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Panic Time for the Red Sox?

Two questions emerged from the Yankees’ 13-6 pasting of the Red Sox Thursday:

1) Is John Smoltz finished?

2) With the Sox fading fast and the Rays making a push, is it time for some good old-fashioned panic to engulf Boston?

In Smoltz’s case, enough of an answer came Friday, when the Red Sox designated him for assignment, meaning the club has 10 days to trade or release him.  The former would appear highly unlikely, especially after the Yankees destroyed him Thursday.  It’s sad to say, but what team in its right mind would be willing to invest in Smoltz after his performance Thursday night?

As opposed to elements of his previous starts, there was nothing to spin positively after the 42-year-old vet surrendered eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, walking four.  He gave up more runs, walked more batters and lasted fewer innings than any of his other seven starts.

While his velocity and quality of stuff was sufficient throughout his time with Boston — he routinely touched 92 on the radar gun and had some bite on his slider at times — he seemed to have totally lost the art of painting corners.  His pitches weren’t just catching chunks of the plate; they were pretty much going right down the middle.  Which explains why opposing hitters batted .343 against him and sent nearly 15 percent of fly balls out of the yard (Smoltz’s career home run per fly ball rate is 9 percent).

So in a word, yeah, it looks like the last chapter in the illustrious career of John Smoltz has just been written.

With Smoltz gone and the Sox reeling, that leads to the greater issue of when and how much panic should set in.  Considering Tim Wakefield remains out, Dice-K still hasn’t thrown since being shut down, Clay Buchholz is permanently in the rotation (and struggling) and Brad Penny barely passes for a fifth starter, the starting pitching depth — what used to set the Red Sox apart from everyone else — has been reduced to a pair of aces and nothing more.

In the short term, that is a major cause for concern.  The team called up 23-year-old rookie Junichi Tazawa, who has burned through the Minors, posting a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket.  But make no mistake: his callup is a desperation move made out of necessity.  Theo Epstein likely never envisioned having to promote him so soon.

The good news is that the two legit hurlers the Sox boast have become the gold standard for righty/lefty attacks in the game today.  If Josh Beckett handles his business Friday and Jon Lester continues his mastery of the Yanks Sunday night, Boston could salvage a split of the four-game set that began with Smoltz’s train wreck.

The AL East may be lost (it is), but the Red Sox still very much control their own playoff destiny.  Of course, they are going to need a major upgrade in the quality and consistency of pitching down the stretch.

However, as long as they can weather the immediate storm — keep in mind Boston still leads the wild card race by 2 1/2 games over Tampa Bay (is anyone really sweating Texas?) — with September will come a more favorable schedule, along with the returns of a healthier Wakefield and recharged Dice-K.

As opposed to last season, when Beckett was pitching hurt and was thus ineffective in the playoffs, the 2009 Red Sox are built to make a run in October, particularly in a short series against the same Angels team they’ve been bullying around for the last five falls.

Superior starting pitching, a lights-out closer and timely hitting, that is the formula for success in October.  There is no better playoff tandem than Beckett and Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon has not once cracked in the postseason.

So is there cause for panic right now?  Yes, very much so.  But baseball is a long season, and there’s a lot yet to be played.  The Red Sox are going through a tough stretch, but if they can emerge from it without looking up too far at the Rays in the standings, these grueling dog days of summer could end up being vague and distant memories come the early days of autumn.

Sox Machine Keeps Motoring

Has anyone else noticed how machine-like the Red Sox have become?

To this team, obstacles don’t register and negative storylines carry minimal weight.  Losses — when they come — seemingly dissipate into thin air while victories are greeted with little fanfare (like, for instance, any of the eight wins in eight tries they’ve piled up against the Yankees).

The fans still swarm into Fenway and belt out “Sweet Caroline” before the eighth inning, but now more than ever, being associated with the Red Sox is to be part of a world-class enterprise: an impeccably constructed, well-oiled and systematically run baseball machine.

It began last year after the club parted ways with Manny Ramirez, marking a new era within the new era of Red Sox baseball.  Minus the enigmatic and endearing slugger for the first time since the franchise shed it’s long-standing title of choke torchbearers, a severely depleted Sox contingent motored all the way to the seventh game of the American League Championship Series.

The theme of constantly battling the odds — yet feeling next to no effects of them in the big picture — has continued in 2009.

Consider the following:

After losing six of its first eight games, Boston was 3 1/2 games behind Toronto before barely blinking.   That four of those losses came against its two playoff foes from a year ago (Tampa Bay and Anaheim), alarm bells were probably sounding somewhere, but nobody cared to hear them.

Josh Beckett was atrocious in April, logging a 7.22 ERA in five starts.  When a Boston ace gets tuned up in April, it’s typically time to lay into the panic button.  Panic??  Puh-lease.

As poor as Beckett performed early on, he was outdone by Jon Lester.  Their lynchpin in the rotation last year, Lester got abused in six of his first 10 starts.  No worries kid, you’ll get em next time.

How about Theo and the Trio’s $100 million man?  Let’s just say Dice-K’s first stint on the DL was far more productive than all but one of his eight starts.  He’s back on the shelf again, and aside from feeling bad for the guy, is anyone really losing much sleep over his absence?

Then there’s David Ortiz.  The man whose toothy grin and big stick made life after Manny seem manageable.  Still hindered by an injured wrist and knee, Big Papi cranked 10 homers and knocked in 46 runs while slugging .529 in the two months PM (post-Manny) last year.

