenway triangle for the next ten years. You can take that to the bank. If the Sox brass ultimately wouldn’t package him for Johan Santana, he’s not going anywhere for a long time. The question now becomes what to do with Coco Crisp. For a guy who inspired very little confidence at the plate last year, Crisp was nothing short of mesmerizing as the Red Sox center fielder in 2007. The catch he made to formally clinch the pennant and ease an otherwise rough ALCS was a fitting summation of his ’07 season: almost nothing offensively but a savior in center. Ideally for Coco and the Red Sox, both he and Ellsbury start hot this spring. That will enable Ellsbury to ensure Terry Francona and Theo Epstein that he is ready to be the man at the top of the order (as if hitting .353 down the stretch and .438 in the World Series without even qualifying as a rookie wasn’t enough). Coco will be able to earn the starting job he wants (and deserves). And Theo will be in good selling position. Dealing Coco and a mid-level prospect of his choice would probably be enough to get a number two or three starter (Joe Blanton?) in return.

Extension for Francona?

He took over for a guy who had made the most egregious managerial blunder in Red Sox history. He arrived in a historically wounded baseball city that was at the time stuck in a collective coma. He entered a baseball atmosphere where he wasn’t being counted on to win, he wasn’t expected to win, he absolutely, positively had to win. The livelihood of a Nation was at stake. And he did it. He managed the first team to ever climb out of an 0-3 hole. He led the first group of world champion Red Sox in 86 years. Then he did it all over again two seasons later. Tito will get his extension and it will be a significant pay raise from the $1.65 million he was paid in 2007. Theo and the Trio know it’s a small price to pay to the man who has struck the right notes with his players and delivered the goods.

Manny being Manny?

Manny was the first to admit that he wasn’t Manny all last season. However, he figured things out in the playoffs. He hasn’t forgotten about his very ordinary ’07 regular season though, which broke a streak of nine-consecutive 30+ home run/100+ RBI campaigns. In response to the first average season of his career, he changed his offseason workout regimen, opting to train at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona. He reported for spring training on time (no sideshows or car shows). And when he volunteered his time to reporters in Fort Myers, he professed his love for Boston and desire to end his career as a Red Sox. Is it a coincidence that Manny’s eight-year, $160 million contract expires after this season? Or that he has two exercisable option years at $20 million a pop? Is anything a coincidence with Manny? He said he would gladly trade his stats from last year for the ring he won, but don’t interpret that as his being content with a sub par output in 2007. As for 2008? “I’m just gonna go play the game, man,” he said. “Whatever happens, happens.” That’s probably as close to a verbal forewarning as we’ll ever receive from Manuel.

Will Dice-K turn it up?

This time last year was Dice-mania. All of the focus was on catering to Dice-K and trying to do everything possible to make a monumental transition manageable. All and all the cultural adjustment was ameliorated by the dogged efforts of the Red Sox front office. They brought in specialized trainers, translators and chefs for Dice-K. They expanded the clubhouse to accommodate the Japanese beat writer contingent. John Farrell, the Red Sox pitching coach, studied Japanese. Jason Varitek put in countless hours getting to know the tendencies and intricacies of his new battery mate. And that’s only scratching the surface. Dice-K’s first season in America ended up reflecting that period of adjustment. He showed an ability to overwhelm MLB hitters with his array of stuff and biting fastball. But his control was a major issue and prevented him from consistently going deep into ballgames. Too often his inability to find the strike zone forced him to go away from his secondary pitches. This year he will have the chance to concentrate more on working with Varitek and less on assimilating to daily life half a world away from his home.

Drew year two?

Two things are certain. 1) J.D. Drew grossly underachieved in his first year as a Red Sox; he was a $14 million mess for five months, and 2) He made up for it all with a single swing of the bat. There is no player in my lifetime who endured more scrutiny only to end up being heralded as a hero. Until J.D. Drew. So what should we expect in his second season? More of the Drew we saw last September and October. It’s apparent he had difficulty making the transition to the most critical sports town in the country. He also dealt with an illness to his son throughout the ’07 season. But he came through when it mattered and he has that, in addition to the worst possible first year in a Sox uniform, under his belt. If he can avoid significant injury, expect a nice bounce-back year in 2008 for the guy who struck the $14 million grand slam.

Feb 15

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NBA Midseason Report

The NBA needed this. If the league was ever going to recover from the crippling blow it took as a result of the Tim Donaghy betting scandal last summer, it needed nothing short of an intriguing, unpredictable, and continually entertaining regular season in 2008. It has gotten that, and more. Right now its only nagging problem is the lack of depth in the East. Only five teams are over .500 (although the two best teams in the East are also the top two teams in the NBA). The West, by comparison, has ten teams over .500, with a staggering nine of those squads currently on pace to win 50 games. That means it’s entirely possible that a 50-win team could be left out of the playoffs in the West while a few 38 and 40-win teams could be playing postseason ball in the East. Yikes. But don’t think about tuning out the playoffs just yet. The seemingly polarized NBA is in reality completely the opposite. There is parity among title-contenders, which is to say not only are there more than a few teams that could win it all (nine, by my count), but for once there is no clear cut favorite. The combination of the Spurs again snoozing through a title-defense and a fistful of really good teams around them is the explanation. Overall, four things have stuck out to me that have contributed to the resuscitation of a league that was teetering on the edge of implosion a few months ago. Let’s examine them.

