Ballgame's Points

Nov 13

NFL Headlines and Week 11 Picks

I’m never been big on headlines but what the hell, I feel like breaking from tradition. So before dishing out Week 11 picks, here are a trio of underappreciated stories that are bound to become major headlines as the 2008 season plays out.

Colts have Titans feeling the heat!

This is more about Indy than it is Tennessee. The Titans have the AFC South and home field throughout the playoffs sewn up. However, four of their next six games are losable. Ranging from a grudge match (at Jacksonville, Sunday) to a trip game (at Houston, 12/14), not to mention a pair of wars to be waged in the trenches (vs. Jets, 11/23 and vs. Steelers, 12/21), the mettle of the Titans will be tested. And retested. This may be the last unbeaten team still standing, but history will not repeat itself. Tennessee has the look of a solid 13-win squad. Nothing more.

Now let’s consider the Colts. If Bill Belichick doesn’t squander his timeouts two weeks ago, the Colts season is over and for the first time since the NFL realigned Peyton Manning is golfing in January (or watching Eli from the sky box, but we’ll get to that). Instead, a rejuvenated Peyton has led Indy to back-to-back victories over his arch rivals, the Patriots and Steelers. Suddenly the Colts are 5-4, with some swagger. Their toughest matchup over the next five weeks is the Chargers, who as Charles Barkley would gladly point out, are simply turrrible. It’s not inconceivable that they tear through that stretch and head into Week 16 sitting at 10-4. If the Titans start sputtering — which they will — out of the blue you’ll start hearing about a Week 17 “showdown” between the Colts and Titans. A game, mind you, that no one even knew existed in November.

One thing history has taught us is to respect the Colts more when they’re supposedly less (see: 2006).

BYE the way, 11 wins will do it in AFC

Here’s a fun fact. Since the NFL realigned into four divisions per conference beginning with the 2002 campaign, the recipient of the second bye in the AFC has finished with at least 13 wins every year except the inaugural ’02 season. That’s five years running that it’s taken a grueling 13 victories to earn the right to win one home game and play with a Super Bowl on the line. However, every so often the AFC softens (get it?) and 11 wins becomes the magic number. This is one of those years, chiefly because the NFC East has feasted on its brother conference (6-2 record) and the AFC West has been arguably the biggest collective embarrassment the league has seen this decade.

Which brings us to Thursday night, when the 6-3 Jets will meet the 6-3 Patriots, with the winner gaining the inside track to not only the AFC East title, but that crucial second bye. It can’t be sufficiently stressed what a luxury it is for teams to be able to scout potential opponents from the comfort of their homes one week, then host a squad that has just emerged from a fierce playoff battle the next week. There is no more significant postseason advantage in sports. That’s essentially what the Pats and Jets are playing for Thursday. The winner will be 7-3 and competing with the Steelers and Ravens (both 6-3) for that no-longer-so-elusive second bye.

Patriots, Jets, Steelers and Ravens. First to 11 wins … wins.

Giants looking flat-out Patriotic

Dating back to the playoffs, the Giants are 12-1 over their last 13 games. Though it’s not just all the wins they’ve piled up that has them drawing comparisons to the old Patriots, it’s the adaptive brand of football they’ve established. The same brand that launched the 2003-04 Patriots to 32 of 34 including consecutive Super Bowls. As exhilarating as they were to watch last year, the 18-0 Patriots had a quarterback who was never touched and a defense that was never really tested. The Giants, on the other hand, had grown accustomed to adapting to their given opponent, keeping games tight, and excelling in crunch time.

Like the three-time champion Patriots — and as opposed to the 18-0 outfit — the Giants are frequently in close games and can beat you in a variety of ways. Shootouts? Yup, they’ll put points on the board when necessary. Defensive affairs? Look no further than their wins over the Redskins and Steelers this year. Come-from-behind triumphs? Ask Cincinnati (or New England …). The G-Men are nearly impossible to beat because they control both sides of the line of scrimmage and limit their mental mistakes. They have a defense that bends at times, but consistently makes the one huge play required to preserve victory (like last Sunday night in Philly). And then there’s the quarterback, who it seems, is always at his best when the game is on the line. Sound familiar? It should.

Indeed, the Giants hijacked the blueprint of the Patriots dynasty, stuffed it in their face last February, and are poised to use it to become the first repeat champion since New England.

(Please allow me a second to wipe the tears off my keyboard.)

Thanks. Here are the Week 11 Picks (Home Teams in CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets

ATLANTA over Denver

Philadelphia over CINCINNATI

GREEN BAY over Chicago

INDIANAPOLIS over Houston

New Orleans over KANSAS CITY

MIAMI over Oakland

NY GIANTS over Baltimore

TAMPA BAY over Minnesota

CAROLINA over Detroit

SAN FRANCISCO over St. Louis

Arizona over SEATTLE

JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee

PITTSBURGH over San Diego

WASHINGTON over Dallas

BUFFALO over Cleveland

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 92-51

Nov 8

Week 10 Power Poll and Picks

At the midway point of the 2008 season, the NFC boasts three of the top five teams, and six of the top ten. See how it all shakes out in the newest power poll.

1. Tennessee Titans (8-0) Titans keep grinding out victories but will need another Music City Miracle if they want to run the table — as some are already boldly predicting.