He assured all he was healthier, hungrier and fitter than ever this spring before coming out of the gates looking like he’d never seen a 92 mph fastball.  After two months, one homer, a .186 average and five different spots in the batting order, “Ortiz” and “release” began floating around in the same sentence.  While Papi has since (thankfully) rediscovered his stroke, the fact remains the Sox skipped not a beat during an extended period of time when their most feared hitter had morphed into the easiest out in baseball.

Throw in Kevin Youkilis landing on the DL after carrying the team (.393-6-20) over the first month and change, Dustin Pedroia running on hot and cold, J.D. Drew’s disappearance from the middle of April through the middle of May, Mike Lowell’s continued recovery from offseason hip surgery, both shortstops getting sidelined … and there’s no way this team could possibly be perched atop the American League today … right?

Well, as the kids are saying: Beleedat.

Indeed, the Red Sox have a four-game lead on the Yankees in the AL East and a three-game advantage over the Tigers for best record in the league.  They’ve stormed back from three and a half down in the division on May 18.  They’ve won five straight series and haven’t lost more than two games in a row since the second week of the season.

They have arms sprouting like dandelions: John Smoltz is here; Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden remain in the pipeline; Daniel Bard mowed down 16 batters in his first 15 appearances as a big leaguer.

Their lineup is gelling; their starting pitching is top-notch; their bullpen is unmatched.  No matter whom Terry Francona sticks in his lineup — from Jason Bay to  Jonathan Van Every — they’ve all produced.

Put it all together and the Red Sox again appear to be on a track leading to and through October.

ESPN has already dubbed Albert Pujols “The Machine” and Cincinnati will always lay claim to “The Big Red Machine”, but is there any denying the Olde Towne Team has transformed into the Olde Towne Machine?

Takahashi Story and Dice-K Thoughts

After lots of networking and prodding, I was given the opportunity to cover a Mets-Phillies game last week for MLB.com.  The story I ended up writing was on Ken Takahashi, the New York relief pitcher who served up the game-winning homer in extra innings to Raul Ibanez.  The link is below.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090612&content_id=5283844&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Coincidentally, Takahashi was one of a few players around when I was in the clubhouse before the game.  He conversed with a Japanese writer for about 20 minutes and passed the rest of the time hanging out with his interpreter.

Until this year, Takahashi had spent 14 seasons pitching for Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan’s Central League.  He was acquired and released by the Blue Jays this spring, at which point the Mets signed him to a Minor League contract.  Since his callup at the beginning of May, he was more or less just another arm in the Mets bullpen.

Outside of closers, relief pitchers go largely unnoticed by the media; they are the linemen of baseball, meaning they typically only garner attention when they screw up.

For Japanese ballplayers in the US, role or stature matters not; be it Ichiro or, well Ken Takahashi, their every move is tracked and dissected by a personal shadow of reporters from back home.  Japan is a baseball rabid culture, and when one of their own makes the move across the Pacific, they are eager to chronicle his progress.

Needless to say, Takahashi was borderline despondent in the clubhouse after the game.  When he spoke to the four or five Japanese reporters, his voice registered as barely more than a whisper; the despair in his eyes needed no translation.  He gave up a game, sure, but he also let down his true fans half a world away.  It was only then that it really hit me what a monumental transition it must be for a player to take such a leap.

In Takahashi’s case, he left everything he knew and entered a situation where all he could relate to was the game itself and the man he entrusted to be his ears and mouth.  Add to that the fact that he’s carrying the weight and expectation of an entire nation that views him as a hero, and you can appreciate the enormous burden that is placed on expatriated ballplayers from our ally in the Pacific.

That got me thinking about Dice-K Matsuzaka, and the struggles he’s endured this season.  This being his third year with the Red Sox, one would assume that he would continue to make strides and enjoy more success.  To the contrary, this has been his poorest campaign yet, as he’s gone 1-4 in seven starts with a 7.55 ERA and .372 batting average against.

While his 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA were moderately deceptive last year (he had a 5.04 BB/9 ratio, was consistently working into deep counts and seemingly always operating with multiple runners on base), he made big improvements from his rookie season, lowering his batting average against from .246 to .211 while cutting in half the number of homers he allowed (25 to 12).

Which brings us back to the World Baseball Classic this past March, when Dice-K led Japan to a defense of its title by going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA while routinely pushing the bounds of the established pitch count limits.  He contended that the bit of extra work — he threw 14 2/3 innings in the tournament — was not the reason he landed on the disabled list with a tired arm in mid-April, and he may be partly right.

When Dustin Pedroia suffered an oblique strain in the WBC and went through a subsequent slump to begin the season, he talked about how it had been difficult playing in such an emotionally charged environment, with so much at stake,  at a time when he was traditionally just resuming everyday baseball activities under the Florida sun.

Fiery and competitive as he is, Pedroia was still just a second baseman on a US team that wasn’t exactly known for bleeding red, white and blue.

Naturally Team USA wanted to win, but let’s not mince words: This side of Cuba, there was no country more emotionally invested in the WBC than Japan.  It is their World Cup and Dice-K is their global superstar.  After his historic performance on the hill in the inaugural tournament in 2006, the pressure for him to perform honorably and succeed only grew greater.

So although physically and in terms of relative pitches thrown, he may not have overextended himself (like he asserted), there is simply no overstating the psychological toll the WBC took on Dice-K.

Boston Ramblings

Heady times in Boston once again.

The Red Sox and Yankees are set to tango at Fenway in their inaugural ’09 series beginning Friday. The Patriots will be on the clock Saturday, as the 2009 NFL Draft fires up. And once the Celtics take care of the Bulls, both the Green and Bruins will be appearing in their respective conference semifinals for the first time since 1992.

A few thoughts about each…

AM I THE only one yearning for an infusion of hate into Sox-Yanks? Isn’t that what made this whole thing the preeminent ongoing sports drama, way back when?

