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Sox-Yanks and 24 Points

Have times ever changed. Tonight the Red Sox and Yankees renew their rivalry on ESPN while the two hour season finale of “24” runs simultaneously on Fox. If this were three years ago I would be beside myself. I would be angered at the level of my own excitement, because, of course I would be mired in a serious conundrum.

24 or Sox-Yanks? Jack or Pedro? Kingsley or Jeter? Since this kind of dilemma occurred annually from 2003-05, I got used to biting the bullet and taping 24, because Sox-Yanks was just too riveting to miss.

These days the “rivalry” is watered down to the point where one run games are the anomaly as opposed to the norm, and the singular buzz that used to surround every series ceases to be. Sure, they still attract wild amounts of fans and media and play the occasional fantastic game. For the most part though, the matchups have assumed the feeling of just another baseball game, and not yet another chapter in the ongoing saga of the Red Sox and Yankees. There hasn’t been a brawl since ’04, hasn’t even been a game so induced with emotion and passion that Derek Jeter has seen fit to charge into the stands to procure an out.

Simply stated, there hasn’t been a general, steadfast refusal to lose on the part of the players. That goes for both sides. Just look at recent history. Last year the Red Sox allowed the Yankees to come into Fenway in the middle of August in a pennant race, and disrobe them. Five straight? Excuse me? Then at the beginning of this season the Yankees watched, wide-eyed, as the Red Sox came from behind in three straight games at Fenway before getting smacked down in two of three the next weekend at the Stadium.

It’s almost as if the rivalry has turned into a give and take of touché. Humiliated at Fenway? Props Yanks. Toyed with at Yankee Stadium? Too-freakin-shay Sox.

Sorry but this would have never happened in the ’03-’05 heyday because those teams so mutually abhorred the prospect of defeat at the expense of the other that they would scratch and claw with everything they had to avoid that outcome. During that period if you took a sample size of any 12 consecutive games one team would have six wins and the other would have six wins. Game times would average almost five hours. The games themselves would average a good deal more than nine innings. Box and line scores would be irrelevant. Hell, there was only so much Sportscenter could do. Unless you were a part of it, the Sox-Yanks experience, you couldn’t do it justice. There was no such thing as the casual or outside observer; the magnitude of the thing wouldn’t allow it.

It used to be the same with 24. From 2002-04 every Tuesday night from 9-10 pm was specially reserved for another sixty-minute slice of Jack Bauer’s harrowing day. The audience was niche and the plots were taboo. The humanity of Jack was still a concept and not a punchline. The twists were unforgettable and the endings were groundbreaking. The purpose of the show was to present an adversarial point of view and run with it, even walk the fine line of subversion. It was timely, relevant, and realistic in a grisly way only achievable post-9/11.

Above all though, it was novel. No longer. Like anything in the entertainment realm, once it became too widespread it was doomed. Doomed to be ruled by the dollar and not the novelty. And let’s face it, when the first three seasons revolve around an elaborate assassination plot, a cohort of oil giants using Islamic extremists to detonate a nuke in LA to boost business, and the dispensing of a gruesome and deadly virus on innocents, there’s only so much horror to explore.

Then there’s Jack. Originally a Federal Agent-turned man apart, the character has become so banal that there are actually betting lines on the over/under on the number of his kills in any given episode. What used to be a unique narrative about a man struggling to salvage a few ions of humanity while fighting evil has turned into the Jack Bauer power hour. The questions surrounding season finales used to be along the lines of how is Jack going to save his wife and daughter? Or how is Jack going to prevent a school full of children from being attacked? And most importantly, will the hour end with Jack’s death?

Three seasons later, I’ve stopped asking those questions. Jack won’t die because Fox won’t let him. He’s too lucrative. Not to mention so uniquely lethal. Tonight, the question is something like how many Chinese and/or Russians and/or family members is Jack going to off in his latest blaze of glory? This is the question I ask myself, and in the same breath, who’s going to win, Red Sox or Yankees? On both accounts am I eager to discover the answer? Of course. Will I watch and be entertained? Naturally.