2. New York Giants (7-1) Champs patiently waiting for Tennessee to get bumped so they can reclaim rightful status as number one.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) With the presidential election serving as a backdrop, the reborn Steelers made a statement on Monday night against the Redskins.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-2) Panthers go into their bye coming off solid home victories versus the Saints and Cardinals.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) If they beat the Giants on Sunday night, Eagles become the presumptive favorite in the NFC.

6. Washington Redskins (6-3) Skins will look to regroup during bye week after taking a pounding from Pittsburgh.

7. New England Patriots (5-3) They’re … still … here …

8. New York Jets (5-3) Rock-solid win in Buffalo set the stage for divisional showdown with Patriots on Thursday night.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) Losing to a bad Cowboys team before nearly falling to a hapless Chiefs outfit indicate Bucs are going in the wrong direction.

10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) Five of last eight games are at home — where Matt Ryan’s Falcons are unbeaten. Can you say NFC sleeper?

Week 10 Picks (Home Teams in CAPS)

ATLANTA over New Orleans

Tennessee over CHICAGO

MIAMI over Seattle

Jacksonville over DETROIT

NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo

Green Bay over MINNESOTA

HOUSTON over Baltimore

NY JETS over St. Louis

PITTSBURGH over Indianapolis

Carolina over OAKLAND

PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City

ARIZONA over San Francisco

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 83-47

Nov 5

2 Comments

Obama’s In, Cassel’s On His Way

I have never used this website as a political forum, nor do I intend to, but after President-elect Barack Obama’s historic and decisive victory Tuesday night, at the very least I must congratulate my fair city of Boston on it’s seventh major title this decade. This one we can share with the rest of the country.

Speaking of something that at one time seemed highly implausible but has slowly gained steam, let’s talk about the Patriots and their quest for a sixth consecutive AFC East crown.

It’s there for the taking folks, and the steady improvement of Matt Cassel is the reason why.

After a disappointing trip to Indy, we’ll get the negative out of the way first. The Patriots had that game in hand and blew it. Jabar Gaffney blew it by dropping what should have been the defining touchdown pass of the Cassel era thus far.

Bill Belichick blew it by wasting his timeouts. He gave away one on an awful challenge of the number of Colts on the field that would have resulted in a measly five yards if upheld. And he surrendered the team’s last game stoppage when he apparently second-guessed himself after keeping the offense on the field on a fourth and 1 late in the game, trailing 15-12. He sprinted up the sideline in pursuit of the line judge as Cassel appeared to get the first down and was rewarded the timeout retroactively.

David Thomas also had a hand in the demise, as he was whistled for an unnecessary roughness penalty that turned a third and 1 into a third and 16 on New England’s final drive. Unfortunately, because Coach Bill had no timeouts remaining, he couldn’t challenge the spot of the ball before the penalty — which replay indicated might have been a foot or so short of where BenJarvus Green-Ellis actually landed. That could have been the difference between the doomed third and 16 and a far more manageable first and 25.

Mental and strategic mishaps notwithstanding, the Patriots looked good on a national stage against a desperate rival. They had an excellent gameplan — which was centered around keeping the ball away from Peyton Manning — and executed it to near-perfection. The defense did an admirable job of slowing a Colts offense with its full arsenal of weapons. Most important, Cassel was exemplary in leading the offense.

Each week he looks more confident and makes stronger throws. He’s starting to read defenses, as evidenced by his recognizing and calling out the blitzers on a critical third and 8 at the beginning of the four quarter. After alerting the offensive line of where the pressure was coming from, he dropped back and delivered a dart to Randy Moss on a quick slant for a first down.

Cassel is also seeing more of the field. On a third and 4 in the second quarter, after surveying the middle of the field and seeing nothing, he found Gaffney — his third option — on an 11-yard sideline out pattern. Simply put, he’s beginning to understand how to take command of the offense. While he’ll never have the pocket presence of Tom Brady (who does?), he’s more mobile than Brady and has used that mobility to his advantage (34 rushes for 101 yards on the season).

It’s clear that the coaching staff is using the Brady schematic from 2001 to bring the new guy along. Most of what they’ve had him do has been safe and conservative — basic screens, check down passes, quick outs and hooks — but slowly they’re integrating some bolder plays. The gaffed-Gaffney play (a would-be 39-yard touchdown strike that Cassel put in a perfect place on the sideline at the five-yard line) was a glimpse of a what could become a more prolific air attack as he continues to progress.

There’s no doubt Cassel has the arm to get the ball downfield. He’s now starting to show the poise required to do so on a more regular basis, which should soon be paying dividends given the ongoing presence of one Randy Moss.

Again, to underscore the path Cassel is taking right now, look at the numbers from his first half-season: 67 percent completion percentage, 1566 yards, 7 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 83.4 quarterback rating. That means his projected final stats would be something in the neighborhood of 3300 yards, 16 touchdowns, 12 picks and a rating around 85 (assuming he improves a bit).

Brady’s first season? 2843 yards, 63.6 completion percentage, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 86.5. Obviously Brady entered another realm beginning in the fourth quarter of the Oakland game in the playoffs, but it’s indisputable that Belichick is using the same system to hone Cassel as he did Brady. Whether or not that translates to victories in the postseason remains to be seen. But the Pats have positioned themselves to be there, yet again, and this time without the league MVP. That’s pretty special.