You ask any Red Sox or Yankees fan what they remember most clearly about the rivalry in recent past — apart from The Comeback — and a Boston fan will say Varitek’s Glove in A-Rod’s Face, while a New York fan will recount Pedro’s Body Slam of Zimmer.  These enduring images characterized and defined the rivalry, made it drop-everything, must-see television 19 or 26 times annually.  ESPN and Fox salivated all over it.  Passionate followers cleared their schedules and did everything they could to score the hottest ticket in town.  Casual fans tuned in because, hell, anything could happen.  No matter who you were, Red Sox-Yankees always found a way to find you.

Nowadays?  The media outlets aren’t nearly as enthralled, which is largely a reflection of popular sentiment.  And quite frankly, it’s because they have barely anything to hype.  The big storyline going into this weekend surrounds Joba Chamberlain and David Ortiz.  Joba, who has thrown at Kevin Youkilis on a few occasions, was called out by Big Papi, if you can even classify it as such.  Ortiz basically said that since Joba has shown head-hunting proclivities, he’s going to find it difficult to gain respect throughout the league.  (His comments contained almost as much vitriol as a certain drive-by argument…)

Would it be that out of line if Big Papi had said something just a tad more incendiary, to you know, send a message? I for one would love to see Joba hurl some chin music at Ortiz, watch Papi step out of the box and tell Joba to watch his corn-fed behind, then blast one into the center field bleachers.

IT’S PRETTY MUCH impossible to predict what the Patriots will do come draft day, which is why it’s so much fun tossing around various conspiracy theories.  Using the last two drafts as indicators, there’s truly no telling what Bill Belichick is up to.

Two years ago, the Randy Moss-to-New England rumors had come and gone before the draft, yet Belichick pulled a cat of out a hat in New York and in came Moss for (even at the time) a laughable fourth-round pick.  And a year ago, clearly deviating from his track record of only selecting linemen high in the first round, Belichick traded down from the seventh to tenth overall pick and selected linebacker Jerod Mayo.

While the possibility of Julius Peppers becoming a Patriot has been declared dead for all intents and purposes, it is for that very reason that it could still be alive.  When Peter King reports that New England is looking to trade its first-round and a second-round pick to move into the low top 10, but professes to have little idea as to why, the theories are free to fly.

All that’s for sure are the following facts: 1) New England was initially offering a second-round pick for Peppers, which was not enough, 2) Having shored up their secondary (signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and running game (Fred Taylor), the outside linebacker position is the Patriots’ only glaring weakness, 3) A low top 10 pick is an excellent bargaining chip, given the caliber of talent available there, as well as the slightly smaller financial obligation necessary to sign the player.

If Peter King doesn’t have a bead on what the Patriots will do, it’s legitimately anyone’s guess.  But that’s what makes following Belichick’s moves on draft day so intriguing.

THE CELTICS WERE the champs again on Thursday night in Chicago.  After a pair of scintillating games at the Garden that could have gone either way, Paul Pierce took command of Game 3 from the outset and the Celtics defense suffocated the suddenly overmatched Bulls all night.

Even with Kevin Garnett on the bench in a suit, it was a vintage performance from the Green on the defensive end, as they held Chicago to under 41 percent shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  For the first time in the series, Pierce played like the best player on the court.  And Rajon Rondo, who battled to a stalemate with Derrick Rose in Boston, took decisive control of the point guard showdown, racking up 20 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals.

This series may still be extended — Chicago was 28-13 at home before Thursday — but for the Bulls, there’s ultimately no recovering from such a colossal beatdown in their own building.  Especially against the champs.

I HAVE NEVER written about the Bruins, because 1) I don’t know enough about hockey to throw my weight around, and 2) the Bruins have done nothing but disappoint for a very long time.  They infamously blew a 3-1 series lead against Montreal as the No. 1 seed in 2004, then attempted to reverse the script last year as the underdog, before falling to the Habs in seven.

All I remember from last year’s playoffs was how a few choice Boston crackpots decided to beat up visiting Montreal fans leaving the Garden.  It was an unnecessary and classless thing to do, though it paled in comparison to the disgraceful act staged by Canadiens fans before Game 3 Monday in Montreal: booing the American national anthem.

It was fitting that the Bruins proceeded to snuff out Montreal’s season with a pair of systematic thrashings, while formalizing a tidy four-game sweep in which Boston outscored the Habs 17-6.   I can officially say I’m back on the bandwagon, and am eagerly anticipating the Bruins’ projected second-round matchup with the New York Rangers.

To bring this rambling column full circle:  Maybe a little Bruins-Rangers is just what the doctored ordered for a suffering Boston-New York rivalry.

(Unless of course Joba decides to throw one behind Big Papi Friday night.)

Red Sox Preseason Report Card

The 2008 Red Sox were a deep and balanced team that fell just shy of the World Series.  If it weren’t for some big-time pitching from Matt Garza and David Price in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Rays, the Sox probably would have hung their third pennant in five years.

Understanding how close they had come, the Boston front office entered the offseason with the intention of shoring up the gaping hole in the middle of the lineup left by Manny Ramirez.  They dutifully pursued Mark Teixeira, only to be dissed at the last moment.

With the big prize off the market, Theo Epstein took a page from the Patriots handbook, signing a handful of veterans (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli) — undervalued by their former teams for various reasons — to modest and incentive-laden deals.  These new faces have fortified the established nucleus from last year’s 101-win team.

As Opening Day 2009 inches closer, the Red Sox will begin the season with an even deeper squad than a year ago.  Let’s hand out some preseason grades.