But will it ever be like it the old days again? With 24, not a chance. The show is now just another franchise, so if you want a real taste of it buy the DVDs of any or all of the first three seasons. The verdict is still out on Sox-Yanks because we do have a-now-three-years-pending ALCS rubber match to tackle, but that’s a long ways off.

In the meantime I’ll stake my rep on “over 11” for Jack tonight.’

NCAA Championship Softball

Hofstra played host to one of the sixteen NCAA Regionals the weekend of May 20th. I covered the the Friday and Sunday games for CSTV.com

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-softbl/stories/051807abz.html

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-softbl/stories/052007abf.html

Magic Sox Points

Okay, I’ve held off long enough. It’s time to write my “Red Sox are really freaking good” column. So here goes…

It’s May 14 and the old town club has an eight game lead over that team bombing in the Bronx. The good guys are currently on pace to win 112 games, and they just walked off at Fenway for the first time this season in most emphatic fashion.

And I missed it.

Being a Sunday game that was initially billed as Josh Beckett’s chance to stick his name next to Babe Ruth’s in the record books, this was the one that all of Red Sox Nation was tuned into.

Everyone except moi. At the precise moment when Julio Lugo was sliding into first base I was on a Long Island Railroad train returning from covering NCAA Lacrosse.

No worries though. In the words of the legendary-Tony Montana: “Isssoh-kay.”

In the two minutes or so that the train was underground in Brooklyn I received a barrage of texts and voicemails, and I pretty much got the gist. With a game like that, though, you really had to have watched it to capture it. In other words I couldn’t write about the game and offer a whole lot to my passionate and knowledgeable Sox-readership.

So in place of filling you in on my experience watching “Baseball Tonight” after the game (which was AWESOME), I will instead take you back to the last time the Sox overcame a five-run deficit in the ninth inning, because I was there.

April 10, 1998. Home opener against the Seattle Mariners. I was in the right-center field bleachers with my mom. The Red Sox were down 7-2 heading into the last of the ninth and Fenway had emptied. But I knew something most didn’t.

The worst closer the Red Sox ever had, Heathcliff Slocumb, had finally been dealt in 1997. While he was traded for two unknowns named Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe (a whole other column in itself), the Nation was both ecstatic and relieved just to hear he was out of town for good. I happened to know where the trade had spit him out, and to my delight on that fateful afternoon at the ballyard, he popped up in the most glorious of places: the Seattle bullpen.

With the bleachers almost barren he was fortunate enough to have one obnoxious little 14-year old boldly reminiscing about days past while he attempted to get loose on a brisk April afternoon turning to dusk.

To this day I still don’t know why Lou Piniella made the decision to bring Slocumb in for the ninth. But if Sweet Lou is anything, he’s a manager who’s not afraid to throw a player to the wolves if he feels like he’ll learn something from it. He probably calculated that a five-run lead at Fenway on Opening Day was the perfect combination of leeway and pending-disaster for him to get a legitimate look at his new “closer”.

What resulted was a complete catastrophe as Slocumb took the mound with no control and even less composure. He scattered a few singles around a few hit batsmen without recording an out. I’m pretty sure he hit Nomar to force in a run, making the game 7-5 with still nobody out and Mo Vaughn on deck. By this time the undersized concourses and slim alleyways were more populated than the cramped seats in the old ballpark. People were literally trying to cram their way back in.

Lou then pulled the plug on Heathcliff (and his career). He summoned Paul Spoljaric who promptly gave up a mammoth-walk off grand slam to the “Hit Dawg”, which soared over my left shoulder and disappeared into the right field grandstands.

To my knowledge there is no YouTube clip of this home run, but there should be. And should it surface you will see a brief shot of a kid jumping onto the fence between the visitors bullpen and the bleachers, hands violently waving over his head, as the ball carries into the blue wood-paneled seats in right.