Looking at the AFC East — which is cumulatively as strong as it’s been throughout the Patriots’ reign — it’s evident New England has an opportunity to deal some serious blows to its divisional rivals in the coming games. Over the next three weeks they’ll host Buffalo (5-3) and the Jets (5-3) before traveling to Miami (4-4) for a revenge match with the Dolphins. Two wins will put them at 7-4 with a 3-2 record in the division, and assure them of holding first place going into the stretch run.

Considering how the defense has plugged holes in the secondary and stayed an elite unit, and how the coaching staff has craftily worked around the losses of its top three running backs while bringing along a new field general, it’s starting to look like a throwback year in Foxborough.

Implausible as it may have once seemed, Cassel’s Patriots could well be on their way to an AFC East title.

YES WE CAN!

Oct 30

2 Comments

NBA Preview 2009

What do we know after two days of the 2008-09 NBA season? We know the Celtics are going to defend the EFFING hell out of the crown as the Lebrons plot their coup. We know the Lakers are the biggest and deepest team in the league. And we know the Suns and Spurs are old. Really old. Like almost as old as Greg Oden. (Was that too soon?)

Oh yeah, and we know that the day David Stern doesn’t get universally booed on site is the day he’s perfected that nifty mind control device he’s been working on. Something tells me it’ll be ready to go by draft night in New York next summer. Stay tuned.

Alas, aside from those truths much is yet to be decided, and with reason. That’s why they play the games, duh.

So sparing you further malarkey, here is the official BG NBA Preview ’09. Since my team is the defending champs after years of being the defending lottery losers, this preview will concentrate strictly on actual title contenders.

(Bear in mind I called the Celtics to win 58 games and make the Finals last year when most “prominent” “writers” with “readerships” had them as a four or five seed in the East. I guess while you’re at it, strike from the record my pick of the Knicks as a playoff team …)

Here we go.

Eastern Conference

The Favorite: Boston Celtics

They were thrown together last year as part of Danny Ainge’s personal science experiment. The basketball world waited for Paul Pierce to demand more shots, for Kevin Garnett to shrink on the biggest stage of his life, for Ray Allen’s ankles to detach from his calves. It anticipated their demise after they dropped three games a piece to Zaza Pachulia’s Hawks and Bron’s Cavs, except that fourth loss never came. Now, for the 17th time in franchise history the Celts are the returning champs. If you watched Pierce during the banner raising ceremony or have watched Garnett at all throughout his career, do you honestly believe this team is satiated? Their original goal was to restore the pride, which they did. Their new goal is to stamp a collective legacy and do something that not even the original Big Three was able to accomplish: capture back-to-back titles. Go on and tell them it’s not possible. Last I checked, anything’s possible.

Lurking: Cleveland Cavaliers

If I’m the rest of the league I genuinely fear this team. Lebron is at the point in his career where only he can hinder himself (see: free throw shooting and unnecessary treys). The Cavs are tough, defensive-minded, strong on the glass and now armed with a legitimate threat at point guard (Mo Williams). The only thing Cavs fans should be worried about is whether or not the gold medal King James earned in Beijing sufficiently validated his status as a “global icon”. For the sake of a fan base holding on by a thread in the City that Rocks, let’s hope not.

Time’s Slippin Away: Detroit Pistons

Joe Dumars is like the schoolyard bully. He’ll push you around and talk a big game but won’t ever make a serious move. Following each of the last three underwhelming exits by his team a step short of the Finals, the Pistons GM threatened to implode the NBA’s steadiest nucleus. Yet for the fifth consecutive season the Fab Four of Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince will be running Motown. Year after year they play hard and dole out respect — on their own terms. That holier-than-thou mentality has consistently irked Dumars but not enough to actually blow the team up. You can’t have it both ways.

To Be Determined: Orlando Magic

Dwight Howard was positively dominant in the first round against Toronto last year before slipping markedly against the Pistons and ultimately ceding the role of primary big man to Chris Bosh in the Olympics. Look, that’s not to say his inevitable 25-17-7 season won’t be this year. The auxiliary guys are in place on the Magic. Jameer Nelson is a plus point guard. Rashard Lewis is a rainmaker from beyond the arc and Hedo Turkoglu has developed into a primetime performer. When Superman decides to take that next step, this is a team that will be immediately elevated to contender.

Western Conference

The Favorite: Los Angeles Lakers

Anyone who was wondering if Kobe Bryant’s reign as best player in the world had ended saw their concerns squelched in, oh about eight minutes. Those would be the last eight minutes of the gold medal game against Spain. Now Kobe has his gold along with a new front line that will feature Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum together for the first time. The West will again be stacked and nasty, but let’s not kid ourselves. Nobody will win more games than the Lakers. That, however, has nothing to do with any possible lingering effects LA may feel from the physical and psychological pounding they took from Boston in the Finals last year. Kobe can get over it, but can the same be said of Lamar Odom and Gasol? Bynum or not, these Lakers aren’t avenging last year without those two.

Lurking: New Orleans Hornets

I love this team. Love them as much as the LJ Knicks and the old Blazers. True, that’s neither here nor there but I just had to establish how much love I have for this squad. And that was before Mr. Manlove himself (aka Mr. Clutch, aka the Mercenary, aka I’ll-be-ten-times-more-valuable-in-the-playoffs-than-I-was-in-the-regular-season) James Posey signed with them. I believe Chris Paul has an excellent chance of going down as the greatest point guard to ever play the game. I believe after disposing of the team formerly known as the Mavs and tussling seven grueling games with the team of the decade (San Antonio), the Hornets will enter the ’09 postseason hardened and determined. And I believe with Posey, you can now add two wins to whatever total N’Awlins was expected to tally in the playoffs. Those are my beliefs.