Starting Pitching: A-minus

Led by the emergence of Jon Lester, the starting pitching was solid last year, with two caveats: Josh Beckett was not the Cy Young-caliber ace he had been in 2007, and there was never an established fifth starter.

As everyone knows, Beckett battled a strained oblique that dogged him repeatedly late last season.  That injury appears to be old news, as Beckett started more games (7) and logged more innings (27 2/3) than any other Sox hurler this spring.  He says he feels good, and his spring numbers (2-0, 3.25 ERA) back up the claim.  Beckett will be the Opening Day starter and looks poised to regain his status as staff ace.

As for the fifth slot in the rotation, there is nothing short of a logjam, which is excellent news.  Brad Penny is set to get the nod on April 12, the first day the team will need a fifth starter.  Penny is fresh off his best outing in a year, having repeatedly exhibited the mid-90s heat that propelled him to consecutive All-Star games in 2006-07.  If Penny returns to form, the Sox will have the best starting staff in baseball.

To illustrate the quality and depth of the Boston rotation, consider these points: Justin Masterson is fully capable of starting, Clay Buchholz gave up a total of seven earned runs in 25 innings this spring (and will begin the season in Triple-A), and John Smoltz is anxiously waiting in the wings.  If all goes well, let’s just say the team is fortunate that Tim Wakefield is such a good sport.

Bullpen: A-minus

Top closer in the game?  Check.  Dominant setup man capable of closing?  Check.  Multiple middle and long relief options?  Check.  Situation-specific matchup relievers?  Check.  Roger that.  Bullpen is a go.

While it all begins and ends with Jonathan Papelbon, technically it only ends with him when talking about the myriad arms that will be available to Terry Francona this year.  Given the rocks in the rotation, it’s fair to assume Tito will be consistently bridging no more than the seventh and eighth innings to Papelbon.  And on the rare occasion that a starter gets lit up, a mop-up man will not be necessary.

At his disposal will be mainstays Masterson, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, each of whom can fulfill a variety of roles — including long relief.  Add to them newcomers Ramon Ramirez (likely a matchup guy) and Saito (who, if healthy, will be among the filthiest setup men in baseball), and toss in a lefty specialist (Javier Lopez), and voila!  Quite a dynamic stable out in the ‘pen for Tito to mix and match at his discretion.

Offense: B

It’s no secret that the Red Sox will find it difficult to approach the 845 runs they scored last year, third-most in baseball.  While fans have become accustomed to watching them cross the plate in droves (they’ve averaged 892 runs a season over the last six years), the ’09 Red Sox offense will revolve around smart baserunning and timely hitting.

And of course, health.

Assuming David Ortiz plays something close to a full season, and Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew avoid long stints on the DL, the lineup will have sufficient pop.

The evolution of Jacoby Ellsbury will continue and Dustin Pedroia should post similar numbers to his MVP season of a year ago (with a slight decline in the power categories).  Concerns have been voiced about the bottom of the lineup, but as it stands now, Jason Bay, Jason Varitek and Jed Lowrie will round out the lower third of the batting order. Bay is a five or six hitter in most lineups, and Lowrie tore it up this spring (.349, 11 extra-base hits).  That leaves Varitek as the only easy out in the order.

Again, operating under the assumption that the offense can avoid a catastrophic blow, this should be a unit that can plate something in the neighborhood of 800 runs.

Defense: A-minus

With a .986 team fielding percentage, the 2008 Red Sox tied for tops in the league with the Blue Jays and Yankees.  They committed 85 errors, two more than New York and one more than Toronto.

This year the defense projects to be even better.  In the outfield, Ellsbury now has a full year in center under his belt, and an entire season of Bay in left will be an obvious upgrade from Manny (notably on the road).

Every infielder has captured at least one Gold Glove, except for Lowrie, who committed only two errors in 97 games last year while boasting a sterling .992 fielding percentage.

Overall Preseason Grade: B-plus

As shown, the 2009 Red Sox are a loaded team.  There are indeed concerns about the middle of the order, but in this day and age, it’s all about pitching, pitching, pitching.

Considering the number and quality of arms on their pitching staff, the Red Sox should have no problem winning 90-plus games and returning to the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven years.

Red Sox Spring Storylines

Spring Training is in full swing for the Red Sox down in Fort Myers, but the vibe this year is different from past seasons.

Since spring storylines have traditionally revolved around Manny Ramirez this decade, the lack of all things Manny has cast a calm over camp.

If you recall, Spring Training 2008 was brief and full of headlines.  The Red Sox were defending champions and preparing for the Japan trip.  This spring it’s pretty much the opposite.  A year after kicking off the regular season historically early (March 25), Opening Day ’09 will not come until April 6 because of the World Baseball Classic.

Additionally, with five key players (Dice-K, David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia) participating in the WBC for four different countries, Fort Myers is missing many familiar faces.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t issues warranting close monitoring.  Be sure to keep an eye on the following storylines, in Florida and around the world, as the new season approaches.

The health of J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell It’s not worth mincing words: the Red Sox offense cannot survive another pair of injury-plagued and thus underperformed seasons from Drew and Lowell.  Last year the two missed a combined 102 games, but their losses were mitigated by Manny’s production and career years from Pedroia and Youkilis.  With Manny gone and it being unrealistic to project Pedroia and Youk to match their production from a year ago, the team is staking the middle of the lineup on two guys with health concerns.  How Drew responds to a cortisonal shot in his lower back and how Lowell recovers from offseason hip surgery are issues of great concern.  Let’s put it this way: if come June, Terry Francona’s lineup card has a six-through-nine of Rocco Baldelli/Brad Wilkerson, Mark Kotsay, Jason Varitek and Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will be in serious trouble.