And if someone ever tracks down the Channel 56 news reel from that night, amid the bedlam in the tunnel underneath the stadium a skinny kid in braces will appear from the left and in the next shot will have a mic in his face, belting out some version of: “I LOVE HEATHCLIFF!!!! THANK YOU HEATHCLIFF!!!!!! YOU’RE THE BEST!!!!!!!!”

I look back at that day as a defining moment. I grew up watching and loving the Red Sox, but that game marked the first time when I convinced myself that “this is the year”. The Pedro-acquisition had certainly helped reinforce that belief, but it was Mo Vaughn who made me really, truly believe.

Coming back to the present there’s no way anyone within the Nation would classify Sunday’s surreal victory as an illuminating, perception-altering moment, because the whole “this is the year” thing simply doesn’t apply anymore (see: 2004). Neither does one ridiculous comeback give off the collective impression that the ’07 Sox are suddenly the comeback kids (again, see: 2004). That’s the whole purpose of a “precedent”.

2004 and precedents aside, this 2007 Red Sox team is rapidly turning into something special, just not in the way we were expecting.

What if I had told you in March that on May 14, 1) Manny would be hitting .250, 2) J.D. Drew would have 12 RBIs…in 34 games, and 3) Dice-K would have an ERA of nearly five. Now would that be something you might have been interested in? I think not. In fact if you were privy to that info before the season started all you would’ve been interested in would be showing up at Scott Boras Headquarters with a blowtorch. But I digress.

Yes, Manny is still Manny. Dice-K is still getting acclimated, and is a self-proclaimed slow-starter (a phrase he now knows in multiple languages since meeting Manny). And Drew, well, Drew still gives as much of a hoot when he’s sucking as he does when he’s productive. Which is to say either way he doesn’t seem to care too much, so at least we don’t have to worry about this slump getting him down.

Point is, maybe we should all take a page from J.D.’s book of caring, because who really gives a crap about stats when the Sox are 25-11, eight games up, and only gaining steam? Not I.

All we should care about is that this team is gelling and it’s already adopted an identity, something I didn’t think would be possible to even start fathoming until mid-summer. But it’s happened, and it’s happened without some of the big-money new guys contributing much on the field. That’s fine by me because they are clearly chipping in what’s necessary for this team.

For Dice, and J.D., and even Julio Lugo, the numbers will come in time. (The Sox play 81 games at Fenway, remember?) All we need to concern ourselves with right now is that these guys are having fun, playing great baseball, and could care less about where they stand statistically in the league rankings.

Throw in a game like Sunday at the Fens and that’s when you know it’s a good time to be a Red Sox fan.

Hofstra-Hopkins

Hofstra’s season came to an end against Johns Hopkins in the first round of the NCAA Women’s Lacrosse Championship. Read about one of the all-time great women’s lax players, Mary Key, on CSTV.com

 

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-lacros/stories/051307aas.html

Hofstra Champs

The Hofstra women’s lacrosse team capped off a storybook season by capturing its first CAA championship. Read about the big win on CSTV.com before Hofstra takes the field in the NCAA tournament.

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-lacros/stories/050607aax.html

Hofstra Lacrosse

My much-anticipated update on the Hofstra women’s lacrosse team has been published on CSTV.com.

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-lacros/stories/050207aas.html

Multi-Points

So much is happening in the world of sports that I’d have to write five pieces to adequately address everything that’s gone down in the past week. But that would take a long time and I don’t get paid for this (yet).

A quick recap. First the Red Sox swept the Yankees at Fenway. Then the Bulls scorched the Heat in four, making Miami the weakest defending champion in decades. Next the Sox proceeded to take two of three at Yankee Stadium. Then the Patriots traded a signed-Tom Brady jersey to Al Davis for Randy Moss (actually it was a fourth round pick). Finally the week concluded with the Golden State Warriors winning Game 4 against Dallas, to go up 3-1 against the defending-Western Conference champions.