Time’s Slippin Away: Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

It’s fairly simple for each of these franchises, which we’ll group together as co-founders of the new NBA Senior Circuit. The Suns have a chance if they can complete a philosophical one-eighty and become a half court, defensive team with Amare Stoudemire manning the middle. Steve Nash is still the grittiest player in the league, Shaq is still, um, kinda scary, and Grant Hill is still … alive? Wait, am I supposed to be making a case for the Suns? Hmm. Let’s talk about the Spurs. Manu Ginobili’s injury gives them a shot. Why? Because regardless, he’s not playing 100 games this year, not the way he throws his body around. Better to miss the first 20 than the last 15. And don’t forget, it’s an odd year! That’s right, 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 all concluded with Spurs championships. That means something. Just ask the skeletons of Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley.

To Be Determined: Houston Rockets

Oh the possibilities. Here we have a team whose exceptionally talented starting five consists of a legendary street-baller, a renowned throw-teammates-under-the-busser, a genetically engineered super-hooper, a fabled fan-brawler and an instigative Argentine. For the uninitiated, that would be Rafer Alston (who’s tempered the Skip 2 My Lou persona), Tracy McGrady (who finally knows how to lose a playoff series and not blame everyone else), Yao Ming (who’s now permitted to write a check), Ron Artest (who hasn’t punched anyone in the face … recently) and Luis Scola (who should never guard Artest in practice). Yep, suffice to say, the 2009 Rockets are “to be determined” until further notice.

Predicted Standings

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (61-21)

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (55-27)

3. Orlando Magic (52-30)

4. Detroit Pistons (53-29)

5. Miami Heat (48-34)

6. Toronto Rapters (46-36)

7. Philadelphia 76ers (44-38)

8. Chicago Bulls (41-41)

————————–

9. Washington Wizards (40-42)

10. Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

11. New York Knicks (35-47)

12. Milwaukee Bucks (33-49)

13. Indiana Pacers (32-50)

14. New Jersey Nets (28-54)

15. Charlotte Bobcats (20-62)

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers (64-18)

2. New Orleans Hornets (60-22)

3. Utah Jazz (55-27)

4. San Antonio Spurs (54-28)

5. Houston Rockets (53-29)

6. Portland Trail Blazers (48-34)

7. Phoenix Suns (47-35)

8. Dallas Mavericks (45-37)

——————————

9. Denver Nuggets (44-38)

10. Golden State Warriors (40-42)

11. Los Angeles Clippers (39-43)

12. Sacramento Kings (35-47)

13. Minnesota Timberwolves (33-49)

14. Oklahoma City Thunder (27-55)

15. Memphis Grizzlies (18-64)

Playoffs

First Round

Boston over Chicago; Cleveland over Philadelphia; Orlando over Toronto; Detroit over Miami

LA Lakers over Dallas; New Orleans over Phoenix; Portland over Utah; Houston over San Antonio

Conference Semifinals

Boston over Detroit; Cleveland over Orlando

LA Lakers over Houston; New Orleans over Portland

Conference Finals

Boston over Cleveland

LA Lakers over New Orleans

Finals

LA Lakers over Boston

Oct 21

3 Comments

Woulda Been: The ’08 Sox

Well it stomped and it growled after rising from the dead, made a valiant last stand on wounded hind legs … but in the end the mighty beast succumbed…

Four score minus one year ago, the Philadelphia Athletics erased an eight-run deficit to best the Cubs in the fourth game of the 1929 World Series. Almost 79 years to the date, because of what went down at Fenway Park in the fifth game of the 2008 ALCS, there are now two distinct returns to the Google search, “Red Sox greatest comeback in history”.

That, folks, is something to behold.

Face it, we were all doing something else by the middle of the seventh inning of Game 5. The TV might have been on, but the Sox were trailing by seven and the Rays had been cranking balls out of Fenway in a fashion unseen since a certain 19-8 thrashing that precipitated the other distinct return to that Google search.

The champs were cooked, and after another October rife with west coast start times and extra-inning heart-pounders, bleary Red Sox Nation was exhausted.

We had accepted — albeit begrudgingly — our fate. Just wasn’t going to happen this year. Papi was some combination of confused, frustrated (though he hates the word) and hurt. Lowell was done for the season. Ellsbury had lost it. Beckett was obviously pitching through a nearly or completely torn oblique muscle. Dice-K and Lester simply couldn’t shoulder all the weight being thrust upon them by Beckett. The old war horses, Varitek and Wakefield, were guaranteed disasters any time their number was called.

With seven outs before the final bell of the ’08 season, in a seven-run — 7-0!! — game, the most promising post-title Red Sox campaign since pre-World War I was going up in smoke. Check that, was engulfed in flames. It was painful and angering to watch them go down like that, in their house, but understandable given the odds they faced.

Wasn’t our year…

Then, just as that notion was settling into the heads of Nationers far and wide, the Fenway magic found its way back. For everyone in the place, while it may have once again come out of nowhere, the disappearing act the Sox pulled was nothing new. It was the Rays who had little idea that the trick itself — the Red Sox making imminent defeat vanish — was an old habit of this team within the confines of this funky ballyard.

It began with Trot Nixon in 2003, when the Moneyball A’s couldn’t seal the deal in Game 3 of the ALDS, and Nixon made them pay with an 11th inning shot that helped prolong a season.