The Papelbon setup crew The only thing resembling a closer controversy Francona has dealt with in recent past is when and how often to summon his stopper.  Ever since a shoulder injury forced the team to shut Papelbon down at the end of the 2006 season, the goal was to reduce the amount and length of his appearances.  The problem last year was Tito didn’t have a go-to guy in the eighth inning until Justin Masterson emerged late in the season.  Manny Delcarmen was constantly battling himself and Hideki Okajima finally started getting figured out by the opposition.  With Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA, .222 BAA in 2008) and Takashi Saito (career 1.95 ERA and .182 BAA) on board to bolster an already strong bullpen, Francona should be able to shave about 10 appearances off the 67 Papelbon logged in ’08.

Josh Beckett’s body language Beckett has far too much pride to ever let on about an injury, which is why he took so much heat down the stretch last year amid a sustained stretch of mediocrity.  The guy simply won’t admit to being hurt (which he was).  The best indicator of how he’s feeling is to watch him on the mound and in the clubhouse.  When he’s wearing that understated scowl and breaking off biting curves to complement his gas, then colorfully and curtly addressing reporters after outings, that’s when you know Beckett is right.  All signs point to him being healthy and ready to replicate his dominant 2007 season.  That’s what the Sox need.

David Ortiz’s WBC performance If Drew and Lowell are vital to the success of the offense, Ortiz is paramount.  Something in the neighborhood of a .300/35/115 season is necessary from Big Papi in order for the top-heavy Boston lineup to push across enough runs to consistently win ballgames.  He reported to Spring Training in great shape and was talking the talk.  He’ll be playing first base in the WBC for the Dominican Republic, which will give him an opportunity to showcase what he claims to be a healthy knee.  Yet obviously the focus will be on his left wrist and how — if at all — it will impact his swing at the plate.  After the least productive and most injury-riddled year of his career with the Red Sox, Ortiz wants to make a statement.  Over the next four weeks, as he dons the colors of his country, Big Papi should provide a clear picture of what he’ll be toting into the batters box in ’09.

Keeping Smoltz in perspective Patience, everyone.  Yes, John Smoltz as a Red Sox is a tantalizing prospect.  His presence early in the season is by no means integral to the identity of the team, however.  The Sox have six viable starters (Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Wakefield, Penny, Masterson) entering the campaign, and as much as everyone wants to see Smoltz firing away from the Fenway rubber, there’s no reason to rush things.  If the last five years have taught us anything, it’s that the Red Sox are perennial contenders and must accordingly have the big picture in mind.  Smoltz’s 15 postseason wins and 2.65 career postseason ERA are all one needs when taking into account the end game of winning a title.  For the time being it’s best to view Smoltz as a guaranteed midseason acquistion.

Woulda Been: The ’08 Sox

Well it stomped and it growled after rising from the dead, made a valiant last stand on wounded hind legs … but in the end the mighty beast succumbed…

Four score minus one year ago, the Philadelphia Athletics erased an eight-run deficit to best the Cubs in the fourth game of the 1929 World Series. Almost 79 years to the date, because of what went down at Fenway Park in the fifth game of the 2008 ALCS, there are now two distinct returns to the Google search, “Red Sox greatest comeback in history”.

That, folks, is something to behold.

Face it, we were all doing something else by the middle of the seventh inning of Game 5. The TV might have been on, but the Sox were trailing by seven and the Rays had been cranking balls out of Fenway in a fashion unseen since a certain 19-8 thrashing that precipitated the other distinct return to that Google search.

The champs were cooked, and after another October rife with west coast start times and extra-inning heart-pounders, bleary Red Sox Nation was exhausted.

We had accepted — albeit begrudgingly — our fate. Just wasn’t going to happen this year. Papi was some combination of confused, frustrated (though he hates the word) and hurt. Lowell was done for the season. Ellsbury had lost it. Beckett was obviously pitching through a nearly or completely torn oblique muscle. Dice-K and Lester simply couldn’t shoulder all the weight being thrust upon them by Beckett. The old war horses, Varitek and Wakefield, were guaranteed disasters any time their number was called.

With seven outs before the final bell of the ’08 season, in a seven-run — 7-0!! — game, the most promising post-title Red Sox campaign since pre-World War I was going up in smoke. Check that, was engulfed in flames. It was painful and angering to watch them go down like that, in their house, but understandable given the odds they faced.

Wasn’t our year…

Then, just as that notion was settling into the heads of Nationers far and wide, the Fenway magic found its way back. For everyone in the place, while it may have once again come out of nowhere, the disappearing act the Sox pulled was nothing new. It was the Rays who had little idea that the trick itself — the Red Sox making imminent defeat vanish — was an old habit of this team within the confines of this funky ballyard.

It began with Trot Nixon in 2003, when the Moneyball A’s couldn’t seal the deal in Game 3 of the ALDS, and Nixon made them pay with an 11th inning shot that helped prolong a season.

With that stroke and the formal reverse sweep that followed, a franchise whose losing had been nothing short of Shakespearean for 85 years established a new calling card: the Comeback card. It was a card the hardened Sox would play again in ’04, with Ortiz, Schilling and Lowe leading the way to salvation. Then it reappeared in ’07, this time in the form of Drew, Beckett, Pedroia and Papelbon.

That it happened once more was exhilarating for a city already looking ahead to the Celtics and utterly tragic for another wide-eyed and shell-shocked opponent. That Beckett channeled Schilling in a gutsy, palpably painful Game 6 (is there any other such thing for the Sox in the ALCS?) to force a winner-take-all (Red Sox translation: It’s already over) Game 7 is equal parts inspiring and unbelievable.