1) A Cinderella Story: the New Orleans Hornets What more can be said of the city of New Orleans and its sports teams? The Saints, historically a perennial football joke throughout the state of Louisiana, reentered the Superdome two years ago and rattled off the best season in franchise history, finishing a few plays short of the Super Bowl. And now the Hornets, after two years spent shuttling between Oklahoma City and venues in Louisiana, have returned home exclusively in 2008. They too are in the process of rewriting N’Awlins sports history. In addition to hosting All-Star festivities this weekend, the Hornets have the best mark in the West (36-15), are on pace to break the franchise record of 54 wins, and have a legitimate MVP candidate running the show. Just how good is Chris Paul? He has dished out 15+ assists in a game eight times this year. He has also dropped 40+ points on three occasions. He’s already the best point guard of the next generation. And though it may be too much to expect the Hornets to maintain the top spot in the West, this is a team that has shown it can win on the road (a conference-best 19-7). Plus, if the fans of New Orleans have anything to say about it, their Hornets will be hard to knock off at home come playoff time (if the fans decide to show up, that is). Cinderella is usually reserved for the college ranks, but the story of this team fits the script.

2) A Resurgence: the Boston Celtics The biggest knock on the Celtics going into this season had nothing to do with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. It was all about the guys around them. Where were those necessary 35-40 nightly points going to come from in order for the Celtics to win ballgames? How would the team respond when Ray inevitably went down for a period of time? Could the young guys handle the requisite mystique that went hand in hand with a basketball resurgence in Boston? All of those questions were slowly being answered all year through consistent play and gritty defense from role players like Rajon Rondo, Leon Powe, James Posey, Tony Allen and Eddie House. Then the imminent injury happened, except it wasn’t Ray that went down. It was KG. The cynics eagerly awaited the impending swoon, but it never came. The team only got stronger. First they beat Dallas on national television. Then on a Sunday afternoon game against the defending champion-Spurs, it all came together. They played with swagger, with purpose. Against a team full of bling, a team that Paul had never beaten in his own house, the Celtics played like they were the champs. They did it on Red Auerbach’s court without their best player. It took a guy like Glen Davis ferociously manning up Tim Duncan on a national stage to finally open some eyes. Suffice to say they’re opened now. The Celtics went 7-2 without the league’s MVP and proved to everyone who was skeptical that they are more than the “Boston Three Party”. A good deal more.

3) Big Trades: The Lakers and Suns Shaq is back in the West and Kobe has a front court. Enough said. Okay, I’ll say more. Shaq is a man who likes to undertake missions. He handled business in Miami, and his presence brought the city sustained joy and a ring. Now he’s in Phoenix, trying to be the final piece on a team that has already been on the brink of a championship the last three years. As a keen auxiliary to Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, Shaq should be able to provide the Suns with what they need: a big man with championship experience who can guard the paint on defense, haul in rebounds and outlet the ball to Nash and the runnin’ Suns. In his ripening age Shaq has recognized he’s best suited as a facilitator for the stars around him, but that doesn’t mean he’s lost an ounce of his incomparable competitive edge.

As for Kobe, well he should at last be sufficiently sold on the intent of the Lakers to win now. By adding Pau Gasol to a front court that already featured an established veteran in Lamar Odom and a rising big man in Andrew Bynum (who has been under the tutelage of one Kareem Abdul Jabbar for some time), Kobe has what he’s wanted since he ran Shaq out of town four years ago. That’s three guys at or around seven feet, each possessing distinct low post capabilities. However, the Lakers have serious health issues to cope with. Kobe has torn ligaments in his pinkie finger, which mean either surgery (and 6-8 weeks on the sideline) or playing through pain. If Kobe can fight through it and Bynum comes back healthy, the Lakers will be a bona fide contender. I still see them a year removed that status. Regardless, Suns-Lakers in round two this year would definitely be must-see television.

4) Contenders! As I wrote above, there are nine legitimate contenders this year, or about seven and half more than usual. In the East, the Celtics have the pieces and chemistry to win it all. The Pistons have a nucleus that has done it before. In the West, the Spurs remain the team to beat. The Lakers have been a thorn in the side of San Antonio, preventing them from reaching true-dynasty status. The Suns are the hungriest team in the West, and with a little diesel power they could be motoring towards a championship. The cohabitation (which is an understatement) of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony has the Nuggets straight chillin’ and waiting for their shot. The Mavericks might have wasted their opportunity two years ago, but after last year’s debacle, I wouldn’t count Dirk out just yet. The Hornets are onto something down in the Big Easy. And the Jazz, led by Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, showed they were on their way to the next level by making a run to the Western Finals last year.

So there it is. The NBA is back. The NBA is fun again. The NBA cares.

(And David Stern didn’t even have to break out the mind control device.)

Feb 8

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18-1

Football has a knack for defining its most indefinable in the simplest of fashions. The Catch. The Drive. The Fumble. The Tackle. Minus the article, each exists merely as a single inherent, fundamental aspect of the game. Add the article and you get four of the of the most miraculous happenings in NFL history. The Catch propelled the 49ers to the first of their four Super Bowls led by Joe Montana. The Drive and The Fumble, endured by the Browns at the hands of the Broncos in successive AFC Championships, still haunt the city of Cleveland. And The Tackle of Tennessee’s Kevin Dyson at the 1-yard line by Rams linebacker Mike Jones, solidified “The Greatest Show on Turf”. Other than The Immaculate Reception, I can’t think of one history-changing play that stands out both in significance and formal historic title.