With that stroke and the formal reverse sweep that followed, a franchise whose losing had been nothing short of Shakespearean for 85 years established a new calling card: the Comeback card. It was a card the hardened Sox would play again in ’04, with Ortiz, Schilling and Lowe leading the way to salvation. Then it reappeared in ’07, this time in the form of Drew, Beckett, Pedroia and Papelbon.

That it happened once more was exhilarating for a city already looking ahead to the Celtics and utterly tragic for another wide-eyed and shell-shocked opponent. That Beckett channeled Schilling in a gutsy, palpably painful Game 6 (is there any other such thing for the Sox in the ALCS?) to force a winner-take-all (Red Sox translation: It’s already over) Game 7 is equal parts inspiring and unbelievable.

Let’s give credit where credit is due, though. Those upstart Rays, who likely believed the Devil had gotten back into them after Games 5 and 6, hunkered down and squared up this new incarnation of Red Sox mystique. They did what the Yankees and Indians could not. They stared down and defeated the incomprehensible force.

Wasn’t our year…

But wait. Had Game 5 gone by the wayside and the final entry in the ’08 Red Sox log had read, “Swept three straight at Fenway, out in five in ALCS”, discontent would have briefly ruled the airwaves and journals in Beantown, but rational thought would have ultimately prevailed.

That’s not what happened though. Game 5 wasn’t the final fizzle of a fatigued, broken down and fragmented contingent. It turned into an epic display of resilience and a reassertion of an otherwise farcical and cliched mentality (“Never say die”) that desperate teams adopt in their darkest hour. The Sox, on the other hand, simply breathe life into the fiction. Since Nixon’s walkoff, they are 12-3 in elimination games.

In a town like Boston, second-guessing after a major sports loss is like familial beef during the holidays: No matter what, it’s gonna happen. The question is whether or not it’s unfounded.

Sure, questions about the makeup and drive of the team would have dominated had they gone out in a five-game whimper. Slowly, however, the masses would’ve realized that the climb out of a huge hole in a league championship series is actually less challenging than attempting to win in the ruthless month of October as a team in tatters.

Yet here we are, just a few million New England heartbeats removed from almost experiencing both.

Now there’s a cause for discontent. Between 2003 and this year, the Nation knows all too well how minute the difference can be between winning and losing a decisive game. Against the Yankees in 2003, the faithful will always rightfully believe that sure triumph was snatched away by a man who never picked up a bat and rarely touched the ball, save for when he was passing it from one pitcher to the next.

Versus the Rays, victory was just as close and it was taken just as unceremoniously. Except this time it was the general manager, not the manager, who made the strategic gaffe. And this time it was during the season, not at the climax of the penultimate series, that the fatal move was executed. You know where I’m going with this.

It must be pointed out that Manny Ramirez just completed the greatest individual postseason in the history of baseball. He reached base in 24 of his 36 at-bats, slugged four homers, knocked in 10 runs and compiled a 1.747 OPS. His .520 average, .667 on-base percentage and mind-blowing OPS were all records. (By my unofficial count there were 10 teams in 2008 whose top two hitters didn’t have a combined OPS of 1.747.)

Now I hate to break the news to you, but Manny didn’t do that because he hates Boston. He didn’t do it (solely) because he desires one last monster contract. He may have morphed into the puppet of Scott Boras off the field and to the media, but between the lines Manny will always be mashing Manny. He logged the most impressive October all-time because he’s maybe the greatest October hitter in the history of baseball.

Not coincidentally, his best work has come in the seven league championship series’ he’s participated in (.340/.451/12 homers/30 RBIs in 44 games), making him undeniably the greatest LCS hitter ever. And not surprisingly, the pennant round of the playoffs has been the deciding series of every significant Sox playoff run.

Second-guessing is second nature in Boston, so chew on this. In Game 7 the Red Sox were given a glimmer of hope down 3-1 in the top of the eighth inning when Jason Bartlett booted a grounder off the bat of Alex Cora. A Coco Crisp single and Dustin Pedroia fly out had runners on first and second with one out. Papi was up.

(One quick tangent: There’s no doubt Ortiz has physically been a shell of himself this year, but it’s impossible to quantify the psychological effect Manny’s absence has had on the man we used to call Senor Octubre. Think about it. Every time he stepped to the plate for the better part of six years, he saw in his periphery one of the three best right-handed hitters in the history of the game swinging a fungo bat and stretching out his guns. It wasn’t only the opposition mulling over this dire reality. Manny’s presence unequivocally fueled Papi. The alternative argument is who’s to say what a fully healthy Ortiz would have produced down the stretch and into the playoffs — sans Manny — but let’s be real. He would’ve stood a much greater chance if his bash brother was chilling in the on-deck circle waiting to pick him up when necessary.)

So just like ’03 and ’04, the fate of the Red Sox rested on the broad shoulders of David Ortiz. He grounded out. Youkilis walked. Drew struck out. And for all intents and purposes the season was finished.

Anyone who believes that Manny wouldn’t have smoked a screamer into the gap and won the pennant, or that Ortiz, feeling wholly confident and focused, wouldn’t have again assumed the role of hero has no sense of history. Or chemistry for that matter.

The claim in July was that Manny had poisoned the clubhouse chemistry, but we’ll never know for sure. It’s pretty obvious in hindsight that the vital Papi/Manny chemistry was unilaterally removed at the trade deadline, and conspicuously absent when Theo, the trio, Tito and the Nation needed it most.