What does all that mean? Well most relevantly it means my NBA Playoff Preview Part Deux has officially been “deaded” quicker than Turtle’s record deal with Saigon on “Entourage”. It also means I now have the chance to throw my two cents on all of it…


Yankees
The Yankees have suffered through slow starts before (they were 9-13 two years ago) but what strikes me about this April is that without A-Rod the Bombers wouldn’t have won more than five games. Because with him they still only won nine!! That’s embarrassing. Just how embarrassing is anyone’s guess. But if you want to find out for yourself, and you happen to have the pleasure of being chummy with a New York fan, ask them what’s worse: watching A-Rod’s most prolific-April in history result in a record of 9-14 or living through a 5-18 start, which evidently would have been the case minus A-Rod’s superhuman effort early on. I say the latter’s less humiliating, because the Yanks starting staff is ravaged and Mariano Rivera always struggles out of the gate, so Yankee fans would at least have a viable (albeit weak) excuse for such a sputtering start. But with A-Rod hitting more home runs than some divisions over the first half of the month, to win nine out of twenty three games is just poor.


Red Sox
I can count on one hand the number of players in the game today who are capable of carrying their teams for a stretch of time all by their lonesome: Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez (honorable mention: Vlad Guerrero, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran). Here’s my point: look at what A-Rod has done in comparison to what Manny has done until this juncture. Now extrapolate that s**t. Yankee fans love noting how “it’s only April”. Well for Manny April represents the calm before the storm. While A-Rod’s .355-14-34-1.297 has been the respirator on which the whole Yankees-organization is breathing, Manny’s .202-3-13-.629 has been nothing short of a comical farce. Why? Because the Red Sox have taken five of six from New York and have the best record in baseball. Manny, meanwhile, has contributed little more than a few bombs and a couple goofy exchanges with Dice-K. We all know that as the weather warms up so too does Manuel Ramirez. (Makes that 6.5 game lead seem a little more imposing, doesn’t it?)


Randy Moss
Let’s make something clear right away: the Patriots don’t need Randy Moss. In the months subsequent to their collapse in the AFC Championship they signed the deep threat (Dante Stallworth) they so desperately needed, a big and physical possession receiver (Kelley Washington), and a slot-specialist (Wes Welker). Those acquisitions supplemented a receiving core that proved to be nearly sufficient enough to return to the Super Bowl. So when the opportunity arose to pull Moss out of Oakland for nothing more than a fourth round draft pick, Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli probably said, why not? Then they met with Moss, and most assuredly laid down the law cut and dry. Something along the lines of if you come here and work like every other guy on this team, you’re going to win a Super Bowl. Anything less and you’ll be out on your rear end quicker than you could ever imagine. The knock on Randy Moss has always been his incessant and inherent selfishness. Now he has the opportunity to tie his personal legacy into that of the most successful franchise of this era. Here’s one vote saying Randy chooses the Patriot-way over the highway.


Mavs-Warriors
Forget the 67 wins in the regular season. Twenty percent of the Mavs’ 15 losses came against the Warriors. (That’s three.) And frankly they look exactly like the team that last June stood by, in shock and awe, as the Heat took four straight from them in the Finals. Which is to say they’re playing scared. And timid. Playing the Warriors period was already the worst-case scenario for Dallas. It’s rapidly becoming a worst-case nightmare. Including playoffs, Golden State has now taken a whopping nine of the last 11 from Dallas. The Warriors’ coach, Don Nelson, knows all of Dirk Nowitzki’s secrets. And their fans are genuinely intimidating. So how exactly are the Mavs going to pull off three straight and avoid becoming the biggest fraud in NBA history? Don’t ask me. Optimists will point to last year as the Suns climbed out of a 3-1 hole to down the Lakers. The parallels end there. The weight on the shoulders of the Mavs is immense. Between their implosion in the Finals last year to dominating the entire league but Golden State this season, the Mavs are going to have to overcome history and reality. (Plus Stephen “Haymaker” Jackson.)