I guess what I’m trying to say is before this week I’d never really understood why football always seemed to qualify its most cherished and improbable moments in such a nuts and bolts kind of way. Then, in the five days following Super Bowl XLII, I found myself waking up everyday thinking about one thing–That Play. I would see Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour with Eli Manning in their mitts, see Eli yank himself away, cock back and throw–knowing that with all that time the Giants receivers must have gotten behind the Patriots secondary–then see Rodney Harrison actually there. There to make a play that he makes, almost snapping the back bone of David Tyree as he wrestles him to the ground. Yet somehow the ball rests between Tyree’s hand and his helmet; the only part of his person not in violent contortion as a result of Harrison’s hit. Everything hits the ground. Except the ball. The catch has been made. That Play has happened. Except it doesn’t strike me. It doesn’t compute. Everything we’ve been through. Everything they’ve been through. It all vanishes with one epic play.

Only when I was able to comprehend That Play itself did I finally realize why football needs no poetry to capture its greatest happenings. They capture themselves. That’s the beauty of the NFL Playoffs, of the game of football: It’s simplicity. One chunk of sixty minutes will determine a winner and a loser. There is no championship series; no losing home field but still having a shot on the road; no regrouping after a total brain fart. In football, tomorrow exists not as another opportunity but as a finality. It’s hard to believe that on the first “tomorrow” after the 2007 NFL season, the perfect-Patriots were suddenly the defeated-Patriots. It took them 18 games and five months to gain monolithic status, something that could only be substantiated by their unprecedented 18-0 record. And it took sixty minutes to wipe it all away.

The writing was on the wall. Books by the Boston Herald and Boston Globe chronicling the historic 19-0 Patriots. A victory parade in the works for Super Tuesday (Boston.com story). A celebrity girlfriend in attendance. An ankle injury dismissed as another insignificant speed bump in the slow but sure trek to immortality. By the time the confetti was falling in Glendale, all had become terrible omens. When the confetti arrived, the book disappeared. So too did the map of the parade route. And while we won’t ever know for sure just how ominous Gisele’s presence was, or more importantly, how severe Brady’s ankle injury was, we fell into the trap. Might as well call it the perfect trap.

I remember hearing about the book and the parade sometime during Super Bowl week, and how briefly, a chill ran down the back of my spine. I recalled how during the Patriots first Super Bowl run, the Steelers were handing out Super Bowl tickets before the AFC Championship and St. Louis was planning championship festivities before they had even lined up against New England. I remember how I scoffed at the time. The parallels between the 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants (not to mention the teams they were facing as well as the grandeur of their fan bases) had already been well established. You know where the parallels ended? At Brady and Belichick’s perfect 3-0 record in Super Bowls as the platform on which 18-0 stood. Thus the trap had been set.

There was to be no wavering. The outcome, although most critical, seemed most obvious. It was obvious because of 3-0 and 18-0, because of the swagger that went along with those unblemished marks, because of the bitter feelings of resentment that had stemmed from CameraGate, because of the fact that anyone tied to the Patriots was up against everyone else. In Week 2 a line was drawn in the sand. On one side were the Patriots, led by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, followed by their supporters. On the other side was everyone else, led by Eric Mangini, Mercury Morris and (evidently) Arlen Specter. As time passed and wins mounted, the divide only grew wider; the respective feelings only became harsher.

Like it often does in football, it all became personal. It still is. Will always be. However, That Play happened. That Play threw history off its axis. At this moment past and future mean nothing. Right now, the Giants are champions and the ’72 Dolphins are the only perfect team in football history.

As for everyone on the “enemy side” of that line in the sand–coaches, players, fans, writers alike–it is now bitingly clear that for all of us, pride came before the fall. The 2007 Patriots finished 18-1 and will be remembered as the greatest failure in football history.

Feb 1

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Super Bowl Thoughts and THE XLII PICK

I rarely moan and groan, and when I choose to do so it is always about one thing. Access. Or my general lack thereof. Regrettably, being founder, editor, and sole writer of Ballgamespoints.com doesn’t qualify me for access to Super Bowl Week. There were approximately 5,000 media credentials issued for Media Day XLII, going to everyone ranging from a 9-year-old kid probably skipping a test on the times-tables to a striking Mexican TV reporter sporting a wedding gown and using the platform to propose to Tom Brady. And every other conceivable character in between. Nothing for me though. Bollocks. So here I am again, digesting the buildup to the big game from my cove in Brooklyn. But don’t stop reading; I’m not about to unleash a thousand fuming words illustrating my displeasure. I’ll spare you the tirade awash in vitriol and sulk. Just know it’s in there, festering. That makes me feel better.

What I will use this column as is a way of figuring out what exactly I’m going to do for the game, which I haven’t yet decided. The field has been narrowed to two choices. I can either A) go to Boston, watch the Pats with my Boston friends on a 62-incher, and pour into the streets of Beantown after the rebirth of a dynasty, or B) go to Staten Island, watch the game on a TV of comparable girth with my New York crew, and run the risk of being maimed. True, the answer seems obvious enough, but don’t jump to premature conclusions. There are pros and cons that go with each scenario.