Because of that there’s about to be another offseason of pondering what coulda, shoulda been in Boston had they held onto Mr. Mercurial.

Scratch that. What woulda been.

Oct 18

NFL Power Poll and Week 7 Picks

Another week, another reshuffling of teams in the latest power poll. Tennessee at one is about the only thing everyone can agree on at this point in the season.

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0) Last unbeaten team standing gets top billing, that much is undisputed.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) Steelers went into their bye strong and have come out of it refreshed.

3. New York Giants (4-1) Is anyone really surprised that the Eli Manning Face made an appearance on Monday night after the talking heads started throwing around “Better than Peyton” nonsense?

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) Speaking of the elder Manning, what Peyton did to a nasty Baltimore defense last week should quell any chatter of unnecessary comparisons between siblings.

5. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) Kurt Warner’s Cards have downed Miami, Buffalo and Dallas by an aggregate 102-51 at home. Greatest Show on Roll-Out Grass?

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) 27-3 drubbing of divisional rival Carolina certainly shook things up a bit in the wide open NFC South.

7. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) Are the Cardinals really that good or are the Cowboys simply overhyped? I vote the former.

8. San Diego Chargers (3-3) Okay, pasting the Patriots may not hold as much clout as it once did but this is still the best team in the AFC West.

9. Washington Redskins (4-2) So they lost a game they were supposed to win after winning a pair they were supposed to lose. Seems like the Skins are still ahead of the curve.

10. Buffalo Bills (4-1) One thing’s for sure: the Bills are either moving up or down after this week’s bout with the Bolts.

Week 7 Picks (Home Teams in CAPS)

San Diego over BUFFALO

CHICAGO over Minnesota

Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI

Tennessee over KANSAS CITY

Dallas over ST. LOUIS

MIAMI over Baltimore

NY GIANTS over San Francisco

CAROLINA over New Orleans

HOUSTON over Detroit

NY Jets over OAKLAND

WASHINGTON over Cleveland

Indianapolis over GREEN BAY

TAMPA BAY over Seattle

Denver over NEW ENGLAND

Last Week: 10-4

Overall: 56-32

Oct 10

4 Comments

NFL Power Poll and Week 6 Picks

The Titans improved to 5-0 but ceded top billing in the poll to the defending Super Bowl champs. The NFC East, which continues to grow stronger by the week, now boasts three of the top four teams.

1. New York Giants (4-0) Sure, the G-Men may have benefited from a soft schedule but they’ve rolled through it thus far.

2. Tennessee Titans (5-0) Late rally against Baltimore was enough to maintain an unblemished mark but not sufficient to hold the top spot.

3. Washington Redskins (4-1) Having already completed road legs of divisional play, Redskins are gaining steam each week.

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-1) Allowed the pesky Bengals to sneak back into the game last week but still won going away. What’s next for the Hard Knockers?

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) Consecutive wins against divisional rival Baltimore and playoff rival Jacksonville have Pittsburgh looking downright steely again.

6. Carolina Panthers (4-1) With 34-0 thumping of Kansas City in the rearview, Panthers will look to establish early stranglehold on NFC South in Tampa Bay this week.

7. Denver Broncos (4-1) So the Broncos do have a defense. Interesting.

8. New England Patriots (3-1) Next four weeks (at San Diego, Denver, St. Louis, at Indy) will reveal a lot about the backbone of the Pats.

9. Buffalo Bills (4-1) Losing 41-17 is bad, particularly when you’re 4-0 and even if you lose your starting quarterback in the process.

10. Chicago Bears (3-2) Over the last two contests Devin Hester has caught eight balls for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Week 6 Picks (Home Teams in CAPS)

INDIANAPOLIS over Baltimore

MINNESOTA over Detroit

NEW ORLEANS over Oakland

NY JETS over Cincinnati

ATLANTA over Chicago

Carolina over TAMPA BAY

WASHINGTON over St. Louis

HOUSTON over MIAMI

Jacksonville over DENVER

Philadelphia over SAN FRANCISCO

Green Bay over SEATTLE

Dallas over ARIZONA

SAN DIEGO over New England

NY Giants over CLEVELAND

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 46-28

Oct 4

NFL Power Poll and Week 5 Picks

The mighty NFC East has decisively shifted the balance of power as all four teams are among the NFL elite. Who rounds out the top-10? Find out in the first edition of the power poll.

1. Tennessee Titans (4-0) Defense giving up league-best 11.5 points per game and offense much better suited with cool-headed Kerry Collins at the helm.

2. New York Giants (3-0) Champs took care of business before the bye.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-0) Week 2 win in Jacksonville only marquee victory but 4-0 is 4-0.

4. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) Suspect defense and selfish T.O. could spell trouble for Cowboys down the road.

5. San Diego Chargers (2-2) Bolts should be 4-0; LT getting healthier by the week.

6. Washington Redskins (3-1) Played one poor half of football (Week 1 vs. Giants) all year.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) Week 5 clash with Skins will determine if NFC East is four-team race.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) Gritty come-from-behind win vs. Ravens on MNF silenced critics … for the moment.