Let’s give credit where credit is due, though. Those upstart Rays, who likely believed the Devil had gotten back into them after Games 5 and 6, hunkered down and squared up this new incarnation of Red Sox mystique. They did what the Yankees and Indians could not. They stared down and defeated the incomprehensible force.

Wasn’t our year…

But wait. Had Game 5 gone by the wayside and the final entry in the ’08 Red Sox log had read, “Swept three straight at Fenway, out in five in ALCS”, discontent would have briefly ruled the airwaves and journals in Beantown, but rational thought would have ultimately prevailed.

That’s not what happened though. Game 5 wasn’t the final fizzle of a fatigued, broken down and fragmented contingent. It turned into an epic display of resilience and a reassertion of an otherwise farcical and cliched mentality (“Never say die”) that desperate teams adopt in their darkest hour. The Sox, on the other hand, simply breathe life into the fiction. Since Nixon’s walkoff, they are 12-3 in elimination games.

In a town like Boston, second-guessing after a major sports loss is like familial beef during the holidays: No matter what, it’s gonna happen. The question is whether or not it’s unfounded.

Sure, questions about the makeup and drive of the team would have dominated had they gone out in a five-game whimper. Slowly, however, the masses would’ve realized that the climb out of a huge hole in a league championship series is actually less challenging than attempting to win in the ruthless month of October as a team in tatters.

Yet here we are, just a few million New England heartbeats removed from almost experiencing both.

Now there’s a cause for discontent. Between 2003 and this year, the Nation knows all too well how minute the difference can be between winning and losing a decisive game. Against the Yankees in 2003, the faithful will always rightfully believe that sure triumph was snatched away by a man who never picked up a bat and rarely touched the ball, save for when he was passing it from one pitcher to the next.

Versus the Rays, victory was just as close and it was taken just as unceremoniously. Except this time it was the general manager, not the manager, who made the strategic gaffe. And this time it was during the season, not at the climax of the penultimate series, that the fatal move was executed. You know where I’m going with this.

It must be pointed out that Manny Ramirez just completed the greatest individual postseason in the history of baseball. He reached base in 24 of his 36 at-bats, slugged four homers, knocked in 10 runs and compiled a 1.747 OPS. His .520 average, .667 on-base percentage and mind-blowing OPS were all records. (By my unofficial count there were 10 teams in 2008 whose top two hitters didn’t have a combined OPS of 1.747.)

Now I hate to break the news to you, but Manny didn’t do that because he hates Boston. He didn’t do it (solely) because he desires one last monster contract. He may have morphed into the puppet of Scott Boras off the field and to the media, but between the lines Manny will always be mashing Manny. He logged the most impressive October all-time because he’s maybe the greatest October hitter in the history of baseball.

Not coincidentally, his best work has come in the seven league championship series’ he’s participated in (.340/.451/12 homers/30 RBIs in 44 games), making him undeniably the greatest LCS hitter ever. And not surprisingly, the pennant round of the playoffs has been the deciding series of every significant Sox playoff run.

Second-guessing is second nature in Boston, so chew on this. In Game 7 the Red Sox were given a glimmer of hope down 3-1 in the top of the eighth inning when Jason Bartlett booted a grounder off the bat of Alex Cora. A Coco Crisp single and Dustin Pedroia fly out had runners on first and second with one out. Papi was up.

(One quick tangent: There’s no doubt Ortiz has physically been a shell of himself this year, but it’s impossible to quantify the psychological effect Manny’s absence has had on the man we used to call Senor Octubre. Think about it. Every time he stepped to the plate for the better part of six years, he saw in his periphery one of the three best right-handed hitters in the history of the game swinging a fungo bat and stretching out his guns. It wasn’t only the opposition mulling over this dire reality. Manny’s presence unequivocally fueled Papi. The alternative argument is who’s to say what a fully healthy Ortiz would have produced down the stretch and into the playoffs — sans Manny — but let’s be real. He would’ve stood a much greater chance if his bash brother was chilling in the on-deck circle waiting to pick him up when necessary.)

So just like ’03 and ’04, the fate of the Red Sox rested on the broad shoulders of David Ortiz. He grounded out. Youkilis walked. Drew struck out. And for all intents and purposes the season was finished.

Anyone who believes that Manny wouldn’t have smoked a screamer into the gap and won the pennant, or that Ortiz, feeling wholly confident and focused, wouldn’t have again assumed the role of hero has no sense of history. Or chemistry for that matter.

The claim in July was that Manny had poisoned the clubhouse chemistry, but we’ll never know for sure. It’s pretty obvious in hindsight that the vital Papi/Manny chemistry was unilaterally removed at the trade deadline, and conspicuously absent when Theo, the trio, Tito and the Nation needed it most.

Because of that there’s about to be another offseason of pondering what coulda, shoulda been in Boston had they held onto Mr. Mercurial.

Scratch that. What woulda been.

See Ya Manny, So Long Dynasty

I received a text from a friend the night before the trade deadline when it looked like Manny Ramirez was headed to South Florida to join the Marlins. The text read: “Worried yet?”

My response: “They won’t do it. Not with a dynasty on the line.”

(One of the great sports debates is what constitutes a dynasty. It’s clearly a subjective interpretation of greatness. In this scribe’s opinion a team must win back-to-back titles plus another one within a few years, which is to say any franchise that wins three out of five championships is worthy of some manifestation of the term “dynasty”. A banner in 2008 would mean three out of five for the Sox.)

So my rationale was the Red Sox brass would not threaten what is at least arguably a potential dynasty in the making, particularly given that David Ortiz spent a significant period of time on the shelf and the team didn’t fade.