Boston first. No doubt, being in Boston for a championship is wicked awesome. I was there for the Patriots’ second Super Bowl triumph. The venue was my buddy’s apartment at BU. After Vinatieri kicked the game-winner, we joined a couple thousand BU kids in a march down Comm Ave toward Kenmore Square, the de facto centre of celebration post-Boston championships. When we got there we were met by tens of thousands more, who we joined forces with to turn the gateway of Fenway into a massive rave of champions. Small fires produced pockets of primitive light, surrounded by boozed-up Bostonians and college kids. Lamp posts were climbed and conquered by the boldest; these revelers relished their moment above the masses by firing up cigars and belting out unintelligible cries of victory. Chants of “Let’s Go Red Sox” echoed from North Station to Copley Square. But the real party raged in the shadows of the edifice that had left Boston feeling hollow every autumn for 86 years. With the Red Sox (at the time…) continuing to tear the hearts out of their faithful, watching the Patriots had become a therapeutic practice for all us starving New England sports fans. They helped us channel our passion and anguish. In the almost-four months subsequent to the Grady Little-Pedro-Game 7 debacle, the Patriots didn’t lose once. Hence the culmination in Kenmore.

So how can I possibly find a “con” in that scenario? For better or worse, the sports fervor in Boston undoubtedly boils over when a team wins a title. And the night I’m referencing pretty much started that trend. By the time the waves of SWAT personnel occupied the bridge over the Massachusetts Turnpike (which separates Fenway from Kenmore), it was clear that dispersing the masses of people in the square, all full of bravado and cheap beer, would be a challenge. The cops, clad in their riot control gear, stood at attention. The masses continued to taunt the law until our collective sinuses informed us that a huge cloud of pepper spray (or some irritant of the kind) was hanging overhead. Then the SWAT line started its advance. Move or be moved. Most moved. Some were moved. I woke up the next day feeling exhilarated and relieved. Exhilarated that my Patriots were again world champs; relieved that I wasn’t one of the few hundred to spend a bruised-up night in the clink. Wild times. Times that I relived the next year when the Sox finally won the World Series. So you see? I’ve been there, done that, and at the time had that cloak of invincibility better known as college student-status.

Now I’m knee deep in the “real world”, attempting to make it in the field of sportswriting. And I’ll tell you something. The only thing better than having been in Boston for those two defining moments was being in New York for the 2004 ALCS (Games 4-7 that is). I gained an immense amount of perspective into the psyches of the sports fans in this city, because for once, they revealed something other than obtuse superiority (yes, I’m speaking to you, Yankee fans). Even better is the fact that with multiple teams in each sport, cross-sport affiliations aren’t set in stone. I have one buddy who is a Yankees/Giants fan; another who supports the Mets/Jets combo; another yet who bleeds Mets and Giants; and rounding out the bunch, one guy who has undying love for the Yankees and whichever team Michael Vick will be on come Madden 2010. An eccentric bunch, these New Yorkers.

Which brings us full circle, back to “Super Bowl Scenario B”. All of the previously mentioned characters will be at Cotter’s (aka Mr. Mets/Giants) domicile on Staten Island, where a fully stocked bar and an assortment of Chinese appetizers are promised. Not to mention a sporting experience that will clearly shape the near future. If the Giants win, I will never, ever, ehhhhhhhhver hear the end of it, so I might as well be there for the beginning. And if the Patriots win, after dusting off the shards from the plate glass window I get jettisoned through, I’ll have to find a way to exit good ole S.I. without incurring further damage. Either way, it’s a story waiting to be written. And while the story of taking in a title in Boston will never get old, I’ve already lived it twice, and have just written about it. So I think the debate is resolved. For XLII, it will be the Island of Staten. As for the game itself…

THE XLII PICK

For the record, I’m 7-3 this postseason. More importantly, I’m 4-1 in games which involved the Patriots and Giants, with my first “L” coming after I picked Green Bay in the NFC Championship. (As for that someone who’s 5-0, please make yourself known; I’ll give you your own paragraph.) Because I live in New York and love the Patriots, I can count on one hand the number of combined Giants/Patriots games I’ve missed this year. Which is to say I know these teams, know them better than any two teams in the NFL. I will allow that before Week 17 I made a gross misstep in my assertion that Tom Coughlin would be crazy to risk injury to his starters by playing them against the Patriots in a meaningless game. While they did lose three key guys in the loss, that game unequivocally lifted the team to a higher place, beginning first and foremost with Eli Manning. There is simply no other way to explain and/or justify winning three road games and dethroning three NFC division champions in the playoffs. That is the G-Men’s claim to fame summed up. They almost beat the Patriots, used the loss as a watershed moment in which potential was realized, and have steamrolled the competition ever since. They are prepared, focused and confident. They have walked the walk.

Unfortunately for the Giants, in Super Bowl XLII they will not be facing the 2006 Colts or the 2003 Patriots or even the 2000 Ravens (who dismantled the last Giants outfit to make the Super Bowl). Those are three of the great championship teams of the last decade. Three title-winning teams that may have seen their own destinies altered if they ran into these ’07 Giants. No, they’re not playing one of those teams. They’re playing the 2007 Patriots, the first group of professional football players to sit at 18-0; the first squad to be both undefeated and slighted; the only team that could claim to be on a mission that trumps the mission of these G-Men. In its NFL standings section this year, the New York Post stuck an asterisk next to the Patriots name every week, which correlated to a phrase at the bottom of the page: caught cheating. The Patriots are determined to maintain that asterisk forever, except with a different phrase to interpret it: only 19-0 team in football history. Damned if the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, Jaguars or Chargers were going to thwart them. Same for the Giants a month ago. Like those before and after them, the Giants smelled blood, Patriots blood, but couldn’t seal the deal.