Finally, a few notes on imminent Eastern Conference second round matchups…

Nets-Cavs This Nets team is pretty much on par with the New Jersey teams that went to back to back NBA Finals a few years ago. Difference is the rest of the Eastern Conference was god-awful back then. No more will Jason Kidd win multiple playoff series’ by leading the fastbreak and tossing alleys to Richard Jefferson. The Nets reign as the most hard-nosed defensive team in the East has long passed. Simply put, anything the Nets can do Lebron can do better. Shoot. Pass. Defend. All advantage Lebron. He’ll ultimatley need a true wingman to take the next step, that much is known. But for the moment Lebron won’t have too many problems disposing of a team that recently has taken nothing but steps back.

Bulls-Pistons The Pistons exhausted their nitrous way too prematurely last year. For a team that already understood the grind of winning an NBA title, Detroit burned itself out in the 2005-06 regular season (64-18), had to dig itself out of a 3-2 hole just to defeat King James in the second round of the playoffs, then bowed to the Heat in the East Finals. I know what you’re thinking. To say the Bulls are hot after watching what they did to the defending champs would be like saying an ice-bath is cool. And yes, Ben Wallace did get the better of his old team during the regular season, but don’t let that fool you. Chicago is still maturing, and this season Detroit has adapted its mentality to that of a team expecting to win a championship.

Division II Lacrosse Special

Here are two pieces I wrote about the top two DII lacrosse teams in the country. Published on CSTV.com, the first is about #1 Mercyhurst, the second is on #2 NY Tech .

http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-lacros/stories/042407aaf.html

http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-lacros/stories/042407aae.html

NBA Playoff Preview ‘07

Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!

Awake yet? Have a nice snooze through the 2006-07 NBA season? Good. Now splash some water on your face and prepare yourself for some real basketball. Dwyane Wade is back. Lebron James cares about the game again. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson are finally clicking. Tim Duncan is one lumbering step away from meeting a referee in the parking lot to settle a few things. And barring a Black Sox-esque fix, the embarrassing and over-documented tanking that defined this season will be permanently relegated to the rear view.

Plus the Warriors are in the playoffs!!

See, good news all around.

Since we, as fans, are fixated with rankings, I’ve decided to rank the NBA playoff teams, from worst to first, in order of how they will fare in the upcoming second season of basketball. Following is the first half of that list…

Gone real fast

16. Orlando Magic Every couple of years the Magic slip and slide their way into the seventh or eighth seed in the East only to be completely dismantled. The last such occurrence came in 2003 against Detroit. Tracy McGrady actually led the Magic to a 3-1 advantage in that series before the Pistons locked down and took a methodical three straight, reinventing themselves as the new age “Bad Boys”. Since then they’ve seemed to take pleasure in falling behind in the playoffs only to come storming back against mortified opponents. In my opinion getting swept is actually less humiliating than having an adversary spot you a game or two just so they can mop the floor with you the next four nights. If I’m the Magic, I say, thanks but no thanks, just do what you came here to do, Chauncey. Quick and painless exit for Orlando this year…

15. Washington Wizards Not a whole lot to say here. The season-ending injury to Gilbert Arenas prevented the most-hyped rematch from a year ago from really taking place. True, the Wizards and Cavs will meet in the first round again, but there will be no need for Lebron to drive the baseline for an epic game-winner; no need to walk to the free throw line and ice Gilbert Arenas in Game 6. Nope, without Agent Zero in uniform there won’t be multiple one-point thrillers, nor a pulsating-Game 6. There won’t even be a Game 5. Sorry, Wiz.


Upset early

14. Toronto Raptors 47 wins versus 41 wins. That’s all that justifies the notion that Toronto losing to New Jersey is an upset. So the Raptors won six more games than the Nets and have home-court advantage. Woohoo. Nothing against the Raptors, they are a solid youth-infused team led by a true star in the making, Chris Bosh. Had Chicago beaten New Jersey on the last night of the season the Raptors would have been facing Washington in the first round, and I would have been congratulating Toronto on its first playoff series win since this guy named Vince Carter. Which reminds me…Vinsanity anyone?