Given that Josh Beckett is fixing to turn it up, that Dice-K has been far from the liability most believed he would be this year and Jon Lester is the second-best lefty in the American League.

Given that Jonathan Papelbon is still the surest thing this side of Mariano Rivera when it comes to closing games in October.

Given that the most prolific offensive tandem since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig was intact again for the first time since it co-slugged its way to a second World Series in four years.

Given that cumulatively this team was unequivocally gearing up for another title run.

I didn’t think it would happen because I’ve come to understand the whims of this ownership. John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino have personalized the experience of being a Red Sox fan because they themselves are Red Sox fans — ones who happen to be ridiculously wealthy businessmen who assumed control of the enterprise.

Too often in sports business and figures detract from what is ultimately best for a team. With Manny’s eight-year, $160 million deal, it was at times a wise business move for the ownership to remove all those dollars from its weighty payroll. Hence irrevocable waivers in 2003, a busted trade for Alex Rodriguez in 2004, and annual deadline talks with the Mets’ Omar Minaya about a Manny move to Flushing.

In all instances, getting rid of Manny was the smart business move, the best for the bottom line. But Theo Epstein — acting on behalf of the trio — abstained from ever pulling the string because of one prevailing reason: The guy was too damned good and too vital to the most important end of winning. Winning superseded personal relationships. Winning supplanted smart business.

To this ownership, winning mattered most. And in pennant races and pursuits of October glory, Ramirez behind Ortiz gave the Red Sox a decisive inside track to victory.

I’ll be frank: Manny has always been a pain in the rear (to put it gently) through the eyes of ownership and his colleagues. It was just always kept more or less under wraps, in that Manny for the most part squawked privately and off the record, which meant only bits and pieces were divulged.

I’m sorry, but it’s no coincidence that the historically publicly soft-spoken Manny signed with Scott Boras before (essentially) a contract year — the Red Sox held two $20 million club options for 2009 and 2010 on Ramirez — then proceeded to start voicing all the displeasures he’s traditionally voiced behind the scenes directly to the media.

Boras, who’s likely still peeved at the Red Sox for holding him hostage two summers ago over the Dice-K contract, saw the perfect opportunity to turn the tables on the only contingent to have gotten the better of him at the negotiating table.

He knew that unleashing the Manny circus on the public would force the hand of the club, force them to 1) pay monetarily to get rid of Manny (which they have, $7 million), 2) dispose of him for seventy cents on the dollar (which they did, for Jason Bay), and 3) line Manny up to get shown the money come this offseason (which if I were a betting man…).

Done and done. And just like that the Manny Ramirez era came to a prompt conclusion in Boston.

What truly perplexes me is the fact that lots of fans and writers are on board with the move. Proponents of the trade would point to the fact that Manny’s bullheadedness was tearing the team apart from the inside, that his antics have been far worse this year than in the past.

Not true.

Manny has always been Manny. To the fans and outside world he was frequently endearing, quirky and warm, while behind closed doors he was consistently self-centered, obstinate and vexing. Bottom line is he has forever lived in Manny World, in spite of everyone around him — be it media, teammates or bosses.

(If you’re not convinced, pick up Seth Mnookin’s Feeding the Monster. It is the single most illuminating piece of writing about Manny and the organization.)

Due to that longstanding discord it was obvious that Manny and Boston would part ways after this season. After finishing what unofficially kicked off in 2003, the most prosperous era in Red Sox history. Like it or not, like him or not, the Red Sox with Manny Ramirez were most sufficiently primed to defend a World Series crown for the first time in nearly a century.

Debating team chemistry, managing motives and money is moot. Through everything that has gone down in the last week, only two facts have emerged: 1) The Red Sox are a decidedly worse team today than they were on the morning of July 31, 2008, and 2) If they should get there, the Red Sox will be a far less intimidating force in October than they were in ’04 or ’07.

Don’t believe me?

Just ask any Angels or Yankees fan.

Manny’s Still Manny

Someone needs to pass Manny the memo. You know, the one that tells him how not every long fly ball he hits is going out of the park, ending a game, and moving the Red Sox one step closer to a World Series.

Ever since his walk-off home run in Game 2 of the ALDS, Manny has found it necessary to watch the ball travel — even if it’s not traveling into four-bagger territory.

Since that bomb off Francisco Rodriguez, Manny has become Narcissus reincarnated. However, instead of falling in love with his own reflection, he falls in love with each deep drive he strikes.

Crack! goes the bat on the ball. Only then does he spring to life. His body language is as clear as the sky is blue. Oh the beauty! The power! The elegance! Oh Manny!

Manny’s eyes–with a little help from the arms usually raised over his head–say it all. He is in awe of, enamored by and totally smitten with his God-given and rediscovered stroke. He simply can’t get enough of it.

The opposition kind of already has, though.

Only four games have elapsed this season, and Manny has twice stood in the batters box to gaze at and admire not home runs. The trend began in Japan, when Manny launched a go-ahead two-run double in the top of the 10th inning against Oakland. Thing was, he thought it was destined to be a three-run homer, and stood in the batters box, watching as it … didn’t clear the fence. But hey, the hit still proved to be the game winner.

When he replicated the act in the final game of the same series back in Oakland, it wasn’t as well received. Mainly because the ball was caught. That’s right. Manny–standing proud and erect at home plate–watched a ball get caught.

Of course that finality only further fueled the ensuing comedy, as Manny trekked back to the dugout and, through giggles, tried to explain to David Ortiz et al how he really thought that one was gone. He gestured and illustrated and justified, while getting poked fun at by his teammates through it all. Anyone watching had a laugh.

You know who didn’t? The Yankees. Be assured that new Yanks skipper Joe Girardi is both aware of and not amused by Manuel’s antics.