There’s only one way the Giants can hope to put themselves back in that position: get to Brady. Get to him early and often. Get to him in the huddle, before the snap, after the whistle. Get to him in his sleep Saturday night. If the Giants want to stand a chance, they better understand that anything short of a total incursion on Tom Brady will lead to their downfall. But let’s face it. That won’t happen. The Patriots have come too far. They’ve had a vendetta to settle since their collapse in the AFC Championship last year in Indy, since Eric Mangini blew the whistle on CameraGate in Week 2. Each victory has gotten tougher, but so too has their resolve. When other teams have sniffed blood, the Patriots have sniffed immortality, yet refused to let it faze or distract them. They are out to prove Mangini is a traitorous rat. They are itching to huff and puff and blow down the neighborhood of Mercury Morris and the rest of those loony ’72 Dolphins. They have played 18 one-game seasons to get here. Football may be a business, but winning football games has become the business of the New England Patriots. That job ends Sunday night.

Patriots 30 Giants 24

Jan 17

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Pats vs. Vegas II (and Giants-Pack)

It was just about two months ago that I waxed theoretical about the Patriots, hypothesizing that their most serious opponent was, and would remain, Las Vegas. At the time of the piece, New England was 10-0 overall, with its average margin of victory standing at 25 points. Because sportsbooks had traditionally shied away from allowing NFL spreads to approach the 20s, and considering the Patriots were thoroughly nullifying that stratagem–winning games by more than three touchdowns–the Pats were an astonishing 9-1 ATS (against the spread). I talked about how big gamblers with big money were taking Vegas to the bank on the backs of the revengeful-Patriots. And were they ever. (Past tense.)

It was no coincidence that after that ridiculous 1-9 start versus the Patriots, Vegas began to compensate for its losses. Overcompensate, in fact. Beginning with the Eagles game (Pats by 24.5), Vegas started making the Patriots such titanic favorites it was almost as if the sportsbooks had dumped the expertise of Jekyll in favor of Hyde. The lines for New England’s remaining games went like this: -19 at Baltimore; -11 against Pittsburgh; -20.5 against the Jets; -22.5 against Miami; -13.5 at the Giants; -13.5 against Jacksonville. They covered exactly one of those games, the Steelers. That’s six of the last seven going to Vegas, courtesy of the Patriots becoming human. Or was it?

There are two principle explanations for how Vegas pulled the strings on a total one-eighty, turning a team that was a historic 9-1 ATS into a run-of-the-mill 10-7 overall. First are the whales I referenced before; those gamblers with huge egos and huger bankrolls. They absolutely and undeniably reamed Vegas over the first two months and change. When someone is lucky enough to do that, what ends up happening is they generally catch a waft of invincibility, which Vegas pounces on. Pounce they did by way of the aforementioned spreads. And all those gamblers who spent more than half of the 2007 season lounging on Cloud 9, sustained by the fury of the Patriots, came crashing back to earth. Why? Because a gambler is swayed by the guise of a “sure thing”. Vegas adapted to the reality that on the football field the Patriots were the closest to a sure thing that American sports had ever witnessed. They were able to adapt because of the Patriots’ perfection and the confidence it instilled in the bettors. So they started skyrocketing the spreads, and the gamblers, captivated by the excellence of the Pats, kept drinking the Kool-Aid. In other words, Vegas actually succeeded in exploiting the strength of its adversary.

The second explanation, which Vegas duly incorporated into its bloated spreads, was the Patriots’ perfection itself. Specifically, the fact that with each passing week another professional football organization had no other ambition than to go out and conjure up every ion of collective hubris in an end-all attempt to derail this mystical and improbable march towards football immortality. Over the last six games of the regular season and the first game of the playoffs, the Patriots played seven Super Bowls through the helmets of their opponents. The Steelers failed miserably. The Jets and Dolphins performed admirably. The Eagles and Giants were as awe-inspiring in defeat as a team could possibly be. The reverberations from “the miracles in Baltimore” are still being felt. And the Jaguars fought tooth and nail for three quarters. Anyone who expected the Patriots to be throttling teams through December and into January simply doesn’t know football. Which brings us to this weekend’s AFC Championship Game.

The Chargers are a good football team. In light of their latest win against the Colts it’s safe to say they would have probably won the Super Bowl last year if the Patriots hadn’t ended their season at Qualcomm Stadium (better yet, if Marty Schottenheimer and Marlon McCree hadn’t joined forces to end their season at Qualcomm). They stumbled out of the gates this year but rebounded and regained form. They are banged up, for sure, and a combination of immaturity and classlessness (see: Phillip Rivers jawing with Indy fans last week and Igor Olshansky’s dim-witted comments the other day) has become this team’s calling card. But they are talented.

LaDainian Tomlinson, who has been as much of a non-factor in his team’s two playoff wins as a superstar can be, will give the Patriots some problems running between the tackles. It’s his cutback ability that is deadly, however, which means Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas will need to stick to their assignments and wait for the chance to knock LT out of the game with a big blind-side hit when he attempts a cutback. In the passing game, while Antonio Gates will be limited because of a foot injury, the Chargers wideouts have stepped up as the games have become more important. Vincent Jackson has been superb and Chris Chambers always menaced the Patriots during his tenure with Miami; don’t think for a second he’s planning on changing his ways.