Not like last year

13. Los Angeles Lakers Kobe and the Lakers were peaking at this time last season, and surged out to a 3-1 series lead in the first round against Phoenix. Then Steve Nash got angry and the Lakers got juvenile. No matter what, it went down as the most compelling opening round tilt, as the Suns prevailed in seven. This year Kobe has had to drop 40 a game just to keep LA from crumbling down the stretch. Coupled with Amare Stoudemire’s presence in the rematch I don’t see the Lakers winning more than a game this time around. Plus, after three grueling seven game series in the West last year, the Suns now understand they can’t fool around in Round One.

Back…ever-so-quickly

12. Utah Jazz Mainstays in the playoffs during the days of Malone and Stockton, the Jazz had been slowly fading away the last few years. Snatching Carlos Boozer from the Cavs and drafting Deron Williams has helped the Jazz undergo a massive transformation, resulting in 51 wins and another division title to hang in the Delta Center. This will be a team to reckon with for years to come, but in 2007 they have to face a very hungry-Houston team. Both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming have been patiently awaiting this opportunity for years. The time may be soon for the Jazz, but it’s now for the Rockets.

Formidable first foe

11. Golden State Warriors Lots of intrigue and mystery associated with the Warriors. Here’s what we know: a) Golden State hasn’t been in the playoffs since 1993, b) they are 16-5 over their last 21 games, with Al Harrington making a huge impact once settling in after his trade from Indiana, c) they have won five of the last six games against Dallas, including all three this year, and d) they are playing with absolutely nothing to lose. Question is, how many times can they down the Mavs in the postseason. I say twice. If so, that’s not good news for the defending Western Conference Champs.

Going the distance

10. Denver Nuggets Melo and AI. AI and Melo. It always sounded right, didn’t it? Well now it’s starting to look right as well. No one thought it would be easy, not with Melo suspended for AI’s first month with the Nuggets, not with the marked transition it was going to be for these two megastars to coexist and thrive. Well of late, they’ve done just that. Winners of 10 of 11 entering postseason play, Denver is primed for another run at San Antonio. The Spurs are notorious for slowing teams down, but they’ve never had to reckon with Iverson in the playoffs. Ladies and gentleman, your first Game 7 of the 2007 NBA Playoffs will take place Sunday, May 6th, in San Antonio.

9. Chicago Bulls Beat New Jersey once, avoid Cleveland, Miami, and Detroit until the Eastern Conference Finals. That was the scenario for the Bulls on the last night of the ’07 campaign, and they failed. Now they have to face the defending champs in Round One, and would theoretically have to beat both Detroit and Cleveland to advance to the NBA Finals. But that’s not going to happen. They blew their chance. Can’t mess with karma. In the case of the Bulls karma will be coming in the form of an unrelenting Shaq-diesel, then a crushing dagger from Dwyane Wade in Game 7 of the most thrilling series we’ll see in the first round.

That’s all for now. I’m off to watch the Greatest Rivalry in Sports, aka Sox-Yanks. Back with the rest next week…

MLB Fantasy Points

MLB General Managers look at the season in three two-month increments. They spend April and May evaluating what they’ve put together and discovering if their team can be a contender. June and July are periods of assessment; GM’s of losing teams assess what kind of prospects they could receive upon dealing a big-name player while GM’s of winning teams try to target that missing piece that will hopefully put their club over the top. For this reason the majority of trades happen in July because at that point a GM knows for sure whether he’s going to be a buyer or seller. After the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, teams are either in it to win it or to play spoiler. (Although since the inception of the wild card many more teams have at least a theoretical shot at the playoffs much deeper into the season.) In sum, it is very rare to see a major trade consummated in the springtime unless it is in response to a key player sustaining a major injury.

So what, you might say, not tellin me anything I don’t already know. Fair enough. Here’s my question: why do so many fantasy owners see fit to wheel and deal so early in the season? The purpose of a fantasy league is to be your own GM, right? Don’t you put together a team that you believe will compete for the long haul? Why not emulate the guys getting paid tons of money to run baseball franchises? They allegedly know what they’re doing, and assuredly know more than we do, so it’s worth using their template.