The whole Red Sox-Yankees thing has become watered down the last few years, mainly because the intensity/hatred that festered between the teams during the 2003-04 heyday no longer exists. The relocations of Pedro Martinez and Gary Sheffield have had a lot do with that.

Remember the so called “market correction” of a few years back? Well I have a feeling that this year we may be in store for a “rivalry correction”.

Girardi has brought a new mentality to the Bronx — or brought back an old mentality perhaps. Whichever way you look at it, the Bombers are the one team that will not sit back and watch the Red Sox show them up. Joba Chamberlain proved as much last September, when he nearly shaved the beard off Kevin Youkilis’ chin with some high and inside heat. And this spring Girardi showed he was prepared to get down and dirty when he (likely) ordered Shelley Duncan to slide cleat-first into the nether-region of Rays second basemen Akinori Iwamura. The result was a classy Grapefruit League dustup.

Taking that into consideration, along with Boston beginning defense of its second title in four years, we may be looking at Sox-Yanks redux in 2008.

Plus there’s Manny. The guy’s loving life and swinging a sweet tune at the plate once again.

As for that memo? It could say a million different things, but all that really matters is Manny’s still Manny.

Five Red Sox Topics to Discuss

Spring Training has barely gotten under way for the world champs in Fort Myers and there are already many questions coming to the forefront. Among them…

Coco vs. Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury will be patrolling the Fenway triangle for the next ten years. You can take that to the bank. If the Sox brass ultimately wouldn’t package him for Johan Santana, he’s not going anywhere for a long time. The question now becomes what to do with Coco Crisp. For a guy who inspired very little confidence at the plate last year, Crisp was nothing short of mesmerizing as the Red Sox center fielder in 2007. The catch he made to formally clinch the pennant and ease an otherwise rough ALCS was a fitting summation of his ’07 season: almost nothing offensively but a savior in center. Ideally for Coco and the Red Sox, both he and Ellsbury start hot this spring. That will enable Ellsbury to ensure Terry Francona and Theo Epstein that he is ready to be the man at the top of the order (as if hitting .353 down the stretch and .438 in the World Series without even qualifying as a rookie wasn’t enough). Coco will be able to earn the starting job he wants (and deserves). And Theo will be in good selling position. Dealing Coco and a mid-level prospect of his choice would probably be enough to get a number two or three starter (Joe Blanton?) in return.

Extension for Francona?

He took over for a guy who had made the most egregious managerial blunder in Red Sox history. He arrived in a historically wounded baseball city that was at the time stuck in a collective coma. He entered a baseball atmosphere where he wasn’t being counted on to win, he wasn’t expected to win, he absolutely, positively had to win. The livelihood of a Nation was at stake. And he did it. He managed the first team to ever climb out of an 0-3 hole. He led the first group of world champion Red Sox in 86 years. Then he did it all over again two seasons later. Tito will get his extension and it will be a significant pay raise from the $1.65 million he was paid in 2007. Theo and the Trio know it’s a small price to pay to the man who has struck the right notes with his players and delivered the goods.

Manny being Manny?

Manny was the first to admit that he wasn’t Manny all last season. However, he figured things out in the playoffs. He hasn’t forgotten about his very ordinary ’07 regular season though, which broke a streak of nine-consecutive 30+ home run/100+ RBI campaigns. In response to the first average season of his career, he changed his offseason workout regimen, opting to train at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona. He reported for spring training on time (no sideshows or car shows). And when he volunteered his time to reporters in Fort Myers, he professed his love for Boston and desire to end his career as a Red Sox. Is it a coincidence that Manny’s eight-year, $160 million contract expires after this season? Or that he has two exercisable option years at $20 million a pop? Is anything a coincidence with Manny? He said he would gladly trade his stats from last year for the ring he won, but don’t interpret that as his being content with a sub par output in 2007. As for 2008? “I’m just gonna go play the game, man,” he said. “Whatever happens, happens.” That’s probably as close to a verbal forewarning as we’ll ever receive from Manuel.

Will Dice-K turn it up?

This time last year was Dice-mania. All of the focus was on catering to Dice-K and trying to do everything possible to make a monumental transition manageable. All and all the cultural adjustment was ameliorated by the dogged efforts of the Red Sox front office. They brought in specialized trainers, translators and chefs for Dice-K. They expanded the clubhouse to accommodate the Japanese beat writer contingent. John Farrell, the Red Sox pitching coach, studied Japanese. Jason Varitek put in countless hours getting to know the tendencies and intricacies of his new battery mate. And that’s only scratching the surface. Dice-K’s first season in America ended up reflecting that period of adjustment. He showed an ability to overwhelm MLB hitters with his array of stuff and biting fastball. But his control was a major issue and prevented him from consistently going deep into ballgames. Too often his inability to find the strike zone forced him to go away from his secondary pitches. This year he will have the chance to concentrate more on working with Varitek and less on assimilating to daily life half a world away from his home.

Drew year two?

Two things are certain. 1) J.D. Drew grossly underachieved in his first year as a Red Sox; he was a $14 million mess for five months, and 2) He made up for it all with a single swing of the bat. There is no player in my lifetime who endured more scrutiny only to end up being heralded as a hero. Until J.D. Drew. So what should we expect in his second season? More of the Drew we saw last September and October. It’s apparent he had difficulty making the transition to the most critical sports town in the country. He also dealt with an illness to his son throughout the ’07 season. But he came through when it mattered and he has that, in addition to the worst possible first year in a Sox uniform, under his belt. If he can avoid significant injury, expect a nice bounce-back year in 2008 for the guy who struck the $14 million grand slam.