Anyone expecting a repeat of the Patriots 38-14, post-CameraGate whupping of the Chargers in Week 2 better start reevaluating sooner than later. Patriots-Chargers has become the second best rivalry in the league behind Pats-Colts, not only because of the bad blood that has lingered between the two teams since the beginning of the 2004 season, but also because San Diego has shown to be the only other team capable of beating Indy. They’ve come too far to roll over. With that said, the Chargers most significant strength lies in their ability to create turnovers. They were +24 this season, which was best in the NFL (followed, of course, by Indy at +18 and the Patriots at +16). Needless to say, the Patriots defy anyone to win the turnover battle with them in the playoffs, which will lead to the demise of the Chargers. But don’t be fixated on 17-0, because the Patriots surely aren’t. Don’t be fooled by the Vegas-manipulation of Patriot-gamblers. Understand that this will be a game. And if Phillip Rivers is unable to play, don’t think for a second that Billy Volek won’t come in guns-blazing and start firing away (the Patriots, lest we forget, have met formidable opponents in perennial backups, AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller).

As opposed to the playoff game last year, the Patriots will control this game behind the greatest quarterback to ever play the position. They might even go up by two touchdowns. But the Chargers won’t back down. Time and again they’ve made it clear in their over-the-top, overly-arrogant manner that they are not scared of the big, bad Pats. What they still haven’t gotten through their thick heads, though, is that fear aside, they are simply not as good of a football team as the Patriots.

Patriots 27 Chargers 20

NFC Championship

Very few thought the Giants, led by Eli Manning, would be one of the final four standing this season. Fewer even could have predicted that brother Peyton would be finished before Eli. So what now? Do the networks honor their contractual agreements with Mastercard and play the requisite loops of “Priceless Pep Talks with Peyton Manning”, during a Peyton-less championship Sunday? Is that funny? Fitting? Sad? A conflict of interest? Not really, not when revenue is the only matter of interest. For now we’ll call it a funny, fitting and sad conflict of embarrassment. Plus, who knows, maybe Eli is a Lambeau-gem away from stealing the bit from his big bro. And now, another priceless pep-talk with Eli Manning! “Priceless” as that may be, let’s not jump the gun.

Let’s stick to the truth, which is Eli will be playing in a championship game a full two years before his brother did. More relevant is the fact that, beginning with the Patriots game three weeks ago, the bumbling little brother has grown up, grown into a Manning. He has done it on the biggest and most primetime of stages: against the Patriots with nothing on the line but football pride, and then twice on the road in the playoffs, the second against his team’s oldest rival. Say what you will about him, but regardless of Peyton’s shocking loss last weekend, Eli has marched his way into the spotlight. He’s earned it. You can mark it down now, the future belongs to Eli Manning. However, as much fun as it is to look ahead, we are perpetually stuck in the present, whether fully aware of it or not. Only experience can thoroughly validate that notion. On Sunday afternoon at Lambeau, the present will belong to Brett Favre, because he knows the future is a precarious concept to harness.

There is no doubt that the Giants have been playing like they don’t just want a rematch with New England, but they are entitled to it. The defense has been outstanding, tossing aside the Buccaneers like rag dolls before bullying the Cowboys into submission once Eli gave them a lead in the second half. But a Sunday on the frozen tundra of Lambeau with a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, well that’s a different story. Early forecasts are calling for a temperature in the low single digits. It also snows pretty much everyday in Green Bay during the winter. Given that Eli has never played in temperatures colder than 24 degrees, and given that Brett Favre, well uh, has, it’s simply not possible to expect Eli to maintain his level of performance. Both teams will want and need to run the ball. Both defenses will be stingy and stout in the red zone. This is going to be an old-school type football game, fought in the trenches, and decided in the fourth quarter. Eli and the Giants have had a defining season that will undoubtedly springboard them to success for years to come. Sunday, however, is reserved for one of the game’s legends to shine one more time.

Packer 20 Giants 16

Jan 11

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NFL Divisional Preview

It’s Divisional Weekend of the NFL Playoffs. Need we say more?

Seattle at Green Bay “We want the ball, and we’re gonna score,” claimed Matt Hasselbeck four years ago. In that wild card game the Seahawks won the coin flip in overtime, got the ball, and scored. Problem was, Hasselbeck threw a pick-6 to Al Harris and the Packers advanced without Brett Favre even taking the field in the sudden death period. Since that day Seattle has won three playoff games and appeared in a Super Bowl. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost two straight in January. That streak will come to an end on Saturday. Proponents of a Seattle upset argue that the youth of Green Bay will have trouble dealing with the “Lambeau mystique”. I disagree. As much as he would like to reflect on the moment in jest, there must be a part of Hasselbeck that is haunted by that January day in 2004. He challenged the aura of Green Bay and paid the price of elimination. Now, once again, the Seahawks hopes will ride on the shoulders of Hasselbeck. The Green Bay defense is young and physical, led by a star in the making, AJ Hawk. They will stuff Shaun Alexander and put the onus on Hasselbeck to beat them through the air against one of the best matchup-corner tandems in the league (Harris and Charles Woodson). If Green Bay can establish any running game with Ryan Grant and force the Seahawks to bring extra defenders into the box, this game could get ugly because Favre’s primary receivers (Donald Driver and Greg Jennings) will have one on one coverage on the outside. Seattle should be able to bring pressure with their front seven and keep the game close. If any of Green Bay’s young guys are going to experience some playoff jitters, I would suspect Grant. But that’s okay when Favre is your quarterback.