9. Carolina Panthers (3-1) With Steve Smith back, offense should find another gear.

10. New England Patriots (2-1) Don’t count out a Bill Belichick team just yet.

Week 5 Picks (Home teams in CAPS)

Chicago over DETROIT
San Diego over MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA over Washington
BALTIMORE over Tennessee
GREEN BAY over Atlanta
NY GIANTS over Seattle
CAROLINA over Kansas City
Indianapolis over HOUSTON
DENVER over Tampa Bay
DALLAS over Cincinnati
ARIZONA over Buffalo
New England over SAN FRANCISCO
JACKSONVILLE over Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS over Minnesota

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 37-23

Sep 29

1 Comment

MLB Playoff Preview ’08

Where would the Dodgers be without Manny Ramirez? Where would the Brewers be if they weren’t able to snag CC Sabathia? Would the Angels be 100-game winners with no Mark Teixeira?

And the survey says: 1) Below .500 in second place, 2) On the outside looking in at the Mets, 3) Probably not.

Indeed, if there’s a theme to this postseason, it’s those new faces in new places giving newfound hope to a trio of frustrated franchises.

But hold on, the Dodgers, Brewers and Angels aren’t the only clubs chasing realistic dreams of October glory.

With that in mind, let’s investigate each of the contenders.

Philadelphia Phillies (92-70, NL East Champions)

Case for an early exit The Phillies aren’t exactly, for lack of a better term, clutch. They took the NL East for the first time since 1993 last year — mainly by playing second fiddle to the Mets and their mammoth collapse — then went three and out against the Rockies in the first round. The 2008 Phillies are basically the same team with basically the same record that felt no pressure down the stretch as the Mets once again faded. And they are expected to win a short series against a squad throwing CC Sabathia twice?

Case for a deep run The three things you need to win a title — an ace, a basher and a closer — the Phillies have. Cole Hamels is as nasty as they come, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are tough outs that become even tougher in the playoffs, and Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save chances this year. The formula is there.

Verdict Out in 4 against the Brewers. Because Sabathia threw the last game of the regular season, Hamels won’t be facing him in Game 1. This puts an excess of pressure on the Phils to take the first game. And even if they do they’re likely looking at a split going back to raucous Milwaukee.

Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78, NL West Champions)

Case for an early exit An inability to score runs. The Dodgers Achilles heel the last few years has been just that. Of course sticking Manny Ramirez in the middle of that lineup has paid enormous dividends, but the fact remains that LA scored 155 fewer runs than the Cubs this year, and even with Manny they can’t match the depth of Chicago’s lineup.

Case for a deep run The ex-Sox factor. That would be Manny and Derek Lowe. If Manny continues to smash the ball and Lowe (3.34 ERA in 18 postseason appearances) shows off his abnormally large set of stones, sky’s the limit for this team. Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito at the end of games is a dynamic combo.

Verdict Out in 5 vs. the Cubs. Just a tough draw for the Dodgers. If the Mets don’t fritter away another sure playoff berth, Manny and company are headed to Philly for a much easier series. I see them splitting the first two at Wrigley before returning to Chavez Ravine for a tussle with Rich Harden. He’s not the face you want to see in a swing game, no matter what the venue.

Los Angeles Angels (100-62, AL West Champions)

Case for an early exit History. The Angels simply can’t deal with the Red Sox in October. Dating back to 1986 they’ve dropped nine straight to Boston in the playoffs. Their two biggest weapons, John Lackey and Francisco Rodriguez, have been tormented by the Sox in the postseason.

Case for a deep run F— history. Lackey was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and .132 BAA vs. Boston this year. They took eight of nine from the Sawx in the regular season. They are a far healthier team than they were last season going into the games that count. And Mark Teixeira completely changes the tenor of that lineup.

Verdict Done in 4 vs. the Red Sox. I’m just not convinced the Angels hurlers can shut down whatever lineup Boston trots out. As good as he was against the Sox this year, Lackey was putrid down the stretch (8.14 ERA and .356 BAA in four September starts). Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders simply don’t instill fear and the Angels bullpen — always one of their strengths — does not cope well with the patient Boston hitters.

Milwaukee Brewers (90-72, NL Wild Card Champions)

Case for an early exit Inexperience. We all saw what happened when the young Brewers got into a pennant race with the Cubs last year. They found that extra finishing gear this time around but that doesn’t change the fact they haven’t been to the dance since 1982. Not to mention succeeding in October requires a shift into overdrive. Is the Brew Crew going to be able to harness all that expectation and emotion?

Case for a deep run Let’s say it together: CC Sabathia. Talk about a man with purpose. In case you missed his body of work last year (AL Cy Young winner, 15 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in the playoffs), Sabathia has something to prove. As fantastic as he’s been since joining the Brewers, he isn’t getting that desired $200 million payday unless he alters the perception about his ability to carry over regular season dominance into October.

Verdict Beaten by the Cubs in 5 in the NLCS. Sabathia will single-handedly carry them into contention for a pennant. Their lineup should be able to pack enough punch to match the mighty Cubs. Two glaring reasons why they can’t compete with Chicago in a long series: 1) Ben Sheets has already proclaimed he has a “broke arm”. 2) The back end of the Brewers bullpen isn’t strong enough to make up for the loss of the staff’s second-most important arm.

Boston Red Sox (95-67, AL Wild Card Champions)

Case for an early exit Josh Beckett’s oblique strain. He’s already been pushed back to Game 3 of ALDS, and that’s tentative. Oblique strains are by nature nettlesome. They are known to hang around, and in the blink-of-an-eye postseason tournament that is October baseball, Beckett’s is of grave concern to the Red Sox. Oh and have I mentioned the team paid $7 million to dispose of its best hitter? Oh that’s right, I did.