Of course the biggest difference between GM’s and fantasy GM’s is that the real ones are constructing teams that can win baseball games whereas their fantasy counterparts are trying to amass the best cumulative statistics. Wins versus stats: an age-old paradigm that frequently pits the selfless against the selfish. Here’s the problem, though. Having a “good clubhouse guy” on your fantasy squad means squat. All fantasy owners are inherently (and justifiably) interested in only one thing: statistics.

Baseball is a sport told by numbers. By virtue of the length of season and intricacies of the game, not to mention the myriad of ways to statistically interpret production, baseball relies more on stats than any other sport. However, as complex as the game is, it is also quite simplistic. One guy throws, one guy hits, again and again. Because of this, it’s a game that revolves heavily around the law of averages. The element of repetition is prevalent, and most relevant to my argument. For example, if you flip a coin ten times, it could quite realistically land heads seven of those times. That would give you a 70% rate of heads. Flip that coin five hundred more times and I guarantee the rate of heads will be right around 50%. That may not be enlightening, but it is the law of averages.

Let’s relate that to baseball. Take a look at the current stats of three players, who for the moment shall remain anonymous.

Player A- .234, 0 HR, 1 RBI
Player B- .200, 0 HR, 6 RBI
Player C- .212, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Now, look at the stats of these three players.

Player D- .370, 2 HR, 11 RBI
Player E- .343, 6 HR, 10 RBI
Player F- .412, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Obviously anyone with rudimentary knowledge of baseball could look at these stats and say with complete certainty that Players A, B, and C are all worth trading for Players D, E, and F. In fact, the numbers would indicate that any fantasy owner who didn’t come to that conclusion must be a little thick in the head. Or just a real baseball junkie who knows that Player A is actually Alfonso Soriano, Player B Manny Ramirez, and Player C Travis Hafner. Three of the premier sluggers in the game today, whose numbers currently pale in comparison to the likes of Player D (Aaron Hill), Player E (Ian Kinsler), and Player F (Orlando Hudson).

Hey, no knock to Hill, Kinsler, and the O-Dog (who is finally living up to his ridiculously cool nickname). These guys have all had explosive first two weeks, and just might continue their bashing through the summer. However history would tell me that Soriano, Manny, and Hafner will all be fine. The law of averages has my back here too. For the purposes of this context the ole law states quite simply, that Hill, Kinsler, and Hudson will inevitably slow down and those other three will most definitely turn it on, and soon. (You know, water seeks its level…or something like that.)

Back to the main point. If you consider yourself a knowledgeable baseball fan and participated in your league’s draft (and did so with no identifiable mental black outs), there is simply no reason to make a big trade this early in the season. Chances are you have one of those three struggling, blue-chip superstars on your team. (If not one of them then someone in the class of Gary Sheffield, Mark Teixeira, or Lance Berkman, all of whom are presently enduring prolonged troubles at the plate.) So basically one of your top picks is not only performing poorly, but is actually skewing the entire statistical breakdown of your squad. A detriment at the moment? Absolutely. In the long run? Not in the least bit.

Real-life GM’s give their teams two months on average to develop an identity before making possible personnel decisions. And believe me, their concerns are far more serious than pondering what Manny and Hafner’s final 2007 stat-line will look like. So why shouldn’t we use the same philosophy? As fantasy owners, we all have our core of carefully selected blue-chippers to complement a handful of very good players and a couple of handpicked sleepers. That’s a fantasy baseball team. In my opinion it’s a crime to start tinkering with that entity so early in the season, when some of your stars are actually hindering the output of your team. I for one can say Manny probably won’t get the flip a coin ten times, flip it five hundred times thing, but that sure as hell won’t stop the law of averages from applying to the big fella.

So here’s my advice: take a hard look at your squad. If today, you feel it’s not as good as it was two weeks ago, and you haven’t sustained any major injuries, making a blockbuster trade isn’t the right move. Trying to get a refund on that twin you dropped probably is.