Packers 27 Seahawks 17

Jacksonville at New England Take a look around and what you will find in some form is how or why the Patriots are going to lose to the Jaguars Saturday night. Look in the Chicago Sun Times. Check out NFL.com. The Los Angeles Times. And of course, the torchbearer, Jeremy Green of ESPN.com. Picking the Jags took form as a trend. Like the inevitability associated with all trends, it’s now so overblown that it’s bordering on ludicrous. Thirty-eight percent of nearly 40,000 voters on ESPN.com are picking the Jaguars. Anyone remember roller blades or starter jackets? In fifteen years you’ll remember the 2007 Jaguars the same way. Faintly. Jacksonville is a tough, run-oriented team with a hard hitting defense, but their secondary cannot contend with the passing attack led by Tom Brady (it couldn’t even protect an 18-point lead against the Steelers). The Patriots have an aging linebacker core that has proven susceptible to the run, which is justifiably a reason for concern. The Jaguars two-headed rushing monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have some success. Anyone expecting more than that is severely underestimating Bill Belichick. Rodney Harrison will be continually stalking the line of scrimmage, ready to blow up runs. The Patriots defensive line is fixing to explode, with Richard Seymour at last healthy and poised to regain his dominant form. Jacksonville will need to score a minimum of four touchdowns to compete with the Patriots, and Belichick’s schemes will force three of those to come from a source other than a score on the ground from a Jags running back. Jacksonville will play with the Patriots for two quarters before getting run out of Foxborough in the second half.

Patriots 34 Jaguars 17

San Diego at Indianapolis By early Sunday afternoon the Colts will be preparing to face the Chargers. A win will put them back in the AFC title game; their nemesis will already be waiting for them, a little less than a thousand miles to the northeast. Don’t expect lack of focus to be a problem for the Colts though. Twice the Chargers and Colts have met in the last three years. Twice the Colts have lost. The first was the fourteenth game of the 2005 season. San Diego waltzed into the RCA Dome and polished the 13-0 Colts, 26-17. The second was two months ago on a Sunday night, when Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions (and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning chip shot field goal). In that game he had only one regular target in his arsenal, Reggie Wayne. On Sunday he should have everyone, most notably Marvin Harrison. The speed of the Chargers linebacker core has been the impetus of the havoc wreaked on Manning the last two meetings. An early heavy dose of Joseph Addai should keep Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips honest. After that Manning will go to work against a spotty San Diego secondary. On the Chargers side, LaDainian Tomlinson stepped up at the biggest point in the game last week against Tennessee, converting a key third down and a scoring an important insurance touchdown late. On Sunday he’ll need something in the neighborhood of 150 total yards and three touchdowns to give his team a chance. One thing to note is that amid all the hoopla surrounding the Patriots this season, the Colts are still the defending champs. Not only will this be a payback game against a team that has gotten the better of them over the last few years, but it will also mark the beginning of Indy’s title defense.

Colts 31 Chargers 20

New York at Dallas This will be the game of the NFC playoffs. Two old school rivals who have battled for a half century but have never met in January. Two rich football traditions that hit hard times over the last decade only to rise again. The two brightest young quarterbacks in the league; one an undersized no-name from Eastern Illinois; the other a kid-brother following a lineage of pioneers at the position. They played their two annual divisional games this year and Dallas won a couple of Texas shootouts. So who will take round three? The team that turns the ball over the fewest times. If Tony Romo and Eli Manning share a common weakness, an Achilles heel if you will, it is their tendency to turn the ball over in bunches. Like most young and talented quarterbacks, Romo and Manning are streaky. Over his last three games Romo has thrown five interceptions to just one touchdown. Eli has tossed six touchdowns and only one pick the last two games, against the Patriots and Bucs. He has also finally started to show an ability to handle a pass rush. So too has Romo, who at times has excelled when flushed from the pocket and been forced to make plays on the move. I expect both quarterbacks to play well, which means this game will end up swinging on the play of the defensive lines. Which pass rush will have the drive and stamina to go all-out for sixty minutes? Which unit will force a season-altering turnover in the fourth quarter to shift the momentum with a berth in a championship on the line? The logical choice is picking the team that’s 2-0 and not 0-2 head to head this season. The safe choice is going with the number one seed at home. Sometimes, however, the smart choice is sticking with the team that’s hot, the quarterback that’s hot. Michael Strahan will come up huge in the fourth quarter and Eli Manning will silence Texas Stadium.

Giants 34 Cowboys 31

Jan 4

3 Comments

NFL Wild Card Preview (plus picks)

Happy New Year. You know what that means. The NFL Playoffs are upon us. The first four of 11 games are set to kick off this weekend, and should mark the beginning of a January for the books. After playing wild card weekend last year, both the Patriots and Colts have reclaimed first round byes and restored balance in the AFC. The pigskin universe awaits another imminent rematch between the arch rivals in the AFC Championship, which will be their fourth playoff joust in the last five years. The NFC has turned back the clock even further. The Cowboys and Packers are the top two seeds again. Combined, the teams went more than two decades without a bye.

It must be noted that if there were ever a downside to the start of postseason football, it’s this year. And it has nothing to do with the game of football. I’m talking about 24. Jack Bauer. The post-playoff power hours. Because of the writers’ strike in Hollywood, 24 was forced to scrap production less than halfway through the season. For the first time in three years there will be no two-hour season premier of 24 coming directly on the heels of a Sunday playoff double header. No Bauer kill counts. No PDA-communiques between Jack and Chloe. No unexpected Tony Almeida returns (if he’s even still alive). What a pity. For the time being we’ll just have to monitor the illicit activity of Jack’s alter ego, Kiefer Sutherland.