Case for a deep run Pitching. Specifically Beckett getting healthy and joining Dice-K and Jon Lester to form the best starting trio in the American League. All have won at least one World Series game. Beckett (6-2, 1.73 ERA in nine postseason starts) is one of the greatest October fireballers the sport has ever seen. And don’t forget about Jonathan Papelbon. He’s never allowed a run in the playoffs. You read that correctly.

Verdict Beaten by the Rays in 7 in the ALCS. One game swung my feelings about this team. September 9 at Fenway. First place at stake. The Red Sox entered the ninth with a 4-3 lead and Papelbon gave it up. Instead of leapfrogging Tampa Bay and probably cruising to the division title, that was the closest Boston got. And that contest wasn’t the anomaly; it merely underscored what became the norm this year: the Rays coming from behind and stealing games from the Red Sox. What that game did determine, however, was home field advantage for this series. The Rays (57-24) were the best home team in baseball, while the Red Sox, as always, were a different team (39-42) away from Fenway Park.

Tampa Bay Rays (97-65, AL East Champions)

Case for an early exit The pressure that goes with traversing uncharted territory. We’re talking about a team that had never even finished second to last before shocking the world this year. Will the pressure finally catch up to the wildly talented, yet very young and inexperienced Rays? I’m as eager as any to find out.

Case for a deep run Home field throughout the playoffs. As mentioned above, no team was better than the Rays within the confines of their own ballpark. Throw in the fast turf that is ideally suited for the Rays, the circus rules that define Tropicana Field (catwalks are in play!), and the team’s one hardened veteran (Troy Percival) being the guy that will have the ball when nail-biters are on the line, and these upstarts formerly tabbed as Devil Dogs are going to be tough to take down.

Verdict A Game 7 loss to the Cubs in the World Series. (Did I really just write that?)

Chicago Cubs (97-64, NL Central Champions)

Case for an early exit 1910, 1929, 1945, 1998, 2003, 100 years, the Billy Goat, Steve Bartman and quite a bit else that I’m likely missing.

Case for a deep run Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija and Sweet Lou Piniella.

Verdict The stock market rights itself, pigs fly, the Red Sea parts again, Paris Hilton does gratis club appearances … and … CUBS WIN!! CUBS WIN!!!! CUBS WIN!!!!!!

Sep 27

3 Comments

NFL Week 4 Picks

A few points before picks.

1. The Chargers are one prayer and one awful call from being 3-0. Of course, they are actually 1-2, but this is a very good football team. Dating back to the playoffs last year they’ve played their last five games (at Indy, at New England, Carolina, at Denver, Jets) with limited amounts of LT and, most recently, no Shawne Merriman. They blasted the Colts, fought the 17-0 Pats tooth and nail, then carried that style of play into this season. When everything shakes out this year, San Diego will be a top-three seed in the AFC.

2. As opposed to the Chargers, their divisional rival Denver has benefited heavily from the “that’s football” adage. If Ed Hochuli doesn’t blow a monumental call and Martin Gramatica drills a very makable 41-yard field goal, the Broncos are 1-2. Instead of everyone salivating at the most prolific offense in the league, questions would be floating around about the Broncos spine (or lack thereof) and their ability to finish games. I’m just saying.

3. There was much debate over whether the Patriots needed a bye week or were better off putting the Miami disaster behind them immediately and getting right back to football. Here’s the deal. When you get “Madden 95’d” (my made up term for running the same play five times for a touchdown), you need to go back to the drawing board. In addition, when the paparazzi tailing Tom Brady thinks his backup shares a last name with an aging, alien backup point guard for the Celtics, it’s time for some adjustments to be made.

4. The NFC East is good. Really good. In my opinion this is the best division in football since the AFC East in the late 90s. Offenses that can put points on the board, defenses that pack a hurting and high caliber quarterback play. The Redskins are clearly going to play the spoiler role. Unless they take three or more divisional games, there’s a good chance we’ll be seeing three 10-plus win teams in the NFC East.

5. Speaking of the NFC East, the defending champs have looked pretty nasty — albeit against a Washington team they should beat, a horrendous St. Louis squad and the Bengals. Impressive first trio of games but not enough to convince me that the G-Men are headed for anything more than 10 wins and a third place finish. We’ll start to find out what the champs are made of beginning in Week 8, when they go at Pittsburgh, Dallas, at Philly, Baltimore. The good news is they’ll likely be 5-0 heading into the gauntlet.

6. For everyone heading to the bar Sunday to watch football, take note of the one Bills fan and one Dolphins fan in your establishment. I swear, it’s some sort of phenomenon: there are no more and no less than one of each in every sports bar in the country on any given Sunday. They fascinate me, these hardened supporters garbed in their Jim Kelly and Dan Marino jerseys. These days, with the Patriots suddenly mortal, they’ve ceased to sulk in the one corner of the bar where their game is being shown on a 12-inch flat screen. So this week, see what’s good with the one in your watering hole. Believe me, they have much to say.

Week 4 Picks (Home teams in CAPS)

TENNESSEE over Minnesota
NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE over Houston
San Diego over OAKLAND
DALLAS over Washington
Denver over KANSAS CITY
NY JETS over Arizona
CAROLINA over Atlanta
Cleveland over CINCINNATI
Buffalo over ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia over CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 28-19