(One quick tangent while we’re here. FOX has clearly tried to dupe us all into thinking they still have a killer winter lineup, in spite of the writers’ work stoppage. In lieu of the annual conspicuous 24 plugs and previews–which usually start around Thanksgiving–FOX has substituted Prison Break. I swear, I watched the first season of that show like three years ago and they were one night away from breaking out of prison. It couldn’t even hold my interest then. Now we’re supposed to believe that the fifth half of the first season of Prison Break is really going to quench that singular Jack-thirst? Come on. I’m just waiting for someone with more Hollywood knowledge to expand on the potential consequences of this atrocity. I’ll nominate the Sports Guy. Considering that his wife–in addition to weaning his infant son–is now the proprietor of his weekly NFL picks column, it’s time he gives ESPN a reason not to rename his site, the “Sports Gal’s World”.)

Onto the games this weekend.

Washington at Seattle I won’t deny that two weeks ago I didn’t even see the Redskins making the playoffs. Now they’re riding a surreal wave of momentum (four consecutive wins against the Bears, Giants, Vikings and Cowboys to close out the season) and are certainly not fazed by going into Seattle for a playoff game. Todd Collins (yes the same Todd Collins who hasn’t been heard from since the late ’90s) has been the catalyst (5 TD/0 INT/106.4 rating) of Washington’s run and will have to remain as he has been over the last month: flawless. He’ll also have to lead a team that has been playing emotion-driven football into the toughest road environment for an opposing team, Qwest Field. Given everything that’s transpired with the Skins this year and the stadium they’ll have to conquer in order to advance, I can’t see it happening. The Redskins will make a few vital mental mistakes, mistakes that a playoff hardened quarterback like Matt Hasselbeck will capitalize on.

Seahawks 23 Redskins 17

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh The Jaguars have become the super-trendy pick to not just win a playoff game, not just go into New England in round two and knock off the 16-0 Patriots, but possibly duplicate the 2005 Steelers by winning three road games en route to Super Bowl XLII. Hyping a good, not great team rarely pays off. This is the game I am most torn on, only because of Pittsburgh’s myriad injuries. No Willie Parker. No Max Starks. No Aaron Smith. That’s a Pro Bowl running back and his right tackle as well as the Steelers’ rock on the defensive line, if you’re scoring at home. The Steelers also haven’t looked the same since going up to Foxborough and getting stomped by the Patriots in early December. Since that game they’ve lost two of three, including one against Jacksonville at Heinz Field. What has been forgotten from that game, largely in part because the Jags racked up 224 yards on the ground, is that the Steelers were also able to run the ball (111 yards on only 17 attempts) and that Jacksonville too is without their playmaker up front (Marcus Stroud). Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball with Najeh Davenport. I believe this rematch is going to come down to quarterback play. David Garrard has shown himself to be the ultimate game-manager but Ben Roethlisberger has won a Super Bowl.

Steelers 30 Jaguars 27

New York at Tampa Bay Two teams that entered the final week of the season with nothing to play for. The Bucs used the time to rest key players while the Giants went for broke in a valiant attempt to derail a perfect season. Now the G-Men are a little banged up and the Bucs are healthy. Don’t be deceived though. The Giants are entering this game on an extreme high, a high that is probably unmatched in history by a team having lost its previous game. Tampa, on the other hand, has not looked good of late, losers of three of their last four. So much of the Giants success relies on confidence, specifically the confidence of quarterback Eli Manning. Eli played out of his mind against the Patriots last weekend, tossing four touchdowns and almost leading an upset of the greatest (regular season) team of all time. The Giants defense also feeds off the state of mind of the unpredictable-Manning. They are a tenacious and skilled group, but tend to lose focus when Eli is tossing ducks to the opposing defense and putting them in tough spots. The Giants are a week removed from the first-ever moral victory in the NFL. The odd feeling stemming from that battle left them ultimately unsatisfied, but also hungry for their first playoff win under Tom Coughlin.

Giants 23 Buccaneers 14

Tennessee at San Diego The only game that was in question for the Chargers in their current-six game winning streak was at Tennessee a month ago. The Titans had the Bolts on the ropes, leading 17-3 in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t seal the deal. LaDainian Tomlinson capped off the comeback with a 16-yard touchdown run midway through overtime to lead San Diego to a 23-17 win. To add insult to injury (actually the other way around), Vince Young strained a quad in the Titans’ season finale last week against the Colts. Now there’s a quarterback controversy in Tennessee. Kerry Collins is a better fit for attacking the Chargers defense through the air. Young is obviously the better option on the ground. It won’t really matter. LT has finally been running with the sense of fury and purpose I expected from Week 1. His play of late (602 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the last five games) has proven he’s still stewing over what went down in his house against the Patriots last year. He’s still the best player in the league, and come Sunday evening you’ll know why.

Chargers 34 Titans 20

Here are the rest of my playoff picks.

NFC Divisional Round

Packers over Seahawks

Cowboys over Giants

AFC Divisional Round

Patriots over Steelers

Colts over Chargers

NFC Championship

Packers over Cowboys

AFC Championship

Patriots over Colts

Super Bowl XLII

Patriots over Packers

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